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Natural HazardsRisk Mapping in Sweden
ISDR
Barbro Näslund-LandenmarkEcologist, Senior advisor
Swedish Rescue Services AgencyDepartment of emergency prevention
Section for environment, planning and building
Hazard and categories
• Hazard - ”a potentially damaging physical event that maycause loss of life or injury, property damage, social and economic disruption or environmental degradation”. ISDR, Hyogo Framework for Action
• Categories:
Small scale loss event, 1-9 deathsModerate loss event, 10-19Severe catastrophe, > 20Major catastrophe, > 100Devastating catastrophe, > 500Great natural catastrophe, thousands of fatalities, hundreds of thousands are left homeless
Natural hazards
• Hydrometeorologicalwindfloodprecipitationdroughtthunder
• Geologicalearthquakevulcanolandslideerosion
• Biologicalepidemics
No of Great Natural Hazards 1950-2006
Source:Munich Re2006
Natural Hazards and Disaster Events in Sweden
• Windstorms – heavy winter storms - hurricanes• Flash floods and flood inundations• Landslides• Forest fires• Snowstorms
Hurricane”Gudrun”
• 8-9 Jan 2005
• Wind speed up to 35-40 m/s
• 75 million m3 fallen timber
• 20 fatalities (severe)
• Economic losses: Ca 25 billion SEK
Temporary storages of timber
Flash Flood - Fulufjället 1997
Flash Flood - Hagfors 2004
Flood Inundation - Arvika 2000
Completely destroyed
Landslide - Göta river valley Tuve 1977
• Quick Clay soil• Sensitive to
vibrations and reduction in salt content
• 9 fatalities
Landslide - Road E6 in Munkedal 2006
SNOWSTORM
Gävle 1998
• 150 cm snow layer after three days of snowing
• Total interruption of transportation, etc
FOREST FIRES
Boden 2006
• Largest documentedforest fire ever in Sweden
• No rain in July
• 1700 hectares
• Fire fighting duringfour weeks
• ACTUAL RISK of fire = static status+dynamicstatus
• Static: vegetation, topography, biomass, earlier climate etc
• Dynamic: actualweather/prognosis in near time of wind, precipitation, vegetation etc
Swedish forest and grassland fireprognosis system
• Prognosis system at the website of the SRSA, running from april - october
• Menu-system- functions- maps- prognosis- data
• Search function• Links to connecting sites and authorities, e.g. SMHI
European Forest Fire Information System -EFFIS
Municipal Level –Risk management Landuse planning
Regional LevelSupervision Fire and Rescue ServicesReferral for consideration for Land use
planning
National LevelSupervision Civil Protection ActSupervision Environmental Act
Supervision Planning and Building Act
SRSA’s Preventive work towards natural disasters
• General Stability Maps
• General Flood Inundation Maps
• Governmental Subsidies for preventive measurestowards landslides and floodings
• Research and development
• Cooperation – on national and international levels, EU and UN
• Information, Education and Training
• River Coordination groups
• Database Natural Disasters – Lessons Learned
General Stability Maps, within build up areas
• Governmental commission for SRSA since 1986• Areas at risk for landslides, 3 zones with subzonation• Covering Sweden• Basic data for municipality risk assessment
General Flood Inundation Map
• 56 rivers covered
General Flood Inundation Maps
• Areas at risk of floodings are mapped along rivers• Governmental commission for SRSA since 1998• Approx 10% of Swedens rivers will be mapped, priority for
10 000 km, based on identified risks and passed events• 80% are mapped today• Two discharges are calculated
- 100 year flood and - Highest estimated flood according to the guidelines of
Swedish Flood Committe, approx 10 000-year flood• Hydraulic model• Report and GIS-data
General Stability and Flood Inundation Maps
Fields of application
• Basic data for municipality risk assessment
• General landuse planning
• Overall planning of fire & rescue service work
• Detailed survey– permanent preventive measures
• Response action
• Hydraulic model– calculation of currentwaterlevels and discharges for the ongoing event
Protected Area for Ground Water Supplyat risk of flooding
180 km roads at risk of flooding
256
681
767
256
681
Important buildings at risk of flooding i.e. Town hall and ABB Main Office
a tan
Söd ra R
in g vägen
Sl ot ts ga ta n
S tora G a ta n
Ka
rl sg a ta n
st ra Rin gv äg en
Eng
e lb r
e é s t ige n
M unkg atan
Sture g atan
gata n
U ta nby gatan
S m edje gatan
Käl lga tan
Ös te rm a lm s ga tan
tan
K u ngsg
ata n
H a ntve rk ar ga ta n
tan
Nyg
atan
T im m erm ans ga tanF
i sk a
rtor
get
He r
epparb ack en
S tor a To rget
maka rga tan
a G a ta n
Kar ls ga tan
N yg a ta n
S tora G a ta nK
o p pa rb e r gs v äg e n
~1000 residents in 22 buildingsat risk of flooding
River Coordination Groups
• SRSA commissioned to initiateestablishment of river coordinationgroups within Sweden
• Watershed based
• County Administrative Board task to convene, chair of the group
• Meetings, Seminars and Workshops
• Spring Flood
• SRSA called in when required
• Members; F&R services, landuseplanners, Environmental sector, National Road Administration, National RailroadAdministration, Water RegulationEnterprises, SMHI, etc
Governmental Subsidies
• Municipalities can apply
• 40 MSEK/year, 4 M Euro or 5,7 M $
• 2006: approx 25 municipalities applied, applicationsexceeded 6 times available amount of money
• Commission for SRSA in cooperation with national expert authorities
Permanent mitigation
Permanent mitigation
Permanent mitigationexcavation and erosionshelter
Permanent mitigation – soil nailing
Non permanent mitigation- non permanent barriers in depots
Changes in returnperiod of 100 yearflood, 2071-2100. Applied on rivers
covered with General Flood
Inundation maps
Climate Change and Vulnerability
Karlstad worst casescenario
2071-2100