References:

Jackson, N. O., and Pawar, S. (2013). A Demographic Accounting Model for New Zealand. Nga Tangata Oho

Mairangi: Regional Impacts of Demographic and Economic Change – 2013-2014. MBIE-funded project. ,

Hamilton, New Zealand: National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis, University of Waikato.

Age and Ethnic Structure

Figure 7: Age Structure: Taranaki Region, European and Māori 2001 (unshaded bars) and 2013 (shaded bars)

Taranaki has New Zea-

land’s sixth-oldest Re-

gional population, but—

as elsewhere—the popu-

lation of European origin

is relatively old, and the

population of Māori

origin, extremely young.

Summary

The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly

over the past 27 years, from 107,499 in 1986 to 109,700

in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent). The popu-

lation is projected to grow slowly over the next two dec-

ades with the Statistics New Zealand medium series pro-

jections indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031.

However numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high

series) or as low as 97,750 (low series).

The major cause of the region’s growth is natural increase,

with net migration loss occurring across most of the

1990s and 2000s, but decreasingly so. Increasingly,

‘natural increase’ will be driven by growth at 65+ years, as

the baby boomer cohorts move into these age groups and

numbers rise due to increasing longevity. Eventually the

same cohorts will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths

will increase and will not be replaced by births.

The Taranaki Region experiences an on

going problem in terms of net migra-

tion loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age;

however that loss has reduced over the

past three Census periods.

Net migration gains at younger and several older ages par-

tially offset that loss, but are not perfect substitutes because

the sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over time

to reduce the primary reproductive age group (20-39

years), and thus the number of children. The trends have

resulted in the Taranaki Region having the sixth-oldest pop-

ulation of New Zealand’s 16 regions, albeit the region is not

ageing as fast as many.

Mover and stayer data indicate that between 71 and 76 per

cent of those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region

on Census night at the past four Censuses had been living

there 5 years previously. Auckland has increasingly provid-

ed the region’s largest gains of internal migrants, followed

by Manawatu-Wanganui, Waikato and Wellington. The

same regions feature as the main destinations for Tarana-

ki’s leavers, but Manawatu-Wanganui has twice beaten

Auckland as the largest recipient.

The Taranaki Region has a slightly greater proportion Ma ori

than the national average, and a smaller proportion of those

of Pacific Island, Asian, or Middle Eastern/Latin Ameri-

can/African origin. The relative youth of the region’s Ma ori

population has the potential to bestow an economic ad-

vantage as population ageing proceeds, as the older Europe-

an population disproportionately enters retirement, and the

number of youthful labour force entrants declines.

With 16.1 per cent aged 65+ years in 2013, the population of the Taranaki Region is New Zealand’s sixth-oldest (of 16

regions; nationally 14.2 per cent is aged 65+ years). However age structures differ markedly by ethnic group. Figure 7

compares the age structures of the Taranaki Region’s European and Ma ori populations*, which account for 76 and 15 per

cent of the total (compared with 65 and 13 per cent nationally—note that these data are based on multiple count

ethnicity and thus sum to more than 100 per cent). In 2013 the median age for the region’s Ma ori population was 23.6

years (that is, one-half of the Ma ori population was aged less than 24 years), compared with 41.1 years for those of

European origin. The graphs also show how each population has aged structurally since 2001 (unshaded bars), due to

the demographic changes already discussed. The Taranaki Region is somewhat less multi-ethnic than is the case

nationally, with just 1.4 per cent Pacific Island, 3.0 per cent Asian, 0.4 per cent Middle Eastern/Latin American/African,

and 4.5 per cent ‘not identified’, compared with 6.3, 10.1, 1.0 and 4.9 per cent respectively at national level.

Notes: *Statistics New Zealand's Multiple Count method of enumeration means that people may be counted in more than one ethnic group

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Area of Usual Residence (2001, 2006 and 2013) and Ethnic Group (Total Responses) by Age (Five Year Groups) and Sex For the census

usually resident population count

7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

Percentage at each age group

Age

Gro

up

(ye

ars

)

European

Mal

es

Fem

ales

7.0 5.0 3.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 5.0 7.0

0-4 5-9

10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84

85+

Percentage at each age group

Age

Gro

up

(y

ea

rs)

Mäori

Mal

es

Fem

ales

Taranaki Region Population Size and Growth Inside this issue:

Components of Change by

2

Migration by Age 2

Taranaki’s Movers and Stayers

3

Population Ageing 3

Age and Ethnic Structure

4

Summary 4

National Institute of

Demographic and

Economic Analysis

(NIDEA)

Faculty of Arts & Social

Sciences,

University of Waikato

Private Bag 3105

Hamilton 3240,

New Zealand

Phone:

07 838 4040

E-mail:

nidea@waikato.ac.nz

ISSN 2382-039X (Print) ISSN 2382-0403 (Online)

T A R A N A K I R E G I O N – K E Y D E M O G R A P H I C T R E N D S 2 0 1 3 - 2 0 6 3

Natalie Jackson

The population of the Taranaki Region has grown slowly over the past 27 years, from

107,499 in 1986 to 109,700 in 2011 and 110,500 in 2013 (+2.8 per cent), albeit

experiencing a period of decline between 1996 and 2001 (Figure 1). The population is

projected to grow slowly over the next two decades with the Statistics New Zealand medium

series projections (2006-base) indicating a population of 111,460 by 2031. However

numbers could range as high as 125,500 (high series) or as low as 97,750 (low series).

The major component of the Taranaki

Region’s population growth has long been

natural increase (the difference

between births and deaths) (Figure 2).

Significant net migration loss occurred

across most of the 1990s and to a lesser

extent across the 2000s, with that loss

completely offsetting natural increase

across the period 1996-2001 and

explaining the overall decline. Although the

region’s natural increase experienced a

small rise over the mid–to late-2000s (as

elsewhere in New Zealand), this

component of growth is steadily reducing

as the population ages and larger

proportions reach the age at which they

have completed childbearing.

Components of Change

NIDEA Demographic Snapshot No. 6 Taranaki Region, June 2014

Figure 1: Population of Taranaki Region 1986-2011 and projected to 2031

Figure 2: Components of change: Taranaki Region

Source: Compiled from Statistics New Zealand, Infoshare

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

-

500

1,000

1,500

19

92

19

92

-9

3

19

93

-9

4

19

94

-9

5

19

95

-9

6

19

96

-9

7

19

97

-9

8

19

98

-9

9

19

99

-2

00

0

20

00

-0

1

20

01

-0

2

20

02

-0

3

20

03

-0

4

20

04

-0

5

20

05

-0

6

20

06

-0

7

20

07

-0

8

20

08

-0

9

20

09

-1

0

20

10

-1

1

20

11

-1

2

20

12

-1

3

Taranaki REGION

Nu

mb

er

Natural Increase Estimated Net Migration Net Change

June YearsMarch Years

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)

107,499

109,700

125,500

111,460

97,750

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Num

ber

Observed (ERP) High Medium Low

Page 2 N IDEA Demog r aph i c Snap sho t No . 6 Ta r anak i R e g i o n , J u ne 2014

Components of Change by Component Flow

Using New Zealand’s first ‘demographic accounting model’ (Jackson & Pawar 2013), the broad components of the Taranaki Region’s population change can be broken down to give an approximation of their underlying flows. Figure 3 shows that between 2008 and 2013, the Taranaki Region grew by approximately 3,000 persons (+2.8 per cent). Natural increase (births minus deaths) accounted for 3,177 persons, slightly reduced by an estimated net migration loss of 177 persons. The natural increase component was in turn comprised of 7,835 births partially offset by 4,658 deaths. From estimated net migration (-177) we then account for ‘known’ net migration (-1,029), comprised of net internal migration (-237) and net international permanent/long term (PLT) migration (-792). This leaves an unaccounted for component of

migration, which we call the ‘residual’ component (+852 people enumerated as having moved to the region between 2008 and 2013, but their 2008 origin is unknown). The model further disaggregates each known net migration component into its respective inflows and outflows (8,517 internal immigrants and 8,754 internal emigrants; 6,067 PLT international immigrants and 6,859 PLT international emigrants). As for most regions, the overall picture is one of considerable ‘churn’, generated by large numbers of leavers and arrivals relative to the net outcome. Data for the 1996-2001 and 2001-2006 periods are available on request from NIDEA.

Figure 3: Components Flows—Taranaki Region 2008-2013

Migration by Age

Figure 4: Net migration by age — Taranaki Region 1996-2001, 2001-2006 and 2008-2013

Start 107,500 110,500 End

7,835 +261.2% 4,658 -155.3%

-7.9% -26.4%

+8,517 +283.9% -8,754 -291.8% +6,067 +202.2% -6,859 -228.6%

Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources

NET CHANGE in Estimated Population

(ERP2008 - ERP2013)

+3,000 +2.8%

NATURAL INCREASE(Births - Deaths) +

ESTIMATED NET MIGRATION

+3,177 +105.9% -177 -5.9%

Births DeathsNET KNOWN MIGRATION

(Net Internal Migration + Net PLT Migration)

Residual Component of MigrationEstimated Net Migration - Net Known Migration)

-1,029 -34.3% +852 +28.4%

Internal In-migrants Internal Out-migrants PLT Arrivals PLT Departures

Net Internal Migration Net PLT Migration

-237 -792+

- -

-

+

- -

-

Between 2008 and 2013, the

Taranaki Region grew by 3,000

persons, all of which was ac-

counted for by natural increase.

Figure 4 shows that the Taranaki Region’s overall net migration loss between 2008 and 2013 was largely accounted for by those at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age; however loss at these ages has reduced quite systematically over the last three Census periods. Across the 2001-2006 and 2008-2013 periods, small net gains occurred at 0-9 years, and larger gains at 25-39 years, indicating the net arrival of young adults/parents and children (note that these data have allowed for change in cohort size). Between 2008 and 2013 there was also a small increase in net migration gain at 60-89 years, indicating the increasing arrival of retirees. The underlying data show that most age groups saw both internal and international arrivals and departures, with around half of the 2008-2013 net gain at 30-34 and 60-69 years being of international migrants.

Source: Jackson & Pawar (2013)/Statistics New Zealand various sources

-3,000

-2,500

-2,000

-1,500

-1,000

-500

0

500

1,000

0-4

5-9

10-

14

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

75-

79

80-

84

85-

89

90+

Nu

mb

er

Age Group

1996-2001

2001-2006

2008-2013

Page 3 Ta r anak i R e g i o n – k e y d emog r aph i c t r e nd s

N IDEA Demog r aph i c Snap sho t No . 6 Ta r anak i R e g i o n , J u ne 2014

Data from the 2013 Census indicate that 71 per cent of those enumerated as living in the Taranaki Region on Census night 2013 (March 5th) had been living there in 2008, similar to the proportion at the 2006 Census but lower than in 1996 and 2001 (76 per cent). At the 2013 Census, those who had not been born in 2008 accounted for the single largest component of arrivals (accounting for 7.2 per cent of the 2013 population), followed by those who had been living elsewhere in New Zealand but not further defined (5.0 per cent). The next largest contingents were those who had been overseas in 2008 and those who did not state where they had been living (4.6 per cent each). Internally, the next largest contributions came from Auckland, Manawatu-Wanganui, the Waikato and Wellington.

Leavers: The data for those who had been living in the Taranaki Region in 2008 but were living elsewhere at the 2013 Census show marked similarity to the main regions of origin, the single-largest proportions of leavers having gone to Auckland, Wellington, Manawatu-Wanganui, followed by Waikato.

Perhaps the most interesting observation from these data is that the patterns have been remarkably consistent over the past four Censuses, the regions of origin and destination of Taranaki’s internal migrants remaining almost identical over time, although in both 1996 and 2006 Manawatu-Wanganui out-performed Auckland as the main region of destination.

Population Ageing

Figure 5: Taranki’s Movers and Stayers 2008-2013

As elsewhere, declining birth rates, increasing longevity, and—in Taranaki’s case—net migration loss at 15-24 years, are causing the population to age structurally. Currently, the Taranaki Region has the sixth oldest age structure of New Zealand’s 16 regions, but it is not ageing as fast as some; in 2006 it had the second oldest age structure. The New Plymouth and Stratford Districts are slightly older (17 per cent aged 65+ years), and South Taranaki slightly younger (15.3 per cent aged 65+ years). At regional level, all age groups below 65 years are projected to decline in size across the period 2011-2031, and those at 65+ years to increase (Figure 6). By 2031, 26.2 per cent of the population of the Taranaki Region is projected to be aged 65+ years, up from 16.1 per cent in 2011. The Taranaki Region and Stratford District can expect to have more elderly than children by 2021, around five years earlier than for total New Zealand, while this will occur for New Plymouth a little earlier, around 2016, and not until 2026 for South Taranaki.

Figure 6: Projected change (numbers) 2011-2031 by broad age group

Taranaki’s Movers and Stayers

The past four censuses in-

dicate that between 71 and

76 per cent of people enu-

merated as living in the

Taranaki Region at each

Census had been living in

the Region five years previ-

ously .

ource: Jackson,

Source: Statistics New Zealand, Subnational Population Projections by Age and Sex, 2006(base)-2031 (October 2012 update)

-40.0

-20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

120.0

Taranaki Region New Zealand

Perc

enta

ge C

hang

e, 2

011

-203

1

0-14 years

15-24 years

25-39 years

40-54 years

55-64 years

65-74 years

75-84 years

85+ years