naval research laboratory marine meteorology division monterey, california
TRANSCRIPT
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYNAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISIONMARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION
Monterey, CaliforniaMonterey, California
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYNAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
• OverviewOverview (Ted Tsui) (Ted Tsui)
• Data Assimilation (Jim Goerss)Data Assimilation (Jim Goerss)
• Modeling (Jim Doyle)Modeling (Jim Doyle)
• On Scene (John Cook)On Scene (John Cook)
• Satellite Applications (Jeff Hawkins)Satellite Applications (Jeff Hawkins)
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil
The Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) is the Department of the Navy’s corporate laboratory; it is under the Chief of Naval Research and receives base funding from the Office of Naval Research (ONR).
Meteorology and oceanography were integrated into NRL in 1992 with the merger of smaller laboratories in Monterey and Mississippi into the much larger NRL in Washington DC.
SECRETARY OF THE NAVY
Assistant Secretary of the Navy (Research, Development, Acquisition)
CHIEF OF NAVAL RESEARCH / ONR
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
3300 people
NRL was suggested by Thomas Edison and commissioned by Congress in 1923. NRL has a long history of conducting pioneering research and advancing technology directed toward maritime applications.
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
Six Divisions performing scientific and technological research and development from the bottom of the sea floor to the top of the atmosphere.
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60 70 80 90 100 110 120Transmission Loss (dB ref 1 m)
Flat Surface with Bubbles
Marine Geosciences
Acoustics
Oceanography
Marine Meteorology
Remote Sensing
Space Sciences
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY
To understand and simulate the behavior of the atmosphere on local, regional, and global scales, including its interaction with the ocean, land and cryosphere…
To apply that knowledge to the development and implementation of objective analysis and prediction systems and automated weather interpretation systems for Navy/DoD users …
To study the effect of atmospheric conditions on Navy weapons systems and provide meteorological data support for input to tactical decision aids…
Our Division’s Mission
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY MARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISIONMARINE METEOROLOGY DIVISION
…Meeting identified and anticipated Navy needs.
Ph.D.M.S.B.S.Techs
Government Research Staff 2/3 Ph.D., 1/3 M.S.
50 Meteorologists 6 Physicists 2 Physical Scientists 1 Mathematician 3 Computer Scientists 2 Oceanographers (one 7300) 2 Military METOC
Visiting Research Staff On-Site Contractor Staff
4 Postdoctoral Fellows, 4 Long-term Visiting Scientists
6 IT Support Professionals 5 Computer Scientists 8 Met/Ocean/Physics Scientists
90-100 Total Staff On-Site at Any One Time
Marine Meteorology Division Marine Meteorology Division Research StaffResearch Staff
900+ yrs experience in NWP!
200+ yrs in Remote Sensing!
Observations
BC, IC
NOGAPS/NAAPS •Global coverage•Meso- to synoptic scale•1–5d guidance (-10d
ensmbl)
NOGAPS/NAAPS •Global coverage•Meso- to synoptic scale•1–5d guidance (-10d
ensmbl)
4D Cube
TDAsTarget
Local Environmental Characterization Local Environmental Characterization Requires a Telescoping StrategyRequires a Telescoping Strategy
4D Cube
TDAsTarget
On-Scene Obs
Radar
Satellite
4D Cube
TDAsTarget
Local Model Output
Through The Sensor
NOWCAST•Real-time, automatic, data fusion•Warfighter time & space
requirements (0-6h, rapid update)
•Common situational awareness
NOWCAST•Real-time, automatic, data fusion•Warfighter time & space
requirements (0-6h, rapid update)
•Common situational awareness
Data FusionAI
Nowcast
COAMPS-OS™•On-scene Data Assimilation
system•Tactical scale/local coverage•1-12h data assimilation cycle•Anytime, anywhere
COAMPS-OS™•On-scene Data Assimilation
system•Tactical scale/local coverage•1-12h data assimilation cycle•Anytime, anywhere
On-Scene Obs
COAMPS™ and COAMPS-OS™ are trademarks of the Naval Research Laboratory.
COAMPS™/”COAAMPS”•Nested regional coverage•Nonhydrostatic scale•0-72h forecaster guidance
COAMPS™/”COAAMPS”•Nested regional coverage•Nonhydrostatic scale•0-72h forecaster guidance
Down-scale Nesting
NRL 7500 CORE SYSTEMSNRL 7500 CORE SYSTEMS
Increase understanding ofatmospheric phenomena
Basic Res
Transition mission-relevant products for the
warfighterTo Ops
NOGAPSNOGAPS
NAAPSNAAPS
NAVDASNAVDAS
COAMPSCOAMPS®®
On-SceneOn-Scene
Satellite Satellite
Develop Core
Systems
Applied Res
TAWSATCFATCF
TDAs
Operational Weather Centers
FNMOC, NAVO, Naval Regional Centers
JTWC; NOAA CPHC & TPC
AFWA; AFCCC
NCEP (EMC, CPC, AWC)
NWS Forecast Offices (various)
Other Agencies
Federal Aviation Administration
Flight Safety Foundation
NOAA National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service
San Diego Supercomputer Center
National Imagery and Mapping Center
Office of the Federal Coordinator for Meteorology
Defense Threat Reduction Agency
Central Intelligence Agency
National Field Experiments
ADAM – Asian Dust Above Monterey (2003)
SWADE - Surface Wave Dynamic Experiment
CBLAST - Coupled Boundary Layer/Air-Sea Transfer
DYCOMS II – Dynamics and Chemistry of Marine Stratocumulus Phase II
WALLOPS 2000 - Wallops Island Propagation Experiment
KWAJEX – Kwajalein Experiment
CALJET - California Landfalling Jets Experiment
CAMEX - Convection and Moisture Experiment
PACJET - Pacific Landfalling Jets Experiment
COSAT - COAMPS Operational Satellite and Aircraft Test
VOCAR - Variability of Coastal Atmospheric Refractivity Experiment
FBE-I, FBE-J, FBE-K – Fleet Battle Experiments India, Juliet, and Kilo
Universities
Brown University
University of California San Diego/ Scripps
University of California LA
N. Carolina State University
Colorado State University
Florida State University
University of Hawaii
University of Massachusetts
Mississippi State University
University of S. Mississippi
Naval Postgraduate School
University of Nevada/DRI
University of New Mexico
State University of New York, Stonybrook
University of Oklahoma
Oregon State University
Pennsylvania State University
Rutgers University
University of Washington
University of Wisconsin
Yale University
Laboratories
Federally Funded R&D Centers
NCAR, JPL, Lincoln Lab,
Lawrence Livermore, Los Alamos, Argonne
NOAA Environmental Laboratories
AL, AOML, ETL, FSL, GFDL, NSSL, PMEL
NASA Goddard, NASA AMES
Air Force Research Laboratory
Army Research Laboratory
Army Topographic Engineering Center
Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab
SPAWAR Systems Center
Other DOD
Naval Warfare Development Command
Naval War College
Naval Surface Warfare Center, Dahlgren
Naval Air Warfare Center, Pt. Mugu
Naval Strike Warfare Center, Fallon
Naval Professional Development Center
Air Force Technical Applications Center
U.S. Strategic Command
USAF Weapons School
Air Combat Command
National Interagency Programs
USWRP - US Weather Research Program
WRF – Weather and Research Forecast model
JCSDA – Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
Marine Meteorology Division National Collaborations (1999-2003)
Marine Meteorology Division National Collaborations (1999-2003)
Marine Meteorology Division International Collaborations (1999-2003)
Marine Meteorology Division International Collaborations (1999-2003)
UniversitiesUniversity of W. Australia
University of Bremen
University of L’Aquila
University of Leeds
Universidad Polytecnica de Madrid
University of Lisbon
University of Manchester
University of Munich
University of Paris VI
University of Reading
University of Quebec at Montreal
University of Rome “La Sapienza”
Seoul National University
Stockholm University
University of Stuttgart
National Taiwan University
University of Warsaw
Yonsei University
Operational Weather CentersEuropean Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts
United Kingdom Meteorological Office
Meteorological Service of Canada
Meteo-France
Taiwan Central Weather Bureau
The Netherlands Weather Service (KNMI)
Korean Meteorological Agency
Navy Meteorology and Oceanography Centers
Japan, Spain, Bahrain
Other AgenciesEnvironment Canada
Ministry of Defence, UK
National Environmental Research Institute, Denmark
TNO Defence Research, Netherlands
EUMETSAT
EURAINSAT
DLR – German Aerospace Center
World Meteorological Organization
Thales Inc., UK
Eva Airways Corp., Taiwan
International Field ProgramsFASTEX -- Fronts and Atlantic Storms Experiment (1997)
LABSEA -- Labrador Sea Experiment (1997)
NORPEX -- North Pacific Experiment (1998)
MAP -- Mesoscale Alpine Experiment (1999)
ACE-ASIA – Asian Pacific Regional Aerosol Characterization Experiment (2001)
ITCT-2K2 –Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation Experiment (2002)
THORPEX -- The Hemispheric Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (2003-- )
DOTSTAR – Typhoon surveillance dropsonde missions (2004-)
LaboratoriesConsiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (Italy)
Instituto de Fisica dell “Atmosfera’ (Italy)
Johannes Gutenberg Institut (Germany)
Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, (Australia)
Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique (France)
Center for Geologic Data Studies (Russia)
Institue of Oceanology, Polska Akademia Nauk (Poland)
Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modeling (Poland)
National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan)
National Environmental Research Institute (Denmark)
Selected Research HighlightsSelected Research Highlights
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYNAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYMarine Meteorology DivisionMarine Meteorology Division
NOGAPS Transitions Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
NOGAPS Transitions Improvements to Tropical Cyclone Forecasts
FloydFloyd Sortie Cost: Sortie Cost: $7.7 Million$7.7 Million
Total Cost to CINCLANTFLT Total Cost to CINCLANTFLT
due to Floyd: due to Floyd: $17.2 Million$17.2 Million
DennisDennis Sortie Cost Avoided: Sortie Cost Avoided: $6.2 Million$6.2 Million
IreneIrene Sortie Cost Avoided: Sortie Cost Avoided: $7.4 Million$7.4 Million
FloydFloyd Sortie Cost: Sortie Cost: $7.7 Million$7.7 Million
Total Cost to CINCLANTFLT Total Cost to CINCLANTFLT
due to Floyd: due to Floyd: $17.2 Million$17.2 Million
DennisDennis Sortie Cost Avoided: Sortie Cost Avoided: $6.2 Million$6.2 Million
IreneIrene Sortie Cost Avoided: Sortie Cost Avoided: $7.4 Million$7.4 Million
The decision to sortie ships and airplanes must be made 3-5 days in advance, which requires use of a global model (mesoscale forecasts are for <72 hrs).
New requirements (MET 03-06) want tropical cyclone forecasting skill extended out to 144 hours.
19991999
SORTIES: 18 ports, 83 ships, 1127 planes
DIVERSIONS: 169 ships
1999 Atlantic Fleet 2002 Atlantic Fleet
SORTIES: 4 ports, 12 units
DIVERSIONS: 34 ships
NOGAPS TC Forecast Track Error (nm)
Western North Pacific (3-yr Weighted Mean)
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Dis
tan
ce i
n n
m
48-hr 72-hr
NOGAPS was
“world’s best”
for 2002 Atlantic
TC season!
Marine Meteorology DivisionInvestments for the Future – SkyHigh NOGAPS
Marine Meteorology DivisionInvestments for the Future – SkyHigh NOGAPS
Extended effective time range of weather prediction skill.
Improved exploitation of satellite data (radiance assimilation, in-orbit sensor calibrations, analysis of ozone variability).
Better support for consequence assessment, defense against weapons of mass destruction, theater ballistic missile defense support, re-entry orbital prediction, reconnaissance, and non-proliferation monitoring.
Icosahedral TelescopingHexahedral
Icosahedral Thin Adaptive
NOGAPS-Next GenerationNOGAPS-Next Generation Spectral Element GridSpectral Element Grid
Improved efficiency on massively parallel computers
Potential for unified global/mesoscale model
No “pole” problem
Has interest from other NWP centers
New Dynamic Core
High Resolution COAMPS® Potential Cost Savings from Improved Aviation Weather
High Resolution COAMPS® Potential Cost Savings from Improved Aviation Weather
Data provided by LCDR Cantu, NPS, 2001
Weather related flight mishaps accounted for 95 deaths and $663 million in damage during FY90-98.
56% of weather-related mishaps were believed preventable if a perfect forecast was used. COAMPS
x=333 m
W E
UA CAT EncounterAt ~9 km
UA CAT EncounterAt ~9 km
High-resolution forecasts of weather parameters, dust, and other aerosols from COAAMPS can help improve these statistics in the future.
Turbulence calculated from COAMPS TKE (inside black areas) verified by United Airlines
encounter of CAT at 9km
Passive Tracer 16-h ForecastRelease: Site #6--DOE Building: Height: 2-m
Passive Tracer 16-h ForecastRelease: Site #6--DOE Building: Height: 2-m
Brunt-Vaisala Freq red=stable
yellow=neutral blue=unstable
Winds (streamlines) Concentration (blue contour)A B
Hei
gh
t (m
)
400
200
300
0
100
500
urbanRock Creek Park
Potomac A
Hei
gh
t (m
)400
200
300
0
100
500
B
urbanRock Creek Park
Potomac
Urban
16-h forecast valid 04 UTC 14 July 2003 2-m dosage (color) 2-m winds (arrows) Gray area = urban
5 ms-1
B
ControlA
B
A
B
Urban
Smaller footprint of high 2-m dosage for Urbandue to decrease in low-level stability, increase
in turbulent mixing, and decrease in wind speed
Impact of COAMPS® Urban ParameterizationImpact of COAMPS® Urban Parameterization
Animation by Rich Signell, NATO Undersea Research Centre
Marine Meteorology DivisionCoupled Air/Ocean Models
Marine Meteorology DivisionCoupled Air/Ocean Models
NRL high-resolution dust source database supports the COAMPS™ embedded aerosol prediction capability.
Afghanistan dust source grid fraction--9km grid
COAMPS surface winds, 9km grid 6hr forecast valid 06z 10 Oct 2001
Strong Northerly Winds
Dust optical depth, 9km grid 30hr forecast valid 06Z 10 Oct
2001
Dust eminating from source regions
Dust patterns affected by terrain and wind conditions
Navy-unique Capability
Marine Meteorology DivisionCOAMPS® Aerosol Model
Marine Meteorology DivisionCOAMPS® Aerosol Model
SeaWiFS BHR valid 0740 UTC 10 Oct 2001
COAMPS™ is a trademark of the Naval Research Laboratory
Multi-scale Aerosol Prediction
Multi-scale Aerosol Prediction
GLOBAL GLOBAL NAAPSNAAPSGLOBAL GLOBAL NAAPSNAAPS
REGIONAL REGIONAL COAMPSCOAMPSREGIONAL REGIONAL COAMPSCOAMPS
48hr Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth48hr Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth48hr Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth48hr Forecasts of Aerosol Optical Depth
“World First”
AFWA Dust Product NRL Dust Products
Detecting dust in black/white imagery often requires the skills of a seasoned analyst.
NRL has developed algorithms for dust enhancement using new sensor suites that allowed easy-to-interpret products to be automatically generated.
Satellite ApplicationsSatellite Applications New Sensors, New AlgorithmsNew Sensors, New Algorithms Satellite ApplicationsSatellite Applications
New Sensors, New AlgorithmsNew Sensors, New Algorithms
COAMPS Forecast Dust Plume
Dust Plume
Aerosol Effects on VisibilityNot Just a SW Asia Problem
Aerosol Effects on VisibilityNot Just a SW Asia Problem
Gobi Desert Dust Storms Plague East Asia
Gobi Desert Dust Storms Plague East Asia
Korea, Japan Mar 2002Korea, Japan Apr 2002Korea, Japan Apr 2002NRL Modeling and Field Programs (Asian Dust Above Monterey) have studied the characteristics of this
dust as it crosses the Pacific Ocean to the west coast of the U.S.
Only Only deepest deepest convective convective elements are elements are analyzedanalyzed
Only Only deepest deepest convective convective elements are elements are analyzedanalyzed
Cloud Top Altitudes in KilofeetCloud Top Altitudes in KilofeetCloud Top Altitudes in KilofeetCloud Top Altitudes in Kilofeet
Low Clouds Low Clouds at Nightat NightLow Clouds Low Clouds at Nightat Night
Satellite Applications Products from New Sensors
Satellite Applications Products from New Sensors
Aircraft ContrailsAircraft ContrailsAircraft ContrailsAircraft Contrails
SnowSnowSnowSnow
High CloudsHigh CloudsHigh CloudsHigh Clouds
Low CloudsLow Clouds
vs.
SmokePlume
Yemen Oil Tanker Attack: 10/06/02
Tanker
Dry Lake Beds
Dust
Dust
Benefits of Collocation
Benefits of Collocation
Research
Education Operations
Educational Opportunities
for Staff
Academic Support from
Staff
Joint PlanningShared Computational
& Data Resources
Rapid Transition of R&D
Shared Operational
Testbeds
Joint Transition Teams
Exposure of students to
broader activities
Rapid Response; Troubleshooting
Joint Projects that Leverage
Local Expertise N
U
GY
C
, C
NRL / FNMOC / NPSNRL / FNMOC / NPS
Ted TsuiTed Tsui
[email protected]@nrlmry.navy.mil
NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYNAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORYMarine Meteorology DivisionMarine Meteorology Division