navy - george mason universityc4i.gmu.edu/eventsinfo/reviews/2007/slides/may2007/edwards-c4ir… ·...
TRANSCRIPT
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N6 Way Ahead – Brief to GMU C4I Forum
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Our “Self-Talk”
We promise to accelerate the lives of today’s youth, but…
NAVYIT’S NOT JUST A JOB. IT’S AN ADVENTURE.
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Generation X
• Age: 25 - 45
• Attributes:- Lower birth rate- Relationships matter the most- Individualism is valued- Racially diverse- Self-sufficient and do not trust- Skeptical of institutions- Wary of commitment- Pessimistic about the future- More jobs created by this generation than any in history
• Also referred to as “13th Generation” • Also referred to as “Generation Y”
N6 Focus
Millennium Generation
• Age: 6 - 24
• Attributes:- Much higher birth-rate than Gen X- Optimistic- Team players- Accept authority- Follow the rules- Believe it’s “cool to be smart”- Collaborative- Believe in future – cutting edge- Technology savvy
-- Grew up with Internet
… whose lives are we accelerating?
Demographic Trends
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Navy Connectivity TrendsToday
Connectivity Trends
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DDG current bandwidth is the same as home users had in 2000
Home users are predicted to have 250 times more bandwidth than DDG and 100 times
more than CVN by 2014
Connectivity Trends (Future)
Navy has not kept pace with technology growth
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Commercial Trends
• Networking– Moore’s law – Computer processing power
doubles every 18 months– Metcalf’s Law (network value ~ f(n2)
• Connect peers (e.g. – e-mail)– Reed’s Law (network value ~ f(2n))
• Join / create groups (e.g. – “MySpace.com”)
• Technology – where industry is investing– Web services (e.g. – Online banking, travel)– Collaboration tools (e.g. - YouTube, MySpace)– IP Stack– Data Strategy– Security– Nanocomputing, Grid Computing– Wireless Technologies
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Commercial Trends – YouTube Example
Traditional Navy Online Video Navy Online Video
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Com
plex
ity a
nd E
xpec
tatio
ns
FY90FY92
FY94FY96
FY98FY00
FY02FY04
FY12FY06
FY08FY10
IT demand and complexity increases at expanded rate
Funding vs Complexity Trends
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Trend Summary
Five Years2 YearsToday
Funding
Connectivity
Technology
Manpower
• Failure to address these trends early will compound impact 5 years from now
• LNR continues• N6 does not have insight into all Navy funding
• Legacy Network reduction (LNR)
• Connectivity to Navy users levels out
• Commercial continues to increase
• Connectivity to Navy tactical users improves
• Not keeping pace
• Small Combatant lags typical home user
• Begin to field technology that’s available today
• Insignificant change from current capabilities
• Navy has fallen off pace of network technology
• Acquisition not agile
• LCS manning requires “Hybrid sailor”
• Connectivity will be key
• Downward trend continues
• Downward manpower trend
?? ?? ??
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Com
b at
Cap
abil i
ty
Time
GWOTPersistence and Agility Speed & Time
Major ConflictPower and Speed
10 30D-Day~30 yrs
C2 moves Blue Force posture left
Impact of These Trends on the Warfighter
IO moves Red Force posture right
RISK
U.S. FORCES TODAY
ADVERSARY FORCES
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Missions• MCO
- AAW- ASW- ASUW- Strike
• GWOT• MDA• Homeland Defense• TBMD• Stability Operations
• Humanitarian Assistance
• Disaster Relief• Non-Combatant Evac Ops
• Sanctions Enforcement
Commander’s Intent
Joint Task Force/Joint Force Maritime Component Commander
Battlespace Prep• Shaping• IO• Intelligence• Weather
Operational Planning & Guidance
• CONOPS• OPTASK
SituationalAwareness
• COP• TFCC• Tactical Decision Aids
Assessment• Task satisfaction• BDA
These trends can greatly speed up this cycle – for us and our adversaries
Impact of These Trends on Warfighter
Execution• Kinetic• Non-kinetic
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• Navy end-strength and next-generation ship crew sizes are decreasing
– At the same time the mission scope is increasing
• More will be expected out of each individual crew member:– Increase in required reach-back support (e.g. linguists, repair
support, supply, )– Increase in required crew skill levels (i.e. education, disbursing,
connectivity with home for the hybrid sailor)
Impact of These Trends on Manpower
The “Hybrid Sailor” is the key to this glide slope
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Impact of These Trends on Business
Lessons from industry:• Transformation calls for consolidation of applications and data centers
- Content is king
• Move to portal “thin client” wherever possible (use web browser to interact with applications)
• Strongly leverage DoD solutions- Defense Knowledge Online
• Security
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N6 PR09: Leverage commercial and joint efforts to reduce cost and increase capability
• DoD “costs for capability” are increasing exponentially
– e.g., AEGIS baseline
• Hardware-centric systems
– Few vendors
• Highly integrated applications
• Redundant services & databases
Military trend: Costs increase as technology matures
Trends and Transformation – Why and How
Military trend from analyzing the past 20 years of DoD programs
Commercial trend: Costs decrease as technology matures
Capability
Cos
t
Pivot onto commercial trend through:
- Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)- Data strategy- Governance- Rapid Capability Development
Pivot onto commercial trend through:
- Service Oriented Architecture (SOA)- Data strategy- Governance- Rapid Capability Development
Time
N6 Investment: Leverage commercial and joint efforts to reduce cost
N6 C4I Infrastructure
• Commercial Industry has consistently realized savings
• This illustrates the commercial trend from analyzing completed industry projects over the past 5 years
• Observed implementations included:
– Open Architecture
– COTS
Numerous vendors
– Standardized infrastructure
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N6 Approach
Warfighting Manpower
Business
Architecture with Data Strategy, Governance, and Rapid Capability Development are the forcing functions
Systems Systems
Systems
Applications
Applications ApplicationsCommon
Infrastructure&
SharedData
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IMAFISC
SPAWAR
TRNG CEN
MHQ/MOC
NCDOC
Desired End State
Architecture: Provides common services & infrastructure• Consolidated Afloat Network Enterprise Services (CANES)• Next Generation Enterprise Network (NGEN)• Network Security
Data Strategy: Ensures interoperability• Common Net-centric Data Environment (CNDE) – MDA COI
Rapid Capability Development:• MHQ-MOC capabilities• MDA capabilities• Coalition connectivity• Bandwidth / throughput• Information Ops
Governance:• Enables all of the above• Generates liquidity for greater agility
Architecture:
CANESCANESCANES
Data StrategyNGEN
BASE
Increased bandwidth / throughput + CANES enables Sea Warrior / Distance Support
Increased bandwidth / throughput + CANES enables Sea Warrior / Distance Support
“… suspect cargo”
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Questions?
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Trend Summary
Five Years2 YearsToday
Funding
Connectivity
Technology
Manpower
• Failure to address these trends early will compound impact 5 years from now
• LNR continues• N6 does not have insight into all Navy funding
• Legacy Network reduction (LNR)
• Connectivity to Navy users levels out
• Commercial continues to increase
• Connectivity to Navy tactical users improves
• Not keeping pace
• Small Combatant lags typical home user
• Begin to field technology that’s available today
• Insignificant change from current capabilities
• Navy has fallen off pace
• Acquisition not agile
• LCS manning requires “Hybrid sailor”
• Connectivity will be key
• Downward trend continues
• Downward manpower trend
?? ?? ??
Five Years2 YearsToday
Funding
Connectivity
Technology
Manpower
• Navy funding keeps pace with commercial world
• LNR funding captured
• Warfighting Network Sustainment
• Data throughput to Navy users keeping pace with commercial world
• Reliable Satellite Communication
• Coalition and Multinational C4 Interoperability
• Navy technology keeping pace with industry
• Robust network security
• Service Oriented Architecture
• Standards based on industry best practices
• Unclass COP / MDA
• LCS “Hybrid sailor”• Improved C4 Training
• Streamlined administrative C4 processes
Optimized investments, Rapid Capability Development and more effective policy / governance will flip these arrows in our favor
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1. Coalition And Multinational C4 Interoperability
2. Reliable Satellite Communication
3. Data Throughput
4. Computer Network Defense
5. Common Operational Picture (COP) / Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA)
6. Real-time Collaboration
7. Standards Based On Industry Best Practices
8. Streamlined Administrative C4 Processes
9. C4 Training
10. Warfighting Network Sustainment and Life Cycle Management
Combination of numerous trends
Connectivity
Connectivity
Security
Combination of numerous trends
Web Services
Data Strategy, IP Stack
ComplexityManpower
Unit Cost
NCC Top 10 Commercial Trend
Naval Component Commander (NCC) Top 10 C4I IssuesCompared to commercial investment trends
Fleet priorities mirror commercial trends