n=billions: the smartphone revolution in the behavioral sciences

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N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral sciences Geoffrey Miller

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N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral sciences. Geoffrey Miller. Almost everyone in the world will soon be able to participate in any behavioral research – remotely, electronically, continually. 2012: 7.0 billion people total >5.0 billion mobile phone users - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral sciences

Geoffrey Miller

Page 2: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Almost everyone in the world will soon be able to participate in any behavioral research – remotely, electronically, continually

Page 3: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

2012: • 7.0 billion people total• >5.0 billion mobile phone

users• 1.1 billion in China• 900 million in India• 700 million in Africa

Smartphone users:• 2012: 1.1 billion• 2015: 3 billion• 2020: 5 billion (ITU, 2012; Erickson, 2012)

Page 4: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences
Page 5: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Smartphone R&D: A windfall for behavioral sciences

Revenue 2012: – $1.5 trillion telecomms services– $200 billion smartphone sales– cf. Pharmaceuticals $970 billion

Smartphone R&D spending 2012– Samsung $6 billion– Nokia $1.7 billion– Apple $1 billion

cf. behavioral science research:– NIMH $1.5 billion– NSF $250 million

Page 6: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Ideal method for gathering data if psychology was invented today?

Smartphones.• general-purpose computer + sensor

array + GPS system + media capture system (+ small enough to hold to your head for phone calls)

• Ubiquitous, unobtrusive, intimate• Remotely accessible through

participants downloading ‘psych apps’• Can gather precise, objective,

sustained, ecologically valid data on real-world behaviors & experiences of millions

Page 7: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Smartphone research methods• “The smartphone psychology

manifesto” (2011), Perspectives on Psychological Science

• Symposia at:– Society for Experimental Social

Psychology (Austin Oct 2012)– Association for Psychological Science

(D.C., May 2013)– Association for Consumer Research

(Chicago Oct 2013)

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What can smartphones do for psychology?

Example:Samsung Galaxy S3

Released June 2012Sold 20m within 3 months$1 bn/month in profits

Page 9: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Carried throughout day• Small: 5.4 x 2.8 x 0.3”• Light: 4.7 ounces• Reliable: 43 hour battery life• Continual data-gathering:

sensors, GPS, app logs, call logs

Familiar, intimate, personalized, trusted, unobtrusive• habituation low reactance• ecological validity

Samsung Galaxy S3

Page 10: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Android 4.1 operating system

Develop & download “psych apps” for studies

Apps can run in background w/o annoying subjects

“Root access” to all hardware, sensors

msec timing unlike Mturk (e.g. Dufau 2011 lexical decision app N=4,157)

Software access to all other apps: phone calls, emails, web browser, Facebook

Page 11: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3

Page 12: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3pocket supercomputer

ARM Cortex A9 Chip with Exynos Quad-core 1.4 GHz CPU

Can run sophisticated AI, speech recognition, psych apps

21 Mbps 4G Broadband access cloud computing for unlimited processing & memory

Faster than your office PC

Page 13: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3personal data repository

2 GB RAM, 64 GB flash memory Medical records MRIs Genomes

School records Legal records Spending patterns Credit history

Contact lists Music tastes Photo albums Home videos

Page 14: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Input/Output for running surveys, experiments

1280x720 pixel 4.8” touchscreen

Rear 8 MP camera (1080p@30fps video)

Front 1.9 MP camera (720p@30fps video)

Smart Stay eye tracking

Dual mikes, noise cancelling, voice recognition

Button taps, gestures, virtual keyboard

Page 15: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Input/Output for high-quality audio & video

3.5mm stereo jack

microUSB2.0, MHL to HDMI to 3-D HDTV video & 8-channel digital audio

Page 16: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Connectivity: download psych apps, upload data, sense environment & interactions

Bluetooth, WiFi: sense nearby electronics

4G broadband internet (HSPA+ @ 21 Mbit/s)

NFC payments, purchases

Page 17: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Onboard sensors: location,

300 GPS + 24 GLONASS navsats: +/- 10m lat/long,10 nsec time

GISdigital maps

GPS receiver chip

life-tracking, spatial behavior, context-aware experiments

Page 18: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Samsung Galaxy S3Onboard sensors: movements

3-axis accelerometer: motion tracking, activity type, energy output, health, mood

3-axis gyroscope: orientation tracking Barometer: altitude,

weatherDigital compass: direction tracking

Page 19: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

External sensors• Consumer EEG headsets, e.g,. Emotiv

EPOC 14-channel ($300)• Future biological microelectromechanical

systems (BioMEMS): wearable, implanted, injected to monitor temp, blood pressure, pulse, blood alcohol & drugs, hormones, immune system, inflammation, stress, ovulation, brain function

• Remote neuropsych, health psych, substance abuse research

Wireless intraocular glaucoma pressure sensor (1 cubic millimeter)

Page 20: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

External biosensors:Continua Health Alliance

• Trade association of 220 companies • Promotes mHealth, certifies Bluetooth &

Zigbee biosensors – heart ECG, blood glucose monitors, ultrasound imagers

• Promoters: Samsung, Sharp, Panasonic, Sony, Fujitsu, Intel, IBM, Texas Instruments, Oracle, Cisco, Orange, Qualcomm, Novartis, Roche, UnitedHealth

Page 21: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

mHealth = health care & research through mobile phones

• open-source mHealth specs, standards, software for:– Surveys, biosensors, RFID med tracking,

behavior tracking (GPS, sensors, call logs) – Continuous symptom monitoring integrated

across diseases – Whole-population drug trials, N-of-1

longitudinal trials

• Current projects: PTSD, pain management

• Want to work with psychologists: behavioral data sensing & standards

Deborah Estrin Ida Sim

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PracticalitiesTechnical challenges• Conflicting apps• Limited battery power (esp. for GPS)• Limited-accuracy sensors (but getting better)• Heat dissipation (if psych app is CPU -hungry)• Unreliable telecoms service in some countriesParticipant behavior challenges• Forgetting to charge & carry smartphone daily• Losing or upgrading phones during study• Lending phones to others • Malicious hackers• Reactivity & self-consciousness

Page 23: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

PracticalitiesGlobal recruitment potential, but constrained by

– Selection biases: who owns smartphones– Smartphone OS, drivers, hardware specs– Language of app interface – Geoareas covered by GIS databases– Payment systems, exchange rates

Programming psych apps• Software development kids (devkits) –

assume knowing Java, Objective-C, C#, etc.• No easy-to-use psych app devkits yet• Collaborate with computer scientists, user

experience researchers, smartphone manufacturers, telecoms service providers

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Niko Kiukkonen et al. (2010) at Nokia: • Tracked 168 smartphone users 4 months eachData flood:• 15 million Bluetooth scans of nearby devices• 13 million Wi-Fi scans of nearby routers• 5 million GPS records• 4 million app usage records• 500,000 accelerometer readings• 220,000 audio samples• 130,000 voice calls• 90,000 text messages• 28,000 photos taken• 2,000 videos shot

Data analysis challenges

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= data output from 70 participants recording one hour of HD video per day

1080p 30fps Pivothead recording glasses, $350

CERN LHC computing grid: 300 MB/s raw data output, handled by 200,000 processors and 150,000 TB disk space across 34 countries; 15 petabytes/year

Psych will have develop new ‘behavioral informatics’ methods

=

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• Anonymity impossible given GPS, app usage, call logs, sensor logs

• Truly informed consent hard to get • Software licensing agreements rarely read –

Google, Facebook, Apple data-mining • Confidentiality vulnerable to authorities,

telecoms service providers & hardware manufacturers (e.g. Huawei)

• Rules unclear given global recruitment, access to vulnerable recruits, data storage with cloud computing

• Potential for liability, fraud, identity theft, blackmail

Human subjects & IRB challenges

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Smartphones vs. other research methods

Pros:• Potential global recruitment & very large

samples• High convenience, ecological validity,

unobtrusiveness• Easy video/audio capture, motion sensing,

location tracking• Potential HD video/audio given common

peripherals• Potential remote neurophysiology & health

psych given Bluetooth biosensors

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Smartphones vs. other research methods

Cons:• Substantial study prep work writing & field-

testing the psych app• Low contextual control over participant’s

social & physical environment• Potentially very large datasets requiring new

behavioral informatics methods• Ethical challenges in informed consent,

anonymity, confidentiality, liability, & rule ambiguity given global recruitment & cloud data storage

Page 29: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Challenges for Berkman?• Legal & moral issues: human subjects

protection, privacy, data security• Economic issues: payment systems• Social issues of behavioral Big Data &

personal data

Page 30: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Conclusions• A tech windfall for psychology• Telecoms R&D $billions creating

a pervasive, unified, global, context-aware system for sensing behavior & experience of almost everyone on earth

• Smartphones will quickly grow even more powerful & ubiquitous

• We just have to learn how to tap into the data-torrent

• Questions?

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Extra slides for answering questions

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Big Data in psychology

N=thousands

N > 100,000 (moral values: Jesse Graham et al., 2010)

N=61m (political influence: Robert Bond et al., 2012 , Nature)

YourMorals.org

Page 33: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Previous research using mobile electronic devices

• Analyze anonymized telecoms call-routing records: movements & social connections of millions of people

• Distribute preprogammed PDAs, EARs: experience sampling, diary studies, conversation samples

• Distribute preprogammed smartphones: MIT Reality Mining project

• Distribute apps remotely to existing smartphones: MyExperience, Mappiness– Recruit any user, anywhere– Huge samples– Rich data

Page 34: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Smartphones: all-purposeelectronic Swiss army knifes

• Replacing: landline phones, digital cameras, photo books, video recorders, MP3 music players, radios, voice recorders, GPS navigators, handheld game consoles, watches, alarm clocks, calendars, and calculators

• Can replace paper-and-pencil surveys, mail surveys, phone surveys

• Given the right peripherals, could replace many lab studies, field studies, and Internet studies

Page 35: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

• RFID chip readers, can sense all tagged objects nearby (30 bn RFID tags produced per year; soon > 1 tr): consumer psych

• Better picoprojectors (e.g. Samsung Beam): group experiments

• Electronic glasses & contact lenses, augmented reality apps & experiments

• Better speech recognition• Bluetooth haptic, kinematic, mo-cap

peripherals (like Xbox 360 Kinect)• Piezoelectric clothing to charge batteries,

record joint movements

What will smartphones do soon?

Page 36: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Moore’s law: transistor density on chips (computer speed) doubles every two years

What will smartphones do soon?

By 2016: 8-core 2-GHz CPUs, 64-core GPU for 3D HD video

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Smartphones as handheld supercomputers

1997: Intel ASCI Red, Sandia Nat’l Labs: first teraflop supercomputer9,298 333-MHz processors, 104 cabinets, 2,500 square feet, $50 million

Within 10 years: 64-core 50-GHz processors … plus unlimited cloud computing power, c. $500

=

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Kryder’s law: memory storage capacity doubles every 12 months

16 GB micro SD flash memory cards

2012: 32 GB flash memory chip in Galaxy Nexus

2025: >200 TB memory in smartphones

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Connectivity: Nielsen’s law: Internet connection speeds increase 50% per year

2012: HTC Thunderbolt = 300 Mbit/s LTE broadband

2025: 60 Gbit/s = 5x HDMI 1.3 cable = drive 5 HD digital cinema projectors

Page 40: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

From phone-centric to data-centric devices

• 1987: ‘Wall Street’ phone• 1993: first smartphone IBM

‘Simon’ • 2007: Apple iPhone• 2008: Android OS

Page 41: N=billions: The smartphone revolution in the behavioral  sciences

Evolution of the mobile phone1983 - 2012

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Heat dissipation: Koomey’s law: computations per kWh energy dissipated increases 50% per year

Keep smartphones from getting too warm

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Abstract

• 5.9 billion people now use mobile phones, of which 1.1 billion are smartphones. Smartphones will empower behavioral scientists to collect terabytes of ecologically valid data from vast global samples – easily, quickly, and remotely. Smartphones can record where people are, what they are doing, and what they can see and hear. They can run interactive surveys, tests, and experiments through touch screens and Bluetooth peripherals. This talk focuses on what smartphones can do now, and will be able to do in the near future, as research platforms. Smartphone research will require new skills in app development, Big Data analysis, and recruitment through social media, and will raise tough new ethical issues, but smartphones could transform the behavioral sciences even more profoundly than PCs and brain imaging did. By 2025, billions of potential research participants will be carrying ultra-broadband, sensor-rich smartphones with GPS, augmented reality goggles, and biosensors that allow remote psychophysiology. These will render some current research methods obsolete, and will open extraordinary new opportunities for understanding human nature and culture.