ncar’s societal impacts program: research and outreach jeffrey k. lazo, director julie demuth,...
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NCAR’s Societal Impacts Program:
Research and Outreach
Jeffrey K. Lazo, DirectorJulie Demuth, Associate Scientist
NCAR Societal Impacts Program
NOAA/NWS SeminarNovember 1, 2007
Jeffrey K. Lazo, DirectorJulie Demuth, Associate Scientist
NCAR Societal Impacts Program
NOAA/NWS SeminarNovember 1, 2007
Outline• Overview of NCAR’s Societal Impacts
Program (SIP)
• Results from recent U.S. household survey– Assess people’s views and attitudes about
weather forecast information, including uncertainty information
Overview of the SIP
Origins of SIP• Very little is currently known about:
– economic value of current and improved weather information
– users’ sources, perceptions, uses, and value of weather information
– users’ understanding of, use of, and preferences for weather forecast uncertainty information
– best practices for integrating new weather information into users’ environment
• Relevance to NOAA– Crucial to fulfilling NOAA mission– NOAA has minimal capacity to address these
issues – Greater demands for NOAA to justify research
and activities for budget decisions
Origins of SIP• Collaborative Program on Societal and
Economic Benefits of Weather Information– NOAA–NCAR collaboration– Peer reviewed– Unanimously accepted USWRP Interagency
Working Group, July 2003– Program commenced April 1, 2004, with hiring of
a Director
• SIP as part of NCAR– Independent non-federal– History of interdisciplinary research in the
interactions between weather and society– Unique within university community, tap
extensive expertise in social sciences
Scope of SIP• Mission
– Improve the societal gains from weather forecasting by infusing social science and economic research, methods, and capabilities into the planning, execution, and analysis of weather information, applications, and research directions.
• Implementation– Research– Outreach and education– WAS*IS program– Community support
Current SIP research• Communicating uncertainty in weather
forecasts– Will discuss methods and results in more detail
• Overall U.S. sector sensitivity assessment
• Individual sector sensitivity assessment–transportation
• Warning decisions in extreme weather events
• Hurricane household valuation study
• User needs assessment
• Hydrometeorological testbed
Overall U.S. Sector Sensitivity Assessment (OUSSSA)
• “...one-third of the private industry activities, representing annual revenues of some $3 trillion, have some degree of weather and climate risk.” (Dutton, 2002)
• Evaluate sensitivity of 11 U.S. economic “super” sectors to weather variability
• Writing results for BAMS manuscript
Individual Sector Sensitivity Assessment–Transportation (ISSA-
T)• Assess transportation sector’s use and
value of weather forecast information– To understand how the transportation sector
is affected by weather and what weather information it deems useful
– To develop valid and reliable socio-economic methods for assessing use and value
• Methodology– 5 subsectors: air, rail, water, truck, pipeline– Eliciting judgments from experts in academia,
private sector, and government
Warning Decisions in Extreme Weather Events
• How extreme weather warnings are communicated, interpreted, and used by different participants
– Explore interactions among 4 groups: forecasters, public officials, media, public
– Focus on hurricanes and flash floods; challenges for decision making in the face of risk and uncertainty• Collaborators (NSF funded)
– Kathleen Tierney and Jeannette Sutton -- U. of Colorado, Natural Hazards Center
– Ann Bostrom -- U. of Washington, School of Public Affairs
Other SIP research• User needs assessment
– Summarize best practices for introducing weather decision-support technologies into new environments
• Hurricane household valuation study– Assess use and value of improved hurricane
forecasts to households
• Hydrometeorological testbed– Assess societal impacts and economic value
for American River area in California
Weather and Society * Integrated Studies (WAS*IS)
• Vision: To change the weather enterprise by comprehensively and sustainably integrating social science into meteorological research and practice
• Mission– Build an interdisciplinary, grassroots
community of practitioners, researchers, & stakeholders who are dedicated to integrating meteorology and social science
– Provide opportunities to learn and examine ideas, methods, & examples related to integrated weather-society work
WAS*IS• Workshops
– Original Boulder WAS*IS (Nov 2005, Mar 2006)
– WAS*IS Norman (Apr 2006)– 2006 Summer WAS*IS (Jul 2006)– WAS*IS Australia (Jan-Feb 2007)– 2007 Summer WAS*IS (Jul 2007)• 145 WAS*ISers (so far)!
WAS*IS• Current and future activities
– Program evaluation– Edited compendium (NCAR assessment initiative
funding)– Interaction with AMS Policy Program– 2008 Summer WAS*IS workshop (tentative)
• Output– WAS*IS overview paper by Demuth et al. forthcoming
in November issue of BAMS– Conferences and meetings– Networking and collaborations
• Outcome– NWS “Advanced” Workshop, October 24-25– New research and activities
SIP outreach and education• Website
– Extreme Weather Sourcebook– Societal Aspects Page– Digital Library
• Weather and Society Watch Newsletter
• Economics Primer
• WxSoc newsgroup
SIP community support• Hurricane Forecast Socio-Economic Working
Group– Special issue Natural Hazards Review (August 2007)– Joint NSF-NOAA funding opportunity (FY08)
• THORPEX– Societal and Economic Research and Applications (SERA)
WG– NAT SERA (BAMS article forthcoming)
• Economics primer– NOAA funded
• WMO Public Weather Service Taskforce
• WMO CAS Strategic Planning
• AMS Annual Partnership Topic on Hurricane Disasters
Nationwide Survey of U.S. Households
To assess people’s views and attitudes about weather forecasts and weather forecast uncertainty
Motivation: Community recognition
• Per NRC (2006) “Completing the Forecast” report recommendations:– Overarching Rec 2: collaborating with users and
partners in the Enterprise and engaging and using social and behavioral science expertise
– Rec 4.4: study uncertainty terms, icons, and other communications methods
• AMS (2002) statement on enhancing weather information with probability forecasts
• Other NRC reports, conference sessions, etc.
• Recent formation of the AMS Ad Hoc Committee on Uncertainty in Forecasts (ACUF)
Objectives• To support the meteorological
community in effectively providing weather forecast information, including uncertainty, by:– Assessing people’s sources, perceptions, uses
and value of weather forecast information Also assess how these factors change over time
– Exploring people’s perception of, interpretation of, and preferences for weather forecast uncertainty information
Survey design and implementation
• Survey questions developed:– based on questions asked in previous survey
research– to investigate fundamental research
questions and issues raised by previous related work
• Pre-tested survey during development and implementation
• Implemented survey in November 2006– Controlled-access, web-based with sample
population provided by survey sampling company
• Analysis based on N=1465 respondents
Weather forecast research questions
• From where and how often do people get weather forecast information?
• For what locations or regions do people get forecasts?
• What times of day do people get forecasts?
• For what reasons do people get forecasts?
• What weather forecast parameters are important to people?
• What is people’s willingness to pay for forecasts?
How often do you get forecasts from the sources listed below?
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Local TV
Cable TV
Commercial or public radio
Other webpages
Newspapers
NWS webpages
Friends, family, co-workers, etc.
NOAA Weather Radio
Telephone weather info source
Cell phone, PDA, pager, etc.
Average household
accesses weather forecasts 115
times per month!
With over 113 million U.S. households, this totals to over 150 Billion forecasts
accessed a year!
With over 113 million U.S. households, this totals to over 150 Billion forecasts
accessed a year!
Mean Monthly Access
On average, how often do you use weather forecasts for the activities
listed below?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Simply knowing whatthe weather will be like
Planning how to dressself or children
Planning weekendactivities
Planning travel
Planning yard work oroutdoor house work
Planning socialactivities
Planning getting towork or school
Planning job activities
Rarely or never Less than half the time About half the time
More than half the time Usually or always Not applicable
How important is it to you to have the information below as part of a weather
forecast?
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
When precip will occur
Chance of precip
Where precip will occur
Type of precip
High temp
Amount of precip
Chance of amount of precip
Low temp
Wind speed
Humidity
Time of day high temp will occur
Time of day low temp will occur
Cloudiness
Wind direction
Not at all important A little important Somewhat important Very important Extremely important
Do you feel that the NWS services you receive are worth more than, exactly, or less than $N a year to your household? • Given values for $N varied among $2, $5, $10,
$30, $60, $90, $120, $150, $180, $210, $240
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Fitted Percent of Respondents
Wil
lin
gn
ess
to P
ay
Uncertainty research questions• How much confidence do people have in
different types of weather forecasts?
• Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts and, if so, how much?
• How do people interpret a type of uncertainty forecast that is already commonly available and familiar: probability of precipitation forecasts?
• To what extent do people prefer to receive deterministic vs. uncertainty-explicit forecasts?
• In what formats do people prefer to receive forecast uncertainty information?
• Do people infer uncertainty into deterministic forecasts and, if so, how much?
(Perception)
Suppose the forecast high temperature for tomorrow for your
area is 75°F.What do you think the actual high temperature will be?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
75°F 74-76°F(± 1°F)
73-77°F(± 2°F)
70-80°F(± 5°F)
65-85°F(± 10°F)
Other
Per
cen
t o
f R
esp
on
den
ts
• To what extent do people prefer to receive deterministic vs. uncertainty-explicit forecasts?
• In what formats do people prefer to receive forecast uncertainty information?
(Preferences)
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Prefer Channel A(deterministic)
Prefer Channel B(uncertainty)
Like both channels
Like neither channel
I don't know
Percent of Respondents
Suppose you are watching the local evening news …
• The Channel A weather forecaster says the high temperature will be 76°F tomorrow
• The Channel B weather forecaster says the high temperature will be between 74°F and 78°F tomorrow.
All the choices below are the same as a probability of
precipitation of 20%.Do you like the information given this way?
• Chance of precipitation is 20%
• There is a 1 in 5 chance of precipitation
• The odds are 1 to 4 that it will rain
• There is a slight chance of rain tomorrow
Percent
Frequency
Odds
Text
Asked this question 3 ways – using PoPs of 20%, 50%, and 80% with corresponding text descriptions from
NWS
Asked this question 3 ways – using PoPs of 20%, 50%, and 80% with corresponding text descriptions from
NWS
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Percent Frequency Odds Text
N = 489,489, 487
PoP of 20%
Percent of respondents who said “yes”
PoP of 50%PoP of 80%
To summarize• Weather forecast views and attitudes,
including on uncertainty– 150 billion served!– Majority of people like uncertainty info and many
prefer it– People have preferences for how uncertainty
information is conveyed
• Dissemination of results– Submitted manuscript with uncertainty results to
Weather and Forecasting this week– Will submit manuscript with sources, uses,
perceptions info to BAMS in early 2008Connecting physical and social science in these
ways will help more effectively communicate weather forecast information, including
uncertainty!
Connecting physical and social science in these ways will help more effectively communicate
weather forecast information, including uncertainty!
Future work• Future research questions to pursue
– People’s interpretations of and preferences for uncertainty information in other formats (including graphics), in different weather situations, across different media, etc.
– People’s use of different types of uncertainty information
• Grant funded this survey
• Seeking additional funding for future research in this area
Importance of social science• Empirical research employing both
quantitative and qualitative social science methods are needed– E.g., surveys, focus groups, interviews
• Need range of social science expertise– E.g., economics, communication, psychology,
decision science
Societal Impacts Program... aims to improve societal gains from weather forecasting by infusing social science and economic research, methods, and capabilities into the planning, execution, and analysis of weather information, applications, and research directions• research
• WAS*IS• outreach and education• community support
• research• WAS*IS• outreach and education• community support
Thank you!• Contact
– Jeff Lazo, SIP Director ([email protected])– Julie Demuth ([email protected])– Rebecca Morss ([email protected])
• www.sip.ucar.edu
• www.sip.ucar.edu/wasis