ncep production suite review: “land surface guidance systems” emc land-hydrology team: michael...
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NCEP Production Suite Review:“Land Surface Guidance Systems”
EMC Land-Hydrology Team:Michael Ek, Jesse Meng, Rongqian Yang, Helin Wei,
Youlong Xia, Yihua Wu, Weizhong Zheng, Jiarui Dong, Caterina Tassone
Environmental Modeling Center (EMC)National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)
NOAA/NWS
NCEP Production Suite Review, 2-3 December 2014NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction, College Park, Maryland
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• Noah land model has relevant land physics & assoc. land data sets, & provides lower boundary conditions (heat, moisture, momentum) for NAM, GFS, CFS.
NCEP-NCAR unified Noah land model
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Uncoupled“NLDAS”(drought)
Air Quality
WRF NMM/ARWWorkstation WRF
WRF: ARW, NMMETA, RSM
Satellites99.9%
Regional NAMWRF NMM
(including NARR)
Hurricane GFDLHWRF
GlobalForecastSystem
Dispersion
ARL/HYSPLIT
Forecast
Severe Weather
Rapid Updatefor Aviation (ARW-based)
ClimateCFS
1.7B Obs/Day
Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast
Noah Land Model Connections in NOAA’s NWS Model Production Suite
MOM32-Way Coupled Oceans
HYCOM
WaveWatch III
NAM/CMAQ
Regional DataAssimilation
Global DataAssimilation
North American Ensemble Forecast System
GFS, Canadian Global Model
NOAH Land Surface Model
NCEP-NCAR unified
Uncoupled“GLDAS”
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Land model validation• Low-level observations (e.g. 2-m temperature &
humidity, 10-m winds); multi-year “fvs” data set.www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/research/nearsfc/nearsfc.verf.html
July monthly diurnal 10-m wind (m/s)
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0 24 48 72hr
obs: solid, NAM: short-dash, GFS: long-dash
eastwest 2010
0 24 48 72hr
2011
3
5
3
4
3
4
3
00Z Forecast Cycle
• Other std metrics: upper air scores, precip threat &bias scores, 500mb hgt AC + sfc flux site validation
• Also: land-use category validation
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Upgrades/near-term future
• Precipitation: new snow fall algorithm that uses NAM microphysics that accounts for mixed-phase precipitation (liquid and frozen) and riming factor, so increases snow density, reduces snow depth.
• Surface-layer changes: addresses low-level T2m and wind biases via additinoal adjustments to momentum roughness for some land-use/vegetation categories, thermal roughness effect over snow.
GFS• Soil moisture nudging: new soil moisture climatology.• Surface-layer changes: addresses low-level T2m via
momentum roughness adjustments (generally lower) and thermal roughness dependent on land-use/vegetation category.
• Land-use/veg type and soil type: new higher-resolution.
NAM
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July 2011
North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS)
Ensemble monthly soil moisture anomaly
July 30-year climo.
• Operational Aug 2014: Four land models run un-coupled, driven by CPC obs precip & atmos forcing from NCEP N. Amer. Reg. Climate Data Assimil Sys.
• Output: 1/8-deg. land & soil states, surface fluxes, runoff & streamflow; anomalies compared with climatologies from 30-year land model runs.
• Drought: monitoring & seasonal hydro. prediction for CPC/NIDIS; future: NAM domain FY2015, then global
www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas
Daily streamflow
September 2013
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Future upgrades
• Unified Noah land model across NCEP systems.• Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS): higher-resolution that “feeds” (via upscaling) initial conditions to NAM, GFS, CFS --> NEMS.
• Improved land data sets: near-realtime GVF. • “Formal” Land Data Assimilation: Snow, soil moisture, land skin temp, veg (cover, density).
• Freshwater lakes, add’l fire-related upgrades.• Steamflow: River-routing scheme moves water to sea; more complete atmos, land, hydrology, ocean connection, i.e. Earth System Modeling.
• Upgraded “Noah-MP” physics: explicit plant canopy, CO2-based photosynthesis, dynamic veg., multi-layer snowpack, groundwater.
NAM, GFS, CFSQuestions?