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NCEP’s Climate Forecast System as a National Model

““Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin”

August 28, 2007

Dr. Louis W. UccelliniDirector, National Centers for Environmental Prediction

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Overview Overview

• Transition Paradigm

• Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

• Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Risks / Budget Issues

EMCNCO

R&D Operations Delivery

Criteria

Transition from Research to Operations

Requirements

EMC

Schematics in the Model Transition Process

OPS Life cycleSupport

Service Centers

NOAAResearch

Concept of Operations

ServiceCenters

Test BedsJCSDA

CTBDTCJHT

User

Obs

erva

tion

Sy

stem

Launch List – Model Implementation Process

FieldOffices

Effort

EMC and NCO have critical roles in the transition from NOAA R&D to operations

Other Agencies&

International

Forecast benefits, Efficiency, IT Compatibility, Sustainability

ASI, COLA,ARCS

Operations to Research

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NCEP

R2O

1. Large “volume” of R&D, funded through AOs, Agency Labs…

2. Smaller set of R&D products suitable for operations. 3. Systematic transition steps Research-to-Operations (R2O).

Deliver skill-optimized forecast products founded on CTB-based innovation and& customer

feedback; Bring in customer requests

4. Systematic transition steps Operations-to-Applications (O2A).

5. Delivery of products to the

diverse community and customer

feedback

Applying the “Funnel” to the Transition ProcessApplying the “Funnel” to the Transition Process

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NCEPis uniquelypositioned

to provide an operational

infra-structure for

the transition processes

User Community

R&D Community

OPERATIONS

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3

EMCCFS

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4O2A

CTB

CPC

CTB role: facilitate transitions for the CPC specific product range (6-10 day, week 2, monthly, seasonal)

O2R

R2O

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• Climate Forecast System: first dynamic operational climate forecast model (implemented Aug 2004)

• Climate Test Bed: established in 2005, focused on accelerating improvements in the Climate Forecast System and related seasonal forecast products

• Unprecedented increases in the skill of CPC official seasonal outlooks (20% or more; O’Lenic et al. 2007) due in part to CFS and to CTB milestones (e.g. consolidation tool).

Recent Climate Prediction Advancements at NCEP

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Ongoing Strategic Priorities Ongoing Strategic Priorities

• Accelerate improvements in the CFS through the O2R & R2O paradigm

• Be a partner within the multi model ensemble enterprise

• Enhance NCEP’s role in the transition process

• Address budget issues

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““Operations to Research (O2R)”Operations to Research (O2R)”

• GoalGoal– To accelerate improvements in the NCEP Climate Forecast System by providing CFS

to the broad research community

• DeliverablesDeliverables– CFS, data, and support services (e.g. helpdesk facility) to user community– Annual workshop on CFS

• MechanismMechanism– Managed operational program between NCEP, CPO, and CTB

• BenefitsBenefits– Provides support for research with CFS outside NCEP (ARCs, NSF, etc)– Maximizes opportunities for community participation

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““Operations to Research (O2R)”Operations to Research (O2R)”

NCEPNCEP will providewill provide

• Operational models (CFS, GFS) and data (e.g. reforecasts, reanalysis)

• Helpdesk facilities, training for O2R staff, web services

• Points of contact for collaboration

• Support for CTB Seminar Series

CPO will provideCPO will provide

• Support for helpdesk, training, points of contact, web services

• Grants Program (AOs)

CTB will provideCTB will provide

• Transition Infrastructure for pulling in the Research (R2O)

• Links between Test beds (e.g. CTB and HTB)

GAPSGAPS

• Computing support for dissemination of models and data

• Resources for competitive transition activities

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CTB Seminar SeriesCTB Seminar Series

• Initial focus: "CFS as a prediction system and research tool".

• Alternate venue between NCEP and COLA

• NCEP Venue: Coordinate Seminars with CTB “Test and Evaluation Team” meetings for broader discussion following the seminars

• Gradually expand to include the broader climate community

• Future Foci:

• Change topic from year-to-year or as appropriate

– Multi-Model Ensembles

– Climate forecast product improvements

• COLA has 7 speakers lined up for the NCEP venue

• NCEP has 5 speakers lined up for the COLA venue and 1 for the NCEP venue

• The seminar series will commence in September. Speaker list is available.

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Risks on MME SystemRisks on MME System

• Lack of a National Strategy on MME, including insufficient (US) computer resources for generating hindcast data sets

• Lack of a concept of operations

– MOUs with partners (International and US) for exchanges of operational models and real time forecast data

• NCAR and NASA have their own time lines for model development

• CTB resource limitations

– Insufficient computer resources to run hindcasts for other organizations

– Skill assessments

– Post-processing, calibration, consolidation, and preparation for operations

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Budget Issues Budget Issues

• Can only make the transition activities work with full CPO support for the CFS, the CTB and related transition activities

O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, O2R Support – people, data access, helpdesk, trainingtraining

CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007)CFS next Reanalysis (1979-2007)

CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007) CFS next Retrospective Forecasts (1981-2007)

AO for selected topicsAO for selected topics

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Appendix

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R&D –vs – Transition ?R&D –vs – Transition ?• Transition costs have been, and still are, under- resourcedTransition costs have been, and still are, under- resourced

• Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will Within an era of constant or diminishing dollars, R&D and transition needs will likely be competing with each other.likely be competing with each other.

Now

R&D

Transition Transition

R&D

R&D

Transition

R&D

Transition

Future ? ??

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CTB Seminar SeriesCTB Seminar Series– COLA Speakers at NCEP– 1. Cristiana Stan - Estimation of the limit of predictability in stratosphere vs troposphere using CFS – 2. Ben Kirtman - Multi-model ensemble ENSO prediction with CCSM and CFS– 3. Kathy Pegion - Potential predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability in the NCEP CFS– 4. Bohua Huang - Evolution of CFS bias in the Atlantic basin using the CFS hindcasts– 5. Renguang Wu - Surface latent heat flux and its relationship with SST in the NCEP– CFS simulations and retrospective forecasts– 6. Zeng-Zhen Hu - CFS hindcast skill as related to the mean state– 7. Julia Manganello - Heat and momentum flux-correction experiments with CFS

– NCEP Speakers at COLA– 1. Augustin Vintzileos - Subseasonal prediction with the NCEP CFS: Forecast skill and prediction

barriers for Tropical Intraseasonal Oscillations– 2. Yan Xue - NCEP's GODAS and Ocean Monitoring Products– 3. Wanqiu Wang – Sources of tropical SST bias in the operational CFS.– 4. Lindsay Williams – NAMAP 2 and CFS Model Resolution– 5. Soo-Hyun Yoo– Simulation of the global monsoon with CFS

– NCEP Speakers at NCEP– 1. Huug van den Dool - Verification of daily forecasts by the CFS (the 2004 version)

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COLA Scientists Using CFSCOLA Scientists Using CFS

There are currently 10 COLA scientists who are actively experimenting with or diagnosing CFS:

• 7 on the CTB Joint Seminar Series• 2 PhD students• 1 summer intern

There are 2 other scientists and 1 other PhD student who are planning to begin work with CFS before the end of this year.

Several other COLA scientists have examined the CFS hindcasts or CMIP simulations in their work. 

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Climate Information: Responding to User Needs

A national workshop sponsored by the University of Marylandin partnership with NOAA, NASA, and the American Meteorological Society

Workshop Co-Chairmen:Workshop Co-Chairmen:James R. Mahoney,James R. Mahoney, Environmental Consultant and former Director, U.S. Climate Change Science Program (2002 – 2006) Antonio J. Busalacchi, Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland

The Earth System will experience real climate change over the next 50 years, substantially exceeding the scope of natural variability. A paramount question facing society is how to adapt to these changes. Success will require unprecedented collaborations and powerful partnerships between climate scientists and the consumers of climate information

The University of Maryland, College Park invites you to attend a two-day workshop at their Inn and Conference Center, October 22-23, 2007.

CPC/CTB participants: Ed O’Lenic Mel Gelman

“Future Climate Forecast Products from CPC”

New Environmental Forecast ProductsNew Environmental Forecast Products

Possible Threats-Summer 2020: hot, dry and

unhealthy

Swimming and Fishing

restrictions

Tropical bacteria alertsExpect fisheries

downturn;

health threats

Health warning: Limit outdoor

activities; expect brownouts

Frequent drought and Asian dust threats continue

Major fires Agricultural production at 50%, blowing dust

Major fisheries regime

change likely

Air quality alerts

– 75% of days