nchrp project 03-110: estimating the life …onlinepubs.trb.org/onlinepubs/webinars/160419.pdf ·...
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NCHRP PROJECT 03-110: ESTIMATING THE LIFE-CYCLE COST OF INTERSECTION DESIGNS
Kittelson & Associates, Inc.
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
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Life-Cycle Costs in Practice
Current intersection evaluation practices vary widely by jurisdiction. Nearly all agencies consider the upfront initial capital
improvement costs. Operation and maintenance costs are difficult for
agencies to quantify. Some agencies consider the societal costs of crashes in
evaluating alternatives, though these costs are typically used as informative values.
Overall a desire to better compare life-cycle costs but no clear direction or established procedure.
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NCHRP Project 03-110: Project Objective Develop a spreadsheet-based tool for comparing
life-cycle costs of alternative designs for new and existing intersections
Demonstrate the application of the tool to range of options: Stop-controlled Traffic signal Roundabout Innovative designs
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Project Team
Kittelson & Associates, Inc. Lee Rodegerdts, P.E., Principal Investigator Team: Wayne Kittelson, David Reinke, Joe Bessman, Matt
Kittelson & Julia Knudsen
ECONorthwest Carl Batten and Mike Wilkerson
Write Rhetoric – Technical Editing Danica Rhoades
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NCHRP Project Panel and Staff
Rick Collins – Panel Chair
Gilbert Chlewicki Matthew Enders Jason Firman William Lambert John Powell
Edward James Smaglik Jin Wang Richard Cunard, TRB Hilary Isebrands,
FHWA Ray Derr, NCHRP staff
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Products Available Online
TRB website http://www.trb.org/Main/Blurbs/173928.aspx
Contents Final Report Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Six Case Studies Overview presentation (similar to this webinar)
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
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Why B-C Analysis?
Consistent framework for comparing outcomes Assign dollar values to monetizable outcomes Values of outcomes based on market values
Estimate present value of project costs over entire project lifetime
Compare outcomes over time by discounting future costs
Results are understandable Decision-makers General public
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How to Do B-C Analysis
Select a base case For base case and alternatives:
Calculate cost streams by year over life of alternative Convert costs to present value using discount rate
Compute results Net present value Benefit-cost ratio Rate of return (seldom used)
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Benefit-Cost Analysis
All alternatives are referenced to base case Benefits = reduction in user & nonuser costs
compared to base case; e.g.: Travel time savings Crash reductions Emission reductions
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Computing Outcomes
Net present value (NPV)
= PVBenefits – PVCosts + PVSalvage
Benefit-cost ratio = PVBenefits
PVCosts - PVSalvage
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Computing Net Present Value
Future year costs converted to equivalent present year costs using a discount rate
Discount rate reflects tradeoffs between current and future costs and benefits
Discount rate = marginal productivity of capital + risk factor
Typical discount rate for long-term public projects: ~4%
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Compare Different Alternatives
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Compare Examples
Types of transportation alternatives
Supply-side vs demand side
Capacity expansion vs operations management
Scale Single intersection vs corridor
Lifetime Short-term “quick-fix” vs intersection redesign
Types of policies
Transportation vs other societal investments
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Costing Outcomes: Costs
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Outcome Examples
Planning & construction
Planning cost Engineering cost Right of way Equipment
Operations & Maintenance
Lighting Repaving Utility costs
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Costs
Agency costs Agency costs should be familiar and relatively easy for
agencies to estimate Unit costs may vary considerably between regions. We
supply defaults based on national averages, but agencies likely may want to override.
Guidance is focused on definitions and what to include/exclude
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Costing Outcomes: Benefits
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Outcome Examples
Travel time Cost per hour by user type
Reliability Cost per standard deviation in travel time (𝜎𝜎𝑇𝑇); options pricing
Safety Cost/crash by type
Emissions Cost/ton of pollutant by type • Criteria pollutants • Greenhouse gases
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
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LCCET Overview 19
Calculations • User inputs • Calculate
benefits & costs
Outputs • NPV, B/C • PV by category
Travel demand model • Link volumes
• Vehicles • Passengers
Operations analysis • Travel time/delay
Post processing • Reliability • Emissions • Crashes
Costs & lifetime • Capital • O&M • Lifetime of each alt.
Analysis parameters • Value of time • Emissions costs • Unit crash costs • Discount rate
LCCET
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Addressing Different Lifespans - Overview The LCCET treats life cycle as a variable to provide
flexibility to adapt to the intersection and analysis context and analysis needs.
Common analysis life cycle is likely to range between 20 and 40 years.
Consider terminal and salvage values, when analysis period is shorter than the useful intersection life.
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Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes
Identify the spatial and geometric layout of each alternative.
Identify influence limits for each of the concepts. Back of queue Start of deceleration
Overlay these influence limits, and establish a cordon line based on the most distant influence limit of the alternatives being considered.
Record performance metrics for all vehicles from the time they enter to the time they exit this cordon limit for each of the concepts.
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Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes
Unsaturated Conditions
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Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes
Unsaturated Conditions
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Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes
Unsaturated Conditions
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Cordon line
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Addressing Varying Spatial Scopes
Oversaturated Conditions Cordon line must encompass network area where queuing
exists or traffic volume/pattern changes occur. Microsimulation may be required. Separate consideration of Cordon Area and Modeling Area.
System and Context Considerations Consider the area beyond the study intersection (e.g. land
use, signal coordination, nearby failing intersections, etc.)
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Addressing New Intersection Types
Use of the cordon methodology allows the LCCET to address new intersection types
Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon
Life-cycle costs for new intersection types may be constrained by available capital and maintenance cost estimates or crash predictions
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
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Case Study Overview Case Study Location/Agency Base Case Alternatives
1 Eagle Road/State Street
Ada County Highway District Eagle, Idaho
Existing Signalized Intersection
• Multilane Roundabout • Enhanced Signal
2 Powell Butte Hwy/Neff Road
Deschutes County Bend, Oregon
Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled
• Two Offset Intersections • Single-lane Roundabout
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Jackson School Road/Scotch Church Road/Meek Road
Washington County Hillsboro, Oregon
Existing Offset Side-street Stop Controlled
• Single-lane Roundabout • Signalized Intersection
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SR-123 (San Pablo Ave)/Bancroft Way
Caltrans Alameda County, California
Existing Two-Way Stop Controlled • Signalized Intersection
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US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway
Administration Cecil County, Maryland
Existing Signalized Intersection
• Median U-Turn Intersection
6 Hypothetical Example All-Way Stop Controlled • Signalized Intersection • Single-lane Roundabout
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Example Case Study #1
Intersection Alternatives Evaluation Eagle Road/State Street intersection
Ada County Highway District (ACHD)
Eagle, Idaho
Purpose: Develop a prioritized implementation plan identifying a preferred configuration and concept design for the Eagle Road/State Street intersection.
Intersection alternatives considered Alternative 0: Base case (existing signalized intersection)
Alternative 1: Roundabout (construction of a multilane roundabout)
Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection (expansion of the intersection as a signalized intersection)
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Example Case Study #1
Alternative 1: Multilane Roundabout
Alternative 2: Enhanced signalized intersection
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Example Case Study #1 Alternative: Base Case Roundabout Enhanced Signal
Base Analysis Year 2014 Future Analysis Year 2035
Average Annual Daily Traffic (veh/d)
Base 38,000
Future 67,000
Total Entering Volume (Base) (veh/h)
AM 1,553 PM 2,117 Midday 2,164
Total Entering Volume (Future) (veh/h)
AM 2,671 PM 3,535 Midday 3,484
Annual Trucks Base 2% Future 4%
Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians Not considered
Delay (Base) (s/veh)
AM 25 5 25 PM 27 30 27 Midday 26 28 26
Delay (Future) (s/veh)
AM 43 11 77 PM 93 49 77 Midday 93 45 72
Base Year Safety Performance
PDO Crashes 5 7 5 Injury Crashes 2 1 2 Fatal Crashes 0 0 0
Future Year Safety Performance
PDO Crashes 10 11 9 Injury Crashes 4 1 4 Fatal Crashes 0 0 0
Planning/Engineering Costs $0 $622,819 $687,714 Right-of-Way Costs $0 $811,000 $474,554 Construction Costs $0 $3,111,000 $3,438,572 Net Present Value $131,724,932 $76,412,191 $131,099,984
Benefits/Costs n/a 13.03 1.14
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Example Case Study #1
Roundabout alternative results in the least cost.
Enhanced signalized intersection alternative results in relatively small savings. An increased likelihood
of crashes Modest savings in delay.
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Example Case Study #5
Conceptual Design and Analysis US 40/MD 213 Maryland State Highway Administration (SHA) Elkton, Maryland
Purpose Relieve congestion and improve intersection safety
Candidate Safety Improvement Location Substantial number of crashes
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Example Case Study #5
Intersection Alternatives Alternative 0: Base case (existing offset T-intersections) Alternative 1: Median U-turn intersection
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Example Case Study #5 Determining the Delay at a Traditional Intersection
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Example Case Study #5 Determining the Delay at a MUT Intersection
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Example Case Study #5
Three components make up a vehicle’s travel time within the cordon line. Running time Geometric delay Control delay
Vehicles must be tracked between the same entry and exit points on the cordon line.
𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝑻𝑻 = �𝑻𝑻𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒕𝒕𝒓𝒓𝒓𝒓 𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝒕𝑻𝑻 + �𝒓𝒓𝑻𝑻𝒈𝒈𝒕𝒕𝑻𝑻𝒕𝒕𝑻𝑻𝒕𝒕𝒈𝒈 𝒅𝒅𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝒅𝒅+ �𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒈𝒓𝒓𝒕𝒕𝑻𝑻𝒈𝒈𝑻𝑻 𝒅𝒅𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝑻𝒅𝒅
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Example Case Study #5
Comparison of Travel Time 38
Move-ment
PM Volume
(vph)
Running Time (s) Geometric Delay (s) Control Delay (s) Travel Time (s)
Existing Median U-turn Existing Median
U-turn Existing Median U-turn Existing Median
U-turn
EBL 147 34 77 8.9 21.9 62 41 105 140 EBT 698 45 45 0.0 0.0 31 23 76 67 EBR 390 34 34 8.5 8.5 115 21 158 63 WBL 114 28 77 8.9 21.9 42 60 79 159 WBT 1060 43 43 0.0 0.0 36 43 79 87 WBR 199 28 28 8.5 8.5 6 18 42 54 NBL 338 35 74 8.9 21.9 58 43 101 139 NBT 418 20 20 0.0 0.0 245 32 264 52 NBR 48 30 30 8.5 8.5 50 32 89 71 SBL 206 30 59 8.9 21.9 50 70 89 150 SBT 382 20 20 0.0 0.0 80 39 99 58 SBR 130 35 35 8.5 8.5 0 42 43 85
Weighted Average 35 42 3.3 5.8 69 36 107 85
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Example Case Study #5 39 Alternative: Base Case Median U-Turn
Base Analysis Year 2008 Future Analysis Year 2035 Average Annual Daily Traffic (veh/d)
Base 40,045
Future 48,054
Total Entering Vehicles (Base) (veh/h)
AM 3,304 PM 4,130 Midday n/a
Total Entering Vehicles (Future) (veh/h)
AM n/a PM 4,956 Midday n/a
Annual Trucks Base 5% Future 5%
Transit/Bicycles/Pedestrians n/a
Delay (Base) (s/veh)
AM n/a n/a PM 107 85 Midday n/a n/a
Delay (Future) (s/veh)
AM n/a n/a PM 131 104 Midday n/a n/a
Base Year Safety Performance
PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a
Future Year Safety Performance
PDO Crashes n/a n/a Injury Crashes n/a n/a Fatal Crashes n/a n/a
Planning/Engineering Costs n/a n/a Right-of-way Costs n/a n/a Construction Costs n/a n/a Net Present Value $5,560,511 $4,527,909 Benefits/Costs Estimated capital costs not included in analysis
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Example Case Study #5
Median U-turn intersection alternative would cost nearly $1 million less than the existing base alternative over the life of the intersection. Auto passenger time cost
parameter
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Project Objective and Overview Principles of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Overview of Life-Cycle Cost Estimation Tool Demonstration of Tool and Case Studies Conclusions
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Conclusions
Converts units of various metrics into Net Present Value Provide the user with national average values for various costs
while allowing calibration Uses “cordon” concept
Allows maximum flexibility to analyze a range of conditions: Single intersection
Complex intersection or interchange
Series of intersections
Subarea or area
Assumes that all significant differences among alternatives are captured within the cordon and can be estimated within the cordon
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Conclusions (cont.)
LCCET Potential Applications Analysis of alternative designs for a single
intersection/interchange or set of intersections/interchanges Programming/prioritizing/funding decisions across a large
area Alternatives evaluations for corridors and subareas Signal retiming study along corridor Intersection maintenance/replacement/upgrade
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NCHRP Project 03-110
Questions?
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