nci bwr 2020 may presentation final2...what are the north county indicators (nci)? nci is a...
TRANSCRIPT
Agenda Part 1 - Overview of North County IndicatorsWhat are the North County Indicators and why do they matter?
Part 2 - State of North County (Pre-CV19)What can we learn about the State of North County before COVID-19?
Part 3 - What’s Next for North County (Post-CV19)How can North County recover stronger from COVID-19?
Part 1An Overview of the North County Indicators (NCI)
What are the North County
Indicators (NCI)?
NCI is a quantitative and holistic set of metrics that describe North County’s economy.
Originally North County Prospects, NCI has evolved from 2013 into 47 metrics and 76 datasets that represent five key components of the North County Economy;
• People
• Economy
• Innovation
• Place
• Education
Map of North County San Diego’s North County, which includes 9 cities and considerable unincorporated areas within the County
Inland includes:San Marcos
EscondidoFallbrook
Palomar MountainBorrego Springs
Central Inland includes:Poway
RamonaJulian
Coast includes:Camp PendletonCarlsbadOceansideVista
Central Coast includes:Del MarEncinitas
Five Key Components
People The 11 People indicators provide an understanding North County’s evolving population, demographics, and household income.
Economy These 7 Economy indicators provide a comprehensive picture of the region’s employment, industry clusters, and wages.
Innovation The 7 Innovation indicators track business births and deaths, R&D investments, and venture capital funding.
Education These 11 Education indicators highlight the population’s educational attainment and K-12 metrics ranging from CAASP scores to dropout rates.
Place These 11 Place indicators provide data on North County’s housing, transportation, commercial real estate, and water usage.
Part 2State of North County (Pre-CV19)
High Concentration
Clusters are Key to Growth
Leading Industries• High wage & High Concentration industries include:Defense, Aerospace, Transportation, & Manufacturing (DATM), & Information & Communication Technologies (ICT) • Lower wage & High Concentration industries include:Agriculture & Food and Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation
Tiered Employment• Tier 1 jobs have grown by 26% from 2009 through 2019• Tier 2 employment in North County has grown 8% • Tier 3 jobs have grown by 19% over the same time period
High-Concentration
Industry Clusters
Biotechnology & Biomedical Devices
Information & Communication Technologies
Building and Design
Defense, Aerospace & Transportation Manufacturing
Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation
Agriculture & Food
$0
$20,000
$40,000
$60,000
$80,000
$100,000
$120,000
$140,000
-15% 5% 25% 45% 65% 85% 105% 125% 145% 165%
Avg.
Ann
ual E
arni
ngs (
2019
)
Employment Growth (2014-2019)
*Size of bubble is relative to the number of jobs in 2019
Job Growth by Quality
2009 - 2019
26%
8%
19%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Tier 1 Tier 2 Tier 3
North County’s K-12
Educational System Scores
High Marks
• As a region North County schools were 41% to 25% higher than California Average for Math & English Language Arts Proficiency.
• Each of the four areas in North County scored above the state average for Math & English Language Arts. NC Central Coast and NC Central Inland were higher than comparable counties including Orange County & Santa Clara County.
• North County’s Annual College Degree Completions in STEM have increased by almost 200% from 2009 to 2018, more than three times faster than California’s increase in this metric.
43.8%
75.7%
40.1%
65.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC Central Inland
State Average
CAASPP Math Proficiency
in North County
54.2%
80.5%
54.2%
72.5%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC CentralInland
State Average
CAASPP English Language Arts
Proficiencyin North County
$10,500
$11,000
$11,500
$12,000
$12,500
$13,000
NC Coast NC Central Coast NC Inland NC Central Inland
State Average
Average Spending per
Student
Household Incomes were rising in North County where
they were needed most
Median annual household incomes were on the rise in North County. In the most recent data, NC Inland’s household income increased by 12% (lowest median income in NC) and NC Central Coast increased by 6% (highest median income in NC).
This reversed a trend that was identified in NCI’s 2019, of growing income disparities between areas of North County.
An Economically Diverse Population
19%
25%
31%
25%21%
29% 31%
20%
13%17%
29%
41%
14%
23%
35%
28%25%
29% 30%
16%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Less than $35,000 $35,000 to $74,999 $75,000 to $149,999 $150,000 or more
North County (Total) NC Coastal NC Central Coast NC Central Inland NC Inland
Median Household Income in
North County
Part 3What’s Next for North County (Post-CV19)
Expand our regional capacity as a Research & Development hub for Science-Based Solutions
How does North County become a hub for solving emerging risk factors related to weather, seismic activity & pandemics?
1
Science-Based Innovation Ecosystem
Identify opportunities for Emerging Supply Chains
How does North County build upon its manufacturing muscle to strengthen its supply chain and provide opportunities for firms in the region?
2
North County Manufacturing
Employment
10%
5%
7%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
North County Rest of San DiegoCounty
California
North County Manufacturing1. Aerospace products and parts manufacturing (~8,400
North County jobs)
2. Navigational, Measuring, Electromedical and Control instrument manufacturing (~7,800 North County jobs)
3. Communications equipment manufacturing (~5,000 North County jobs)
4. Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing (~4,500 North County jobs)
5. Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing (~3,500 North County jobs)
North County’s Largest
Manufacturing Segments by Employment
Examine & Invest in Regional Economic ResiliencyHow can North County a) resist or minimize the economic
impact of a “shock event”, and
b) recover quickly from such an event?
3
1. Industry Cluster Diversification• Connectivity to a broad array of customers
& diverse sources of income• A real strength of North County’s economy
2. Household-level Financial Stability• Measured by household level debt-to-
income ratio• A mixed measure for North County with
higher than average income, but considerable economic distress in many North County communities in a high-cost environment
Key Categories for Assessing
Regionals Economic
Resilience I
3. Economic agility, entrepreneurship, and innovation• Ability to create new businesses, products and/or
services in response to shocks or disruptions• This could be a strength of North County but will
require more data and analysis for a confident assessment.
4. Regional infrastructure & preparedness for volatile weather events, pandemics & seismic activityInfrastructure Assessment should include;
• Healthcare• Bandwidth• Electrical Grid• Transportation• Water
Key Categories for Assessing
Regionals Economic
Resilience II
Rebuild & Strengthen the Tourism & Hospitality Ecosystem
How can North County effectively respond to the considerable impact CV-19 has had on Tourism, Hospitality & Recreation (THR)?
4
North County Manufacturing1. Many of the region’s lowest paid workers are
in THR and find themselves out of work
2. Many of the region’s youth develop valuable non-technical skills in their first job in THR
3. Generates revenue for City’s through TOT & Visitor’s Sales Tax
4. The industry plays a valuable role in the region’s quality of life
5. Also the THR cluster in North County under threat from rising sea levels and the impact that has on disappearing beaches
Regional Implications &
Considerations for the Decline in
Tourism & Hospitality
Invest in Education & Upskilling
How can North County protect one of its most valuable resources while supporting residents who will need to transition from one employment pathway to another?
5
1. Increase local investment in the region’s high-performing K-12 system, a key component in attracting regional talent
2. Facilitate collaboration between schools and districts as they support and provide additional resources for teachers adapting to new learning environments & strategies
3. Connect Universities, Colleges and K-12 with industry leaders to better understand the changing skills needed for the new world of work
Strategies for North County’s
Educational Ecosystem
Create Economic Opportunity for Populations that have not flourished
How does North County provide economic opportunity for all its residents?
6
Poverty Rate Among All Residents
in North County
Increase Availability of Housing While Maintaining North County’s High Quality of Life
How can North County meet its myriad of housing needs for the workforce, the homeless, and attracting entrepreneurs & talent
7
Josh WilliamsPresident and Principal Researcher
To get involved in North County COVID-19 Solutions - go towww.nceconomicsummit.org