Necessary Policies

Per Pinstrup-Andersen

Celebrating 100 Years of Dr.

Norman Borlaug

Obregon, Mexico, 25-28 March 2014

12

Future yield increases will come from

1/3 Breeding

1/3 Agronomy

1/3 Policy

Future yield increases will come from

1/3 Breeding

1/3 Agronomy

1/3 Policy

Hans Braun’s Assessment

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

Reasonable incomes for farmers

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

Reasonable incomes for farmers

Reasonable prices for consumers

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

Reasonable incomes for farmers

Reasonable prices for consumers

Meeting Non-food Demands

What do we want from food and agricultural systems?

Food Security and good nutrition

Efficient and Sustainable Resource Use

Reasonable incomes for farmers

Reasonable prices for consumers

Meeting Non-food Demands

Support of general economic growth

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

Adaptation to climate change

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

Adaptation to climate change

Reduced poverty and malnutrition

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

Adaptation to climate change

Reduced poverty and malnutrition

Appropriate response to diet transition

What do we want from agricultural research?

More food and non-food per unit of land,

water, labor and capital

Lower unit-costs of production and mktg.

Adaptation to climate change

Reduced poverty and malnutrition

Appropriate response to diet transition

Stability in production and prices

Annual Average Population Growth Rate, %

Billions of Middle Class Asians and Percent of the

Global Middle Class 2009-2030

Year Billions Percent

2009 0.5 28

2020 1.7 54

2030 3.2 66

Source: Kharas 2010

The Asian Middle Class’ Purchasing Power (Billions 2005 PPP Dollars) and Percent of the World’s Middle

Class’ Total Purchasing Power

Year Billions Percent

2009 5.0 23

2020 14.8 42

2030 32.6 59

Source: Kharas 2010

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Feeder roads

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Feeder roads

Appropriate institutions

Farmer associations

Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Feeder roads

Appropriate institutions

Farmer associations

Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)

Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Feeder roads

Appropriate institutions

Farmer associations

Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)

Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers

Water management infrastructure

Suggested Policy Priority 1

Investments in rural infrastructure, domestic markets and Human Resources

Feeder roads

Appropriate institutions

Farmer associations

Public sector institutions (contract enforcement, weights and measures, etc.)

Market information, access to inputs, e.g. seed, fertilizers

Water management infrastructure

Primary education, health care and improved sanitation

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)

Public goods investments, including research

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)

Public goods investments, including research

Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)

Public goods investments, including research

Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders

Establish competitive funds for technology development

Suggested Policy Priority 2

Enhanced policy incentives for the private sector to invest in agriculture and the supply chain Savings and credit institutions for farmers and traders

Risk management tools for farmers and traders (for market and production risks)

Public goods investments, including research

Strengthen the purchasing power of small-holders

Establish competitive funds for technology development

Assure incentives for private sector innovation

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Regulation of Land Grabbing

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Regulation of Land Grabbing

Clarity on water and land tenure

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Regulation of Land Grabbing

Clarity on water and land tenure

Reduce food waste and losses

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Regulation of Land Grabbing

Clarity on water and land tenure

Reduce food waste and losses

Move towards full costing

Suggested Policy Priority 3

Remove international trade distortions (both

import and export restrictions)

Regulation of Land Grabbing

Clarity on water and land tenure

Reduce food waste and losses

Move towards full costing

Pursue multiple-win solutions

The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy

Keeping food prices low

The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy

Keeping food prices low

Price stabilization

Price Volatility

Source: Minot, N. (2013). How Volatile Are African Food Prices?

IFPRI Research Brief 19, IFPRI, Washington, DC.

World Market Selected African Countries

The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy

Keeping food prices low

Price stabilization

Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies

The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy

Keeping food prices low

Price stabilization

Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies

Protecting food in an eco-economy

The Policy-Maker’s Temptation: Price Policy

Keeping food prices low

Price stabilization

Social safety nets, (un)targeted subsidies

Protecting food in an eco-economy

Fiscal costs, supply response and surpluses

Thai Rice Mountains

Source: AFP Photo/Pornchai Kittiwongsakul

India – Grain Stock 2005/06 – 2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

2005/06 2007/08 2009/10 2011 2012

80

Millioner

Tons

65

54

25

15

Surplus Grain in India 2012

Maize Stocks in Zambia 2012

Photo courtesy William J. Burke

Rotting Maize in Zambia 2012

Photo courtesy William J. Burke

Up Close: Maize in Zambia 2012

Photo courtesy William J. Burke

Annual Maize Production in Zambia, 2005/08 and 2010/2011

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

2005-08 2010-11

2.8

Million

Tons

1.4

Source: Jayne et al., 2011

Rhetoric

Declarations

Plans

Targets

Action

http://www.fao.org/cfs/cfs-hlpe