San Francisco 1906 Earthquake and FIRESan Francisco 1906 Earthquake and FIRE

A study of the disaster response in the context of complexity theoryA study of the disaster response in the context of complexity theory

Maisam AbbasiLisa Arnaud Max BoddyWei BiJovita De LoatchJune 15, 2013NECSI Summer School 2013

The DisasterDead - More than 3,000

• A report of U.S. Army relief operations (Greely, 1906) recorded:

◦ 498 deaths in San Francisco

◦ 64 deaths in Santa Rosa

◦ 102 deaths in and near San Jose

• A 1972 NOAA report suggested that 700-800 was a reasonable figure.

• Gladys Hansen and Emmet Condon, after extensive research, estimated that over 3000 deaths were caused directly or indirectly by the catastrophe. The population of San Francisco at the time was about 400,000.

Homeless - 225,000

• 225,000 from a population of about 400,000.

Buildings Destroyed - 28,000

• "The 3-day conflagration following the earthquake caused substantially more damage than did the earthquake. The area of the burned district covered 4.7 square mile..." (NOAA report). By one count:

◦ Wood buildings lost = 24,671

Brick buildings lost = 3,168

◦ Total buildings lost = 28,188

Monetary Loss - More than $400 million

• Estimated property damage (NOAA report): $400,000,000 in 1906 dollars from earthquake and fire, $80,000,000 from the earthquake alone.

Copyright: Laura Hartman Maestro

Defining the Complexity Profile Scale

-Cluster of agents (divided by occupation)

Miners (M)Sailors/Argonauts (A)Providers of illicit services (I)Bankers (B)Port officials/workers (P)Food producers (Farmers/Fishers) (F) Commodity providers (e.g. equipment, materials) (D)Tradespeople working in the building and construction industry (C),

Members of government US Federal (U) and SF local (G).

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Miners (M)

geographical remoteness and small size, mining colonies were linked into a vast transportation, communications, demographic, and economic network on a national and international scale (Hardesty 1988:1).

As a collective, highly connected to other industries including banking, personal (illicit) services, port operations and commodity retailers.

Formed a highly flexible, adaptable and self-organising network, with minimal legal structures and absence of practical enforcement mechanisms.

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Sailors/Argonauts(A), The famous Barbary Coast of the mid to late 1800s and its associated saloons, boarding houses, and gambling parlors was the home to a shifting population of stevedores, sailors, merchant marines, etc.

Mariners themselves upon leaving their vessels were not subject to the same level of regulation, allowing for more random and frequent interactions with other agents/sub-systems, particularly the service providers and miners.

Outside of the shipping company regime, sailors were almost completely independent, with extensive freedom in their activities.

The Port (P) as an industry was naturally a central hub of the city and its operations would have been subject to considerable coordination.

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Providers of Illicit Services(I), Nearly all drinking and dancing establishments in the area were destroyed in the fire that followed the 1906 earthquake. Prior to the quake their activities they sought extensive freedom in their activities of prostitution, and gambling. However, in response to the calamity the banded together and within months a dozen or so were rebuilt and back in business.

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Food producers (farmers and fishermen)(F), were highly independent and diversified

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Commodity providers (e.g. equipment, materials) (D) and Tradespeople (C) working in the building and construction industry were highly independent and diversified.

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Bankers (B), The 1906 San Francisco earthquake shook the financial markets of the West Coast and briefly shut down the Pacific Stock Exchange. They were also highly independent and diversified of each other but were hiearchically organized by their funding source.

System componentsFine scale description of the network

Government (G), the army was brought in to control the fires (which they did with dynamite and even artillery barrages) and stop the looting. In all, 500 presumed looters were shot. Some destruction and loss of life occurred outside San Francisco, but the bulk of the 3.000 casualties were to be regretted in the Golden Gate city itself. Three quarters of its population of 400.000 were made homeless. Half of those fled across the Bay to Oakland and Berkeley, others took up residence in massive camps of shacks and tents at Golden Gate Park and the Presidio, among other places.

Disaster Response

At large scale –

•Minimal organization/low complexity

•8 member committee appointed; federal gvt funding

•Under-resourced city emergency services

•Federal govt – funding and army services.

•Fires caused by failed army response!

Fine scale –

•highly self-organising, high complexity

•Citizens required to work in cooperation ; communal soup kitchens

•Citizens response was rapid and directly responded to diverse needs (shelter, food)

•BUT: Looting and riots; racism (Chinese excluded from city/community efforts)

Recovery not Transformation

Return to (semi) equilibrium

2 years for major recovery effort – city system weakened but no collapse

Strategic objective - fast return to “Bus. As usual”

Strategic ‘cover up’ process - minimize loss of investment

Building standards relaxed – short term goals prioritized

Engineered resilience (return to equilibrium ASAP)

System stays in same basin of attraction, but future vulnerability

How complex is the system?

Shannon Entropy - Impact on the City-We looked upon the interrelationships

LABOR - Before the Earthquake

LABOR - The Earthquake

labor - During the Fire

labor - Beginning the Recovery

labor - Restoration from the Earthquake

Economy - Before the Earthquake

Economy - During the Earthquake

Economy - During the Fire

Economy - Beginning the Restoration

Economy - Restoration

Conclusion

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