neda presentation on "cargo transport prospects"
TRANSCRIPT
Transport Summit 2014:Cargo Transport Prospects Amid Economic Growth
Deputy Director- General Emmanuel F. Esguerra
National Economic and Development Authority
23 April 2014
2
Outline
I. Recent Economic Performance
II. Near- Term Outlook/ Medium- Term Target
III. The Transport Sector
IV. Policy Directions
3
I. RECENT ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE
The Philippine economy has been growing robustly…
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic and Development Authority.
Philippine Real GDP at 2000 Prices (Millions Php)
(1960 to 2013)
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
0
1,000,000
2,000,000
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000Real GDP growth
6.8% (2012)
7.2% (2013)
4
On the demand side, although household spending continued to have the largest contribution to GDP, investment is increasingly becoming a major driver of growth.
1991-2001 2001-2010 2010-2012 2013-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Household Final Consumption Expenditure Government Final Consumption Expenditure InvestmentNet Exports
in ppt
2.9%4.8% 6.0%
7.2%
5
On the supply side, the services sector still takes the lion’s share of economic growth, but industry, particularly manufacturing, is increasingly picking up as a major growth driver.
1991-2001 2001-2010 2010-2012 20130.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
Agriculture Industry Services
in ppt
2.9%
4.8%
6.0%
7.2%
6
Strong macroeconomic fundamentals supported this remarkable performance
Low and Stable inflation
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
*
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Headline Infla-tion
Note: Actual inflation figures are based on the 2006 CPI series.*January – March 2014
Favorable interest rate & sound banking system
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0
5
10
15
20
0
2
4
6
8
10
Real interest rates, LHS**
CAR, LHS***
NPL Ratio, RHS*
* December 2013, **As of Jan 2014, *** As of Sept 2013
Sustainable fiscal and external position
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
NG Debt to GDP (LHS) Fiscal Balance to GDP (RHS)2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
0.010.020.030.040.050.060.0
0.01.02.03.04.05.06.0
52.744.1
37.131.3 32.6 30.1 27.0
24.1 21.51.9
5.75.4
0.1
5.0
3.6
2.5
2.83.5
External Debt to GDP Ratio (LHS)Current Acct. to GDP Ratio (RHS)
7
ANNUAL PLAN TARGETS
Indicators Baseline (2012)
2014 2015 2016
Gross Domestic Product (%) 6.8 6.5 -7.5 7.0-8.0 7.5-8.5 GVA in agriculture 2.8 (0.9)-0.1 2.0-3.0 2.5-3.5
GVA in industry 6.8 9.8-11.0 8.6-9.7 9.3-10.3
GVA in services 7.6 6.0-6.9 6.8-7.8 7.2-8.1
II. NEAR TERM OUTLOOK/MEDIUM TERM TARGETWe aim to sustain the growth momentum
8
More vibrant manufacturingRobust construction and logisticsBuoyant international and domestic tourismUpbeat wholesale and retail trade Robust Business Process Management (BPM) fueling growth in
the real estate, renting and business activities sectorAgribusiness
Supply
Demand
Fixed capital formation: higher public construction, including infrastructure and reconstruction; robust private investment in construction and durable equipment
Strong household consumption: strong remittance inflows, better employment opportunities, and improved consumer confidence
Stronger export of services: good prospects on business process management
Improvement of external trade conditions
Supported by the following growth drivers…
9
III. TRANSPORT AND STORAGE SECTOR PERFORMANCE
From 2009-2013, the sector grew by an average of 4.1 percent comprising 2.8 percent share of the country’s total output.
Transport and Storage Sector Real Growth Rate (%)
(2009 to 2013)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
-2.2
1.4
7.1
8.3
6.2
AHFF (10.4%)
Industry (32.7%)
Services (54.0%)
Land
Water
Air
Storage and services incidental to transport
Transport and Storage Sector Share to Real GDP (%)
(2013)
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic and Development Authority.
10
Transport and Storage Contribution to Real GDP
(2009 to 2013)in ppt
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013-0.10
-0.05
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
Land WaterAir Storage and services incidental to transport
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic and Development Authority.
On the supply side, the sector’s contribution to real GDP improved since 2009 although remained modest since 2011 at around 0.2 percentage points.
-0.07
0.04
0.19
0.23
0.18
11
Expenditure on Transport Equipment Contribution to Real GDP
(2009 to 2013)in ppt
Source: Philippine Statistics Authority and National Economic and Development Authority.
On the demand side, the demand for transport equipment continues to have positive contribution to economic growth
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 (0.60)
(0.40)
(0.20)
-
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
Road vehicles Railway transport Air transport Water transport
-0.03
0.97
0.38
0.82 0.78
12
CARGO TRANSPORT
Growth Performance of the Philippine Maritime Cargo Sector
Country/TerritoryThroughputs
(TEUs)Annual Growth
RateCongo 518,000 44.60%Ghana 889,129 30.00%Kenya 903,000 22.74%Mauritius 417,567 19.06%
Saudi Arabia 6,557,448 15.15%
Russian Federation 3,942,628 14.31%
South Africa 4,424,254 10.88%Philippines 5,720,749 8.68%China 155,017,351 7.73%Singapore 32,421,602 5.51%
ASEAN Country/Territory
Throughputs (TEUs)
Annual Growth Rate
Singapore 32,421,602 5.51%Malaysia 20,866,875 3.61%Indonesia 9,324,792 4.00%Thailand 7,373,298 2.80%
Vietnam 6,588,855 4.00%
Philippines 5,720,749 8.68%
Cambodia 246,465 4.00%Myanmar 208,914 4.00%Brunei Darsussalam 109,210 4.00%Laos - -
Top 10 Developing Countries with Highest Growth Rate in 2012
Container Port Throughput and Growth Rate for ASEAN Countries in 2012
Source: UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2013
13
Challenges and Constraints facing the Sector
o Need for adequate port infrastructure
o Support infrastructure for landside access to and from ports to production areas
o Lack of economies of scale
14
IV. POLICY DIRECTIONS
15
IV. POLICY DIRECTIONSCargo Transport in the Updated PDP 2011-2016
To support the expansion of Philippine industries, the government will encourage investments in the development of logistics infrastructure to cater to both domestic and international supply chains.
Review and develop/reform related policies and rules, such as customs practices; trans-shipment of cargoes through various modes (i.e. air-air, sea-air, and air-sea); and foreign shipping services along the entire multimodal transportation chain.
The government, in coordination with the private sector, will formulate and implement the National Logistics Plan and will target to reduce the share of logistics costs (including shipping) in the cost of goods and services from 23 percent to 15 percent by 2016.
Source: Philippine Development Plan Midterm Update , Chapter 3
16
IV. POLICY DIRECTIONS
Improve connectivity and efficiency among urban centers, regional growth hubs
Philippine Transport Infrastructure Development Framework Plan (World Bank) and Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila, Region III and IV-A (JICA).
Transport Summit 2014:Cargo Transport Prospects Amid Economic Growth
Deputy Director- General Emmanuel F. Esguerra
National Economic and Development Authority
23 April 2014