nemi technology roadmaps what’s new for...

APEX, April 2, 2003, Anaheim, California

NEMI Technology Roadmaps NEMI Technology Roadmaps

WhatWhat’’s new for 2002?s new for 2002?

2 Connect with and Strengthen your Supply ChainConnect with and Strengthen your Supply Chain

Critical EndorsementCritical Endorsement

• Gage McElroy is veryhappy about his copyof the 2002 NEMIRoadmap!


Topics to be DiscussedTopics to be Discussed

• NEMI background

• Roadmap process

• Key findings

• Current NEMI collaboration

• Gap analysis meetings

• Conclusion


SoftwareSolutions

B2B Collaboration

Marketing Design Manufacturing OrderFulfillment

Supply Chain ManagementInformation Technology

LogisticsCommunications

Business Practices

Build toOrder

Materials

ComponentsDesign

Technology

Customer

NEMI MissionNEMI Mission

Assure the Global Leadership of the North American Electronics Manufacturing Supply Chain

Equipment

MaterialsTransformation


What Does NEMI Do?What Does NEMI Do?

Leverage the combined power of membercompanies to provide industry leadership.

• NEMI roadmaps the needs of the North Americanelectronics industry.

• NEMI identifies gaps (both business & technical) in theNorth American infrastructure.

• NEMI conducts industry forums on emerging topics.

• NEMI stimulates R&D projects to fill gaps.

• NEMI establishes implementation projects to eliminategaps.

• NEMI stimulates standards to speed the introduction ofnew technology & business practices.


ProductNeeds

TechnologyEvolution

GAPAnalysisResearch

Projects

NEMI Implementation Cycle

NEMI Roadmap Cycle

CompetitiveSolutions

RoadmapProject

Completion

Industry SolutionNeeded

Academia

Government

NEMIUsers & Suppliers

Collaborate

No WorkRequired

Availableto Market

Place

Broad IndustryParticipation


NEMI Roadmap ValueNEMI Roadmap Value

• As General Dwight D. Eisenhower was fond of saying,

“It’s not the Plan (that is created) but the Planning

(process) that provides maximum insight.”

• Those who participate in the Roadmap creation get a

broad view of the supply chain landscape from

customers, competitors, and suppliers.

• Roadmaps can become “self-fulfilling prophecies” as

many within industry focus on the identified challenges

and benchmark their company against the user needs.


Roadmap LinkagesRoadmap Linkages

Optoelectronics andOptical Storage

InterconnectSubstrates—Ceramic

InterconnectSubstrates—Organic

Magnetic and OpticalStorage

Supply ChainManagement

Displays

Semiconductors

NEMIOptoelectronics

TWG

NEMIMass Data

Storage TWG

NEMI / SIAPackaging

TWG

NEMI / IPCInterconnect

TWG

NEMI Roadmap

NEMISupply ChainManagement

TWG


Attributes of NEMI RoadmapAttributes of NEMI Roadmap

• The NEMI Roadmap is customer driven, not technologydriven.

• The OEMs, through the Product Sector Champions, startthe roadmapping process by presenting what they needto remain competitive in the world market.

• Focus of Roadmaps is on manufacturing rather than endproducts.

• The Technology Working Groups (TWGs) identify gapsand showstoppers in the technology. They do notprovide solutions.

• The NEMI Technical Committee discusses these gapsand forms Technology Integration Groups (TIGs) toaddress them.


The Drivers: Product Sector ProfilesThe Drivers: Product Sector Profiles

ProductSector Characteristics

Consumer High-volume consumer products for which cost isthe primary driver

Portable Hand-held, battery-powered products driven bysize and weight reduction

Office Products which seek maximum performance withina few thousand dollar cost limit

LargeBusiness

High-end products for which performance is theprimary driver

Automotive/Defense

Products which must operate in extremeenvironments


Roadmap DevelopmentRoadmap Development

Product SectorsTWGs

Co

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Po

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Off

ice

Au

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Aer

osp

ace

Lar

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Bu

sin

ess

Sys

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Digital Silicon Technology

Design Technologies

Manufacturing Technologies

Components / Subsystems

Modeling, Thermal, etc.

Board Assembly, Test, etc.

Packaging, Substrates, Displays, etc.

Product Sector Needs vs. Technology Evolution

Business Processes Product Lifecycle Information Mgmt.


2002 Product Sector Champions2002 Product Sector Champions

Scott Mitchell, SunEvan Davidson, IBMLarge Business SystemProducts

Joshua Moody,Hewlett-Packard

Terry Dishongh,Intel

Office System Products

Kingshuk Banerji,Motorola

John ThomePortable Products

John Thome,Consultant

Consumer Products

Jim Spall, DelphiD.H.R. Sarma,Delphi

William E. Murphy,Imco

Automotive Products

Aerospace/DefenseProducts

Co-ChairChairProduct Sector


2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage2002 Roadmap Input & Coverage

• Developed by >350 individuals from 170organizations (including non-member companies)

• Covers 18 technology, business practice andinfrastructure topics in the areas of:– Semiconductor technology

– Business processes/technology

– Design technologies

– Manufacturing technologies

– Component subsystem technologies


Roadmap Structure - 18 TWGsRoadmap Structure - 18 TWGs

Semiconductor Technology Digital Silicon Technology

Business Processes/TechnologiesProduct Lifecycle Information Management

Design Technologies Modeling, Simulation, and Design Tools Thermal Management Environmentally Conscious ElectronicsManufacturing Technologies

Board AssemblyTest, Inspection, and MeasurementFinal Assembly

Component/Subsystem Technologies Connectors

PackagingInterconnection Substrates - OrganicInterconnection Substrates - CeramicPassive ComponentsRF ComponentsOptoelectronicsDisplaysMass Data StorageEnergy Storage Systems


2002 TWG Structure2002 TWG Structure

John Cartwright, Intel

Barbara Goldstein, NIST•Product Lifecycle InformationManagement

Mark Newton, AppleRobert C. Pfahl,Motorola

•Environmentally conscious electronics

Yogendra Joshi, GITRichard C. Chu, IBM•Thermal management

Dr. KoneruRamakrishna, Mot.

Dr. Sanjeev Sathe, IBM•Modeling, simulation & design tools

Design Technologies

Ben Poole, Sanmina-SCI

Business Processes/Technologies

Alan K. Allan, IntelPaolo Gargini, Intel•Digital Silicon Technology

Co-ChairChairSemiconductor Technology


2002 TWG Structure (cont.)2002 TWG Structure (cont.)

Dan Doughty, Sandia Labs• Energy Storage Systems

John MacWilliams, Consultant• Connectors

Roger F. Hoyt, IBMTom Coughlin, Consultant• Mass data storage

Dr. Norman Bardsley, USDCM. Robert Pinnel, USDC• Displays

Dr. Laura Turbini, CMAPJohn Stafford, Consultant• Optoelectronics

J. Stevenson Kenney, GITDr. V.J. Nair, Motorola• RF components

Dr. Joseph Dougherty, PSULarry Marcanti, Nortel• Passive components

Dr. Wayne Johnson, AuburnHoward Imhoff, Midas Vision• Interconnect subs – ceramic

Dieter Bergman, IPCJohn T. Fisher, NEMI• Interconnect subs – organic

Bill Bottoms, 3MT Solu.Joseph Adam, Skyworks• Packaging

Component/Subsystem Technologies

Dr. Reijo Tuokko, Tampere U.Mike Reagin, Delphi Delco• Final assembly

David Doyle, OrbotechMichael J. Smith, Teradyne• Test, inspection &measurement

Kirk VanDreel, Plexus

Alex Chen, Celestica

• Board Assembly

Co-ChairChairManufacturing Technology


Highlights of 2002 NEMI RoadmapHighlights of 2002 NEMI Roadmap

• Combined three existing TWGs into a new TWG (PLIM - ProductLifecycle Information Management) to facilitate identification andintegration of business and technology needs.

• Produced the first NEMI Roadmap on Electronic Connectors.

• Provided extended situation analysis/benchmarking reports on:– RF Components

– Optoelectronics

– Displays

– Mass Data Storage

– Energy Storage Systems

– Connectors

– Modeling, Simulation and Design Tools.

• Expanded emphasis on identifying market needs and businesssituation throughout roadmap.

• Maintained strong linkages with other technology roadmaps.

• Strengthened validation of predictions by 2000 NEMI Roadmap.


Table 6: Cellular Handset-Key Attribute NeedsTable 6: Cellular Handset-Key Attribute Needs

Table 6. Cellular handset: Key Attribute Needs!

Parameter Metric 2003 2005 2007 2013

RF section cost (for a given function) Relative to costs in2000

0.7 0.35 0.17 0.05

Number of freq bands 2 4 6 6

Number of Antennas (Diversity) 1 2 2 3

Number of Modulation formats 2 4 5 5

Data transmission rate (peak)? kb/s 14 160 1500 11,000

Transmit Peak-to-Average Ratio (worst) dB 4 dB 5 dB 5 dB 4 dB

Talk time minutes 90 120 160 200

Battery Voltage V 3.3 2.7 1.5 1.2

RF section area mm2 1800 1200 800 500

RF component thickness mm 2.5 1.5 1.5.MEMs 1.0,MEMS

From Portable emulator:

Average Component I/O Density I/O per cm2 70 80 100 140

Max Component I/O Density** I/O per cm2 280 320 350 450

I/O per Component, avg. # 3.6 4.0 4.4 5.0

Package I/O Pitch (Perimeter) mm 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5

Package I/O Pitch (Area array) mm 0.5 0.4 0.25 0.2

Max I/O per package I/O per pkg 256 288 312 360

Flip Chip I/O Pitch (Area) mm 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.10

Substrate Lines and Spaces microns 60 35 30 20

!


Situation Analysis-BusinessSituation Analysis-Business

• Market downturn since mid-2000 has greatly impactedforecasted growth projections.

• Business models across the electronics industry continue tochange, leading to significant shifts in roles andresponsibilities across the supply chain.

• Supply chain management offers the greatest potential forincreasing productivity.

• Manufacturing ramp-ups continue to accelerate in the portableand consumer segments.

• There has been a movement of manufacturing to China fromboth North America and Southeast Asia:

– Low-cost, highly skilled workforce

– Massive market opportunity


Reduced Business & Manufacturing MigrationReduced Business & Manufacturing Migration

WASHINGTON, March 19 (Reuters) - The U.S. technology sector lostabout 560,000 jobs in 2001 and 2002, according to a study by the AeA,a trade group that represents 3,000 technology companies. The sector'swork force fell 10% to 5.15 million in December 2002 from 5.7 million inJanuary 2001. The majority of the decline was in manufacturing, whichlost 415,000 jobs, a 20% decrease, to 1.62 million.

CALIFORNIA, March 24 (SMT) - Solectron has decided to scale back itsmanufacturing capacity and headcount. This will reduce Solectron’sheadcount by 12,000, bringing to 52,000 the total number of cuts madesince 2001. After the reduction, total will be 62,000 employees.

The company is also looking to reduce floor space by 3 million squarefeet as it seeks to consolidate facilities in North America. The firm willshift the majority of its facilities to lower-cost regions. When completed,about 67% of the company's workforce and 71% of Solectron’smanufacturing facilities will be in low-cost regions.


Opto Forecast For Capital SpendingOpto Forecast For Capital Spending


Direct Materials SourcingStrategic SourcingComponent & Supplier ManagementRFx ManagementChange Management

Product Data Management

Product Portfolio ManagementNPDI Intelligence

Program ManagementProject Management

Reporting

Product Data PublishingService Parts PlanningConfiguration Management

Product Structure (BOM)Document ManagementEngineering Change Mgt

Collaboration

Collaborative Product DesignProduct Design ToolsProcess Engineering

VisualizationCAD-to-CAD integration

Customer Needs ManagementRequirements Management

Preference AnalyticsETO/BTO/DTO

Data Flows

ERP

CRM

ERPSCMCRM

Product Lifecycle Management

ERP

PLIM as Depicted by AMR ResearchPLIM as Depicted by AMR Research


Situation Analysis-RegulatorySituation Analysis-Regulatory

• Environmental legislation in various product segmentswill require the electronics industry to share detailedmaterial content data of their products andcomponents.

• To meet regional legislative requirements,manufacturers must remove environmental “Materialsof Concern,” such as lead, mercury, bromine andcadmium.

• Globally, the electronics industry is facing end-of-lifeor producer responsibility legislation.


Table 2: Restricted Materials TemplateTable 2: Restricted Materials Template

!

Electronic Assembly(component,laminate,interconnect)!

Mechanical Assembly(plastic, metallichousings)

Other(battery, backlight,cables, packaging,etc.)

!NorthAmerica

AsiaNorthAmerica Asia

NorthAmerica Asia

Pb !2006 ’00-'05

!20068 !

2002 Pre-’02!

Cd !2006

! !Pre-’02

! !Pre-’02

!

Hg ’02-’06 2006!

’02-’06 20068 !’02-’06 Pre-’02

!

Sb ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! !

Cr(VI) !20068 ! !

20068 ! !Pre-’0211 !

OrganicBr/Cl

!20068 ’00-’05

! Pre-’0220068

! !20068 !

Europe EuropeEurope


Situation Analysis-MarketSituation Analysis-Market

• The use of cell phones for Web access is forecastedto exceed the use of personal computers for Webaccess by 2005-2006.

• PC growth is forecasted to be low/stalled through2003.

• The LCD industry will invest $40B in manufacturingcapacity for displays over the next several years tokeep up with demand.

• Wireless networking and automotive entertainmentare emerging as volume drivers.

• Wireless networking will grow to 2B units by 2006-2007.


Situation Analysis-TechnologySituation Analysis-Technology

• Growth in silicon device size is slowing, and the rate ofreduction in feature size will resume its historic three-year cycle.

• LCD and plasma displays are starting to encroach onthe CRT market.

• MEMS technology is making new capabilities feasiblesuch as: displays; servo control for mass data storage,optical switches, laser tuning; RF components,passives; and micro-batteries.

• System in Package (SiP) has emerged as the fastestgrowing packaging technology - although stillrepresenting a relatively small percentage of the unitvolume.


Identified Needs-Integrated DesignIdentified Needs-Integrated Design

• The extension of Moore’s Law beyond 2005 will requirenew packaging technologies to reduce the cost ofpackaging.

• DfX areas need greater attention (e.g. design for supplychain optimization).

• Co-design of mechanical, thermal, RF, and electricalperformance of the entire chip, package, and system is akey cross-cutting need.

• Improved communication between CAD designers andCAM users in the distributed design/manufacturingenvironment.

• Simulation tools are needed by 2005 for optoelectronicsand nano-electronics.


Identified Needs-Environmental/RegulatoryIdentified Needs-Environmental/Regulatory

• New materials, components, and processes need to bedeveloped, qualified, and introduced to:– Enhance recycleability

– Improve energy efficiency

– Reduce ecological impact

• New efficient methods need to be developed andimplemented for data exchange of environmentalattributes.– Each OEM imposes requirements on supply chain

vs.

– Industry standard solutions (the obvious choice!)


Identified Needs-Manufacturing TechnologiesIdentified Needs-Manufacturing Technologies

• Board assembly will be challenged with providingmaterial control and identification standards duringthe transition between lead-free and eutectic materialsand throughout the product life cycle.

• For board assembly of optoelectronics to becompetitive in North America, it is important todevelop low-temperature soldering and automatedfiber handling and assembly.

• Cost improvements are needed to make flexibleautomation viable for all manufacturing.


Table 1: Board Assembly-Conversion CostsTable 1: Board Assembly-Conversion CostsSummarySummary

First Year of Significant Production 2001 ‘03 ’05 ’07 ’10 ’13 2016!

!Parameter

Metric Cost

! !Automotive and Aerospace Products ¢÷

I/O2000 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.5

! !

! ! ! !2002

!2.0 1.8 1.6

!1.6

! !

! !Consumer Products ¢÷

I/O2000 0.6 0.5 0.4 ! 0.22

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.4 .35 0.3 0.2 .15

! !

! !Portable Products ¢÷

I/O2000 0.65 0.5 .45

!0.3

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.5 .45 0.4 0.3 0.3

! !

! !Office Systems Products ¢÷

I/O2000 0.32 0.29 .26

!0.19

! !

! ! ! !2002

!0.28 .25 .23

! ! ! !

! !Business System Products ¢÷

I/O2000 1.0 0.8 .75

! !.65

!

! ! ! !2002

!0.8 .75 0.7 0.65 0.6 0.55

!

!


Identified Needs-Component/SubsystemIdentified Needs-Component/SubsystemTechnologiesTechnologies

• In-circuit test technologies that can be incorporatedinto the build process.

• Industry standards, design guidelines and tools forceramic interconnection substrates.

• Improved optoelectronic subcomponents and materialsthat allow automation.

• Low cost, high volume optical connectors to expandoptical broadband communications to the board andcomponent level.


Paradigm ShiftsParadigm Shifts

• The convergence of broadband communicationsand digital technology has increased productopportunities while creating uncertainty inmarketing.

• System in Package modules (ex. Bluetooth, WiFi(802.11b,a,g) and GSM (global system for mobilecommunication) is speeding the design of newportable and office system products and reducingrisk to the OEM.


Comparison of Popular Wireless DataComparison of Popular Wireless DataCommunications StandardsCommunications Standards

! Bluetooth 802.11b 802.11a

Frequency 2.4GHz 2.4GHz 5GHz

Maximum Data Rate 1Mb/s 11Mb/s 54Mb/s

Maximum Power 100mW 100mW 50mW (5.15-5.25GHz)250mW (5.25-5.35GHz)1W (5.725-5.825GHz)

Modulation GFSK QPSK OFDM (64QAM)

GFSK (Gaussion Phase Shift Keying), QPSK (Quadrature Phase Shift Keying), OFDM (OrthogonalFrequency Division Multiplexing)


Wireless Data Standards ComparisonWireless Data Standards Comparison

Fixed PointWireless LAN

Streaming Video

802.11a

Wireless Consumer DataCommunications Market

10kb/s 100kb/s 1Mb/s 10Mb/s 100Mb/s

802.11b

Bluetooth

COST

KeyboardsMice

Phone Line ModemsRF ID

TelemetryMeter Reading

…..

Computer CableReplacements

Mobile DataFixed Point

Wireless LANStreaming Video


Strategic ConcernsStrategic Concerns

• EMS companies are being asked to provide R&Dleadership while keeping their overhead functions low.This desire requires close collaboration within the SupplyChain.

• Rapid improvement in the productivity of design, test, andmodeling software is becoming critical in Digital Silicon,Packaging, Board Assembly, Modeling and Simulation,and Thermal Management.

• The China market and labor center is so large and uniquethat it must be addressed by OEMs, EMS providers, andtheir suppliers.

• As our industry matures, business needs are as importantas technology needs.


ProductNeeds

TechnologyEvolution

GAPAnalysisResearch

Projects

NEMI Implementation Cycle

NEMI Roadmap Cycle

CompetitiveSolutions

RoadmapProject

Completion

Industry SolutionNeeded

Academia

Government

NEMIUsers & Suppliers

Collaborate

No WorkRequired

Availableto Market

Place

Broad IndustryParticipation


Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)Technology Integration Groups (TIGs)

Co-Directors of Planning: Leslie Guth, Lucent Srinivas Rao, Solectron

• Board Assembly– Chair: Paul Williams, Intel– Co-Chair: Aichyun Shiah, PhD, Solectron

• Substrates– Chair: Hamid Azimi, Intel– Co-Chair: Jack Fisher, IPC

• Environmentally Conscious Electronics– Chair: Rick Charbonneau, StorageTek

• Factory Information Systems– Co-Chairs: John Cartwright, Intel

Barbara Goldstein, NIST

• Optoelectronics– Chair: Alan Rae, PhD, Cookson Electronics

38 Connect with and Strengthen your Supply ChainConnect with and Strengthen your Supply ChainMember Collaboration Efforts

SoftwareSolutions

B2B Collaboration

Materials

ComponentsDesign

Technology

MaterialsTransformation

Substrates TIGProjects:

• High Frequency HDI Materials• Advanced Embedded Passive

Technology (managed by NCMS)• Integral Passives Testing

Board Assembly TIGProjects:

• Test Strategy• Fiber Optic Splice Improvement• DPMO• Optoelectronics Solder Automation• Flip Chip & CSP Underfill

Factory Information Systems TIGProjects:

• Virtual Factory Information Interchange- Product Data Exchange (PDX) Standards

• Data Exchange Convergence Project- Technical Structure- Industry Adoption

Optoelectronics TIGProjects:

• Fiber Handling Processes• Fiber Optic Signal Performance• Optoelectronics for Substrates

Environmentally Conscious Electronics TIGProjects:

• Lead-Free Assembly• Tin Whiskers HAST• Tin Whisker Modeling• Lead-Free Hybrid Assembly & Rework

Business Leadership Team:

• Perfect Bill of Materials (BoM)• Engineering Collaboration

Build toOrder

Equipment


Addressing the Identified Gaps:Addressing the Identified Gaps:2003 Gap Analysis Meetings2003 Gap Analysis Meetings

Alan RaeOMI, Ottawa3:00 - 5:005/1/2003Optoelectronics

Jim McElroyAPEX1:30 - 5:304/2/2002PLIM-Business Initiatives

Hamid AzimiAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Interconnect Substrates

Paul WilliamsAPEX3:15 - 5:153/31/2002Board Assembly

RickCharbonneau

Santa Clara,CA7:30 - 12:003/7/2003Environment (ECE)

LEADERLOCATIONTIMEDATETWG

2003 NEMI Gap Analysis Meetings


Bottom LineBottom Line

• Today’s business metrics are the new reality– Learn to be profitable at these levels

vs.– Continued red ink while waiting for upturn

• Growth of electronics mfg. in China is explosive– Today 7.5% of electronics assembly in PRC

– Projected to be 35% by 2020 (Prismark Partners)

– Americas expected to shrink from 39.7% to 28%

• Component & equipment companies are respondingwith varied approaches– Leadership

– Survival

– “Deer in the headlights”


Bottom LineBottom Line

• Innovative new products continue to drive industry,but “Time to Commodity” is shrinking.

• As rate of technology change slows, ability to wringout cost can improve profitability (e.g., mass storagesegment).

• Design as well as manufacturing is becoming moredistributed, making collaboration and supply chainorchestration more challenging.

• Industry collaboration through groups such as IPCand NEMI is an effective way to deal with the future.

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