Neo-Carbon EnergyDown Under

Australian energy case

Prof. Sirkka HeinonenFinland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku

5th Researchers' Seminar/Neo-Carbon Energy ProjectLUT, Lappeenranta 15th February, 2016

Australia

Mooloolaba

Sydney

Melbourne

Perth

AustraliaDarwin

Brisbane

For WP1:New CaseDifferent from other casesParadoxicalEnergy + Futures StudiesAustralia + China

Facts about Australia• Australia is a federation that consists of six states (New South

Wales, Queensland, South Australia, Tasmania, Victoria andWestern Australia) & 10 territories

• The estimated resident population 24 million people (2016)• Total area of mainland is 7.69 million square km, making Australia

the world’s largest island - but smallest continent• Three levels of government

1) The federal Australian Government2) The governments of the six states and two territories3) Ca. 700 local government authorities

• Monarchy, Queen Elizabeth II• Two major political groups that usually form federal/state

government, the Australian Labor Party, and the Coalition of theLiberal Party and its minor partner the National Party.

• This majority party/coalition becomes the government.• The other major political party or coalition is called ‘the

opposition’. This is decided in an election by citizens

Sources:1) http://www.australia.gov.au/about-government/how-government-works/state-and-territory-government

2) Australian Bureau of Statistics (2016). Retrieved 11.2.2016 from http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/mf/3101.03) http://www.australia.com/en/facts.html

Australian Energy Landscape

Energy White Paper at a glance (2015)

Australian Energy LandscapeSupply and use,

by components – 2013–2014

ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument

• The export market accounts for 83% ofAustralian energy extraction.

• Energy exports in 2013-14 were approximately15,718 PJ, an increase of 2% from 2012-13.

• Australia’s main exports were black coal (10,578PJ or 67%), uranium (3,149 PJ or 20%) andnatural gas (1,267 PJ or 8%).

• The Mining industry was the largest supplier ofenergy in 2012-13, supplying 19,622 PJ of totalenergy worth $75 billion.

• While this was a 1,956 PJ or 11% increase on2011-12 volumes, the value of energy suppliedby the industry fell by 11% or $9 billion.

• Black coal supply increased by 9% or 905 PJ from2011-12 to 2012-13.

• However, the value of black coal supply fell by19% or $9 billion due to falling prices.

• Imports of crude oil and petroleum products(petrol, diesel and other refined fuels) werevalued at $17 billion each.

• Together these two products comprised 96% ofthe value of energy products imported ($35billion) into Australia in 2012-13.

Net Energy Use by Industry

ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocumenthttps://bze.org.au/media/newswire/australia-wind-power-already-cheaper-fossil-fuels-and-solar-right-behind-130211

• Extensive non-renewable energy resources, including oil, coal, gas and uranium• Australia possesses ca 10% of global recoverable black coal resources

Domestic Net Energy Use by Industry

ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument

Australian Energy Landscape/Households• Energy use per Australian household decreased by 1 GJ from

2012-13 to 2013-14 at the same time as the number ofhouseholds increased by approximately 165,000.

• Since 2002-03, energy use per capita has decreased by 5% andper household by 7%

• The total energy use by Australian households has increased by13% from 2002-03 to 2013-14, while the number of Australianhouseholds increased by 21% and the population grew 19%.

• Household renewable energy extraction has increased by 38%from 2002-03 to 2013-14 including an increase of 5% from2012-13 to 2013-14.

ABS 2016 http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.nsf/ProductsbyReleaseDate/5E025753112D1A80CA2578800019C952?OpenDocument

2015: Renewable Energy Target (RET)• More than 23.5 % of Australia’s electricity being derived from

renewable sources by 2020.• The 33,000 gigawatt hour Renewable Energy Target will not be

reviewed until 2020. This will give the renewable energyindustry the certainty it needs to grow.

• The Clean Energy Regulator will provide an annual statement toParliament on how the scheme is tracking towards the 2020target, and any impact the RET is having on electricity prices.

https://www.environment.gov.au/minister/hunt/2015/pubs/mr20150623.pdf

2015 Energy White PaperAn integrated Australian energy policyframework by the Australian Government

2015 Energy White Paper, p. 2.

The Paradox• Australian solar industry […] pioneers the best

technology in the world• i.e. UNSW School of Photovoltaic and

Renewable Energy Engineering• The highest rates of solar penetration and

lowest costs in the world at a residential level• Renewable energy becoming cheaper than

new-build coal• RE an enormous export opportunity• Yet: Coal-fired power industry supported with

subsidies, fossil fuel research supported

”Australia is not an innovation nation, it’s an inertia nation”- Danny Kennedy 2015

Sources: 1) Kennedy (2015)2) http://about.bnef.com/press-releases/renewable-energy-now-cheaper-than-new-fossil-fuels-in-australia/Photo: CSIRO [CC BY 3.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0)], lähde: Wikimedia Commons

Australian Energy Landscape

Energy White Paper at a glance (2015)

National Energy Productivity Plan2015–2030 (NEPP)

Source: National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030

Examples of NEPP measures

Source: National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030

State of New South Wales• New South Wales has the largest

renewable energy and sustainabilitysectors in Australia

• Backed by major government andprivate sector initiatives.

• Abundant and world-class renewableenergy resources

• Well positioned to attract futureinvestment

• Research and development facilitiespaving the way for performanceimprovements across all majorrenewable energy sources

http://www.industry.nsw.gov.au/business-and-industry-in-nsw/key-industry-sectors/renewable

National Solar Schools Program(–2013)

Over $217 million was provided to 5,310 schools(or almost 60 per cent of all Australian schools)to install renewable energy systems, rainwatertanks and a range energy efficiency measures.

• The solar power systems installed produceenough electricity to power the equivalent of4600 average households every day.

• The funding helped to educate students aboutrenewable energy and energy efficiency, andthat everyday actions can prevent theproduction of millions of tonnes of carbonpollution.

http://www.industry.gov.au/Energy/Programmes/SolarSchoolsProgram/Pages/default.aspx

The Solar Towns Programme• Part of the Australian Government’s commitment

to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

• Funding of $2.1 million (GST exclusive) is providedfor the programme to support communityorganisations who wish to install a renewableenergy system (solar photovoltaic panels or a solarhot water system only) on an existing building thatprovides support to the local community.

• The Australian Government has made acommitment to install renewable energy systems inpreselected community sites and regions.

https://www.environment.gov.au/climate-change/renewable-energy/solar-towns

© Sirkka Heinonen

RADICALSTARTUPS

VALUE-DRIVEN TECHEMOTHS

GREEN DIY ENGINEERS

NEW CONSCIOUSNESS

FOUR SCENARIOS +ENERGY IMPLICATIONS

Heinonen, Sirkka – Karjalainen, Joni & Ruotsalainen, Juho(2015), Towards the third industrial revolution. NEO-CARBON ENERGY project Future Clinique I ”Creating theThird Industrial Revolution” 6.5.2015 FFRC eBook 6/2015.Finland Futures Research Centre, University of Turku. 74 p.ISBN 978-952-249-394-1, ISSN 1797-1322.https://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf

AUSTRALIA VIA HONG KONGThird Industrial Revolution through Energy Transition Case: Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios 2050

Hong Kong meetings with foresight analysts and Finnish Consulate:Justine Tang, Les Hales, Alan Lung, Consul General, Innovation Consul.Technology Innovation Centre estbl.

MELBOURNE

Melbourne Futures HUB Roundtable 19.11.2015with foresight and energy experts + urban solutionsSwinburne University of Technology/Peter Hayward/Richard Slaughter

Charles Brass AHRI Convention 2014 Future of Australians at work 2020https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SeDD-f3Lcgk

Automotive manufacturing ends in Australia

MELBOURNECSIROurban solutionsAustralia’s growth and way of life isunderpinned by access to affordableand sustainable energy sources.CSIRO leading the way in thedevelopment of low cost,environmentally friendly productionmethods and flexible materials thatcould change how and wherephotovoltaic energy can be generatedWave energy.

In the lead-up to December’s Paris climate change conference, the Australian Governmentcommitted to the target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent below 2005Melbourne Energy Institute: ENERGY FUTURES SEMINAR 16th Febr 2016: Climate policyin 2016: The hard task of delivering on our international commitment

MOOLOOLABAUNIVERSITY OF SUNSHINE COAST

Visiting Lecture + expert discussion at Univ. Sunshine Coast, Australia.Faculty of Art and Business. Futures Program Co-ordinated by Dr. Marcus Bussey(Graduate Certificate in Futures Studies)Sustainable Development

Mobile portable & foldable PV-> Mobile café van

MOOLOOLABAPermaculture Village CRYSTAL WATERS

Prof. Sohail InayatullahDebveloper of CLA methodSee CLA Game Report:Heinonen, Sirkka, Balcom Raleigh, Nicolas, Karjalainen,Joni, Minkkinen, Matti, Parkkinen, Marjukka &Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). CLA GAME REPORT: CausalLayered Analysis Game on Neo-Carbon EnergyScenarios. FFRC eBOOK 12/2015. Finland FuturesResearch Centre, University of Turku. 112 p. ISBN 978-952-249-403-0, ISSN 1797-1322.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_12-2015.pdf

BRISBANE

Solar-poweredChristmas tree

QUT Queensland University of Technology + urban solutions

BRISBANE

Urban VisionsMeeting with Sandvik repr.

SYDNEYVulnerable to Flooding

SYDNEY

Meets with Club of Rome members+ Gov repr. +urban solutions + Coal Moratorium

Feedback for Scenarios

Kiribati, an island republic in the CentralPacific, comprises 33 coral atollsstretching along the equator. Withlagoons and white-sand beaches, manyof its islands are uninhabited, offering aremote setting for fishing, diving andbird-watching

COAL MORATORIUMNo New Coal MinesPublished inNew ScientistAnd Guardian

©VirpiVaattovaara

Thank You!sirkka.heinonen (at) utu.fi

NEXT in Phase II

Working paper on Australian resultsFeedback from the intervieweesCriteria for evaluating the potential of neo-carbon scenarios for case countriesElectricity markets reflections per case

REFERENCES

2015 Energy White Paper (2015). Australian Government: Department of Industry andScience. Retrieved 12 February 2016 fromhttp://ewp.industry.gov.au/sites/prod.ewp/files/EnergyWhitePaper.pdf

2015 Energy White Paper at a glance (2015). Australian Government: Department ofIndustry and Science. Retrieved 12 February 2016 fromhttp://ewp.industry.gov.au/sites/prod.ewp/files/EnergyWhitePaper-AtAGlance.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka, Karjalainen, Joni and Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). Towards the ThirdIndustrial Revolution. Neo-Carbon Energy Futures Clinique I. eBook 6/2015. FinlandFutures Research Centre, 74 p. http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/FFRC-eBook-6-2015.pdf

Heinonen, Sirkka (2014). What is Futures Reseach and Scenario Thinking? Lecture atUniversity of Buenos Aires (UBA), Departamento de Computación 18th November 2014.During the Secondment at FLACSO and CIECTI, Buenos Aires (November 2014). 50ppt slides. www.youtube.com/watch?v=cY4NGAfdhJU

Heinonen, Sirkka, Balcom Raleigh, Nicolas, Karjalainen, Joni, Minkkinen, Matti,Parkkinen, Marjukka & Ruotsalainen, Juho (2015). CLA Game Report : CausalLayered Analysis on Neo-Carbon Energy Scenarios. FFRC eBook 12/2015.Turku: Finland Futures Research Centre.http://www.utu.fi/fi/yksikot/ffrc/julkaisut/e-tutu/Documents/eBook_12-2015.pdf

Kiinteistöposti (2016). Suomi 100-prosenttisesti uusiutuvan energian maaksi?Kiinteistöposti 1/2016. 18–24.

Kennedy, Danny (2015). Solar Energy: Australia is not an innovation nation, it‘s aninertia nation. Guardian 17 December 2015. Accessed 11 February 2016 fromhttp://www.theguardian.com/sustainable-business/2015/dec/18/solar-energy-australia-is-not-an-innovation-nation-its-an-inertia-nation

National Energy Productivity Plan 2015–2030 (2015). Australian Government.Retrieved 11 February 2016 fromhttps://scer.govspace.gov.au/files/2015/12/National-Energy-Productivity-Plan-release-version-FINAL.pdf

Reunanen, Liisa (2015). Huomisen energia on puhdasta – ja se on jo täällä.Aurora 3/2015. 10–17.