nepool participants committee meeting boston, ma january 9, 2004
DESCRIPTION
NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting Boston, MA January 9, 2004. Stephen G. Whitley Senior Vice President & COO. Agenda. System Operations Market Operations Winter Outlook Summer 2004 Outlook Back-Up Detail. System Operations. Operations Highlights. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
NEPOOL Participants Committee Meeting
Boston, MA
January 9, 2004
Stephen G. WhitleySenior Vice President & COO
2
• System Operations• Market Operations• Winter Outlook• Summer 2004 Outlook• Back-Up Detail
Agenda
3
System Operations
4
Operations Highlights
• Boston & Hartford Weather Pattern: – The first half of December was very cold and snowy; the rest of the
month was above normal without snow.• Peak load of 20,698 MW at 18:00 hours on December 15.• During December:
– OP #4 declared on December 5 – system wide. Loss of multiple units within a 1-hour timeframe of the peak hour.
– M/S2 declared on December 2 (computer virus), December 5 (capacity deficiency), December 24 (System wide – ICCP link failure).
– Minimum Generation declared on December 10, 23, 24 and 25.– NPCC Shared Activation of Reserves Events on December 4,
December 5 (2) and December 7.
5
Market Operations
6
Day–Ahead & Real-Time Prices, ISO Hub:
7
Day-Ahead–LMP Average by Zone & Hub:
Marginal Losses LMP CongestionData Period: December 1 – 26, 2003
(-5.73)
(3.47)(-1.60)
(3.43) (-2.06) (-2.63)(0.02) (-1.15)
Marginal Losses LMP CongestionMarginal LossesMarginal Losses LMPLMP CongestionCongestionData Period: December 1 – 26, 2003
(-5.73)
(3.47)(-1.60)
(3.43) (-2.06) (-2.63)(0.02) (-1.15)
8
97.4%
Real-Time-LMP Average by Zone & Hub:
Marginal Losses LMP Congestion
$MW/h
Data Period: December 1 – 26, 2003
(-6.18)
(0.97) (4.27) (-2.14)(-2.59)
(0.09) (-0.93)(-1.91)
Marginal Losses LMP CongestionMarginal LossesMarginal Losses LMPLMP CongestionCongestion
$MW/h
Data Period: December 1 – 26, 2003
(-6.18)
(0.97) (4.27) (-2.14)(-2.59)
(0.09) (-0.93)(-1.91)
9
Day Ahead Market vs. Forecast Load
Note: All data represents entire month.
Day Ahead Market Demand Cleared vs. Forecast Load (%)
10397 96
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
October November December
Day Ahead Market Generation Cleared vs. Forecast Load (%)
919399
0
20
40
60
80
100
October November December
10
Day Ahead LMPDecember, 2003 DAM LMP
0.00
25.00
50.00
75.00
100.00
12/0
1/20
03 0
1
12/0
2/20
03 0
1
12/0
3/20
03 0
1
12/0
4/20
03 0
1
12/0
5/20
03 0
1
12/0
6/20
03 0
1
12/0
7/20
03 0
1
12/0
8/20
03 0
1
12/0
9/20
03 0
1
12/1
0/20
03 0
1
12/11
/2003
01
12/1
2/20
03 0
1
12/1
3/20
03 0
1
12/1
4/20
03 0
1
12/1
5/20
03 0
1
12/1
6/20
03 0
1
12/1
7/20
03 0
1
12/1
8/20
03 0
1
12/1
9/20
03 0
1
12/2
0/20
03 0
1
12/2
1/20
03 0
1
12/2
2/20
03 0
1
12/2
3/20
03 0
1
12/2
4/20
03 0
1
12/2
5/20
03 0
1
12/2
6/20
03 0
1
12/2
7/20
03 0
1
12/2
8/20
03 0
1
12/2
9/20
03 0
1
12/3
0/20
03 0
1
12/3
1/20
03 0
1
Day
$/M
Wh
INTERNAL_HUB CONNECTICUT MAINE NEMASSBOST NEWHAMPSHIRE
RHODEISLAND SEMASS VERMONT WCMASS
Congestion on K21 line due to external transactions and virtual bidding.
ZB06 contingency causing congestion on 340 line.
Congestion on ESSEX_Z10_X10_XF.
NS_ST Interface due to Generation pattern.
NWVT_1 Interface Constr.
11
Real Time LMPDecember, 2003 Real-Time LMP
0.00
25.00
50.00
75.00
100.00
125.00
150.00
175.00
200.00
225.00
250.00
275.00
300.00
12/01/2
003 01
12/02/2
003 01
12/03/2
003 01
12/04/2
003 01
12/05/2
003 01
12/06/2
003 01
12/07/2
003 01
12/08/2
003 01
12/09/2
003 01
12/10/2
003 01
12/11/2
003 01
12/12/2
003 01
12/13/2
003 01
12/14/2
003 01
12/15/2
003 01
12/16/2
003 01
12/17/2
003 01
12/18/2
003 01
12/19/2
003 01
12/20/2
003 01
12/21/2
003 01
12/22/2
003 01
12/23/2
003 01
12/24/2
003 01
12/25/2
003 01
12/26/2
003 01
12/27/2
003 01
12/28/2
003 01
12/29/2
003 01
12/30/2
003 01
12/31/2
003 01
Day
$/M
Wh
INTERNAL_HUB CONNECTICUT MAINE NEMASSBOST NEWHAMPSHIRE
RHODEISLAND SEMASS VERMONT WCMASS
Leading up to evening peak, OP4 conditions resulted in $1,000 prices due to the loss (for unrelated reasons) of 2 large generators.
Loss of 338 on to F158 line.
SWCT Interface due to tight capacity conditions over peak.
Minimum Generation Emergency
NS_ST Interface due to Generation pattern. Minimum Generation
Emergency
Unit OOS and generator tripped during peak load period.
12
Settlement Data – Real Time & Balancing Market
Percentage of Real-Time Load Fully Hedged Through ISO-NE Settlement System*
75%
71%
73%
67%
70% 70%
74%
70%
66%
72% 73%
75%
73%
71%
73%
72%
75%
71%73%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Jun-
01 -
May
-02
Avera
ge
Jun-
02
Jul-0
2
Aug-0
2
Sep-0
2
Oct-02
Nov-0
2
Dec-0
2
Jan-
03
Feb-0
3
Mar
-03
Apr-0
3
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug-0
3
Sep-0
3
Oct-03
Nov-0
3
Month
% R
T L
oad F
ully
Hed
ged
75%
71%
73%
67%
70% 70%
74%
70%
66%
72% 73%
75%
73%
71%
73%
72%
75%
71%73%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
Jun-
01 -
May
-02
Avera
ge
Jun-
02
Jul-0
2
Aug-0
2
Sep-0
2
Oct-02
Nov-0
2
Dec-0
2
Jan-
03
Feb-0
3
Mar
-03
Apr-0
3
May
-03
Jun-
03
Jul-0
3
Aug-0
3
Sep-0
3
Oct-03
Nov-0
3
Month
% R
T L
oad F
ully
Hed
ged
13
Winter Outlook
14
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentConditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity
MarginWeek beginning January 17th
MW
Projected Peak (50/50) 22,010 Operating Reserve Required 1,700Total Operable Cap. Required 23,710Projected Capacity 30,670 Assumed Outages 3,400Total Capacity 27,270Operable Capacity Margin 3,560
15
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentConditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity
MarginWeek beginning January 17th
MW
Projected Peak (90/10) 22,896 Operating Reserve Required 1,700Total Operable Cap. Required 24,596Projected Capacity 30,670 Assumed Outages 3,400Total Capacity 27,270Operable Capacity Margin 2,674
16
Summer Outlook
17
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentConditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity
MarginWeek beginning June 5th
MW
Projected Peak (50/50) 25,690 Operating Reserve Required 1,700Total Operable Cap. Required 27,390Projected Capacity 31,680 Assumed Outages 4,500Total Capacity 27,180Operable Capacity Margin
(210)
18
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentConditions for Week of Lowest Operable Capacity
MarginWeek beginning June 5th
MW
Projected Peak (90/10) 27,263 Operating Reserve Required 1,700Total Operable Cap. Required 28,963Projected Capacity 31,680 Assumed Outages 4,500Total Capacity 27,180Operable Capacity Margin
(1,783)
19
Back-Up Detail
20
New Generation Update
• No new resources were added in December.
• Status of Generation Projects as of January 1, 2004:
No. MW
In Construction 2 521with 18.4 approval
Not in Construction 6 1,444with 18.4 Approval
21
Demand Response(as of December 31, 2003)
Active: Pending:Zone Assets Total Assets Total
CT 120 147.7 1 0.4ME 4 76.4NEMA 116 68.8 1 0.2NH 2 0.6RI 14 2.1SEMA 77 8.4VT 15 13.1WCMA 91 18.3 2 7.3
Total 439 335.3 4 7.9
22
Demand Response(as of December 31, 2003)
Active: 439 Assets 335.3 MW Pending: 4 Assets 7.9 MWZone Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled * Assets RT Price RT 30-Min RT 2-Hour Profiled *
CT 120 27.0 61.8 1.1 57.8 1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
SWCT** 55 7.7 26.6 1.1 0.2 1 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.0
ME 4 0.4 0.0 0.0 76.0
NEMA 116 62.9 3.1 1.4 1.4 1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
NH 2 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.0
RI 14 2.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
SEMA 77 7.9 0.5 0.0 0.0
VT 15 7.1 0.1 0.0 5.9
WCMA 91 9.3 4.8 2.3 1.9 2 7.3
Total 439 116.8 70.8 4.9 142.9 4 0.0 0.6 7.3 0.0
* Includes former Type 2 - Interruptible Loads** SWCT assets are included in CT values and are not included in Total (SNEW 7 was in 2-Hour, now retired)
23
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentWeek Beginning, Saturday
Year Month Day
Installed Seasonal Claimed
Capability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (NYPP, NB,
HQ, Highgate,
Block Load)
Note
New Generation
[Note 2]
De-listed ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capacity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operating Reserve
Requirement [Note 6]
Total Known Maintenance
Allowance for
Unplanned Outages [Note 8]
Total Capacity
Operable Capacity
Margin (+/-)
Extent of Potentially Necessary OP 4
Actions (OP 4 Actions up to and including)
[Note 9](MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
2004 January 3 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 21,550 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 4,320 10 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,010 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 3,860 17 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,010 1,700 600 2,800 27,270 3,560 24 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,010 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 3,860 31 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 21,790 1,700 500 3,100 29,710 6,220
2004 February 7 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 21,526 1,700 1,400 3,100 28,810 5,580 14 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 21,497 1,700 1,300 3,100 28,910 5,710 21 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 21,237 1,700 1,000 3,100 29,210 6,270 28 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 20,260 1,700 1,400 2,200 29,710 7,750
2004 March 6 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 19,915 1,700 1,400 2,200 29,710 8,100 13 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 19,721 1,700 1,100 2,200 30,010 8,590 20 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 19,360 1,700 2,600 2,200 28,510 7,450 27 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 18,801 1,700 3,500 2,200 27,610 7,110
This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July and August.
ISO-NE WINTER 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJanuary 5, 2004 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 50/50 FORECAST
Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year.1. Installed Capability per January 1, 2004 SCC Report. The Installed Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the NEPOOL system.2. New Generation information includes 1) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the NEPOOL SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column, and
2) future generation as assumed by ISO-NE Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-listed ICAP quantities are only known with certainty in the current month.4. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (De-listed ICAP Resources). In this equation, the SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP values are rounded to
the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Exposure per the April 2003 CELT Report. 6. Operating Reserve Requirement based on the first contingency (Generator at 1160 MW) plus 1/2 the second contingency (Generator at 1145 MW).7. Highgate maintenance scheduled.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes: forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies, depending on system conditions.
24
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentNEPOOL Winter 2004 Operating Capacity Margins WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL TRANSACTIONS - 90/10 FORECAST
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
3-J
an
10
-Ja
n
17
-Ja
n
24
-Ja
n
31
-Ja
n
7-F
eb
14
-Fe
b
21
-Fe
b
28
-Fe
b
6-M
ar
13
-Ma
r
20
-Ma
r
27
-Ma
r
January - March 2004, W/B Saturday
Op
era
ting
Ca
pa
city
Ma
rgin
(M
W)
25
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentNEPOOL Winter 2004 Operating Capacity Margins WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL TRANSACTIONS - 50/50 FORECAST
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
3-J
an
10-
Jan
17-
Jan
24-
Jan
31-
Jan
7-F
eb
14-
Fe
b
21-
Fe
b
28-
Fe
b
6-M
ar
13-
Mar
20-
Mar
27-
Mar
January - March 2004, W/B Saturday
Ope
ratin
g C
apa
city
Mar
gin
(MW
)
26
Winter 2004 Capacity
AssessmentWeek Beginning, Saturday
Year Month Day
Installed Seasonal Claimed
Capability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (NYPP, NB, HQ, Highgate, Block Load)
Note
New Generation
[Note 2]
De-listed ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capacity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operating Reserve
Requirement [Note 6]
Total Known Maintenance
Allowance for
Unplanned Outages [Note 8] Total Capacity
Operable Capacity Margin
(+/-)
Extent of Potentially Necessary OP 4 Actions (OP 4 Actions up to and including)
[Note 9]
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
2004 January 3 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,417 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 3,450
10 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,896 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 2,970
17 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,896 1,700 600 2,800 27,270 2,670
24 32,795 320 0 2,440 30,670 22,896 1,700 300 2,800 27,570 2,970
31 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 22,667 1,700 500 3,100 29,710 5,340
2004 February 7 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 22,392 1,700 1,400 3,100 28,810 4,720
14 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 22,362 1,700 1,300 3,100 28,910 4,850
21 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 22,092 1,700 1,000 3,100 29,210 5,420
28 32,796 510 0 - 33,310 21,076 1,700 1,400 2,200 29,710 6,930
2004 March 6 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 20,716 1,700 1,400 2,200 29,710 7,290
13 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 20,515 1,700 1,100 2,200 30,010 7,800
20 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 20,139 1,700 2,600 2,200 28,510 6,670
27 32,802 510 0 - 33,310 19,558 1,700 3,500 2,200 27,610 6,350 Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year.
1. Installed Capability per January 1, 2004 SCC Report. The Installed Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the NEPOOL system.2. New Generation information includes 1) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the NEPOOL SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column,
and 2) future generation as assumed by ISO-NE Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-listed ICAP quantities are only known with certainty in the current month.4. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (De-listed ICAP Resources). In this equation, the SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP values are rounded
to the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Exposure per the April 2003 CELT Report. 6. Operating Reserve Requirement based on the first contingency (Generator at 1160 MW) plus 1/2 the second contingency (Generator at 1145 MW).7. Highgate maintenance scheduled.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes: forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies, depending on system conditions.
This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July and August.
ISO-NE WINTER 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJanuary 5, 2004 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 90/10 FORECAST
27
Summer 2004 Capacity
Assessment
Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year.1. Installed Capability per January 1, 2004 SCC Report. The Installed Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the NEPOOL system.2. New Generation information includes 1) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the NEPOOL SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column, and
2) future generation as assumed by ISO-NE Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-listed ICAP quantities are only known with certainty in the current month.4. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (De-listed ICAP Resources). In this equation, the SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP values are rounded to
the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Exposure per the April 2003 CELT Report. 6. Operating Reserve Requirement based on the first contingency (Generator at 1160 MW) plus 1/2 the second contingency (Generator at 1145 MW).7. Highgate maintenance scheduled.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes: forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies, depending on system conditions.
Week Beginning, Saturday
Year Month Day
Installed Seasonal Claimed
Capability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (NYPP, NB,
HQ, Highgate,
Block Load)
No
te
New Generation
[Note 2]
De-listed ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capacity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operating Reserve
Requirement [Note 6]
Total Known Maintenance
Allowance for
Unplanned Outages [Note 8]
Total Capacity
Operable Capacity
Margin (+/-)
Extent of Potentially Necessary OP 4 Actions (OP 4 Actions up to and
including) [Note 9]
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)2004 June 5 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 25,690 1,700 1,700 2,800 27,180 (210) Action 6
12 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 25,690 1,700 600 2,800 28,280 890 19 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 25,690 1,700 500 2,800 28,380 990 26 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 25,690 1,700 500 2,800 28,380 990
2004 July 3 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 200 2,100 29,340 1,950 10 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 200 2,100 29,340 1,950 17 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050 24 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050 31 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050
2004 August 7 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050
14 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050
21 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 2,050
28 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,690 1,700 300 2,100 29,240 1,850
2004 September 4 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 23,625 1,700 900 2,100 28,640 3,320
11 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 22,348 1,700 500 2,100 29,040 4,990
18 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 22,009 1,700 1,200 2,100 28,340 4,630
25 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 21,924 1,700 800 2,100 28,740 5,120
This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July and August.
ISO-NE SUMMER 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJanuary 5, 2004 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 50/50 FORECAST
28
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentWeek Beginning, Saturday
Year Month Day
Installed Seasonal Claimed
Capability (SCC)
[Note 1]
Interchange (NYPP, NB, HQ, Highgate, Block Load)
Note
New Generation
[Note 2]
De-listed ICAP
Resources [Note 3]
Net Capacity [Note 4]
Peak Load Exposure [Note 5]
Operating Reserve
Requirement [Note 6]
Total Known Maintenance
Allowance for
Unplanned Outages [Note 8] Total Capacity
Operable Capacity Margin
(+/-)
Extent of Potentially Necessary OP 4 Actions (OP 4 Actions up to and including)
[Note 9]
(MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW) (MW)
2004 June 5 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 27,263 1,700 1,700 2,800 27,180 (1,780) Actions 11 - 12
12 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 27,263 1,700 600 2,800 28,280 (680) Actions 6 - 9
19 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 27,263 1,700 500 2,800 28,380 (580) Actions 6 - 7
26 30,292 890 500 - 31,680 27,263 1,700 500 2,800 28,380 (580) Actions 6 - 7
2004 July 3 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 200 2,100 29,340 380
10 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 200 2,100 29,340 380
17 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
24 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
31 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
2004 August 7 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
14 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
21 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 100 2,100 29,440 480
28 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 27,263 1,700 300 2,100 29,240 280
2004 September 4 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 25,071 1,700 900 2,100 28,640 1,870
11 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 23,716 1,700 500 2,100 29,040 3,620
18 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 23,356 1,700 1,200 2,100 28,340 3,280
25 30,254 890 500 - 31,640 23,266 1,700 800 2,100 28,740 3,770 Notes: Please note that the information contained within the Capacity Analysis is a deterministic projection of system conditions which could materialize during any given week of the year.
1. Installed Capability per January 1, 2004 SCC Report. The Installed Capability does not reflect possible transmission constraints within the NEPOOL system.2. New Generation information includes 1) generation recently commercial but not yet reflected in the NEPOOL SCC Report totals used in the Installed Capability Column,
and 2) future generation as assumed by ISO-NE Planning Department. This value is rounded to the nearest hundred.3. De-listed ICAP quantities are only known with certainty in the current month.4. Net Capacity = (SCC) + (Interchange) + (New Generation) - (De-listed ICAP Resources). In this equation, the SCC, Interchange and De-listed ICAP values are rounded
to the nearest ten and New Generation is rounded to the nearest hundred.5. Peak Load Exposure per the April 2003 CELT Report. 6. Operating Reserve Requirement based on the first contingency (Generator at 1160 MW) plus 1/2 the second contingency (Generator at 1145 MW).7. Highgate maintenance scheduled.8. Allowance for Unplanned Outages includes: forced outages and maintenance outages scheduled less than 14 days in advance.9. Relief from certain OP 4 Actions varies, depending on system conditions.
This analysis is a tabulation of weekly assessments shown in one single table. The information shows the operable capacity situation under assumed conditions for each week. It is not expected that the system peak will occur every week during June, July and August.
ISO-NE SUMMER 2004 OPERABLE CAPACITY ANALYSISJanuary 5, 2004 - WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL CONTRACTS - 90/10 FORECAST
29
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentNEPOOL Summer 2004 Operating Capacity Margins WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL TRANSACTIONS - 90/10 FORECAST
(3,000)
(2,000)
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,0005
-Ju
n
12
-Ju
n
19
-Ju
n
26
-Ju
n
3-J
ul
10
-Ju
l
17
-Ju
l
24
-Ju
l
31
-Ju
l
7-A
ug
14
-Au
g
21
-Au
g
28
-Au
g
4-S
ep
11
-Se
p
18
-Se
p
25
-Se
p
June - September 2004, W/B Saturday
Ope
ratin
g C
apac
ity M
argi
n (M
W)
OP- 4 Actions 11 - 12
OP- 4 Actions 6 - 7
30
Summer 2004 Capacity
AssessmentNEPOOL Summer 2004 Operating Capacity Margins WITH KNOWN EXTERNAL TRANSACTIONS - 50/50 FORECAST
(1,000)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
5-J
un
12
-Ju
n
19
-Ju
n
26
-Ju
n
3-J
ul
10
-Ju
l
17
-Ju
l
24
-Ju
l
31
-Ju
l
7-A
ug
14
-Au
g
21
-Au
g
28
-Au
g
4-S
ep
11
-Se
p
18
-Se
p
25
-Se
p
June - September 2004, W/B Saturday
Ope
ratin
g C
ap
aci
ty M
arg
in (
MW
)
OP- 4 Action 6
31
RTEP Update• The next TEAC Meeting (TEAC19) will be held on Friday, January 16, at the Radisson
Hotel in Marlborough, MA beginning at 9:30 A.M. to address the following topics:– RTEP03 Update– Transmission Project Listing Process Update
• To be updated March 2004• Draft to be available for TEAC review by mid-February
– Interregional Planning Process Update• Draft planning protocol nearing completion• Stakeholder comments will then be sought
– Presentations on RTEP04 Planning Assumptions– Fuel Diversity Working Group Report– Boston Area Transmission Planning Studies Review
• Reports to be posted and technical sessions to be scheduled to discuss:– SWCT– Monadnock– ME-NE– SEMA-RI– Boston/North Shore Areas– Other items of interest to TEAC
32
RTEP Projects Update - NEMA
Status as of 1/06/2004
UpgradeExpected In-
serviceOriginal In-
servicePresent Stage
NEMA Boston Stages
1 Planning and Prep148-522XY Jun-01 Jun-01 4 2 Pre-construction (ordering, scheduling, etc.)282-507 Mar-03 Jun-01 4 3 Construction240-510 Nov-01 Nov-01 4 4 CompletedMystic 106 Breaker Jun-01 Jun-01 4
NEMA UpgradesFramingham Auto Jun-02 Jun-02 4Merrimack Auto Jun-04 Jun-02 2240-601 Jun-02 Jun-02 4Walpole Auto Jun-02 Dec-02 4 3800 3400Waltham Auto Nov-02 Jun-03 4282-602 Jul-03 Jun-03 4433-507 Jul-03 Jun-03 4Waltham PAR Jun-03 Dec-03 4274-509 Jun-02 Dec-03 4342-507 Jun-03 Dec-03 4
Notes:No significant activity since 7/1 update.
3500
36004000
NEMA UPGRADE STATUS SHEET
3500
3700
3900
Import (MW)
3100
3300
33
RTEP Projects Update - SEMA
Status as of 1/06/2004
UpgradeExpected In-
serviceOriginal In-
servicePresent Stage
Transfer Limits Stages
1 Planning and Prep2 Pre-construction (ordering, scheduling, etc.)
Existing 3 Construction4 Completed
West Medway 111 Mar-02 Mar-02 4West Medway 112 Mar-02 Mar-02 4Millbury 314 Oct-02 Jun-02 4Sherman Road 142 Sep-02 Jul-02 4W. Walpole 104 Jun-03 Dec-03 4W. Walpole 105 Jun-03 Dec-03 4W. Walpole 108 Jun-03 Dec-03 4W. Walpole 109 Jun-03 Dec-03 4
Notes:Project was totally complete as of 6-17-03 update.
SEMA UPGRADE STATUS SHEET
E/W 850 SEMA/RI 2400
SEMA 400
E/W 2400 SEMA/RI 3000
SEMA 2300 (CT Import @
2200)
34
RTEP Projects Update - SWCT
Status as of 1/06/2004
UpgradeExpected In-
serviceOriginal In-
servicePresent Stage
SWCT Import (MW)
Stages
1 Planning and PrepExisting 1700 2 Pre-construction (ordering, scheduling, etc.)Long Mountain Brkrs May-01 May-01 4 3 ConstructionRocky River Caps Jun-02 May-02 4 4 CompletedStony Hill Caps Jun-02 May-02 41880 Upgrade Aug-02 May-02 41890 Upgrade Jun-02 May-02 4BtsRk/StyHl DVARs Jun-03 Jun-03 4 2000Glenbrook StatCom Apr-04 May-04 31977 Line Tap-Glnbrk May-04 May-04 3Phase I - 345kV Nov-05 Dec-04 2 2600Phase II - 345kV Dec-07 Jan-06 1 3400
Notes:STATCOM component undergoing pre-commission testing; associated yard work progressing toward 4/1/2004 completion.1977 Line Tap work continuing; breaker and siting approvals in place; cable work scheduled for May completion.Phase II now December as opposed to June 2007.
SWCT UPGRADE STATUS SHEET
1850
?
35
SWCT Emergency Capability RFP
• Issued 12/1/03 for up to 300 MW for 2004 to 2008
• Five years covers reasonable worst cases of generation and transmission project delays
• Soliciting – New quick-start peaking capacity– Incremental quick-start at existing units – Demand response resources– Emergency generation and– C&LM that reduces on-peak load
• Bids due 1/21/04• Winning proposals announced on 2/16/04