TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

1. Market Summary (as of Mar 26 , 2015)

NEPSE at close last week (Mar 19, 2015) 942.40

NEPSE high last week (Mar 22, 3015) 964.12

Weekly Change -25.22 (or -2.63%)

Daily Volume (Avg.) NPR 21.09 crores

Total Traded Amount (weekly) NPR 105.45 crores

Immediate Resistance 972.17

Immediate Support 938.41

RSI 31.06

MACD Line -5.47

Signal Line -1.45

2. Market Trend

Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

3. RSI

RSI is a form of leading indicator that is believed to be most effective during periods of sideways

movement. Such indicators may create numerous buy and sell signals that are useful when the market

is not clearly trending upwards or downwards.

Still maintaining within the neutral zone, the RSI descended last week as well. RSI, at the beginning of

the week, was 43.78 levels. By the end of the week, the level stands at 31.06. If it falls further below

the 30 mark, it would trigger a buy signal at the market.

RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

4. MACD

The MACD is a momentum oscillator formed by using two different types of moving averages, which

provides specific buying or selling signals. When a MACD line crosses above the signal line, it is

considered to be a positive sign and indicates a time to buy, and vice-versa.

The MACD line was below the Signal line throughout last week as well, and it continued the

downward momentum by the end of the week. MACD at the end of last week stands at the negative

zone reaching -5.47. The Signal Line also reached the negative territory reaching -1.45.

MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

5. Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Band is a technical indicator that consists of a moving average (21-day) along with two

trading bands above (upper band) and below it (lower band). The bands are an indication of volatility,

which are represented by calculating standard deviation.

The NEPSE index went down throughout last week, touching the lower-band. The upper and the lower

bands still continue to converge. However, by the end of last week, it appears to be at an initial stage

of divergence, which will indicate an increase in volatility in the market.

Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

Overview:

NEPSE ended on a negative note last week as it closed lower by -8.89 points (or -0.93%) to end at

942.40 points. Nepse decreased throughout the week, falling significantly at the last day of trading;

closing lower than the week’s average of 953.65. The average daily market volume increased last

week to NPR 21.09 crores from NPR 17.05 crores the week prior. The 50-day moving average is still

increasing at a higher rate above the 200-day moving average suggesting that the overall view of the

market remains positive. The RSI decreased throughout the week. It stands at 31.06 levels, and still

maintains within the neutral zone. The MACD line is moving close with the signal line and is still at

the negative territory, indicating a sell signal. However, if it moves above the signal line, it would

trigger a buy sign. The Bollinger Bands show a buy signal as Nepse touches the lower-band. Nepse’s

support and resistance level stands the same at 938.41 and 972.17 points respectively.

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Nepse (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

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RSI (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

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MACD (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

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Bollinger Bands (Jan 01, 2014 – Mar 26, 2015)

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