nerc projectsite.ieee.org/pes-rrpasc/files/2016/08/noha-abdel-karim...for nerc’s long-term...

NERC Project Increase Analytical Capabilities in the

Probabilistic Domain

Noha Abdel-Karim, PhD.

Senior Engineer for Reliability Assessment

IEEE-LOLE Working Group Meeting

July 21-22, 2016

RELIABILITY | ACCOUNTABILITY 2

About NERC

International regulatory authority for electric reliability in North America

Develops and enforces reliability standards

Analyzes system outages, near-misses and risks and recommends

improved practices

Accountable as electric reliability organization (ERO) to regulators in the

United States (FERC) and Canada (provincial governments)

Assesses current and future risks to reliability


About NERC


About NERC

July 20, 2016

NERC 10th anniversary of being certified as the Electric Reliability Organization by the Federal

Energy Regulatory Commission


• Peak demand forecasts

• Resource adequacy

• Transmission adequacy

• Key issues - emerging trends

Technical challenges

Evolving market practices

System elements/dynamics

Potential legislation/regulation

• Regional self-assessment

• Ad-hoc special Assessments

NERC Reliability Assessment


NERC Planning Committee Subgroup Organizational Chart


• Reserve Margins in all Assessment Areas appear sufficient but continue to trend downward

• A changing resource mix requires additional measures and approaches for assessing future reliability

• Operators and planners face uncertainty with increased levels of distributed energy resources and new technologies

• NERC continues its reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan and other environmental rules

2015 LTRA Key Findings


2015 LTRA Key Findings

• NERC continues its reliability assessment of the Clean Power Plan and other environmental rules

• Early Retirement of Nuclear Plants

• Energy Storage

• Regional/Interconnection-Wide Modeling

• Increasing Nameplate Capacity of Nonsynchronous Generation Compared to Synchronous Generation


NERC Strategic Goals

• Increased NERC Analytical Capabilities

In-house software capabilities

Ad-hock special assessments

• Improve NERC Probabilistic Assessments

Extend the LTRA data with probabilistic reliability measures on all 20 Assessment Areas for two of the 10 years of the LTRA.

Improve Probabilistic Modeling

NERC identified several considerations and lessons learned that should be evaluated before proceeding with additional probabilistic assessments.

Probabilistic Assessment


Uncertainties Impacting Resource Adequacy Planning • Regulatory Policies & Economic Factors

• New technologies on transmission and distribution sides

• Unexpected event or behavior - Extreme Weather

• Generation Resource Uncertainties – future forecast, generation output (for variable

generation), water availability for hydro, EFOR, ramping

• Transmission Uncertainties – future forecast, determination of transmission paths,

time required to build transmission, component outages

• Demand Uncertainties – future load forecast, Demand Side Management

(DSM)/Distributed Resources (DR) program impacts, and distributed generation impacts

• Fuel Uncertainties – Price/delivery system based

Uncertainty Areas


NERC Probabilistic Assessment Effort

• PC Approved GTRPMTF Methodology and Metrics Report in September 2010.

• OBJECTIVE: To provide a common set of probabilistic reliability indices and recommend probabilistic-based work products that could be used to supplement the NERC’s long-term reliability assessments.

• Pilot Assessment Report – 2011

• ProbA Reports –2012 & 2014 Annual EUE

Annual LOLH

EUE as a percentage of Net Energy for Load (normalized EUE).

• ProbA Report –2014 Annual EUE, Annual LOLH, and EUE as a percentage of Net Energy for Load

(normalized EUE).

Scenario Modeling: calculate the LOLH and EUE if load were interrupted to maintain full operating reserves.


NERC Probabilistic Assessment Effort

• Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Force (PAITF) – Formed May 2015

– Objective: Support the identification of improvement opportunities for NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessment and the complementary probabilistic analysis.

– Main deliverables: • Summary and Recommendations Report, December 2015

• Probabilistic Assessment Technical Guideline Document –Draft, July 2016

• Kickoff NERC 2016 ProbA –March, 2016 – Including Enhancements and Recommendations by PAITF

• Integration of Probabilistic Assessment into NERC Long Term Reliability Assessment

– More exposure to the importance of ProbA


• Background: Prepare Probabilistic Assessment Guidelines document to Identify modeling requirements and recommendations, and to support Regional scenarios to study emerging risks to reliability.

• Core Probabilistic Assessment Continuation of the individual area probability

assessments.

Modeling consistency will be improved by following a Probabilistic Assessment Guidelines document.

• NERC-Regional Coordinated Special Assessment Expand the probabilistic study efforts with NERC and the

Regions leading the development and evaluation efforts of additional scenario studies on reliability concerns related to the BPS higher risk areas identified in the LTRA.

Probabilistic Assessment Improvement Task Force


• Core Probabilistic Assessment Metric Reporting Areas

Metrics Descriptions

Metric Calculations

Probabilistic Study Reporting

o Study Frequency and Study Years

Simulation software

• Coordinated NERC Regional Special Assessment Special Assessment Determination

Roles and Responsibilities

Modeling Requirements and Scope of Work

• General Modeling Assumptions Load Modeling

Capacity Modeling

Emergency Operating Procedures

Transmission Modeling

Sensitivity and Scenario Modeling

Data Preparation and Collection

ProbA Technical Guideline Document


Objectives

• Identify practices, requirements and recommendations needed to perform high-quality probabilistic resource adequacy assessments.

• Complement reserve margin analyses in NERC’s Long-Term Reliability Assessments by producing enhanced resource adequacy metrics and modeling approaches.

• Provide NERC and policy makers with far greater insight, understanding, and the perspectives on BPS reliability.

• Support regional scenarios to study reliability issues identified in the Long-Term Reliability Assessment.



ProbA Technical Guidelines

Enhancements Summary

NERC to develop and maintain documentation describing the establishment of Assessment Areas.

1

NERC within the RAS to evaluate the need for a ProbA Working Group

2

Regions and Assessment Areas need to estimate or calculate monthly resource adequacy measures in their metrics calculations

3

Regions and Assessment Areas need to incorporate seasonal variations in their load modeling

4


Enhancements Summary

Regions and Assessment Areas need to incorporate seasonal variations in their modeling of resource outages

5

Assessment Areas need to coordinate with neighboring areas to determine the appropriate amount of capacity transfers

6



Probabilistic Metrics • Annual LOLH

• Monthly LOLH

• Annual EUE, both actual and normalized

• Monthly EUE, both actual and normalized

Probabilistic Study Frequency and Study Years • With inputs from the RAS, RAS-ProbA, PAITF and ERO-RAPA

Probabilistic assessment is on a biennial basis

• Assessment Areas study both year 2 and 4 of the Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA).

• Year 2 reporting is to track and trend resource adequacy measures assessment to assessment.



• Assess the impact of a change in an input (either load, transmission or resource-related) on resource adequacy metrics.

• The runs are performed by changing one input at-a-time in order to isolate the potential impact of each input.

• Ideally, the change in each input should be accompanied by an associated probability.

• The sensitivity modeling should be addressed within the Core Probabilistic Assessment framework.

• Assess the impact of changes in multiples inputs (either load, transmission or resource-related) on resource adequacy metrics.

• The runs are performed by changing multiple inputs at the same time

• Scenarios are likely to be identified in the LTRA or by sensitivity analysis results.

• The scenario modeling should address the reliability issues identified within the LTRA that impact resource adequacy, within the Special-Coordinated Probabilistic Assessment framework

Scenario Modeling Sensitivity Modeling



• 2016 ProbA Enhancements Monthly Probabilistic Measures

Per guidelines, Assessment Areas describe in their narratives the assumptions used to develop ALL modeling categories of their probabilistic studies.



• Special Assessments Coordinated NERC/NPCC pilot assessment on natural gas pipeline

disruptions

• Technical papers/reports: Variable energy resources (VER)

o Diminishing value of solar

o High penetrations –Impact on RM

Ramping issues

LOL calculations with increased VER

• Tools to incorporate transmission modeling into probabilistic assessments

Future and In Progress Effort

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