net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor...

9
Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10 -20000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 140000 160000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 €m illion

Upload: franklin-foster

Post on 17-Jan-2016

217 views

Category:

Documents


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10

-20000

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

160000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

€m

illio

n

Page 2: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out

Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC not treated as Govt sector; ignores deficit reducing guarantee fees etc post 2013.

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

-505

101520253035

Austerity relative 2008 budgetBkg contribution to deficit

Annual€bn

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

020406080

100120140160180

Austerity relative 2008 budgetBkg contribution to deficit

Cumulative€bn

Page 3: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Note: Banking data based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC not treated as Govt sector; ignores deficit reducing guarantee fees etc post 2013. Green bar includes the value of the Government’s holdings of bank equity

20082009

20102011

20122013

20142015

-505

10152025303540

Austerity relative 2008 budgetBkg contribution to deficitBkg outlay including investment

Annual€bn

020406080

100120140160180

Austerity relative 2008 budgetBkg contribution to deficitBkg outlay including investment

Cumulative€bn

Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out

Page 4: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1425000

30000

35000

40000

45000

50000

GDPGNP

Ireland: GDP, GNP 1999-2014Quarterly €mn

Page 5: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 141600

1700

1800

1900

2000

2100

2200

Total employment

Ireland: Total employment thousands, quarterly 1999-2014

Page 6: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Ireland: Construction employment thousands, quarterly 1999-2014

99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 1480

100

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

Construction employment

Page 7: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Q1

19

96

Q4

19

96

Q3

19

97

Q2

19

98

Q1

19

99

Q4

19

99

Q3

20

00

Q2

20

01

Q1

20

02

Q4

20

02

Q3

20

03

Q2

20

04

Q1

20

05

Q4

20

05

Q3

20

06

Q2

20

07

Q1

20

08

Q4

20

08

Q3

20

09

Q2

20

10

Q1

20

11

Q4

20

11

Q3

20

12

Q2

20

13

Q1

20

14

Q4

20

14

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Dublin ESRI

Dublin CSO

Real House Prices Dublin 1996-2014

Page 8: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Irish 10-year yields and spread over bunds 1995-2015

Jan-95

Jan-96

Jan-97

Jan-98

Jan-99

Jan-00

Jan-01

Jan-02

Jan-03

Jan-04

Jan-05

Jan-06

Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-150

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ireland

Germany%

Page 9: Net foreign liabilities of retail banks 2002-10. Relative scale: austerity compared to bank creditor bail-out Note: Based on Smyth and Barnes, 2013; IBRC

Irish 10-year yields and spread over bunds 2007-2013

Jul-07 Jan-08 Jul-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-130

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Ireland

Germany%