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TRANSCRIPT
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Net Lease Trends:Market Snapshot
Q1 2017
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Table of Contents• Economy 3
– Economy 4
• Single-Tenant Overall Market 9– Overall Market 10– Overall Market by Property Type 15
• Single-Tenant Office 24– Overall Office Market 25– Office Market by Region 30
• Single-Tenant Industrial 34– Overall Industrial Market 35– Industrial Market by Region 40
• Single-Tenant Retail 44– Overall Retail Market 45– Retail Market by Region 50– Retail Market by Tenant Type 53
2
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Economy
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EconomyGross Domestic Product (GDP) & Unemployment Rate
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
$16,000
$18,000
$20,000
Q1
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Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
0%
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4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
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Unemployment Rate
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis; shaded area indicates U.S. recession
March 2017: 4.5%Q1 2017: $18,869B
4
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EconomyConsumer Price Index (CPI) & 10 Year Treasury Rate
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
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84
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Consumer Price Index (CPI)
0%
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3%
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6%
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2017
Per
cen
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10 Year Treasury Rate
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Federal Reserve; shaded area indicates U.S. recession
March 31, 2017: 2.40%March 2017: 243.8
5
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EconomyConstruction Spending & Retail Sales
$500,000
$750,000
$1,000,000
$1,250,000
$1,500,000
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Construction Spending
$0
$100,000
$200,000
$300,000
Jan
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Retail & Food Services Sales
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, U.S. Bureau of the Census; shaded area indicates U.S. recession; data is seasonally adjusted
March 2017: $193.2mFebruary 2017: $1,192.8m
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EconomyConsumer Confidence Index & Dow Jones Industrial Average
94
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102
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Consumer Confidence Index
0
5,000
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20,000
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Ind
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Dow Jones Industrial Average
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, OECD, S&P Dow Jones Indices; shaded area indicates U.S. recession
March 2017: 20,663Q1 2017: 100.5
7
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Single-Tenant Overall Market
Overall Market
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, All Property Types
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$2.0
$4.0
$6.0
$8.0
$10.0
$12.0
$14.0
$16.0
$18.0
$20.0
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Quarterly Sales Volume (in billions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in billions) Average Cap Rate
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, All Property Types
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
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9.0%
$0.0
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$30.0
$40.0
$50.0
$60.0
$70.0
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Annual Sales Volume (in billions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in billions) Average Cap Rate
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Average Price Per Square FootSingle-Tenant, All Property Types
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
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Average Price Per Square Foot
Q1 2017: $155.63 psf
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Annual Buyer DistributionSingle-Tenant, All Property Types
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; graphs may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
4%
15%
33%
39%
8%
2013
8%
18%
19%46%
9%
2014
13%
25%
12%
41%
9%
2016
16%
24%
11%
42%
7%
YTD 2017
16%
17%
22%
37%
8%
2015
14
Overall Market by Property Type
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Property Type Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Office $4,097.0 $5,117.7 $5,140.1 $4,957.6 $5,125.2 $8,198.9 $4,526.3
Industrial $3,518.0 $8,550.5 $3,527.6 $4,556.0 $3,938.0 $5,450.0 $3,440.9
Retail $4,693.7 $5,059.7 $3,231.6 $3,332.8 $3,507.9 $4,582.2 $3,465.7
Total Market $12,308.7 $18,727.9 $11,899.2 $12,846.4 $12,571.2 $18,231.1 $11,432.9
Quarterly Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant by Property Type
Average Cap Rates
Property Type Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Office 6.92% 6.79% 6.76% 6.68% 6.63% 6.73% 6.68%
Industrial 6.94% 6.90% 6.85% 6.82% 6.81% 6.74% 6.64%
Retail 6.02% 5.96% 5.96% 5.92% 5.93% 6.00% 6.01%
Total Market 6.32% 6.25% 6.23% 6.18% 6.18% 6.23% 6.24%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Property Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Office $8,404.8 $11,682.1 $16,706.3 $18,887.0 $22,098.4 $23,421.7 $4,526.3
Industrial $9,190.2 $12,166.3 $16,931.0 $16,641.2 $22,338.2 $17,471.6 $3,440.9
Retail $7,699.0 $10,734.8 $13,805.0 $16,553.5 $19,446.9 $14,654.5 $3,465.7
Total Market $25,294.0 $34,583.2 $47,442.3 $52,081.8 $63,883.6 $55,547.9 $11,432.9
Annual Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant by Property Type
Average Cap Rates
Property Type 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Office 7.71% 7.53% 7.18% 7.08% 6.79% 6.73% 6.68%
Industrial 8.05% 7.60% 7.63% 7.13% 6.90% 6.74% 6.64%
Retail 7.34% 7.02% 6.78% 6.32% 5.96% 6.00% 6.01%
Total Market 7.56% 7.23% 7.00% 6.62% 6.25% 6.23% 6.24%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Annual Sales VolumeSingle-Tenant by Property Type
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0.0
$10,000.0
$20,000.0
$30,000.0
$40,000.0
$50,000.0
$60,000.0
$70,000.0
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Annual Sales Volume (in millions)
U.S. Single-Tenant Office U.S. Single-Tenant Industrial U.S. Single-Tenant Retail
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Q1 2017 Sales VolumeSingle-Tenant by Property Type
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$4,526.3
$3,440.9 $3,465.7
$0.0
$500.0
$1,000.0
$1,500.0
$2,000.0
$2,500.0
$3,000.0
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$4,000.0
$4,500.0
$5,000.0
U.S. Single-Tenant Office U.S. Single-Tenant Industrial U.S. Single-Tenant Retail
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Current Quarter Sales Volume (in millions)
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Cap Rates vs. 10 Year TreasurySingle-Tenant by Property Type
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
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7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
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Per
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Quarterly Average Cap Rates vs. 10 Year Treasury Rate
U.S. Single-Tenant Office U.S. Single-Tenant Industrial U.S. Single-Tenant Retail 10 Year Treasury Rate
20
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Average Price Per Square FootSingle-Tenant by Property Type
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Q1
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Average Price Per Square Foot
U.S. Single-Tenant Office U.S. Single-Tenant Industrial U.S. Single-Tenant Retail
21
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Buyer DistributionYTD 2017 Single-Tenant by Property Type
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; graphs may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
28%
27%9%
27%
8%
U.S. Single-Tenant Office
12%
28%
7%
44%
9%
U.S. Single-Tenant Industrial1%
15%
19%
61%
3%
U.S. Single-Tenant Retail
22
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Single-Tenant Office
Overall Office Market
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Office
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
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3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
$8,000.0
$9,000.0
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Quarterly Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Office
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
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$0.0
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Annual Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
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Average Price Per Square FootSingle-Tenant, Office
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
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$350
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Average Price Per Square Foot
Q1 2017: $306.37 psf
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Annual Buyer DistributionSingle-Tenant, Office
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; graphs may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
5%
25%
17%
44%
9%
2013
14%
22%
19%
33%
12%
2014
21%
32%8%
28%
10%
2016
28%
27%9%
27%
8%
YTD 2017
11%
28%
23%
29%
9%
2015
29
Office Market by Region
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic $247.3 $688.9 $954.3 $306.1 $959.6 $1,043.7 $184.6
Midwest $540.0 $587.2 $476.9 $297.1 $743.7 $578.9 $307.7
Northeast $834.1 $1,192.6 $1,375.7 $2,631.1 $625.4 $1,320.0 $1,861.6
Southeast $536.0 $818.2 $443.8 $472.5 $473.1 $939.6 $347.6
Southwest $384.4 $846.8 $373.0 $293.1 $845.5 $1,951.7 $423.3
West $1,555.2 $984.0 $1,516.4 $957.7 $1,478.0 $2,365.0 $1,401.5
Total Office $4,097.0 $5,117.7 $5,140.1 $4,957.6 $5,125.2 $8,198.9 $4,526.3
Quarterly Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Office, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic 7.13% 7.16% 7.08% 6.92% 6.42% 6.68% 6.58%
Midwest 7.26% 7.28% 7.44% 7.29% 7.30% 7.18% 7.07%
Northeast 6.09% 5.79% 5.62% 5.54% 5.87% 5.72% 6.55%
Southeast 7.14% 6.97% 6.92% 7.19% 7.01% 7.23% 7.01%
Southwest 6.97% 6.97% 6.86% 6.93% 6.71% 6.82% 7.01%
West 6.71% 6.38% 6.45% 6.25% 6.20% 6.23% 6.04%
Total Office 6.92% 6.79% 6.76% 6.68% 6.63% 6.73% 6.68%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic $1,662.1 $721.2 $1,694.9 $1,596.9 $2,272.1 $3,263.7 $184.6
Midwest $1,157.6 $1,461.4 $2,108.7 $2,339.3 $2,926.8 $2,096.7 $307.7
Northeast $1,059.4 $2,611.6 $4,232.0 $5,644.2 $4,142.9 $5,952.2 $1,861.6
Southeast $1,135.0 $1,167.5 $1,780.2 $2,531.6 $2,885.4 $2,328.9 $347.6
Southwest $1,960.0 $1,432.7 $2,819.3 $2,556.4 $3,866.5 $3,463.3 $423.3
West $1,430.6 $4,287.7 $3,985.5 $4,218.5 $6,004.8 $6,317.0 $1,401.5
Total Office $8,404.8 $11,682.1 $16,706.3 $18,887.0 $22,098.4 $23,421.7 $4,526.3
Annual Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Office, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic 7.76% 7.92% 6.70% 7.06% 7.16% 6.68% 6.58%
Midwest 7.84% 7.80% 7.53% 7.63% 7.28% 7.18% 7.07%
Northeast 6.99% 7.49% 6.61% 6.67% 5.79% 5.72% 6.55%
Southeast 7.96% 8.11% 7.82% 7.38% 6.97% 7.23% 7.01%
Southwest 8.10% 7.61% 7.40% 7.24% 6.97% 6.82% 7.01%
West 7.31% 6.77% 6.53% 6.63% 6.38% 6.23% 6.04%
Total Office 7.71% 7.53% 7.18% 7.08% 6.79% 6.73% 6.68%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Single-Tenant Industrial
Overall Industrial Market
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Industrial
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
$8,000.0
$9,000.0
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8
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Quarterly Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Industrial
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
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Annual Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
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Average Price Per Square FootSingle-Tenant, Industrial
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
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Do
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Average Price Per Square Foot
Q1 2017: $76.52 psf
38
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Annual Buyer DistributionSingle-Tenant, Industrial
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; graphs may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
5%
13%
41%
32%
10%
2013
5%
21%
16%47%
11%
2014
9%
24%
17%
39%
11%
2016
12%
28%
7%
44%
9%
YTD 2017
28%
12%
21%
30%
9%
2015
39
Industrial Market by Region
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic $298.4 $906.6 $588.7 $360.2 $375.0 $349.9 $206.0
Midwest $753.3 $1,699.5 $544.0 $958.0 $684.2 $1,257.8 $638.5
Northeast $390.5 $885.4 $378.9 $320.1 $301.0 $623.0 $316.5
Southeast $792.2 $1,392.0 $552.7 $747.1 $575.5 $1,050.3 $619.1
Southwest $351.0 $1,177.7 $357.5 $600.0 $809.2 $667.9 $572.5
West $932.7 $2,489.2 $1,105.6 $1,570.5 $1,178.8 $1,357.4 $1,088.3
Total Industrial $3,518.0 $8,550.5 $3,527.6 $4,556.0 $3,938.0 $5,450.0 $3,440.9
Quarterly Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Industrial, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic 7.43% 7.00% 6.76% 6.37% 6.11% 6.26% 6.40%
Midwest 7.56% 7.68% 7.50% 7.43% 7.27% 7.14% 7.17%
Northeast 6.93% 6.76% 6.65% 6.62% 6.62% 6.52% 6.33%
Southeast 7.14% 7.07% 7.04% 7.20% 7.46% 7.26% 7.14%
Southwest 7.16% 7.15% 7.18% 6.98% 7.04% 6.82% 6.87%
West 6.26% 6.17% 6.17% 6.08% 6.02% 5.98% 5.75%
Total Industrial 6.94% 6.90% 6.85% 6.82% 6.81% 6.74% 6.64%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic $826.8 $1,209.4 $2,004.6 $1,498.9 $2,301.4 $1,673.8 $206.0
Midwest $2,122.6 $2,412.3 $4,193.2 $4,252.3 $4,549.0 $3,444.0 $638.5
Northeast $838.6 $907.0 $1,914.6 $1,314.7 $2,231.1 $1,623.1 $316.5
Southeast $1,956.0 $2,357.9 $2,350.5 $3,310.8 $4,268.0 $2,925.6 $619.1
Southwest $1,075.8 $1,357.5 $2,162.1 $2,202.0 $2,806.5 $2,434.6 $572.5
West $2,370.4 $3,922.2 $4,306.0 $4,062.6 $6,102.3 $5,212.3 $1,088.3
Total Industrial $9,190.2 $12,166.3 $16,931.0 $16,641.2 $22,338.2 $17,471.6 $3,440.9
Annual Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Industrial, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic 8.11% 7.97% 7.20% 7.40% 7.00% 6.26% 6.40%
Midwest 8.71% 8.24% 7.79% 7.15% 7.68% 7.14% 7.17%
Northeast 8.31% 7.61% 7.76% 7.16% 6.76% 6.52% 6.33%
Southeast 8.50% 7.82% 7.94% 7.40% 7.07% 7.26% 7.14%
Southwest 7.78% 7.68% 7.85% 7.79% 7.15% 6.82% 6.87%
West 7.54% 6.95% 7.11% 6.47% 6.17% 5.98% 5.75%
Total Industrial 8.05% 7.60% 7.63% 7.13% 6.90% 6.74% 6.64%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
42
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going beyond
Single-Tenant Retail
Overall Retail Market
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Retail
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$1,000.0
$2,000.0
$3,000.0
$4,000.0
$5,000.0
$6,000.0
$7,000.0
$8,000.0
$9,000.0
Q1
200
6
Q1
200
7
Q1
200
8
Q1
200
9
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Quarterly Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
46
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Sales Volume & Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Retail
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
$0.0
$5,000.0
$10,000.0
$15,000.0
$20,000.0
$25,000.0
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
YT
D 2
017
Mill
ion
s o
f D
olla
rs
Annual Sales Volume (in millions) vs. Average Cap Rates
Sales Volume (in millions) Average Cap Rate
47
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Average Price Per Square FootSingle-Tenant, Retail
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
Q1
200
6
Q1
200
7
Q1
200
8
Q1
200
9
Q1
2010
Q1
2011
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Do
llars
Average Price Per Square Foot
Q1 2017: $258.23 psf
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Annual Buyer DistributionSingle-Tenant, Retail
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; graphs may not total 100 percent due to rounding.
3%6%
43%44%
4%
2013
4%
11%
21%
60%
5%
2014
3%
15%
11%
66%
6%
2016
1%
15%
19%
61%
3%
YTD 2017
8%11%
22%55%
5%
2015
49
Retail Market by Region
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic $491.1 $330.0 $256.3 $286.4 $127.3 $307.4 $151.7
Midwest $696.7 $896.5 $689.9 $460.8 $729.0 $1,718.8 $774.7
Northeast $1,059.4 $953.0 $600.4 $599.9 $606.3 $502.9 $518.5
Southeast $983.4 $702.5 $551.6 $854.8 $581.5 $736.4 $665.6
Southwest $426.8 $725.8 $401.5 $426.5 $561.5 $641.0 $425.8
West $1,036.2 $1,451.8 $649.4 $678.9 $902.4 $675.8 $929.4
Total Retail $4,693.7 $5,059.7 $3,231.6 $3,332.8 $3,507.9 $4,582.2 $3,465.7
Quarterly Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Retail, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region Q3 2015 Q4 2015 Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017
Mid-Atlantic 6.12% 6.09% 6.02% 6.02% 6.03% 6.08% 6.22%
Midwest 6.40% 6.31% 6.43% 6.48% 6.49% 6.55% 6.61%
Northeast 5.69% 5.71% 5.52% 5.34% 5.33% 5.28% 5.21%
Southeast 6.25% 6.14% 6.12% 5.97% 5.98% 6.07% 6.12%
Southwest 6.11% 6.02% 6.07% 6.00% 6.01% 6.07% 5.95%
West 5.49% 5.51% 5.48% 5.51% 5.53% 5.54% 5.62%
Total Retail 6.02% 5.96% 5.96% 5.92% 5.93% 6.00% 6.01%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
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Sales Volume (in millions)
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic $768.1 $961.0 $925.4 $1,465.3 $1,377.7 $977.4 $151.7
Midwest $1,353.6 $1,527.6 $3,035.3 $3,135.8 $3,148.9 $3,598.4 $774.7
Northeast $1,932.1 $2,012.8 $1,713.1 $2,672.2 $4,299.1 $2,309.5 $518.5
Southeast $1,348.6 $1,939.8 $3,387.0 $3,698.5 $3,159.3 $2,724.3 $665.6
Southwest $731.9 $1,047.3 $1,961.2 $1,809.5 $2,346.8 $2,030.4 $425.8
West $1,505.0 $2,977.2 $2,419.5 $3,361.1 $5,115.1 $2,906.5 $929.4
Total Retail $7,699.0 $10,734.8 $13,805.0 $16,553.5 $19,446.9 $14,654.5 $3,465.7
Annual Market StatisticsSingle-Tenant Retail, by Region
Average Cap Rates
Region 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YTD 2017
Mid-Atlantic 7.18% 6.95% 7.01% 6.32% 6.09% 6.08% 6.22%
Midwest 7.50% 7.04% 6.90% 6.69% 6.31% 6.55% 6.61%
Northeast 7.28% 6.62% 6.21% 5.78% 5.71% 5.28% 5.21%
Southeast 7.47% 7.33% 6.93% 6.56% 6.14% 6.07% 6.12%
Southwest 7.71% 7.03% 7.14% 6.31% 6.02% 6.07% 5.95%
West 6.86% 6.78% 6.34% 5.97% 5.51% 5.54% 5.62%
Total Retail 7.34% 7.02% 6.78% 6.32% 5.96% 6.00% 6.01%
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, Real Capital Analytics; analysis includes sales greater than $2.5m; total market statistics may not equal the sum of individual property types due to rounding
52
Retail Market by Tenant Type
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Automotive
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Advance Auto Parts AutoZone O'Reilly Auto Parts
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Casual Dining Restaurants
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Applebee's Buffalo Wild Wings Golden Corral IHOP Panera Bread
55
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Dollar Stores
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Dollar General Dollar Tree Family Dollar
56
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Drugstores
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
11.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
CVS Rite Aid Walgreens
57
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Quick Service Restaurants (Burgers & Chicken)
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Burger King KFC McDonald's Wendy's
58
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Average Cap RatesSingle-Tenant, Quick Service Restaurants (Other)
Source: Stan Johnson Company Research, CoStar Group
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
8.0%
9.0%
10.0%
Q1
2012
Q1
2013
Q1
2014
Q1
2015
Q1
2016
Q1
2017
Arby's Dunkin' Donuts Starbucks Taco Bell
59
going beyondLanie BeckDirector of [email protected]
www.stanjohnsonco.com/research-library
©2017 Stan Johnson Company. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced by any means without prior written permission of Stan Johnson Company. The information contained in this publication has been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. Stan Johnson Company accepts no liability or responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and no reliance should be placed on the information contained in this publication.