Solutions for Today | Options for Tomorrow

NETL’s Systems Engineering & Analysis

May 16, 2017

Overview

2

NETL Core Competencies

Materials Engineering & Manufacturing

• Structural & Functional

• Design, Synthesis, &

Performance

Geological & Environmental

Systems

• Air, Water & Geology

• Understanding &

Mitigation

Energy Conversion Engineering

• Component & Device

• Design & Validation

Systems Engineering & Analysis

• Process & System

• Optimization, Validation,

& Economics

Effective Resource Development • Efficient Energy Conversion • Environmental Sustainability

ComputationalScience &

Engineering

• High Performance

Computing

• Data Analytics

Program Execution & Integration

• Technical Project

Management

• Market & Regulatory

Analysis

3

Vision

Systems Engineering & AnalysisVision

Systems Engineering & Analysis vision is

• to become the world’s premier resource for the

development and analysis of innovative advanced

energy systems and

• to provide unprecedented breadth of integrated

modeling and optimization capability to support

decision making and analysis across multiple scales.

This competency will support technology innovation and

maturation at the process level as well as enable better

identification, evaluation and prioritization of R&D

concepts at earlier stages, including the consideration of

broader energy system and market needs and impacts.

4

Energy Systems Analysis

Systems Engineering & Analysis (SEA)Teams and Scope

Process Systems Engineering Research

Energy Process Analysis

Energy Markets AnalysisEnergy Economy Modeling and Impact Assessment• Enhanced fossil energy representation• Multi-model scenario/policy analysis• Grid, infrastructure, energy-water

Resource Availability and Cost Modeling• CO2 storage (saline and EOR)• Fossil fuel extraction• Rare earth elements• General subsurface technology

evaluation and support

Environmental Life Cycle Analysis

Energy Process Design, Analysis, and Cost Estimation• Plant-level modeling, performance assessment• Cost estimation for

plant-level systems• General plant-level

technology evaluation and support

• Economic impact assessment• General regulatory, market

and financial expertise

• Process synthesis, design, optimization, intensification

• Steady state and dynamic process model development

• Uncertainty quantification• Advanced process control

Design, optimization, and modeling framework to be expanded to all SEA “systems”

Travis Shultz

Dr. Peter Balash

Dr. Charles Zelek

Associate Director, Kristin Gerdes Senior Research Fellow, Dr. David Miller

5

• 35 Federal Personnel

• Site Support Contractors• ~50 FTEs

• Mission Execution & Strategic Analysis (MESA)

• Research & Engineering Services (RES)

• Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education (ORISE)• ~15 graduate students, post doctoral students, faculty

• Partnerships

SEA Personnel ResourcesEngineers, Scientists & Economists

6

• Develop new computational tools and models to enable industry to more rapidly develop and deploy new advanced energy technologies• Base development on industry needs/constraints• Emphasis on supporting post-combustion capture technologies

• Demonstrate the capabilities of the CCSI Toolset on non-proprietary case studies• Examples of how new capabilities improve ability to develop capture

technology

• Deploy the CCSI Toolset to industry

• Collaborate with industry to use the tools to support technology development and scale up

Goals & Objectives (2011-2016)

Industry Collaborators

➢ Early stage R&D

‒ Screening concepts

‒ Identify conditions to focus development

‒ Prioritize data collection & test conditions

➢ Pilot scale

‒ Ensure the right data is collected

‒ Support scale-up design

➢ Demo scale

‒ Design the right process

‒ Support deployment with reduced risk

New Capabilities for Modeling & SimulationMaximize the learning at each stage of technology development

2016 R&D 100 Award

• Challenge: Develop and utilize multi-scale, simulation-based computational tools and models to support the design, analysis, optimization, scale-up, and troubleshooting of innovative, advanced fossil energy systems with carbon capture.

• Next generation modeling and optimization platform

– Current tools insufficient to address demands of integrated advanced fossil energy systems. Needs a more flexible and open modeling environment

– Supports advanced solvers and computer architecture

– Process Synthesis, Integration, and Intensification

– Process Control and Dynamics

– Link to larger systems

• Apply to development of new and novel energy systems

Development of Innovative Advanced Energy Systems

Through Advanced Process Systems Engineering

• Advanced computational tools and simulation techniques enable innovation and the more rapid development of advanced highly efficient, low-emission power plants

• Assess new concepts using computational simulations to enable prioritization of research areas

9

• Systems/Subsystems Modeled• Combustion Systems

(coal and natural gas)• Gasification Systems (dry and

slurry feed, coal and biomass)• Oxycombustion Systems

(atmospheric and elevated pressure)

• Chemical Looping • Solid Oxide Fuel Cells• Fuels and Chemicals

Production from Fossil Fuels Supercritical CO2 Power Cycles (direct and indirect)

• Process Water Treatment/ Zero Liquid Discharge Systems

• Direct Power Extraction/ Magnetohydrodyanmics

Process Modeling Experience

• CO2 Capture Systems (solvent, sorbent, membrane, cryogenic)

• CO2 Purification and Compression

• Air Separation Units (cryogenic, ion transport membrane)

• Hydrogen Recovery (membranes, sorbents)

• Combustion Turbines• Steam Turbines (subcritical

through adv. ultrasupercritical steam conditions)

• CO2 Utilization Technologies (EOR, Cements, Plastics, Chemicals

1. Process Simulation and Conceptual Design• Process synthesis and system integration

• Simulation of major chemical processes

• Modeling of major equipment

3. Discounted Cash Flow Analysis• Project finance structure

• Capital expenditure and

operational schedule

• Taxes and Depreciation

• Inflation and escalation rates

Tools• Aspen Plus ®

• Thermoflow

• Chemcad

• NETL Models

Performance Calculations• Detailed mass and

energy balances

• Efficiency and

emissions

• Water consumption

• Equipment sizing,

specs

Cost Data• Vendor Quotes

• EPC Database

• Published Data

• Commercial

Software

• DOE RD&D

Projects

• Internal

Estimates

• R&D Targets

• NETL Models

Tools

• NETL’s Power

Systems Financial

Model (PSFM)

• Other financial

tools

2. Cost Estimation • CAPEX

(equipment,

labor, EPC fees,

contingencies)

• O&M Costs

10

• TEA - system-level performance and cost analysis at commercial scale• Comprised of multiple cases – State-of-the-art reference

and advanced technology case(s)

• NETL Baseline series frequently used as SOA reference.

• Comparison of relevant figures of merit (e.g., efficiency, cost of electricity) can provide:• Identification of critical performance and cost parameters

for novel process technology

• Quantification of performance and cost goals for the novel process technology

• NETL QGESS provides detailed guidance and best practices for executing a TEA

Quality Guidelines for Energy System StudiesPerforming a Techno-Economic Analysis (TEA) for Power Generation Plants

11

• Example CO2 Transportation and Storage (T&S) Costs1

• CO2 transported 100 km, stored in the Illinois or Powder River

Basins and monitored for 50 years post-injection

CO2 Transport and Storage Cost Modeling

1National Energy Technology Laboratory. Quality Guidelines for Energy System Studies: Carbon Dioxide Transport and Storage Costs in NETL Studies. Pittsburgh, PA : Department of Energy, 2014. DOE/NETL-2014/1653

12

Produce unbiased LCAs of energy systems

• Inform and defend technology programs, and identify opportunities for R&D

• Baseline different energy technologies

• Understand technology strengths andweaknesses from a life cycle perspective

Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) Research at NETLA comprehensive form of analysis that evaluates the environmental, economic, and social attributes of energy systems ranging from the extraction of raw materials from the ground to the use of the energy carrier to perform work.

System of Interest

Product transportation, use & disposal

Resource extraction, processing & transportation

Additional environmental impacts to air, soil & water

Improve LCA methods

• Expand environmental inventory

• Characterize both variability and multiple types of uncertainty

• Build flexible models

• Enhance interpretation & comparability of inventory results without losing depth and transparency

Inform energy policy decision-makers

Conduct cooperative research and provide national leadership

13

• Proximity to storage analysis

• Projected capture deployment analysis (MarkAl)

• Plant age analysis

• Unit operation and profitability analysis (PROMOD)

• Remaining operational life analysis (NEMS)

• Market/Local incentive analysis

• Optimal plants identified

Optimal Project Siting Through Infrastructure Analysis22 plants in 10 states as candidates for carbon capture retrofit

14

Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts: Coal Program Example

Baseline Data & Model

Development

Set R&D Goals and Evaluate Progress

Project deployment of Technologies

Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D

NETL Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants

NETL CO2 Capture, Transport, Utilization, and Storage -National Energy Modeling System (CTUS-NEMS)

• Detailed, transparent account of plant information

• Key resource for government, academia and industry

• Adopted by EIA; used in AEO’s 2014/15/16/17

NETL CO2 Saline Storage Cost Model (onshore and offshore)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

0 10 20 30 40

Mcf

/STB

Years

CO2 Utilization Factor

ver 1 ver 2

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0 10 20 30 40

Frac

tio

n

Years

CO2 Retention Factor

ver 1 ver 2

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

0 10 20 30 40M

STB

Years

Annual Oil Production

ver 1 ver 2

Borehole bottom locations mapped by play name

NETL CO2 Prophet Model for Enhanced Oil Recovery

NetPay

GrossPay

Oil Bearing Formation

Gas Cap

Aquifer/ ROZ

Oil Zone

15

Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts:Coal Program Example

Evaluate Technology

Potential

Set Program and Technology Goals

Assess Market Competitiveness

Baseline Data & Model Development

Set R&D Goals and Evaluate Progress

Project Deployment of Technologies

Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D

NETL Current and Future Technology Pathway Studies

IGCC, IGFC, Oxy-combustion, Post-Combustion Capture

Goals shown are for greenfield plants. Costs are nth-of-a-kind and include compression to 2215 psia but exclude CO

2 transport and storage costs.

SOTA 2025 Demo 2030 Demo

Cost of Electricity Reduction Targets

New Plants

Consider regulatory, environmental constraints including full life cycle emissions and costs

16

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

No RD&D RD&D No RD&D RD&D

Gig

awat

ts

NG Retrofits

New Gas CCS

Coal Retrofits

New Coal CCS

Assessing Program Portfolio Impacts:Coal Program Example

Baseline Data & Model

Development

Set and Evaluate

Progress to R&D Goals

Project Deployment of Technologies

Estimate Potential Benefits of CCRP RD&D

Estimate Potential Benefits of RD&D

New CCS Capacity and Associated Captured CO2

2025 2040

New NG CCS

New NG CCS

Coal Retrofits

New Coal CCS

NG Retrofits

New NG CCS

Coal Retrofits

U.S. Benefits of the Program, Cumulative through 2040

Benefit Area Metric

Economic Growth Total Electricity Expenditure Savings

Employment

Income

Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

Environmental

Sustainability

CO2 Captured at Coal and Gas CCS Facilities

Energy Security Additional Domestic Oil Production via EOR

$

17

Kristin.gerdes@netl.doe.govhttps://www.netl.doe.gov/research/energy-analysis