neto segasna vrednost 2009-stojanovski

8/13/2019 Neto Segasna Vrednost 2009-Stojanovski

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struni prilozi

OCENARENTABILNOSTII RIZINOSTIPROJEKTNOGFINANSIRANJA

RezimeProjektno nansiranje se po mnogo emu razlikuje od klasinog kreditiranja. Osnovna

karakteristika je to da se povrat uloenih sredstava oekuje iz novanih priliva koje odbacuje projekata ne od samog dunika. Od uspenosti projekta zavisi uspenost ulaganja. Klasina ocena bonitetadunika na osnovu njegovih nansskih izvetaja ne koristi mnogo u donoenju odluke o nansiranju

nekog projekta. Obino se za potrebe izvoenja nekog projekta formira rma za posebne namene koja

kao novoosnovano preduzee najee i nema bilanse ili ima slabe bilanse. Kljuna stvar kod analize

investicionih projekata jeste kvalitetna projekca oekivanih novanih tokova projekta i procena

rizinosti projekta. Osnovne metode za procenu rentabilnosti investicionih projekata su neto sadanja

vrednost (NPV), interna stopa povrata (IRR) i indeks protabilnosti (BCR). Ovo su eliminacioni

kriterumi ocene investicionih projekata. Pored ovih koriste se i kriterumi odrivosti projekta, a

pre svega testiranje likvidnosti projekta tokom perioda otplate kredita, ocena praga rentabilnosti

projekta, kao i testiranje osetljivosti projekta na razliite promene ulaznih parametara (mikro imakro varabli). Takoe znaajan aspekt analize jeste utvrivanje svih rizika koji prate projekat i

mogu umanjiti oekivane novane tokove projekta. Nakon identikovanja rizika, sagledavaju se

mogunosti njihovog umanjenja. Deo rizika koji ne mogue ublaiti potrebno je ugraditi u cenu

kapitala konkretnog projekta. U projektno nansiranje se ulazi samo ukoliko konkretna investicazadovoljava eliminacione i funkcionalne kriterume ocene. Pored ovoga, esto se prilikom odluivanja

kod projektnog nansiranja nameu i drugi znaajni kriterumi ocene isplativosti i znaaja projekta,npr. ekoloki kriterumi, energetska ekasnost, drutvena odgovornost, regionalni ili strateki znaaj

itd.Kljune rei: Special purpose vechicle, Eliminacioni kriterumi, Funkcionalni kriterumi, NPV - Net

present value, IRR - Internal rate of return, BCR - Benet-cost ratio, Breakeven point, CAPM - Capitalasset pricing model, Diskontna stopa

mr ore Stojanovski*

* Banca Intesa Beograd [email protected]

UDK 005.8


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expert contributions

ASSESSMENT OFPROFITABILITYAND PROJECTFINANCE RISK

SummaryProject nance is way dierent from typical crediting. The main characteristic is that the return of

the invested funds is expected from the cash inows generated by the project itself, and not from the

debtor. Whether the investment will be successful depends on whether the project is successful. Theclassic assessment of the debtors creditworthiness on the basis of its nancial reports is not used toa great extent when reaching a decision on nancing a certain project. For the needs of some project,a special purpose vehicle is usually formed, which, as a newly-established company, in most casesdoes not even have a balance sheet, or has the weak balance sheets. The key thing when it comesto investment projects analysis is the high-quality forecast of the expected projects cash ows, alongwith the project risk assessment. The main methods for assessing the investment projects protability

are net present value (NPV), internal rate of return (IRR), and benet-cost ratio (BCR). These are theelimination criteria for the investment projects assessment. Apart from these, the project sustainability

criteria are also used, rst and foremost the project liquidity testing during the credit payback period,

the estimation of the project protability threshold, as well as testing the projects sensitivity to thevarious changes of the input parameters (micro and macro variables). Another signicant aspect ofthe analysis is the identication of all risks accompanying the project that may reduce the expectedprojects cash ows. Upon identication of risks, the possibilities of their mitigation are considered.The risks that are not possible to mitigate are to be integrated into the price of capital of the concreteproject. Project nance is launched only if the concrete investment meets the elimination and

functional assessment criteria. In addition, the decision-making in project nance is oen inuencedby some other important criteria for the project protability and signicance assessment, such as, forinstance, environmental protection criteria, energy-wise eciency, social responsibility, regional andstrategic importance, etc.

Keywords: Special Purpose Vehicle, Elimination Criteria, Functional Criteria, NPV (Net PresentValue), IRR (Internal Rate of Return), BCR (Benet-Cost Ratio), Breakeven Point, CAPM (Capital

Asset Pricing Model), Discount Rate

ore Stojanovski MA*

* Banca Intesa [email protected]

UDC 005.8


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Projektno nansiranje je nansiranjespecinog investicionog projekta gdese naplata oekuje iz novanog tokakoji projekat odbacuje. Primeri su projekti

izgradnje zgrada, rudnika, fabrika, puteva,

gasovoda, vodovoda, brodova, bolnica, kolaitd. Projektno nansiranje se razlikuje od

tradicionalnog oblika nansiranja u tome to

kreditori posmatraju aktivu i novane tokove

projekta kao izvor povrata uloenih sredstava.Kod projektnog nansiranja povrat uloenih

sredstava najee ne zavisi od ostale imovinei prihoda dunika ili sponzora projekta.

Rizinost samog dunika ne toliko vana

kao kod redovnog kreditnog posla. Kreditna

analiza se sastoji od ocene ekasnosti projektai identikace i upravljanja rizicima projekta.

Centar analize je projekat a ne dunik. Dunikje najee rma za posebne namene (eng.

special purpose vechicle ili special purpose

entity) kojoj je jedina imovina projekat, a jediniizvor sredstava kredit doben za nansiranje

projekta. U sluaju projekata velike vrednosti

esto se u ulozi kreditora pojavljuje vie banaka

kroz tzv. sindicirano nansiranje.

Kod projektnog nansiranja, investicemogu biti vraene samo ukoliko se projekat

uspeno zavri i postane operativan. Ukoliko

projekat propadne, kreditori gube najvei deouloenih sredstava. Imovina koja preostaje u

propalom projektu je najee suvie specina,

nedostupna i ima veoma malu vrednost izvandatog projekta. Zbog rizika i specinosti

koje projektno nansiranje podrazumeva,

trokovi ovakvog nansiranja su obino

vii a vreme odluivanja za odobravanjenansskih sredstava mnogo due od obinogkreditiranja.

Osnovne karakteristike svakog projekta susledee: u pitanju je investiciono ulaganje odnosno

ulaganje sa rokom duim od godinu dana, ulaganje se vri radi oekivane koristi i postoji rizik neostvarenja oekivane koristi.

Kreditna analiza projektnognansiranja

Poto primena kriteruma ocene

rentabilnosti projekta i rizika neostvarenja

projekata podrazumeva utvrivanje odreenih

pokazatelja (apsolutnih i relativnih), neophodno

je nameravani projekat elaborirati tako da se na

osnovu mnogobrojnih podataka izvre sledeeanalize : analiza sposobnosti investitora da realizuje

projekat (raspoloiva sopstvena sredstva,kadrovska osposobljenost, nansski

poloaj), analiza trita nabavke i prodaje (mogunosti

i uslovi nabavke inputa i mogunosti i uslovi

prodaje autputa tehniko-tehnoloka analiza (denisanje

proizvodnog programa, izvodljivosti i

vremenske duine graevinskih radova,

izbor potrebne tehnologe, denisanje

potrebnih ulaganja i sl.), nansska analiza (pretvaranje ziki

denisanih veliina iz prethodno navedenih

analiza, uz primenu odgovarajuih cena, unansske veliine)

analiza rizika projektnog nansiranja i

utvrivanje zahtevane stope prinosa na

kapital.Radi realnosti navedenih analiza potrebno

je odrediti vek projekta (period izgradnje i

eksploatace), jer sva ulaganja i koristi imajusvoju dinamiku tokom veka projekta.

Kljuni parametri za utvrivanje duine

veka projekta su: period u kom e postojati potranja za

autputom projekta, tehniko-ekonomske karakteristike objekta

i/ili opreme, vreme otplate kredita koji se koriste

u zatvaranju konstrukce nansiranja

projekta.Za potrebu ocene rentabilnosti projekta

bitno je nekoliko kljunih dokumenata

(pregleda) koji se formiraju u postupku gore

navedenih analiza i to: pregled potrebnih ulaganja po vrstama

i dinamici sa planiranim izvorima

nansiranja, projekca bilansa uspeha za period

eksploatace projekta,

ekonomski tok projekta koji obuhvataperiod izgradnje i period eksploatace i

nansski tok projekta koji takoe obuhvata

period izgradnje i period eksploatace

projekta.Pregled potrebnih ulaganja sadri


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Project nance represents nancing of aspecic investment project, where thepayment is expected from the cash owgenerated by the project itself. The examples are

the projects of construction of buildings, mines,

factories, roads, gas pipelines, waterworks,ships, hospitals, schools, etc. Project nance

diers from the traditional form of nance

because the creditors consider the assets and

the projects cash ows to be the source of

return of the invested funds. In project nance,the return of the invested funds in most casesdoes not depend on the remaining assets and

revenues of the debtor or the projects sponsor.The risk of the debtors themselves is not that

important as in the regular lending operations.Credit analysis consists of the project eciencyassessment, and the project risks identicationand management. The center of the analysis isthe project, not the debtor. The debtor is usually

a special purpose vehicle (or a special purposeentity), whose only assets is the project, the only

source of funds being the credit extended for

the project nance. In case of the large-value

projects, the creditor is oen represented

by several banks, in a so-called syndicatednance.

In project nance the investments may

be returned only if the project is successfully

completed and becomes operative. If the

project fails, the creditors lose the majority

of their invested funds. The assets remaining

behind the failed project is usually too specic,inaccessible and has very lile value outside

the set project. Due to the risks involved and

the specicities of project nance, the costs ofthis kind of nance are usually higher, and theperiod of time needed for making the decisionon granting the nancial funds much longer

than in the case of regular lending operations.The main characteristics of each project are

the following: It is a long-term investment, i.e. investment

with a tenor longer than one year; The investment has the purpose of gaining

an expected benet; There is a risk of non-fulllment of the

expected benet.

Project Finance Credit Analysis

Given that the application of the criteria

for project protability assessment and projectfailure risk imply identication of certain

indicators (absolute and relative), it is necessaryto elaborate on the intended project so that,

on the basis of abundant data, the following

analyses are conducted: Analysis of the investors capability to nish

the project (available own funds, skilled

personnel, nancial position); Analysis of procurement and sales

markets (possibilities and conditions for

input procurement, and possibilities and

conditions for output sales); Technical-technological analysis (denitionof the production programme, feasibility

and construction work duration, choice of

the required technology, denition of the

necessary investments, etc.); Financial analysis (turning the gures

physically dened in the previously

conducted analyses into nancial gures,

by applying the appropriate prices);

Analysis of the project nance risk, andidentication of the required rate of returnon capital.In order for these analyses to be realistic, it is

necessary to determine the lifetime of the project

(period of construction and exploitation), sinceall investments and benets follow their own

dynamics during the projects lifetime.The key parameters for determining the

projects lifetime are the following:

Period in which there is a demand for theprojects output;

Technical-economical characteristics of the

entity and/or equipment; Payback period for the credits used in the

project nance construction.For the purpose of project protability

assessment, there are several crucial documents

(examinations) formed in the process of

the above-mentioned analyses, such as the

following: Examination of the necessary investments

by type and dynamics related to the planned

sources of nance; Prot and loss statement forecast for the

period of project exploitation;


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neophodna ulaganja u osnovna sredstva po

tehnikoj strukturi i dinamici kao i ulaganja uobrtna sredstva. Izvori nansiranja mogu biti

iskazani kao sastavni deo ovog pregleda ili kaoposeban pregled.

Projekca bilansa uspeha obuhvata periodeksploatace projekta iima sledei strukturu: u prihodnom delu:

poslovne prihode

i nansske

prihode, u rashodnom delu:

poslovne rashode

i nansske

rashode.Ekonomski tok

projekta je pregled

koji obuhvata podatkeo onim poslovnim

dogaajima u okviru

veka projekta koji

utiu na ekonomski

potencal projekta.

Ekonomski tok

ukljuuje samoneposredne uinke

projekta, a vrednost

inputa i autputa se

iskazuju po stalnim

trinim cenama.Ekonomski tok ima

sledeu strukturu: novane prilive, novane odlive i

neto novani prilivkao razliku izmeunovanih priliva i

odliva.Novani prilivi u

ekonomskom toku su

oni poslovni dogaaji

koji poveavaju

ekonomski potencal

projekta (poslovni

prihodi i ostatakvrednosti koja

prezentuje preostalu

vrednost ulaganja na

kraju ekonomskog

veka projekta).

Novani odlivi u ekonomskom toku su

oni poslovni dogaaji izraeni u novanim

jedinicama koji smanjuju ekonomski potencalprojekta (materalni trokovi bez amortizace,proizvodne usluge, plate radnika, porezi i

doprinosi i nemateralni trokovi).Neto novani prilivu ekonomskom toku

je razlika izmeu

novanih priliva

i odliva, i u svojoj

strukturi sadri zbir

poslovnog dobitka,

amortizace i ostatka

vrednosti umanjene

za vrednost potrebnihulaganja. Pozitivan

ili negativan iznos

neto novanog priliva

daje odgovor da li je

poveana ili smanjena

materalna osnova

projekta, odnosno

investitora. Drugim

reima neto novani

priliv slui kao osnovaza primenu kriteruma

ekasnosti projekta.Finansski tok

projekta je pregled kojiobuhvata sve novane

prilive i odlive iz

ekonomskog toka, s

tim to, pored istih,

obuhvata i novane

prilive i odlive poosnovu nansiranja

projekta (uzeti krediti

ili emitovane dunikeharte od vrednosti,

kao i kamate i

otplate istih shodno

planiranim uslovima

nasiranja).

Kriterumirentabilnostiprojekta

Kako u teori tako

i u praksi postoje

Renik pojmova:

1. Special purpose vechicle - rma za

posebne namene. Firma osnovana sa

ciljem realizace nekog konkretnog i

specinog posla, npr. investiranja ili

izvoenja nekog projekta.2. Eliminacioni kriterumi - minimalni

kriterumi isplativosti nekog projektapod pretpostavkom realizace

oekivanih novanih tokova (prinosa)

i procenjene cene kapitala3. Funkcionalni kriterumi - kriterumi

odrivosti projekta u uslovima

promene nekih mikro i makro varabli(pretpostavki) koje utiu na ocenu

isplativosti projekta4. NPV - Net present value. Neto sadanja

vrednost oekivanih novanih tokova(priliva i odliva) projekta.

5. IRR - Internal rate of return. Interna

stopa povrata (prinosa) projekta. Govori

o maksimalno prihvatljivoj ceni kapitala

pod kojom se isplati ulaziti u projekat6. BCR - Benet-cost ratio. Indeks

protabilnosti projekta. Govori o odnosu

sadanje vrednosti svih novanih priliva

i sadanje vrednosti svih novanih

odliva po osnovu projekta (ukljuujuii inicalno investiciono ulaganje).

7. Breakeven point - Prelomna taka.

Taka ili prag rentabilnosti projekta.

Govori o minimalnoj iskorienosti

kapaciteta odnosno minimalnoj

realizaci proizvodnje i prodaje pri kojoj

je projekat i dalje isplativ.8. CAPM - Capital asset pricing model.

Model za utvrivanje adekvatne

cene kapitala, odnosno zahtevanestope prinosa na kapital za konkretan

projekat9. Diskontna stopa - zahtevana stopa

prinosa na kapital ili cena kapitala


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Economic ow of the project, including both

the period of construction and the period ofexploitation; and

Financial ow of the project, also includingboth the period of construction and the

period of exploitation.The review of thenecessary investments

contains the required

investments in capital

assets by technical

structure and

dynamics, along with

the investments in

working capital. The

sources of nance maybe given as an integralpart of this review or

as a separate review.Prot and loss

statement forecast

includes the

exploitation period of

the project, and has the

following structure:

In revenues section:business revenues

and nancial

revenues; In expenditures

section: business

e x p e n d i t u r e s

and nancial

expenditures.The economic ow

of the project is areview including the

data on those businessevents within the

projects lifetime that

inuence the economic

potential of the project.

The economic ow

records only the directperformance of the

project, the input andoutput value being

expressed only in xed

market prices.The economic ow

has the following

structure: Cash inows; Cash outows; and Net cash inow as a dierence between cash

inows and outows.

Cash inows within the economic ow arethose business eventsthat increase the

economic potential of

the project (business

revenues, and the

rest of the value

representing the

investment value

remaining at the end of

the economic lifetimeof the project).

Cash outows

within the economic

ow are those business

events expressed in

cash units reducing

the economic

potential of the

project (material costs

without amortization,production services,

workers wages, taxes

and contributions, andnon-material costs).

Net cash inow

within the economic

ow represents the

dierence between

cash inows and

outows, its structurecontaining the sum

of business revenues,

amortization and

the remaining value

reduced by the

required investments

value. The positive or

negative amount of net

cash inow provides

an answer to thequestion of whether

the material base of the

project, i.e. investor,

has been increased

or reduced. In other

Glossary:

1. Special Purpose Vehicle - A company

established with a view to completing

a concrete and specic operation, for

instance, an investment or a project.2. Elimination Criteria - The minimum

criteria for some projects protability,

under the assumption of achievementof the expected cash ows (revenues)

and the estimated price of capital.3. Functional Criteria - The criteria for

the projects sustainability under the

conditions of changing some of the micro

and macro variables (assumptions)

inuencing the project protability

assessment.4. NPV (Net Present Value) - The net

present value of the expected cash ows(inows and outows) of the project.

5. IRR (Internal Rate of Return) - The

internal rate of return of the project. It

indicates the maximum acceptable price

of capital which will make the project

protable.6. BCR (Benet-Cost Ratio) - The project

protability index. It indicates the ratiobetween the present value of all cash

inows and the present value of allcash outows in respect of the project

(including the initial investments).7. Breakeven Point - The project

protability point or threshold. It

indicates the minimum capacity usage,i.e. the minimum volume of productionand sales at which the project is still

protable.8. CAPM (Capital Asset Pricing Model)

- A model for determining the adequateprice of capital, i.e. the required rate

of return on capital for the concrete

project.9. Discount Rate - The required rate of

return on capital or price of capital.


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mnogobrojni kriterumi za ocenu rentabilnostiinvesticionih projekata. Zajedniko svim

kriterumima je da: u svojoj sutini kvantitativno (brojano) mere

odnose izmeu

o e k i v a n i huinaka i

ulaganja i koriste podatke

i pokazatelje

koji su

formirani tokom

p r e t h o d n o

n a v e d e n i h

analiza, a pre

svega nansskeanalize.Prof. dr Blagoje Paunovi (Paunovi, 1994.)

navodi da postoje kriterumi koji ne uzimaju

u obzir vreme, odnosno vremensku vrednost

novca (statiki metodi) i oni koji respektuju

vremensku vrednost novca (dinamiki

metodi).Vremenska preferenca novca je veoma

znaajna a sa praktinog aspekta podrazumeva

princip da novac danas vredi vie nego sutra,bez obzira o kojoj se novanoj jedinici radi

(dinar, evro itd.).Mnogobrojni su razlozi koji potvruju

pomenuti princip da novac danas vredi vie

nego sutra. Od njih najbitni su sledei: inaca obezvreuje novac izgubljena zarada (novac na raspolaganju

danas znai mogunost dodatne zarade

kroz kamatu putem tednje i sl.)

psihologa imaoca novca (novac obezbeujeodreena zadovoljstva, pa je sasvim

prirodno da se zadovoljstvo, pa i novac,

vie vrednuje danas nego sutra).Stepeni poveanja korisnosti danas i

smanjenja korisnosti sutra mogu se izraziti u

procentima. Procenat smanjenja korisnosti u

nansskoj i aktuarskoj matematici se naziva

diskontnom stopom. Diskontna stopa po

pravilu odraava cenu kapitala iz kojeg se

projekat nasira. Pomou diskontne stope svevrednosti u budunosti (u ovom konkretnom

sluaju: prilivi i odlivi koje projekat odbacuje)svode se na sadanju vrednost odnosno na

realnu vrednost u vreme donoenja investicione

odluke.

Bez pretenze nabrajanja svih kriteruma

koji se koriste kod ocene investicionih projekata,

naredni pregled daje spisak najee korienih

kriteruma u praksi:

Statiki kriterumi su pokazatelji koji

ukazuju na neke znaajne odnose (raca)

rentabilnosti i ekasnosti projekta, ukupno

gledajui i ne uzimajui u obzir vremensku

dimenzu. Dinamiki kriterumi vode raunao vremenskoj dimenzi odnosno vremenskomrasporedu priliva, odliva, ulaganja, tj.

posmatraju rentabilnost projekta kroz vreme.

Eliminacioni kriterumi su osnovni kriterumi

rentabilnosti. Ukoliko oni nisu ispunjeni,projekat se odbacuje kao neprotabilan.

Funkcionalni kriterumi pokazuju odrivost

projekta sa stanovita likvidnosti, koecenta

iskorienosti kapaciteta i promene drugih

bitnih varabli koje utiu na analizu

rentabilnosti projekta (cene inputa i autputa i

drugo).

Eliminacioni kriterumi

rentabilnosti projekataNeto sadanja vrednost (Net Present Value- NPV)

Neto sadanja vrednost projekta mogla

bi se denisati kao vrednost neto novanog

toka u celom periodu projekta svedena putemdiskontovanja na sadanju vrednost. Dobenavrednost neto novanog priliva po sadanjoj

vrednosti govori koliko je projekat odbacio

nove vrednosti posle podmirenja kreditoraodnosno investicionih ulaganja.

Postoje dva naina za odreivanje neto

sadanje vrednosti projekta:1. Diskontovanje novanih priliva i novanih

odliva i utvrivanje njihove razlike odnosno

STATIKI KRITERUMI DINAMIKI KRITERUMI

Eliminacioni Funkcionalni

1. Uloena sredstva /Broj radnika

1. Neto sadanja vrednost 1. Likvidnost

2. Dobit / Ulaganja 2. Interna stopa povrata 2. Prag rentabilnosti

3. Prihodi / Rashodi 3. Period otplate 3. Osetljivost

4. Dobit / Prihodi 4. Indeks protabilnosti

5. Dobit / Broj radnika

Pregled kriteruma ocene investicionih projekata


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words, net cash inow serves as a base for theapplication of project eciency criteria.

Financial ow of the project is a review

including all cash inows and outows withinthe economic ow, but, in addition, also

including the cash inows and outows inrespect of project nance (borrowed credits, orissued debt securities, along with the interestsand repayments of the above mentioned,

according to the planned nance conditions).

Project Protability Criteria

Both in theory and in practice, there are

numerous criteria for the assessment of

investment projects protability. All thesecriteria have the following in common: In essence, they quantitatively (numerically)

measure relations between the expected

performance and investments; and They use data

and indicators

formed during

the above

m e n t i o n e d

analyses, rstand foremost

f i n a n c i a l

analysis.Prof. Blagoje

Paunovic, PhD

(Paunovic, 1994)

states that there arecriteria that do not take time, i.e. time value ofmoney into account (static methods), and those

that respect the time value of money (dynamicmethods).Time preference of money is very signicant,

and from the practical point of view, it impliesthat money is worth more today than it is

tomorrow, regardless of the currency unit we

are talking about (dinar, euro, etc.).The numerous reasons conrm the

mentioned principle of money being worth

more today than tomorrow. The most important

are the following: Ination devaluates money; Lost prot (money available today implies

the possibility of extra prot by means of

interest through savings, etc.); Psychological framework of a money owner

(money provides certain pleasures, thus it is

only natural for pleasure, and money, to behigher valued today than tomorrow).The levels of increasing usefulness today

and reducing usefulness tomorrow may be

expressed in percents. The percentage ofusefulness reduction is known as a discount

rate in nancial and actuarial mathematics.

Generally, the discount rate reects the price ofcapital from which the project is being nanced.

Using the discount rate, all future values (in this

concrete case: inows and outows generatedby the project) are brought to the present value,

i.e. the real value in the time of investment

decision-making.

Without aempting to list all the criteriaused in investment projects assessment, the

following review provides a list of the criteriamost frequently used in practice:

Static criteria are indicators pointing to

some signicant relations (ratios) of project

protability and eciency, taking things ingeneral, and disregarding the time dimension.Dynamic criteria take into account time

dimension, i.e. time schedule of inows,

outows, investments, or, in other words, viewproject protability through time. Eliminationcriteria are the basic protability criteria. If

they are not met, the project is dismissed as

non-protable. Functional criteria indicate theproject sustainability from the point of view of

liquidity, capacity usage ratio, and the changesin other key variables inuencing the project

protability analysis (input and output prices,etc.).

STATIC CRITERIA DYNAMIC CRITERIA

Elimination Functional

1. Invested funds /

Number of workers

1. Net Present Value 1. Liquidity

2. Prot / Investment 2. Internal Rate of Return2. Protability

Threshold

3. Revenues / Expenditures 3. Payback Period 3. Sensitivity

4. Prot / Revenues 4. Benet-Cost Ratio

5. Prot /Number of workers

Review of the Investment Projects Assessment Criteria


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sadanje vednosti neto novanog toka za

svaku godinu projekta, a zatim sabiranje

tako dobenih vrednosti kako bi se dobila

ukupna neto sadanja vrednost projekta.NPV = B(t)/(1+d)t - C(t)/(1+d)t

2. Utvrivanje razlike izmeu novanihpriliva i novanih odliva odnosno neto

novanog toka za svaku godinu, a zatim

njegovo diskontovanje kako bi se dobila

neto sadanja vrednost projekta.NPV = [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+d)t

gde je:NPV - neto sadanja vrednostB(t) - Novani priliv u godini t (korist)C(t) - Novani odliv u godini t (troak)

t - godina iz veka projektad - diskontna stopaJedan projekat je prihvatljiv pri datoj

diskontnoj stopi d ako diskontovani novani

prilivi prelaze sumu diskontovanih novanih

odliva, tako da je neto sadanja vrednost veaod nule. Kriterum odluivanja primenom NPV

metoda je sledei:Pri diskontnoj stopi d:Ako je NPV > 0, projekat se prihvata.

Ako je NPV < 0, projekat se odbacuje.Neto sadanja vrednost projekta se moe

prikazati i graki preko krive neto sadanje

vrednosti koja pokazuje odnos izmeu

neto sadanje vrednosti i diskontne stope.

Horizontalna osa prikazuje primenjenu

diskontnu stopu a vertikalna osa iznos neto

sadanje vrednosti.

Kao i drugi metodi ocene investicionih

projekata koji se zasnivaju na diskontovanjuprojektovanog novanog toka i neto sadanja

vrednost zavisi ne samo od tanosti projekcebudueg novanog toka ve i od primenjene

diskontne stope.

Interna stopa povrata (Internal Rate ofReturn - IRR)

Interna stopa povrata je ona diskontna

stopa koja sadanju vrednost neto novanog

toka projekta svodi na nulu. Po svojoj sadrini

interna stopa povrata pored rentabilnostiprojekta pokazuje i najveu kamatnu stopu nakredite koju projekat moe prihvatiti a da ne

ostvaruje gubitak.Interna stopa povrata je diskontna stopa pri

kojoj je:NPV = [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+r)t= 0

U ovom izrazu, r je diskontna stopa koja

svodi neto sadanju vrednost na nulu. Internastopa povrata projekta se izraunava metodom

pokuaja i greke. Pretpostavi se jednadiskontna stopa i na osnovu nje se izrauna

neto sadanja vrednost projekta. Ako se dobepozitivna vrednost, postupak se nastavlja takoto se diskontna stopa postepeno poveava i

opet izraunava neto sadanja vrednost sve

do momenta dok se ne dobe njena negativnaveliina. Kada se nau dve diskontne stope

im primenama se doba jednom pozitivna

a drugi put negativna neto sadanju vrednost,

to znai da je traena interna stopa povrataograniena sa donje i gornje strane sa ove dvestope. Njena vrednost se, na eljenu tanost,

izraunava procesom interpolace.Proces interpolace se moe prikazati

sledeom matematikom formulom:IRR = dp+ (dn-dp) * (NPVp/ (NPVp - NPVn))

gde je:IRR - interna stopa povratadp- diskontna stopa po kojoj je NPV > 0

dn- diskontna stopa po kojoj je NPV < 0NPV

n- iznos negativne NPV uz diskontnu

stopu dnNPV

p- iznos pozitivne NPV uz diskontnu

stopu dpPrema kriterumu IRR smatra se da je

projekat prihvatljiv ukoliko je interna stopapovrata jednaka ili vea od kamatne stope

na dugorone kredite. Ukoliko je interna

stopa manja od kamatne stope na kredite koje

projekat koristi, prinos na sopstveni kapital kojivlasnik ulae u projekat manji je od kamatne

stope na kredite, to bi bilo neprihvatljivo.Kriterum za odluivanje upotrebom interne

stope povrata je sledei:Pri diskontnoj stopi d,


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Project Protability EliminationCriteria

Net Present Value - NPVNet present value of the project could

be dened as the value of the net cash owduring the whole period of the project,calculated by discounting to the present

value. The calculated net cash ow value perpresent value indicates the extent to which

the project has generated the new values

aer honouring the creditors, i.e. aer the

investments.There are two ways to determine the net

present values of the project:

1. Discounting cash inows and cash outows,and determining the dierence between

them, i.e. the present value of the net cashow for each year of the project, and then

summing up the thus calculated values in

order to get the total net present value of the

project.NPV = B(t)/(1+d)t - C(t)/(1+d)t

2. Determining the dierence between the cash

inows and cash outows, i.e. the net cash

ow for each year, and then discounting itin order to get the net present value of theproject.

NPV = [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+d)t

With:NPV - Net Present ValueB(t) - Cash Inow in the Year t (benet)C(t) - Cash Outow in the Year t (cost)t - A Year from the Projects Lifetimed - Discount Rate

A project is acceptable at the given discountrate dif the discounted cash inows exceed thesum of the discounted cash outows, so that the

net present value is above zero. The deciding

criterion in the NPV method is the following:At the discount rate d:If NPV > 0, the project is accepted.If NPV < 0, the project is rejected.Net present value may also be represented

graphically at the net present value curve,

showing the ratio between net present valueand discount rate. The horizontal axis shows

the applied discount rate and the vertical axisthe net present value amount.

Just like the other investment project

assessment methods based on the projected

cash ow discount, the net present value

depends not only on the accuracy of the futurecash ow projection, but also on the applied

discount rate.

Internal Rate of Return - IRRInternal rate of return is the discount rate

that reduces the present value of the net projectcash ow to zero. When it comes to its content,apart from project protability, internal rate ofreturn also indicates the largest interest rate

on credits that the project may accept withoutyielding a loss.

Internal rate of return is a discount rate atwhich:

NPV = [B(t) - C(t)] / (1+r)t= 0In this formula, r is the discount rate

reducing the net present value to zero. Internalrate of return of the project is calculated by

the application of trial and error method. A

discount rate is assumed, and on its basis the

net present value of the project calculated. If

the result is a positive value, the procedure is

continued by gradually increasing the discountrate and by repeatedly calculating the net

present value till the moment when its value

becomes negative. When the two discount

rates are found whose application yields rst

the positive and then the negative net presentvalue, this means that the targeted internal rateof return is limited, having these two rates as its

cap and oor. Its precise value is calculated byprocess of interpolation.

The process of interpolation can berepresented by the following mathematic

formula:IRR = dp+ (dn-dp) * (NPVp/ (NPVp - NPVn))

With:IRR - Internal Rate of Return


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Ako je IRR > d, projekat se prihvata.Ako je IRR < d, projekat se odbacuje.Interna stopa povrata ima odreene

karakteristike zbog kojih je treba paljivo

primenjivati pri donoenju odluka. Prvo,

interna stopa povrata moe biti negativna. Uovom sluaju, nediskontovani novani prilivi

od projekta su manji od nediskontovanih

novanih odliva. Oigledno je da ovakve

projekte treba odbaciti. Drugo, postoje

odreene situace u kojima nema jedinstvene

interne stope povrata za projekat, odnosno

postoji vie internih stopa povrata. Drugim

reima, kriva neto sadanje vrednosti moe

biti neregularna i presecati horizontalnu osu

diskontne stope na vie mesta.

Indeks protabilnosti (Benet-Cost RatioBCR)

Indeks protabilnosti ili korist-troak

racio (BCR) investicionog projekta je sadanja

vrednost budueg novanog priliva prema

sadanjoj vrednosti budueg novanog odlivainvesticionog projekta. Drugim reima,

diskontovane koristi se stavljaju u odnos sa

diskontovanim trokovima.BCR = B(t)/(1+d)t / C(t)/(1+d)t

gde je:d - diskontna stopa,t - godina projektaB(t) i C(t) - ukupne koristi (novani prilivi) i

ukupni trokovi (novani odlivi) u godini t.

Sve dok je indeks protabilnosti jednak ilivei od 1, investicioni projekat je prihvatljiv.

Za svaki projekat, metod neto sadanje

vrednosti i indeks protabilnosti daju isti

zakljuak u vezi sa prihvatljivou projekta.

Meutim, ako moramo da odluujemo o

meusobno iskljuivim projektima, mera netosadanje vrednosti je bolja zato to izraava

u apsolutnim iznosima oekivani ekonomski

doprinos projekta, dok indeks protabilnosti

izraava samo relativnu protabilnost.

BCR projekta se moe prikazati i graki,putem BCR line.

Za niz vrednosti diskontnih stopa, BCR

e biti vee od 1, a samim tim projekat e

biti prihvatljiv. Za vee vrednosti diskontnihstopa BCR e biti manji od jedan, i projekate biti odbaen. Oigledno je da odluka da lie projekat biti prihvaen zavisi od vrednosti

diskontne stope koja e se primeniti priodluivanju.

Ekvivalentnost kriteruma za ocenjivanjeekasnosti projekataSva tri kriteruma za ocenu ekasnosti

projekata koji se baziraju na diskontovanju

novanih tokova projekta daju istu ocenu

investice. Kada je BCR vei od jedan pri

odreenoj diskontnoj stopi, NPV e biti vea od

nule, a IRR e biti vei od diskontne stope. Kadaje BCR manji od jedan pri odreenoj diskontnoj

stopi, NPV e biti manja od nule a IRR e bitimanja od diskontne stope.

Za datu diskontnu stopu d,Ako je BCR > 1, onda je NPV > 0 i IRR > d,

projekat se prihvata.Ako je BCR < 1, onda je NPV < 0 i IRR < d,

projekat se odbacuje.Iako sve tri metode daju isti rezultat kad

se sudi o prihvatljivosti projekta, svaka imasvoje specinosti. BCR ne govori o apsolutnojvrednosti neto novanog priliva koji projekat

odbacuje. IRR je slian kriterum i govori o

kvalitetu projekta u relativnom smislu. NPV

oigledno ima prednost jer daje apsolutni


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dp- Discount Rate at which NPV > 0dn- Discount Rate at which NPV < 0NPVn- Amount of the Negative NPV with

the Discount Rate dnNPV

p- Amount of the Positive NPV with the

Discount Rate dpAccording to the IRR criteria, the project isconsidered to be acceptable if the internal rateof return is equal to or higher than the interestrate on long-term credits. If the internal rate islower than the interest rate on credits used bythe project, the return on equity invested by the

owner into the project is lower than the interestrate on credits, which would be unacceptable.

The criterion for decision-making by using

the internal rate of return is as follows:At the discount rate d,If the IRR > d, the project is acceptable.If the IRR < d, the project is rejected.The internal rate of return bears the certain

characteristics because of which it should

be applied carefully in the decision-making

process. First of all, the internal rate of returnmay be negative. In such case, the non-

discounted cash inows from the project are

lower than the non-discounted cash outows.Obviously, such projects are to be rejected.

Secondly, there are certain situations in which

there is no unied internal rate of return forthe project, i.e. there are several internal rates

of return. In other words, the net present

value curve may be irregular, intersecting

with the horizontal axis in several points.

Benet-Cost Ratio - BCRThe benet-cost ratio (BCR) of the

investment project is the present value of the

future cash inow against the present value

of the future cash outow of the investment

project. In other words, discounted benets

are divided by discounted costs.BCR = B(t)/(1+d)t/ C(t)/(1+d)t

With:d - Discount Rate

t - Year of the ProjectB(t) and C(t) - Total benets (Cash Inows)and Total Costs (Cash Outows) in the Year t.

As long as the benet-cost ratio is equal

to or higher than 1, the investment project is

acceptable. For each project, the net present

value method and the benet-cost ratio

provide the same conclusion in respect of the

projects acceptability. However, if we have

to make a decision on the mutually exclusive

projects, the net present value method is beer,because it expresses the expected contributionof the project in absolute amounts, whereas thebenet-cost ratio expresses only the relative

protability.The BCR of the project may also be

represented graphically, by means of the BCRline.

For a set of discount rates values, the BCRwill be higher than 1, thus the project will

be acceptable. For the higher discount ratesvalues, the BCR will be lower than 1, and

the project will be rejected. Obviously, the

decision on whether the project gets accepted

depends on the value of the discount rate tobe applied in the decision-making process.

Equivalence of the Project Eciency

Assessment CriteriaAll three criteria for the project eciency

assessment based on discounting the projectscash ows provide the same investment

assessment. When the BCR is higher than 1

at a certain discount rate, the NPV will be


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iznos za koji e rma ili njen vlasnik poveativrednost ako se projekat prihvati.

Sledei primer prikazuje primenu sva

tri metoda ocene na novane tokove dva

alternativna investiciona projekta.

Primer: Ocena atraktivnosti dva projekta

primenom metoda NPV, BCR, IRR(Curry and

Weiss, 1993.)

Pretpostavimo da sledea tabela prikazuje

projektovane novane tokove dva investicionapredloga diskontovana istom stopom od 8%.

Kao to se vidi u tabeli, projekat A je bolji

po sva tri kriteruma ocenjivanja. Projekat B

produkuje negativnu neto sadanju vrednost,

ima korist-troak racio manji od jedan i internu

stopu povrata niu od diskontne stope, toznai da je neprihvatljiv i da treba prihvatiti

projekat A.

Period otplate (Payback Period)Period otplate ulaganja odreuje broj godina

potreban da se povrati poetno ulaganje u

projekat. To je racio poetnog ksnog ulaganjai godinjih novanih priliva. Moe se prikazatisledeom formulom:

Period otplate = Poetno ulaganje / Godinjinovani prilivAko je period otplate manji od maksimalno

prihvatljivog, projekat se prihvata, i obrnuto.Glavni nedostatak metoda perioda otplate

ulaganja je to to on ne uzima u obzir novane

prilive posle perioda otplate, pa ne moe sluiti

kao mera protabilnosti. Drugi nedostatak

ovog metoda je to to ne uzima u obzir vremenovanog priliva u toku perioda otplate, negouzima u obzir samo period otplate kao celinu.

Iz tog razloga se esto rauna diskontovaniperiod otplate, gde se poetno ulaganje

deli sa diskontovanim godinjim novanim

prilivima.

Funkcionalni kriterumirentabilnosti projekta (odrivostprojekta)

Funkcionalni kriterumi spadaju udinamike kriterume jer na izvestan nain

uzimaju u obzir vremensku dimenzu koristi

i trokova projekta. Ovim kriterumima se

ocenjuje odrivost odnosno funkcionalnost

projekta sa stanovita likvidnosti i promena

znaajnih pretpostavki uspene realizace

projekta.Likvidnost projekta podrazumeva

sposobnost da se u svakom momentu (godini)

podmire dinarske i devizne obaveze, i to kako uperiodu izgradnje tako i u periodu eksploatace

projekta.Za svrhu utvrivanja likvidnosti projekta

izrauje se nansski tok projekta.Utvrivanje likvidnosti projekta ima svrhe

Projekat A Projekat B

Sadanjavrednost

d = 8%

Godine Sadanjavrednost

d = 8%

Godine

0 1 2-6 7 0 1 2-6 7Investicionitrokovi

1.000 400

Obrtnasredstva 200 (200) 40 (40)

Materal 400 500 500 30 30 30 30

Energa 80 100 100 20 20 20 20

Plate 90 100 100 200 200 200 200

Ukupnitrokovi

4.607 1.200 570 700 500 1.968 690 250 250 210

Prihodi 5.021 800 1.000 1.000 1.955 315 315 315 315BCR 1,090 0,993

NPV 414 (1200) 230 300 500 (13) (375) 65 65 105

IRR (%) 16,6 7,0


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above zero, and the IRR will be higher than

the discount rate. When the BCR is lower than1 at a certain discount rate, the NPV will be

below zero, and the IRR will be lower than thediscount rate.

For the set discount rate d,If the BCR > 1, then the NPV > 0, and the IRR> d, the project is accepted.

If the BCR < 1, then the NPV < 0, and the IRR

< d, the project is rejected.Although all three methods provide the

same result when it comes to judging the

projects acceptability, each of these methods

has its own specicities. The BCR does not dealwith the absolute value of the net cash inow

generated by the project. The IRR is a similarcriterion, dealing with the projects quality in

relative terms. The NPV obviously has the

advantage of providing the absolute amount for

which the company or its owner will increasethe value in case the project is accepted.

The following example illustrates the

application of all three assessment methods

to the cash ows of two alternative investmentprojects.

Example: The assessment of aractiveness

of the two projects by applying the methods of

NPV, BCR, IRR (Curry and Weiss, 1993)

Let us assume that the following table shows

the projected cash ows of the two investmentproposals with the same 8% discount rate.

As can be seen from the table, the project A is

beer according to all three assessment criteria.

The project B generates negative net present

value, has the benet-cost ratio below 1 and

internal rate of return lower than the discount

rate, which means that it is unacceptable andthat Project A should be accepted.

Payback PeriodThe investment payback period determines

the number of years necessary for the initial

investment in the project to be returned. It

represents the ratio between the initial xed

investment and the annual cash inows. It canbe represented by the following formula:

Payback Period = Initial Investment / AnnualCash InowIf the payback period is shorter than

the maximum acceptable one, the project is

accepted, and vice versa.The major shortcoming of the investment

payback period method is that it does not

take into account the cash inows aer the

payback period, which is why it cannot be

used for protability assessment. The second

drawback of this method is that it does not takeinto account the time of the cash inow duringthe payback period, but considers the paybackperiod only as a whole. Due to this reason,

the discounted payback period is frequently

calculated, where the initial investment is

divided by the discounted annual cash inows.

Project A Project B

Present

valued = 8%

Years Present

valued = 8%

Years

0 1 2-6 7 0 1 2-6 7

InvestmentCosts

1.000 400

WorkingCapital 200 (200) 40 (40)

Materials 400 500 500 30 30 30 30

Energy 80 100 100 20 20 20 20

Wages 90 100 100 200 200 200 200

Total Costs 4.607 1.200 570 700 500 1.968 690 250 250 210

Revenues 5.021 800 1.000 1.000 1.955 315 315 315 315BCR 1,090 0,993

NPV 414 (1200) 230 300 500 (13) (375) 65 65 105

IRR (%) 16,6 7,0


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ukoliko projekat ispunjava sve eliminacione

kriterume. Potrebno je da projekat

kumulativno ili u najveem broju godina

obezbeuje dinarsku i deviznu likvidnost.Funkcionalna odrivost projekta se meri

i analizom praga rentabilnosti odnosnoutvrivanjem breakeven point-a, kao i

analizom osetljivosti projekta na promene

kljunih varabli. Prag rentabiliteta govori

o minimalnoj iskorienosti kapaciteta pri

kojoj projekat postaje rentabilan. Kako

svaki projekat ima ksne i varabilne

trokove tokom izgradnje i tokom perioda

eksploatace, projekat postaje isplativ tek

kada iskorienost kapaciteta (npr. obim

proizvodnje ili prodaje) dostigne takav nivo dasu prihodima od projekta pokriveni svi ksni

rashodi (ukljuujui i rashode nansiranja).

Prag rentabiliteta se moe prikazati formulomi graki.

BE = F / (P - V),gde je:BE - prag rentabiliteta (minimalno potrebna

popunjenost kapaciteta odnosno koliina

autputa)F - ksni rashodiP - cena jedinice autputaV - varabilni rashodi po jedinici autputa

Analiza osetljivosti projekta podrazumevapromenu kljunih varabli i ocenu njihovog

uticaja na rentabilnost projekta. Kljune

varable su iskorienost kapaciteta odnosno

broj jedinica autputa, cenu jedinice autputa,

cenu jedinice inputa, nivo ksnih rashoda

i druge. Sledea tabela prikazuje analizu

osetljivosti projekta iz gore predstavljenog

primera:

Scenario NPV IRR

1 Rast cene osnovnog inputa za 10% smanjenje za 251 na 163 smanjenje za 5,1 p.p. na 11,5%

2 Pad cene autputa za 10% smanjenje za 502 na -88 smanjenje za 10,6 p.p. na 6,0%3 Rast rizika (diskontna stopa = 10%) smanjenje za 114 na 300 nepromenjeno: 16,6%

4 Poveanje ksnih rashoda za 200 smanjenje za 200 na 214 smanjenje za 4,6 p.p. na 12,0%


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Project Protability FunctionalCriteria (project sustainability)

Functional criteria belong to the group of

dynamic criteria since, in a way, they take into

account the time dimension of the projectscosts and benets. These criteria estimate the

sustainability or functionality of the project,

from the point of view of liquidity and changesin the signicant assumptions of the successfulproject realization.

The project liquidity implies the capabilityto honour the dinar and foreign exchange

liabilities in each moment (year), both in the

period of construction and in the period of

project exploitation.For the purpose of determining the project

liquidity the nancial ow of the project is

prepared.Determination of project liquidity fullls

its purpose if the project meets all elimination

criteria. The project is required to provide

dinar and FX liquidity cumulatively or in

most of the years.Functional sustainability of the project is

also measured by the protability thresholdanalysis, i.e. by determining the breakeven

point, along with the analysis of the projects

sensitivity to the changes in key variables.

Protability threshold indicates the minimumcapacity usage at which the project becomes

protable. Given that each project has the

xed and variable costs during the construction

and exploitation periods, the project becomes

protable only when the capacity usage (for

instance, the volume of production and sales)reaches the level at which the project revenuescover all xed expenditures (including the

nance expenditures). Protability threshold

may be represented by a formula and on achart.

BE = F / (P - V),With:BE - Protability Threshold (minimum

required capacity usage, i.e. amount of

output)F - Fixed ExpendituresP - Output Unit PriceV - Variable Expenditures per Output Unit

Project sensitivity analysis implies the

change in the key variables and the assessmentof their inuence on the projects protability.The key variables are the capacity usage, i.e. the

number of output units, output unit price, input

unit price, level of xed expenditures, etc. Thefollowing table shows the project sensitivity

analysis from the above cited example:

Scenario NPV IRR

1 Increase in basic input price by 10% Reduction by 251 to 163 Reduction by 5,1 p.p. to 11,5%

2 Decrease in output price by 10% Reduction by 502 to -88 Reduction by 10,6 p.p. 6,0%

3 Risk increase (discount rate = 10%) Reduction by 114 to 300 Unchanged: 16,6%

4 Increase in xed expenditures by 200 Reduction by 200 to 214 Reduction by 4,6 p.p. to 12,0%


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Iz tabele se jasno vidi da je projekat

nerentabilan u sluaju realizace scenara 2,

odnosno pada cene autputa za 10%. Ukoliko

se proceni da je verovatnoa ostvarenja

ovakvog scenara prevelika, projekat je

potrebno odbaciti. U tabeli je prikazan samouticaj razliitih scenara na dva eliminaciona

kriteruma ocene projekata, NPV i IRR. U

praksi je mogua (pa ak i poeljna) upotrebai ostalih kriteruma ocene projekata. Takoe

predstavljeni scenari su jednofaktorski,

odnosno pretpostavljaju promene samo jedne

varable pri nepromenjenim vrednostima

drugih varabli. U praksi se najee rade

viefaktorski scenari, gde se u jednom

scenaru pretpostavlja promena nekolikovarabli istovremeno, i zatim meri uticaj datogscenaria na protabilnost projekta.

Analiza rizika projektnognansiranja

Kreditori nastoje da izbegnu opasnosti

dogaaja koji mogu imati negativan uticaj

na nansske performanse projekta. Ovde

se pre svega misli na rizik nezavretkaprojekta na vreme, u okviru projektovanog

budeta ili nezavretka projekta uopte, rizik

neiskorienosti kapaciteta projekta u fazi

ekonomske eksploatace, rizik nedovoljnih

prihoda za otplatu kredita i rizik skraivanja

ekonomskog veka projekta.Sve ove i druge rizike je potrebno

identikovati, proceniti mogunost njihovog

umanjenja, kvantikovati ih i ugraditi u cenu

izvora nansiranja. Identikovanje rizikapodrazumeva neku vrstu stude izvodljivosti

projekta. Kreditori esto angauju spoljne

saradnike i strunjake u cilju nezavisne

procene izvodljivosti projekta. U okviru studeizvodljivosti se radi ocena objektivnosti procene

rashoda projekta i neto novanih priliva.

Procenjuje se sposobnost projekta da odbacujenovane prilive adekvatne za otplatu izvora

nansiranja. Radi se scenario analiza uticaja

promene makroekonomskih varabli kao tosu inaca, rast bruto domaeg proizvoda,

kamatne stope, devizni kursevi, cene inputa i

autputa.Identikovanim rizicima je potrebno

upravljati kako bi se umanjila verovatnoa

realizace rizika i ublaile posledice ovakvog

dogaaja. S obzirom da su kreditori od

poetka pa do kraja projekta neposredni

uesnici u projektu i u sluaju propasti dunika

preuzimaju projekat, neophodno je aktivno i

kvalitetno praenje projekta. Ovo se postieintenzivnim izvetavanjem kreditora od stranedunika i kontrolom rauna preko kojih se

projekat nansira. Ovde esto dolazi do sukoba

interesa dunika i kreditora. Dunik tei veojslobodi odluivanja i eksibilnosti raspolaganja

sredstvima dok kreditor tei veoj kontroli i

drugim mehanizmima upravljanja rizicima

projekta.Svaki projekat je na izvestan nain izloen

razliitim tipovima rizika. Svakako jedan odnajznaajnih rizika jeste rizik nezavretka

projekta. Projekat moe kasniti, imati vee

rashode od projektovanih ili u potpunosti

propasti iz razliitih razloga (npr. tehniki

razlozi, problemi sa ljudskim resursima,

nepredviene tekoe u graevinskim

radovima itd.). Ovo dovodi do kanjenja i

poveanih trokova, to ugroava otplatu izvora

nansiranja i dovodi do akumuliranja dugova i

neplaenih kamata. Takoe, ovo moe ugrozitii prodaju autputa ili nabavku inputa.Kreditori ublaavaju rizik nezavretka

ili kanjenja u zavretku projekta tako to

ugovaraju inidbene garance od drugih

banaka ili sponzora projekta, zahtevaju

znaajno nanssko uee dunika u

nansiranju projekta, zahtevaju ugovaranje

ksnih cena i ksnog vremena zavretka

projekta, angaovanje proverenih izvoaa

radova i angaovanje spoljnih saradnika zapraenje i procenu statusa projekta odnosno

progresa u izvoenju radova.Druga znaajna vrsta rizika koja se esto

javlja kod projekata jeste rizik nedostatka

inputa. Na primer nedovoljan broj putnika nanekoj saobraajnoj deonici, nedovoljna koliina

rude u proizvodnji sirovina, nedovoljna koliina

poljoprivrednih proizvoda u proizvodnji

hrane itd. Ovakvi rizici se ublaavaju tako to

se izrauju stude i istraivanja dovoljnostiinputa, zahteva ugovaranje dugoronih

ugovora o nabavci inputa i ugovaranje garanca

o minimalnoj koliini inputa.U fazi ekploatace odnosno ekonomskog

veka projekta javljaju se takozvani operativni


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The table clearly shows that the project is

non-protable in the case of Scenario 2, i.e. thedrop in the output price by 10%. If it is assessed

that the probability of such a scenario is high,the project has to be abandoned. The table only

shows the inuence of dierent scenarios onthe two project assessment elimination criteria,NPV and IRR. In practice, it is possible (even

recommendable) to use the rest of the project

assessment criteria. Also, the table shows

only the one-factor scenarios, i.e. the ones thatassume a change in only one variable whereasthe values of other variables remain unaltered.The scenarios most oen found in practice arethe multi-factor scenarios, where within one

scenario the concurrent changes in severalvariables are assumed, and then the inuenceof such scenario on the project protability

measured.

Project Finance Risk Analysis

Creditors tend to avoid the dangerous

events that may have an adverse eect on

the nancial performance of the project. This

primarily refers to the risk related to the projectnot being nished on time, within the projected

budget, or to the project not being nished atall, then to the risk of the projects capacity non-

usage in the economic exploitation period, therisk of the insucient revenues for the credit

repayment, and the risk of shortening the

economic lifetime of the project.It is necessary to identify all these and other

risks, estimate the possibility of their mitigation,

quantify and integrate them into the nancesources price. Identication of risk implies

some kind of the projects feasibility study.

The creditors oen hire external assistants andexperts to conduct an independent assessmentof the projects feasibility. The feasibility studyestimates whether the projects expenditures

and net cash inows are assessed objectively.

What is also assessed is the projects capabilityto generate the cash ows adequate for

repayment of the nance sources. A scenarioanalysis is conducted with a view to analyzingthe inuences of the changes in macroeconomic

variables, such as ination, growth of the GDP,interest rates, foreign exchange rates, input and

output prices.

The identied risks need to be managed

in order to reduce the possibility of risks

manifestation, and mitigate the consequences

of such an event. Given that from the beginning

to the end of the project, the creditors are its

direct participants, who, in case the debtorgoes bankrupt, take over the project, it is

necessary to monitor the project in an active

and high-quality manner. This can be achievedby intensive reporting to the creditors by

the debtor, and by supervision of accounts

through which the project is being nanced.

This is where most frequently the conict of

interests occurs between the debtor and the

creditor. The debtor wants a wider freedom

of choice and exibility related to the fundsdisposal, whereas the creditor wants stricter

control and other mechanisms of the projects

risks management.Each project is, in a way, exposed to the

dierent types of risks. One of the, certainly,

most signicant risks is the risk of the projectnot being nished. The project may be delayed,

may have higher expenditures than projected,or may completely fail due to the various

reasons (e.g. technical reasons, human resourcesproblems, unexpected diculties related to

construction work, etc.). All this leads to delayand increased costs, which, in turn, jeopardizes

repayment of the nance sources, and results

in accumulation of debts and unpaid interests.This may also jeopardize the sales of output orthe procurement of input.

The creditors mitigate the risk of

failure or delay of the project by obtaining

performance guarantees from other banks orprojects sponsors, by demanding signicant

participation of debtors in the project nance,by demanding xed prices and xed time for

the project completion, by hiring reputable

construction operators, and external assistantsto monitor and assess the status of the project,i.e. the progress achieved in construction

work.The second signicant type of risk oen

manifested in projects is the risk related tothe lack of input. For instance, the insucientnumber of commuters on a certain road, the

insucient amount of ore in the production

of raw materials, the insucient amount of

agricultural products in food production,


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rizici. Ovo su rizici koji nepovoljno utiu na

novane prilive od projekta kroz poveanje

operativnih rashoda ili umanjenje kapaciteta

projekta za generisanje dovoljnog kvantiteta

ili kvaliteta autputa. Primeri su nedostatak

iskustva i operativnih resursa, operativnaneekasnost, nedostatak inputa i obuene radne

snage. Ova vrsta rizika se ublaava tako to sezahteva da projektom upravljaju kredibilne i

nansski stabilne kompane ili pojedinci.Takoe bitan projektni rizik jeste utrivost

autputa projekta. Rizik utrivosti je rizik

da se za autput projekta nee nai kupci po

ceni adekvatnoj za obezbeivanje dovoljnih

novanih priliva za otplatu izvora nansiranja.

Najbolja mera za ublaavanje ovog rizika je radza poznatog kupca odnosno prodaja autputa

unapred.Znaajan projektni rizik je i kreditni rizik.

Kreditnom riziku su pre svega izloeni sponzori

projekta odnosno sami dunici. Pitanje je da

li oni imaju dovoljne resurse za zavretak

i uspenu ekploatacu projekta u sluaju

neoekivanih problema. Kreditori zato ulaze uprojektno nansiranje samo ukoliko su uvereni

da dunik ili sponzor projekta imaju potrebneljudske i tehnike resurse, iskustvo u slinim

projektima i ukoliko su nansski snani.Tehniki rizik je rizik potekoa u izgradnji

ili funkionisanju projektovanog objekta ili

opreme. Kreditori obino preferiraju proverene

tehnologe u odnosu na nove tehnologe.

esto se angauju spoljni saradnici i strunjaciza ocenu tehnologe koja e se primeniti u

projektu. Ponekad se zahteva i izdvajanje

jednog dela novanih priliva od projekta naposeban namenski raun koji e sluiti za

pokrivanje buduih trokova odravanja.Projektno nansiranje moe biti izloeno

deviznom i kamatnom riziku. Devalvaca valute

u kojoj je odobren kredit moe poveati trokove

nansiranja i izgradnje ukoliko se znaajan deo

inputa nabavlja iz uvoza. Devalvaca valuta

u kojima se ostvaruju prihodi moe takoe

izazvati neoekivane probleme u ostvarivanju

adekvatnih novanih priliva od projekta. Kadase ugovara varabilna kamatna stopa, rashodinansiranja i novani odlivi po tom osnovu

mogu biti znaajno vei od oekivanih u sluaju

rasta referentnih kamatnih stopa na tritu. Ovi

rizici se ublaavaju tako to se usklauju valute

ugovora nabavke i ugovora prodaje koliko godje to mogue. Takoe, ugovor o projektnom

nansiranju je najbolje ugovarati u valuti u kojoj

e se ostvarivati najvei deo prihoda. Mogua je

i zatita od ove vrste rizika pomou nansskih

derivata odnosno hedingom.Regulatorni rizik je rizik nedobanjatehnike ili upotrebne dozvole za izgraeni

objekat odnosno opremu, ili rizik znaajne

promene u porezima i taksama, premama

obaveznog osiguranja, akcizama, ili rigidnim

regulatornim standardima po pitanju tehnikeispravnosti, kvaliteta itd. Ovakvi rizici se

umanjuju pribavljanjem pravnih miljenja po

pitanju usaglaenosti sa regulativom.

Politiki rizik je rizik od politike ilinansske nestabilnosti kao to su trajkovi,

suspendovanje slobodnog kretanja kapitala,

ekpropraca, nacionalizaca.Rizik vie sile je rizik da e via sila i

neoekivani dogaaj privremeno ili trajno

spreiti realizacu projekta. Primer moe biti

poplava, poar, rat itd.Kao to je reeno, donoenje ocene o

rentabilnosti projekta u velikoj meri zavisi

od pravilnog utvrivanja diskontne stope(cene kapitala) projekta. Veina metoda oceneinvesticionih projekata koristi diskontnu

stopu kao vaan faktor u donoenju ocene o

rentabilnosti. Kod NPV metode, BCR metode,metode diskontovanog perioda otplate,

diskontna stopa se koristi prilikom svoenja

oekivanih novanih tokova projekta na

sadanju vrednost. Kod IRR metode, diskontna

stopa se primenjuje kao referentna vrednost (tzv.

hurdle rate), pa se na osnovu poreenja internestope prinosa i diskontne stope projekta donosi

odluka o rentabilnosti projekta. Svi pomenuti

i mnogi drugi rizici od kojih zavisi uspena

realizaca projekta odnosno oekivani novanitokovi (prinosi) koje projekat treba da odbaci,moraju biti ugraeni u potrebnu cenu kapitalaodnosno diskontnu stopu. Postoji mnogo naina

za utvrivanje adekvatne diskontne stope

nekog projekta, ali njihovo detaljno elaboriranje

pravazilazi obim ovog rada. Ukratko, meupopularne naine utvrivanja diskontne stopeprojekta su CAPM model, model zidanja

diskontne stope, model relativnog vrednovanja.

CAPM model koristi trine informace o

nivou bezrizinih stopa prinosa (kamatna


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stopa na dravne zapise), prosenih trinih

stopa prinosa i nivou osetljivosti (rizinosti)

projekta u odnosu na promene prosenih

trinih stopa prinosa na kapital. Model je

teko primenjiv u zemljama sa relativno

nerazvenim i nelikvidnim tritima kapitala iakca. Model zidanja utvruje diskontnu stopuprojekta tako to na bezrizinu stopu prinosa

zida odnosno dodaje subjektivno procenjenu

potrebnu cenu kapitala za razliite vrste rizikakoje ugroavaju uspenu realizacu projekta.

Postoje odreene tablice sa denisanim rizicima

i unapred odreenim skalama (ocenama)

tako da se na neki nain povea objektivnost

procene diskontne stope i standardizuje

nain razmiljanja radi uporedivosti dva ilivie projekata. Model relativnog vrednovanja

utvruje adekvatnu diskontnu stopu tako to se

na tritu pronalaze ve zapoeti ili realizovaniprojekti slinog tipa i nivoa rizika i onda se naosnovu zahtevanih stopa prinosa (kamatnih

stopa) za takve projekte utvruje potrebna

diskontna stopa za novi projekat.

Zakljuak

Svako projektno nansiranje je sluaj za sebe

odnosno ima neto po emu se razlikuje od

drugih projekata. Meutim, dobro poznavanje

tehnika za ocenu rentabilnosti projekata iiskustvo i poznavanje naina identikovanja ikvantikovanja rizika kojima se kreditori izlau

u projektnom nansiranju sigurno znaajno

doprinose uspenoj selekci projekata koji

e biti nansirani i uslova pod kojim e

biti nansirani. Svi uesnici u projektnom

nansiranju moraju biti veoma oprezni u

analizi rizika i rentabilnosti projekta kako bi seprojekat na kraju zavrio uspeno i generisao

vee koristi od ulaganja.

Literatura / References

1. Blagoje Paunovi - Investicione odluke

preduzea u uslovima grupnog upravljanja,

Beograd 1994.2. Dragomir Vojni - Investice i ekonomski

razvoj, Ekonomski institut Zagreb, 1970.3. Dubravko Bendekovi i grupa autora

Prirunik za primenu Zajednike

metodologe za ocenjivanje drutvene

i ekonomske opravdanosti investica i

ekasnosti investiranja u SRJ, Udruenje

banaka Jugoslave, 1988.4. Steve Curry and John Weiss - Project

Analysis in Developing Counties, The

MacMillan Press Ltd, 1993.

5. James C. Van Horne- Fundamentals ofFinansial Management, Prentice-Hall Inc.

New Jersey, 1974.6. Aswath Damodaran - Measuring

Investment Returns, Stern School of

Business


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called hurdle rate), the decision on projects

protability being made on the basis of

comparison between the internal rate of returnand the projects discount rate. All the above-

mentioned and many other risks on which the

successful implementation of the project, i.e.the expected cash ows (revenues) generated

by the project depend, must be integrated intothe required price of capital, and the discountrate. There are many ways to determine the

adequate discount rate of a project, but their

detailed elaboration exceeds the scope of this

paper. In short, some of the popular ways of

determining the projects discount rate are

the CAPM model, the discount rate build-

up model, the relative valuation model. TheCAPM model uses market information on thelevel of risk-free rates of return (interest rate

on treasury bills), the average market rates ofreturn, and the level of sensitivity (risk) of theproject in relation to the changes in average

market rates of return on capital. This model

is dicult to apply in the countries with the

relatively undeveloped and illiquid capital and

shares markets. The build-up model determines

the projects discount rate by building up,i.e. adding the subjectively estimated, requiredprice of capital for dierent types of risk

jeopardizing the successful implementation ofthe project, to the risk-free rate of return. Thereare certain matrices containing already denedrisks and scales (assessments) set in advance,

so that, in a way, the objectivity of discount

rate assessment would be increased and the

manner of thinking standardized, with a viewto enabling comparability between the two ormore projects. The model of relative valuation

determines the adequate discount rate bynding the already launched or implemented

projects of a similar type and risk level at the

market, and, on the basis of the required ratesof return (interest rates) for such projects,

determining the required discount rate for thenew project.

Conclusion

Each case of project nance is a case foritself, i.e. it has something to dierentiate it

from the other projects. However, sucient

knowledge of the techniques for the project

protability assessment, and the experience inand knowledge of the ways of identifying andquantifying the risks the creditors are exposedto in project nance certainly contribute

signicantly to the more successful selection

of projects that will be nanced, and the

conditions under which they will be nanced.All participants in project nance must be verycautious in their risk and project protability

analysis, so that, at the end, the project wouldbe successfully completed and could generatebenets larger than the investments.

neto segasna vrednost 2009-stojanovski

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