Networked ExponentialsAchieving More In A Hyperconnected World

David Orban @davidorban, @dotsub

@singularityu, @netsocproj

Themes

Unexpected Consequences

Unmanageable Complexity

Unprecedented Value

1. Context 2. Resources 3. Principles 4. Conclusions

0. Intro To 2x

4

CALL TO ACTION

How would you leverage technology for social impact?

Environment Food Energy Water Security Poverty Education Global Health Space

5

SU MODEL

10^9+ IMPACT

BILLIONS OF LIVES

6

OUR EXPONENTIAL TECHNOLOGIES

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE & ROBOTICS BIOTECHNOLOGY

NANOTECHNOLOGY & DIGITAL FABRICATION

NETWORKS & COMPUTING SYSTEMS

7

SPEED, EFFICIENCY, COST-EFFECTIVENESS, POWER

COMPUTING IS ACCELERATING TECHNOLOGY

Moores Law: Price performance doubles every 18 months. Applies to all information technology.

Integrated Circuit Transistor Vacuum Tube Relay Electromechanical

1900 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2000 08 10

10-10

10-5

100

105

1010

1015

Perf

orm

ance

(Cal

c./s

econ

d pe

r $1

000)

Time

8

4DS OF EXPONENTIALS

DECEPTIVE TO

DISRUPTIVE

D I G I T I Z E D E M A T E R I A L I Z E D E M O N E T I Z E D E M O C R A T I Z E

Disruptive Stress /Opportunity

..., 0.0625, 0.1250, 0.5000, 1, ...

2000: First Human Genome at $3B

..., 1, 2, 4, 8, 16, 32, 64, 128

2014: Human Genome at $2K

2020: Human Genome at 2c?

1. Context

William GibsonThe future is already here. It is just not evenly distributed yet

Acceleration

Fal

flickr John Wilson

Coevolution

Pyramids

archer10

Dreams

Feudalism

dicktay2000

Industrial Age

sludgeulper

Infrastructure

Network Age

jurvetson

Superstructure

Jurvetson

Wikipedia

Restoring

Wikipedia

Augmenting

Fine Grained Mapping

How can you enhance the beauty of the world, allying yourself with others

who want to do the same?

Society changes and evolvesFractal

Evolutionary Fitness

Resilience

Exponential

If computers could learn, grow and evolve the same way humans can, the world would be a much better place

Geordie Rose

Interaction Design

Blind

Communicating

Touch

Vision

Conversation

Thinking

Every object must be smart

Leandro Agr

Intelligence Augmentation

Artificial Intelligence

Anthropocene

99%

1% 2%

98%

10.000 BC Today

terrestrial vertebrates in the wild

humans pets cattle

Anthropocene

AnthropoceneUnsustainable

myfavoritedinosaur.com, LadyofHats, OpenClips

Reason

Technology Is Key

Science

Hierarchy

Network

The Fundamental Thesis Of The Network Society

1

Widespread social and economic change only happens once a solid technological foundation evolves to make it sustainable.

2

Globally distributed and decentralized technologies have emerged that achieve superior results with respect to centralized and hierarchical ones.

3

These unstoppable technologies undermine and disrupt the Nation States supporting pillars. The resulting socioeconomic organization is the Network Society.

Network Society Pillars

Photovoltaics - Ecat?1. Energy

2. Manufacturing

3D hydroponics - Plantlab

plantlab

3. Food

4. Health

5. Learning

P2P Currency - Bitcoin

sylvar

6. Finance

7. Security

8. Policy

thecrazyfilmgirl

Unstoppable

Toolbox

Living In The Network Society

New Organizations

Empowerment

Emancipation

Experiential

Learning

Year Prohibitions Ending

1933 Alcohol

1967 Interracial marriage

1976 Assisted suicide

1999 Same sex marriage

2012 Recreational marijuana

Tolerance

Dignity

Community

Ilya Frankazoid / shutterstock.com

Overcoming Dichotomy

Sustainability For-Profit Nonprofit New

Economical

Social & Environmental

Spiking State of Alarm

Incumbent systems

http

s://e

n.wi

kiped

ia.or

g/wi

ki/Zo

ngli_

Yam

en#m

ediav

iewer

/File

:Zon

gli_Y

amen

_mem

bers

_189

4.jp

g

Bureaucracies

Resistant

http://bestandworstever.blogspot.it/2012/04/worst-playground-sign-ever.html

Precaution

http

://pi

xaba

y.com

/en/

mim

ic-pa

nic-s

crat

ch-w

oman

-per

son-

1569

28/

Panic

Overreaction

Overreaction

Overreaction

Overreaction

http

s://c

omm

ons.w

ikim

edia.

org/

wiki/

File:

Don't

_Pan

ic_Ba

dge.

jpg

Its All OK

Themes 2

Exponential Uncertainty

Lifespan Of An S&P 500 CompanyYe

ars

1920s Today

15

67

Phot

o: S

hutte

rsto

ck

30 m 0.5 m

Phot

o: S

hutte

rsto

ck

1 m/s ?

Phot

o: S

hutte

rsto

ck

familymwr

Linear

Exponential

Emotional Computing

When Machines Start To Think

IBM Watson

Science And Engineering Of Morality

2. Resources

Renewables

Wood

30 Years

Hydrocarbons

50M Years

Fission

4B Years

Fusion

Not Renewable

Photovoltaic

Sudden Shifts

The latest solar PV project tendered in Dubai returned a low bid* that set a new global benchmark and is competitive with oil at US$10/barrel and gas at US$5/MMBtu.

* 200MW solar tender won by ACWA Power. $US0.0584/kWh without subsidies.http://www.nbad.com/content/dam/NBAD/documents/Business/FOE_Full_Report.pdf

Allocation

Material Resources

P2P Currency - Bitcoin

sylvar

Financial Resources

Energy

Reputation

Ambition

3. PrinciplesSome

Seb PaquetAny Sufficiently Advanced Job Is Indistinguishable From Play

Transparency

Identity

Trust

Anybody where time

{

Open Source Distributed

Decentralized

Searching

Topic Area

Dep

th o

f Exp

lora

tion

A B C

1

2

...

3

...

Solution Search Space

Depth First Search Strategy

A B C

1

2

3

4

5

Topic Area

Dep

th o

f Exp

lora

tion

...

Breadth First Search Strategy

A B C D E

1

2

3

Topic Area

Dep

th o

f Exp

lora

tion

...

David Gelb

Jiro Ono

Older Strategy

A B C

1

2

...

Specialization

Topic Area

Dep

th o

f Exp

lora

tion

3

...

cosimoorban

Richard Saul Wurman

Newer strategy

A B ...

1

2

Cross Fertilization

Topic Area

Dep

th o

f Exp

lora

tion

...

3

C

4. Conclusions

Trying

The Privilege of Failure

The formula for success? Double your rate of failure.

Thomas J. Watson, IBM

The Internet multiplied a thousandfold our failure rate, without increasing the cost of our success

Cory Doctorow

Innovating

Inventing

Questions

Answers

Ignorance

Competitiveness

Innovation

Invention!

Adapting

Adopting

t(idea-action)!0

Opportunity

It Is Also About You

davidorban.com @davidorban

@dotsub @netsocproj@singularityu

Image credits: Shutterstock, family archives, NASA

flickr Paul Downey