neuse estuary monitoring and research program center for
TRANSCRIPT
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Neuse Estuary Monitoring and Research Program
Center for Applied Aquatic Ecology, NCSU
www.waterquality.ncsu.edu
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“Anthropogenic impacts on water quality are strong
and the need for characterizing ambient conditions
and temporal trends in these conditions is
correspondingly urgent.” - Jassby et al. (1997)
More than 2/3 of coastal rivers and bays in the U.S.
are moderately to severely degraded from cultural
eutrophication. – Howarth et al. (2000)
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Program objective (ongoing)
Using a decadal+ dataset, characterize physical,
chemical, biological trends in the Neuse Estuary
Thanks to: CAAE staff and students; statisticians D. Dickey, C.
Brownie; collaborators in 16 agencies and academic institutions;
funding from the NC General Assembly, EPA, private foundations
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Inventoried and groundtruthed major sources of
mammalian wastes (GIS); working to quantify sources of
non-point pollutant loadings
NPDES sites
Swine CAFOs
Cattle
Poultry CAFOs 0 100 200 km
10% Water
Urban
8%
Cropland 23%
Pasture 3%
23%
Forest (+silvaculture) 44%
Neuse Watershed
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Nutrient loading to the Neuse - past decade
Not well quantified – non-point pollution from runoff
(row crops, CAFOs), stormwater (impervious
surfaces), industrial / residential lawn care;
groundwater; atmospheric deposition (wet, dry).
~ 2 million people, ~ 2 million pigs
Human population 16%
Swine population 285%
Urban land cover 110%
Synthetic fertilizers 150%
Watershed profile
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P banned from domestic detergents (1985-).
Biological nutrient removal (BNR) at some major
WWTPs (also reduced bypassing of raw sewage during
moderate-major storm events) (2000-).
Buffers (~17 m [50 ft.] along certain streams, 2000-).
Cropland farmers signed agreement to reduce their
use of N fertilizer by 40% (2003).
Improvements – Neuse watershed
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Methods
Collected water quality data (10 yr, ~40 variables, weekly –
biweekly April-Oct., monthly Nov.-March, more frequently
during blooms, other events); also, ADCP flow data,
augmented (past 4 yr) with RTRM platforms.
Calibrated time series models (ARIMA; log-transformed
data – then transformed back to the original units
for graphs) to improve prediction of long-term trends
in nutrient loadings.
Developed an ADCP-calibrated flow model using a
delivery gate at entrance of estuary, Mills Branch
(previous models estimated flow from ~70 km upstream).
Developed a univariate model for dissolved oxygen
to evaluate long-term trends over time.
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Neuse Estuary study area - CAAE
Pop.
Center
N
Most detailed data set on the Neuse Estuary for the
past decade.
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cm / sec
Flow Out (%)
ADCP Std. Deviation (cm / sec)
ADCP Current Velocity (cm / sec) cm / seccm / sec
Flow Out (%)
ADCP Std. Deviation (cm / sec)
ADCP Current Velocity (cm / sec)
Cross-transect ADCP
detailed data set –included
bottom-tracking capability
for accurate bathymetry
Mass Water Transport
Reed et al. (2004), Estuarine and
Coastal Shelf Science
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0
400
800
1200
Transect
Dis
ch
arg
e (m
3 s
-1)
ADCP (Mills Branch, x-transect)
4 8 12 16 20 24 0 28
USGS fixed point (Kinston)
Model (Mills Branch)
Modeled mass water transport, vs. measurements
Historical approach underestimates mass water transport (Mills Branch
= better gate).
Burkholder et al. (2004), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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CAAE’s Remote Data Acquisition Platforms (1999-)
Meteorological measurements –
wind speed / direction, air temp.,
rel. humidity, barometric pressure,
incident solar radiation, precip.
Hydrological measurements – water
level, water temp., salinity, DO,
redox, pH, turbidity.
Discrete water samples (ISCO
sampler; short / long intervals); e.g,
> 204,000 nutrient samples analyzed.
www.waterquality.ncsu.edu Glasgow et al. 2004 –
J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol.
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Dissolved oxygen (example)
www.waterquality.ncsu.edu
DO 10-15 Aug. 2001
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Profiler Record for DO (Carolina Pines, ~2,400 casts)
De
pth
(m
)
DO
13 June – major fish kill
Winter Spring Fall Fall Summer
DO DO DO DO DO DO 0
16 DO
16
12
8
4
0
Glasgow et al. (2004), J. Exp. Mar. Biol. Ecol.)
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Color infrared photograph
Powerboat
Neuse dinoflagellate bloom (Prorocentrum minimum)
near south shore at Mills Branch, Dec. 2000
Prorocentrum minimum
More intensive bloom sampling
Springer et al. 2004, Harmful Algae
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Chlorophyll a concentrations
Springer et al. (2004), Harmful Algae
www.waterquality.ncsu.edu
Phytoplankton chlorophyll a
April – 28, 2001
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250
200
150
100
50
µg / LFeb. 6
TP
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
NO3-
µg / LApril 9
NH4+
Oct. 19
100
80
60
40
20
0
µg / L250
200
150
100
50
µg / LFeb. 6
TP 250
200
150
100
50
250
200
150
100
50
µg / LFeb. 6
TP
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
NO3-
µg / LApril 9
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
NO3-
µg / LApril 9
NH4+
Oct. 19
100
80
60
40
20
0
µg / LNH4+
Oct. 19
100
80
60
40
20
0
µg / L
Related to nutrient pulses
Springer et al. (2004),
Harmful Algae
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Annual Water Delivery Volumes at Mills Branch
6
7
8
9
10
11
Flo
w (
m3 x
10
9)
1991 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 1992
Emily* and above-
normal winter
Danielle*
Bob*
Allison*
Fran, Bertha,
Arthur*, Josephine*
Bonnie*, and
wet spring
El Niño
mid’97-
early’98
Dennis*,
Floyd, Irene*
100-yr drought
Burkholder et al. (2004), Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
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TN loading – Neuse Estuary
TN
0
5
10
15
20
25
28%, p = 0.017
TN
(kg
x 1
05)
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 93
TN
0
5
10
15
20
25
15%, p = 0.313
TN
(kg
x 1
05)
Drought-
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 93
Parametric PROC ARIMA, non-parametric Seasonal
Kendall Tau models agreed: Significant decrease
(~28%) in TN loading. However, drought years drove
the trend.
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TN loading estimates (Neuse Estuary)
PROC ARIMA (parametric), Seasonal Kendall Tau (non-
parametric) trend analyses: trends (+ drought) were not
affected by the hurricanes.
No significant change in TN loading over the past decade –
“running to stand still”.
1996
1999
Dennis
Floyd
Irene
Precip. contours Fran
No change in trend T
N (
kg
x 1
05
)
0
5
10
15
20 TN loading
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 93 94
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~200 – 500% increase (significant, with or without the
sustained drought). Potential drivers: changes in land
use and waste inputs, regeneration etc. [NO3- concs.
increased 120%, but not significant ].
NH4+ concentrations - Neuse Estuary
Year
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03
50
100
150
200
250 1994 - 2003
503%, p < 0.0001
NH
4+ (
µg
L-1
)
Year
1994 – 1999 (excluding drought)
190%, p = 0.015
Drought
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0
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No significant trend for all stations considered
collectively, but significant increases (up 60%) at some
stations.
Chlorophyll a – Neuse Estuary (1994 – 2003)
Chla
(µ
g L
-1 )
94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 0
100
200
300
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Summary (Neuse, 1993 – 2003)
TN loading 28% (significant; but drought-related
[2000-2002]. Loading is again increasing). TN trend
highly sensitive to Tinitial (no change from 1994-). No
change in TP loading + drought.
NH4
+ concentrations 200 – 500%; significant + drought.
Chla in localized areas, but no change overall.
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From analysis of this decadal database
Drought-related TN loading decrease (loading again
increasing.
Highly significant increase in NH4
+ concentrations,
related to non-point sources. Improved treatment of some major point sources (sewage);
Overall, these analyses point to the need to control
additional non-point sources, as in many estuaries
throughout the world.
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Ongoing and Future Plans – Neuse Monitoring
and Research Program (CAAE and partners)
Assess factors controlling harmful algal blooms
(meteorology, nutrient fluxes, grazing);
Improve quantification of nutrient loading, and examine
the role of non-point sources on algal blooms (RTRM);
Finish validating the U.S. EPA EFDC/WASP models
to improve prediction of phytoplankton chlorophyll,
harmful algal blooms.
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Ongoing and Future Plans (CAAE and partners)
Environmental education outreach (various secondary schools, high schools, colleges)
Floating Classroom Program – RV Humphries