nevada senate case study - university of new …...nevada senate case study harry reid (d) vs....
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Prepared for the Perfect Political Storm:
Harry Reid Survives the Wave Nevada Senate Case Study
Harry Reid (D) vs. Sharon Angle (R)
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“Harry Reid is dead. Now if only the GOP can find someone to entomb
him, perhaps he will not do yet again what he has done his entire career, which is miraculously come
back to life to horrify state and national Republicans.” - Las Vegas
Sun’s Jon Ralston in Jan. 2009
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Harry Reid • 4-time incumbent, 2-term congressman
• First elected 1982
• Majority Leader, easily won re-
election in 2004 (61 to 35 percent)
• 33 percent Nevada approval rating (Jan. 2010)
• 8 percent favorability rating nationally (Jan. 2010)
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Sharon Angle (R) • Reno, Nevada native
• Tea Party backed conservative
• Former state assemblywoman
• Former school board member
• Failed in run for U.S. congress seat in 2006
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Nevada: A Microcosim of America’s Struggles
• Highest Unemployment in Nation (14 % in Oct.)
• Highest Illegal Alien Population
• Highest foreclose rate in Country
• Economy spurred by gaming and mining
• 17 Counties, mostly rural and Republican
• Clark County accounts for 70% state population
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THE ON-AIR AD CAMPAIGN Nasty and Personal
• Lone TV debate (no audience) was a flop
• Angle’s Ad Message
- Reed supports illegal aliens
- Reid to blame for economy, unemployment and foreclosures in Nevada
Reid’s Ad message
- Angle too “Dangerous and Extreme” for Nevada
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NEVADA’S Spending Spree Total Spent = $54 million
Angle = $28.2 million
Reid = $26 million
Outside spending = $17.5 million
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Public Polling Misses the Mark Company Date Angle Reid Margin
PPP 10/30-10/31 47 46 Angle +1
Fox /Rasmussen 10/30-10/30 48 45 Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason Dixon 10/25-10/27 49 45 Angle +4
Rasmussen 10/25-10/25 49 45 Angle +4
CNN/Time 10/20-10/26 49 45 Angle +4
Rasmussen 10/17-10/17 50 47 Angle +3
LVRJ/Mason Dixon 10/11-10/12 48 46 Angle +2
Rasmussen 10/11-10/11 49 48 Angle +1
Actual Results 11/3 44.6 50.2 Reid +5.6
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2010 Results by County
County
( % electorate)
Reid
%
Angle
%
Reid
Margin
Clark (61%) 54.5 41.5 + 60,492
Washoe (19%) 50 45 + 7,047
15 RURAL
counties (19%)
37 63 -26,880
TOTAL 50.2 44.6 +41,124
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Keys to Reid’s survival
• Incumbency advantage
• Ground game (getting supporters to the polls)
– Reid won late deciders 75 – 20 percent
• Portray Angle as too dangerous and extreme
• Cater to minorities
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Reid’s Minority Report
69%
79% 79%
30%
10%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Hispanics - 16% of voters Blacks - 6% of voters Asians - 4% of voters
Reid Angle
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Nevada Exit polls
83%
18%
66%
91%
11%
44%
11%
77%
30%
5%
84%
48%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Liberal (19%)
Conservative (40%)
Moderate (41%)
Democrat (35%)
Republican (33%)
Independent (32%)
Angle Reid
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What Happened?
• Rasmussen – miscalculated Reid’s appeal among unaffiliated voters
• CNN – the race flipped in final day
• Mason-Dixon – Underestimated ground game
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Bibliography
Abraham, Ryan. “Interview of Harry Reid Campaign Volunteer.” 10 Nov. 2010. Personal Interview.
Associated Press (1). “Poll: Harry Reid’s Approval Rating at 33 Percent in Nevada.” The Boston Herald. 10 Jan. 2010. Web
<http://www.bostonherald.com/news/us_politics/view/20100110poll_harry_reid_ s_approval_rating_at_33_percent_in_Nevada/>
Associated Press (2). “Feds Slate $57.2 million in housing aid for Nevada.” HarryReid.com
News. 29 Sep. 2010. Web
http://www.harryreid.com/index.php/news/article/feds_slate_57.2_million_in_housing_aid_for_nevada/
Associated Press (3). “Unemployment surges in Nevada cities.” My4 News. Web. 29
Sep.2010..
http://www.mynews4.com/story.php?id=28794&n=122
Ball (1), Molly. “Comeback: How did Harry Reid do it?” Politico. 4 Nov. 2010
<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44714.html>
Ball (2), Molly. “No debate over Nevada debate.” Politico. 15 Oct. 2010. Web.
<http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43680.html>
Catanese, David. “Nevada Senate polling draws scrutiny.” Politico. 10 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1110/44910.html>
Damon, Annjeanette. “Sen. Harry Reid wins fifth term against anti-incumbent fervor.” The Las Vegas Sun. 2 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/02/harry-reid-takes-lead-over-sharron-angle/> Goldberg, Delen. “Harry Reid’s near-perfect game plan makes victory look like child’s play.” The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/07/game-harry-reid-won/> Green, Steve. “Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide.” The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/28/report-despite-increases-nationally-las-vegas-home/> Hagar, Ray. “Who is Sharon Angle.” Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, 2010. <http://www.rgj.com/article/20100720/NEWS19/7180380/Who-is-Sharron-Angle-> Green, Steve. “Report: Despite increases nationally, Las Vegas home prices continue slide.” The Las Vegas Sun. 28 Sept. 2010. Web. <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/sep/28/report-despite-increases-nationally-las-vegas-home/> Hagar, Ray. “Who is Sharon Angle.” Reno Gazette-Journal. Web. 20 Jul, 2010. <http://www.rgj.com/article/20100720/NEWS19/7180380/Who-is-Sharron-Angle->
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Bibliography cont.
Hananoki, Eric. “Sharon Angle brags about her fundraising from ‘friendly’ outlets like Fox News.” Media Matters for America. 22 Sep. 2010. Web.
<http://mediamatters.org/blog/201009220018>
Lewison, Jed. “Sue Lowden’s health barter plan.” DailyKosTV. 20 Apr. 2010. Web Video.
<http://www.dailykos.com/tv/w/002666/>
Manu, Raju, “Sharon Angle burns through money in third quarter.” Politico. 15 Oct. 2010. Web.
• <http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1010/43675.html>
•
• Ralston (1), Jon. “One Word: Preparation.” The Las Vegas Sun. 7 Nov. 2010. Web.
• <http://www.lasvegassun.com/news/2010/nov/07/one-word-preparation/>
•
• Ralston (2), John, “Ralston’s Flash,” The Las Vegas Sun. 30 Oct. 2010. Web.
• <http://www.lasvegassun.com/blogs/ralstons-flash/2010/oct/30/republicans-lose-ground-second-straight-day-early-/>
•
Sebelius, Steve. “Tea Party: Angle gets the nod.” Citylife Presents SlashPolitics. 15 Apr. 2010. <http://slashpolitics.lvcitylife.com/2010/04/tea-party-angle-gets-the-nod/> Seigel, Elyse. “Top Nevada Republican endorses Harry Reid, slams Sharon Angle.” The Huffington Post. 7 Oct. 2010. Web. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/07/bill-raggio-endorses-harry-reid- slams-angle_n_755109.html> Slevin, Peter. “New Arizona law puts police in 'tenuous' spot.” The Washington Post. <http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2010/04/29/AR2010042 904970.html?sid=ST2010042905051>