8/8/2019 New all time high for gold with no Risky Levels as yet

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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Newtown, PA. ValuEnginecovers over 7,000 stocks every day.

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September 17, 2010 – New al l t ime high for gold w i t h no Risk y Levels as yet

The 10-Year US Treasury yield is still between my annual pivot at 2.813 and this week’s risky

level at 2.609. Gold is above this month’s pivot at $1263.8 after another new all time high at$1279.3. Crude oil is below annual and weekly pivots at $77.05 and $77.69. The euro is betweenits 50-day simple moving average at 1.2886 and its 200-day at 1.3233. The Dow has becomeoverbought and holding my semiannual pivot at 10,558 targets my weekly risky level at 10,699.Home repossessions are on the rise while business CFOs sentiment softens.

10-Year Note – (2.761) Annual and annual value levels are 2.813 and 2.999 with a daily pivot at2.731, and weekly, monthly, quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.609, 2.562, 2.495 and 2.249. 

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1275.8) Semiannual, quarterly and annual value levels are $1218.7, $1140.9 and$1115.2 with daily, weekly, semiannual and monthly pivots at $1272.7, $1252.7, $1260.8 and $1263.8

8/8/2019 New all time high for gold with no Risky Levels as yet

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Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($74.38) My quarterly value level is $56.63 with a monthly pivot at $74.45, anddaily, annual and weekly pivots at $76.16, $77.05 and $77.69 and semiannual risky level at $83.94.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

8/8/2019 New all time high for gold with no Risky Levels as yet

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The Euro – (1.3080) Daily and weekly value levels are 1.2855 and 1.2792. Quarterly and monthlyvalue levels are 1.2167, 1.1721 and 1.1424 with semiannual risky level at 1.4733. Note that MOJO isrising again on the daily chart.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (10,595) Annual, monthly and quarterly value levels are 10,379, 10,164 and 7,812 withdaily and semiannual pivots at 10,539 and 10,558, and weekly and annual risky levels at 10,699 and11,235. My annual risky level at 11,235 was tested at the April 26 th high of 11,258.01. The Dow 

has become overbought.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

8/8/2019 New all time high for gold with no Risky Levels as yet

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Home Repossessions are on the Rise - Lenders took possession of more homes in August than inany month since the start of “The Great Credit Crunch.” Even though the number of properties

entering foreclosure slowed for the 7

th

month in a row, banks repossessed 95,365 properties inAugust, up 3% sequentially and 25% year over year. These homes become Other Real Estate Ownedon the books of the banks and they represent the hidden inventory of homes that will be sold atdepressed prices to compete with homeowners who are selling existing homes at lower prices in eachof the past three months.

The reason foreclosures have slowed is that banks are delaying initiating the foreclosure process onhomeowners who have missed payments, letting borrowers in default stay in their homes longer. Thisis a problem as a slowing economy is keeping unemployment stubbornly high and keeping consumerconfidence in the dumps.

The sale of existing and new homes have fallen off a cliff in the months following the expiration of the

home buyer tax credits which expired at the end of April for contracts and ends for closings at the endof this month (extended from June). RealtyTrac estimates that 2.3 million homes have beenrepossessed since “The Great Credit Crunch” began at the end of December 2007. They estimate thamore than a million households will lose their homes to foreclosure in 2010.

The Duke University / CFO Magazine Business Outlook Survey - The survey says that pessimismabout the US economy has returned to recessionary levels among CFOs, which is a clear sign of aDouble-Dip. I have opined on numerous occasions that you can’t have a double-dip until the first diphas ended, which in my judgment has not. The NBER has not time-stamped the end of the recessionthat began in December 2007. How can they with unemployment at 9.6% when the recession wasdeclared with an unemployment rate at 4.6%? This is common sense everyone! 

This plus uncertainty with regard to health care and tax policy has many of the 937 CFOs polled byDuke hoarding cash and stating that credit remains too tight for small businesses. Without solution tothe unknowns CFOs foresee earnings growth and capital spending declining over the next six totwelve months.

That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.

Richard SuttmeierChief Market StrategistValuEngine.com(800) 381-5576

Send your comments and questions to Rsuttmeier@Gmail.com. For more information on our productsand services visit www.ValuEngine.com 

As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.comI have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters awell as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the

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“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”