New concepts and ideas New concepts and ideas in air pollution strategiesin air pollution strategies

Richard BallamanRichard BallamanChairman of the Working Group Chairman of the Working Group

on Strategies and Reviewon Strategies and Review

Future challengesFuture challenges

Accession to protocols by as many Parties as Accession to protocols by as many Parties as possiblepossibleEffective implementation of Protocols by EECCA Effective implementation of Protocols by EECCA countriescountries

Further reduction of emissions: NHFurther reduction of emissions: NH33, NO, NOxx, VOC, , VOC, SOSO22, HMs and POPs , HMs and POPs

Derive new and lower NECsDerive new and lower NECsGood cooperation on transatlantic or Good cooperation on transatlantic or hemispheric issues: Hg, Ohemispheric issues: Hg, O33, PM and POPs, PM and POPs

What remains to be done ?What remains to be done ?

Reduce acidification, especially from NHReduce acidification, especially from NH33

DecreaseDecrease eutrophication (N deposition) eutrophication (N deposition)

Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation Limit violations of AOT40 CL to avoid vegetation damagedamage

Decrease ODecrease O33 as significant cause of premature as significant cause of premature

deathdeath

Decrease population exposure to PMDecrease population exposure to PM

Health & environmental impactHealth & environmental impact(RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)(RAINS_BL_CLE, August 2004, C. Agren)

Estimated loss in SLE in EU25 from anthropogenic PM2.5 (months)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2010 2020

Percentage forest area in EU25 with acid deposition exceeding critical loads

0

5

10

15

20

25

2000 2010 2020

Percentage ecosystem area in EU25 with nitrogen deposition exceeding critical loads

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2000 2010 2020

Acid deposition to forestsAcid deposition to forests (IIASA)(IIASA)

Percentage of forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific deposition.Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Excess of critical loads for eutrophicationExcess of critical loads for eutrophication (IIASA)(IIASA)

Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen deposition above critical loads, using grid-average deposition. Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsVegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40 [ppm.hours]AOT40 [ppm.hours] (IIASA)(IIASA)

2000 2010 2020

Critical level for forests = 5 ppm.hours Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

Premature deaths attributable to ozonePremature deaths attributable to ozone[cases/year][cases/year] (IIASA)(IIASA)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nm

ark

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

lan

d

Ita

ly

Lu

xem

bo

urg

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ed

en

UK

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

ng

ary

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

2000 2010 2020

Provisional calculations with 50X50 km resolution

Loss in life expectancy attributable to Loss in life expectancy attributable to

anthropogenic PM2.5 [months]anthropogenic PM2.5 [months] (IIASA)(IIASA)

Average of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 & 2003 meteorologies

2000 2010 2020

Loss in life expectancy Loss in life expectancy attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5 attributable to anthropogenic PM2.5

[months][months]

0

3

6

9

12

15

Au

stri

a

Be

lgiu

m

De

nma

rk

Fin

lan

d

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ire

land

Italy

Lu

xem

bou

rg

Ne

ther

lan

ds

Po

rtu

ga

l

Sp

ain

Sw

ede

n

UK

To

tal E

U-1

5

Cze

ch R

ep

.

Est

on

ia

Hu

nga

ry

La

tvia

Lith

ua

nia

Ma

lta

Po

lan

d

Slo

vaki

a

Slo

ven

ia

To

tal N

MS

To

tal E

U-2

5

2000 2010 2020 Source: RAINS / IIASA

What can be done ?What can be done ?

Use PM health effects as driving force to further Use PM health effects as driving force to further reduce emissions of primary and secondary reduce emissions of primary and secondary pollutantspollutants

Identify the potential for new technical measuresIdentify the potential for new technical measures(define BAT to derive ELV)(define BAT to derive ELV)

Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and Make use of synergies to abate air pollution and avoid climate changeavoid climate change

Consider structural changes and alternative Consider structural changes and alternative energy policiesenergy policies

Acidification

Eutrophication

Tropospheric ozone

Multi pollutants / multi effects approach with new pollutants and additional problems

SO2

NH3

NOx

NMVOC

Climate change

Particulate matter

Population exposure

CO

CH4

CO2

N 2O

primaryPM

HMs POPs

Acidification

Eutrophication

Tropospheric ozone

Multi pollutants / multi effects approach: extended version with new avenues for action

SO2

NH3

NOx

NMVOC

Climate change

Particulate matter

Population exposure

CO

CH4

CO2

N 2O

primaryPMHMs POPs

Emissions 1990 – 2020 Emissions 1990 – 2020 (RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)(RAINS BL_ CLE, Aug. 04)

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

SO2 emissions

Sea regionsRem. Eur.EU10 newEU15 old

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NOx emissions (in kTonnes N)

0

1500

3000

4500

6000

7500

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

NH3 emissions (in kTonnes N)

0

4000

8000

12000

16000

20000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

VOC emissions

Source categories to further considerSource categories to further consider

Ships, diesel vehicles, off-road sectorShips, diesel vehicles, off-road sector

Industrial processes, solventsIndustrial processes, solvents

Small combustion (wood burning) Small combustion (wood burning)

Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage and Agriculture (animal housing, manure storage and spreading)spreading)

Retrofitting of existing sourcesRetrofitting of existing sources

Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)Increased use of alternative fuels (fuel switching)

Relevance of sources will changeRelevance of sources will change

Cattle number Cattle number

EF per veh. EF per veh.

Diesel engines Diesel engines

Aviation Aviation Shipping Shipping

Milk productivity per animal Milk productivity per animal NHNH33 emissions emissions

Road traffic (driven mileage) Road traffic (driven mileage) Total emissions Total emissions

PM PM NOx NOx

Total emissions Total emissions

WHO European Centre for Environment and Health

Source: Pope et al, JAMA 2002

Long term exposure to PM and risk of mortalityin ACS cohort

TFH 2003: “..apply the relative risk for all cause mortality… in the extended American Cancer Society (ACS) cohort study Pope et al. (2002).”

Possible challenges beyond 2010 Possible challenges beyond 2010

Increase life expectancy of European population Increase life expectancy of European population by at least 6 months by at least 6 months

Reduce by 50% remaining excess of Reduce by 50% remaining excess of acidification and eutrophicationacidification and eutrophication

Contribute to the avoidance of climate change Contribute to the avoidance of climate change by reducing Oby reducing O33 and PM concentrations, and PM concentrations, as well as abatement of CHas well as abatement of CH44 and CO emissions and CO emissions on a regional scaleon a regional scale