new connected countryside - smith school of business · non-verbal communications 93% of...

Building the community of the 21st Century

Norman Jacknis ICF Senior Fellow

May 8, 2014 Kingston, Ontario

A New Connected Countryside —The Rural Imperative

What Is The Intelligent Community Forum?

May 8, 2014 © 2014 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 2

ICF Is A Global Network

The global organization that brings together the visionary leaders who make broadband and technology an integral part of their community buildingOrganized more than 15 years ago With leaders from more than 125 communities (regions, cities, counties) around the world


Community AcceleratorCommunity Accelerator

New York City@


What Are The Long Term Trends In Broadband Internet Technology?


There Isn’t Only One Way For A Person To Get From Point A To Point B


There Isn’t Only One Way For A Person To Get Broadband


Broadband Internet Trends

High Quality Visual Communications Everywhere


Non-Verbal Communications93% of communication is nonverbal

Especially critical in establishing trust between people“Seeing Is Believing”

We process visual information 60,000 times faster than textMehrabian's communications research

7% of message pertaining to feelings and attitudes is in the words that are spoken. 38% of message pertaining to feelings and attitudes is paralinguistic (the way that the words are said). 55% of message pertaining to feelings and attitudes is in facial expression.


Corporate Video-Conferencing Is Rapidly Increasing

Within the next couple of years, about two thirds of businesses will have adopted some kind of telepresence solution – Forrester


The Black Eyed Peas in France


It’s Getting More And More Like Being There


We Are Only In The Early Stages Of The Internet’s DevelopmentNot yet today, but by 2030 — A world of high quality visual communication and easy collaboration everywhere, enabling anyone anywhere to virtually meet anyone else anywhere else


Why Talk About The Future Today?“A good hockey player plays where the puck is ... a great player plays where the puck will be.” ― Wayne Gretzky“If the rate of change on the outside exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near.” ― Jack Welch, former CEO, General Electric"We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” ― Roy Amara, past president of The Institute for the Future“The future is already here. It's just not very evenly distributed.” ― William Gibson, sci-fi novelist and coiner of “cyberspace”

Laying a foundation for a flourishing future takes time;There are important things to do today to start


What Are The Long Term Trends In The Economy? And How Will They Change Our Lives In The Future?


Economic Trends

How Did We Get Where We Are Today?


What Leads To Economic Growth? Specialization of the skills of people so everyone is producing the most for society Creation of new knowledge and innovations

Which results in new products/services or enhances productivity in producing existing products/services

These, in turn, depend upon communications and collaboration among many, diverse people In the 20th century age of industry, cities put many people in close proximity which enabled better communications and collaboration

Which made cities the engines of economic growth


Why Urban Areas Became Engines Of Wealth


Urban areas increased physical

proximity between people

Urban areas had the large

number of workers who were required

in factories

With many people close to

each other, it was easier to exchange

goods/services and innovations

Which increased specialized skills and innovations

that created more wealth

Which brought more people to

the area

The Old Economy’s RulesEconomic activity is tied to the factory, office building and storeBig companies could concentrate employment and were the source of many jobs

Government provides incentives to get them to move jobs – “economic hunting”

The usual market is localThe usual source of business services is localSimilar and related businesses cluster in the same physical locationQuality of life is traded off for the sake of growth


Business Clusters Developed

The major movie studios locate near each other in Hollywood, 1922


Economic Trends

But Things Are Changing


The Study Of Economic Geography Led To Cluster Policies, But …

Princeton University Economics Professor Paul Krugman won the 2008 Nobel Prize for identifying the “new economic geography” (aka cluster theory) some 20-30 years earlierBut in his acceptance speech, he noted changes:

“[Clustering] may describe forces that are waning rather than gathering strength. ““The data accord with common perception: many of the traditional localizations of industry have declined (think of the Akron rubber industry), and those that have arisen, such as Silicon Valley, don’t seem comparable in scale.”


“Cluster Requiem And The Rise Of Cumulative Growth Theory”

2009 research at the University of North Carolina that tracked the growth and survival of a cohort of more than 300,000 establishments operating in Pennsylvania from 1997-2007

“Industry cluster theory has … an inability to explain economic dispersion and the presence of high-growing firms that thrive in non-clustered industries and locations.”“Firm characteristics are 10-times more powerful than industry and cluster characteristics, and 50-times more powerful than location characteristics, in explaining and predicting establishment-level growth and survival”A sub-set of businesses systematically accumulate a disproportionate share of employment growth. Roughly 1% of establishments created 169% of all net new jobs added in the state over a ten-year period


Business clusters could be less relevant as drivers of innovation than has been commonly assumed. The Stavanger Centre for Innovation Research analysed 1,600 companies with more than 10 employees located in the five largest Norwegian city-regions. Rather than national clusters, international cooperation or “global pipelines” were identified as the main drivers of innovation.

Hannes Selhofer on 21 March, 2011


“If I can make it in New York, I'll make it anywhere”

“Today, 36 percent of daily trades in stocks that are listed on the New York Stock Exchange are actually executed on the exchange, down from about 75 percent nearly four years ago. The rest of are conducted elsewhere, on new electronic exchanges … half of the jobs there have disappeared over the last five years … “Unlike the Big Board, the new electronic exchanges are virtually unknown outside financial circles. Direct Edge, the largest, is in Jersey City. Another, the BATS Exchange, is based in Lenexa, Kan [picture above]. Both are only about five years old. But each now accounts for about a 10th of daily United States stock trading. “ − October 15, 2009 New York Times Front News Page


Economic Trends

Making A Living By Providing Digital Goods & Services


One Hundred Year Shift In The USA


Thousands of employees and percent of total

Employment 1900

Employment 2000 Percent 1900 Percent 2000

Agriculture 11,680 3,281 43.5 2.4

Goods 7,252 25,710 27.0 18.8

Services 6,832 85,370 25.4 62.5

Government 1,094 22,131 4.1 16.2

Total 26,858 136,492 100.0 100.0

71%

79%


In Europe Too

At The Apex Of The Industrial Era, The Factory Concentrated Jobs


In The Service Economy, Office Towers Are Supposed To Do The Same


But Where Did All The Office Workers Go?

“Jones Lang LaSalle changes the current rule of thumb concerning office space per employee, shrinking it from 200 sq. ft. per employee to just 50 sq. ft. by 2015.”“40% of IBM employees work from a location other than an office at IBM.”


Economic Trends

So Where Are We Headed?


Big Companies Can No Longer Be The Source Of Lots Of Jobs And Growth

Global supply chains & outsourcingContractors instead of employeesGlobal presence, not one main locationFrom Coase’s Theory of the Firm (1937) to Shirky’s “Here Comes Everybody: The Power of Organizing Without Organizations” (2008)


Even Manufacturing Is Being Decentralized By 3D Printing


The Individual Increasingly Becomes The Key Unit Of Economic Activity

More small and flexible teams are likely as coordination becomes cheaper with better communicationsOld style: 1 CEO for 50,000 or more employeesNew Style: 1 CEO for 50 employees or even 5


The Future Economy’s RulesEconomic activity not tied to factories, office buildings, and stores

The connected home is a place to work, buy, be entertainedAn economic “gardening”, not “hunting”, strategy

Economic growth ≠ commercial real estate developmentBusinesses cluster virtually, not physically

Big companies are not moving many jobsMarkets are global

Anyone connected to anyone anywhereQuality of life increases economic competitiveness

In the future, this will attract people to live in your community


The Laws Of Economics Won’t ChangeDifferentiation of the skills of people so everyone is producing the most for society Creation of new knowledge and innovations

Which results in new products/services or enhances productivity in producing existing products/services

These, in turn, depend upon communications and collaboration among many, diverse people


What changes is that physical proximity will no longer be the only or dominant

way to connect people

This Is The Key Question For Economic Strategy In Future Decades


When most people can work anywhere, where will they choose to live & work?

Why We Need A Rural Imperative To Create A New Connected Countryside


ScaleProximity Excitement

“Wisely or not, Homo sapiens has become Homo urbanus," says the UN, forecasting that 2/3 of world's population will live in cities by 2030.

With Industrialization, Rural Areas Seem To Have Lost Out To Urban Areas


But The Game Starts Anew In This Century

There is now an unprecedented opportunity for the countrysideBroadband offers the opportunity to eliminate the feeling of being in the “middle of nowhere”Rural communities can thrive as dynamic and exciting places to live, work and start a business –while maintaining their quality of life


Minnesota Intelligent Rural Communities Project

11 rural towns and counties investing in economic, social and cultural development based on broadband

ICF Rural Areas Are Leading The Way


Bristol, Virginia (p. 17,000)New jobs entering the “broadband economy” pay +67% more than average weekly wage.

Mitchell, South Dakota (p. 15,000)Fiber-to-the-premise network created new industries: precision farming, software, data & customer service centers, communications consulting.

To Greater Employment


Broadband Internet Has Already Paid Off From 2001 To 2010

Rural counties in USA with +60% broadband adoption…

Had higher growth in median household incomeMuch slower growth in unemployment during recessions

Rural counties with -40% broadband adoption…Had lower growth in total employment and number of employers


“Broadband’s Economic Impact,” The Daily Yonder

But Broadband Alone Is Insufficient

ICF communities have learned that deploying broadband itself will not be transformational

It may not even be adopted by many of the people who could obtain broadband Internet

Broadband Internet can enable and must be tied in with all the other aspects of community development

What can broadband Internet make possible? …

What Does Broadband Internet Make Possible?

A Platform For Lifelong Learning That Will Increase People’s Income Potential


Need For Cost-Effective Life-Long Learning


The average job length is 4.1 years

edX


• EdX is available to anyone in the world with an internet connection

• Online learners who demonstrate mastery earn a certificate of completion, issued by the "X University" from where the course originated, i.e., HarvardX, MITxor BerkeleyX

Coursera


University Of The Third Age


Public Libraries Are A Cost-Effective Guide To Global Innovation

The libraries should be tasked to organize the vast amount of free training and courses online in a range of subjects from business knowledge to technical skills The public library should be the corporate librarian for entrepreneurs and other innovators

Helping to conduct market research, identify opportunities…


ChattanoogaPublic Library

4th Floor


Connecting Residents To Global Economic Opportunities & Services


Eleutian Technologies


Even Connect Low-Tech Business To The Global Economy


Business Support Services BecomeAccessible Around The GlobeBusiness support services have become within reach of people in more locations than in the past … Between any other part of the globe and people here


Connect Entrepreneurs To The Flow Of Capital

Capital is flowing more freely around the globeMake sure your entrepreneurs are connected to these sources of funds

New forms of investment


Connect Entrepreneurs To Research At Great Universities

Many public leaders are trying to recreate Stanford, MIT, Princeton and the like in their areas

And they are trying to find some secret way of “commercializing” the research at their local universities

But no single university has a monopoly on knowledge

Much of the best university research from everywhere is available through the Internet

And many entrepreneurs already have the skills to commercialize research, as long as they can find that research



Connecting People To Open Innovation


Innovation And Newly Created Knowledge Is The Key To Future Economic Growth

But how does this happen in a networked world?


Innovation Is A Collaborative Act“That is how innovation happens … chance favors the connected mind.”

– Steven Johnson, Where Good Ideas Come From

"The secret to creativity is knowing how to hide your sources.”

– Albert EinsteinMay 8, 2014 © 2014 Norman Jacknis, Senior Fellow, ICF. All rights reserved 70

Why Would A Company Want Open Innovation?

“P&G employs 7,500 people in its R&D division, but there are 1.5 million scientists throughout the world with expertise in P&G’s areas of interest.” —Larry Huston, Procter & Gamble’s former VP of R&D“More than 50% of P&G innovation comes from external companies of all sizes and from individual entrepreneurs too.”



Opportunities In The Open Innovation Movement

Supporting A Culture Of Innovation



Provide Access To World Class Healthcare


Health Maintenance For Seniors Who Are Generally Healthy

Vermont Telecare for Rural Health Project

• Two-way interactive exercise class for seniors.

• "We know that exercise is helpful for senior patients, but we can't get to them. And we know that Tai Chi helps keep seniors healthy, increases their well-being and balance.“

Health Maintenance For Chronic Diseases

Remote Diagnosis

Remote Consultation

Health Presence allows patients to remotely connect with doctors and clinicians for an encounter that rivals a face-to-face meeting

Robotic Surgery

Becomes remote surgery


Enable Tourists And Residents To See The World Anew


Ontario Augmented Reality Network


Augmented Reality In TheRoyal Ontario Museum


Augmented Reality On The Farm In Spain


Augmented Reality On The Farm In Denmark


Key Principles And Themes


Being Visionary About Your Community

Broadband Internet opens up new possibilities for enhanced quality of life in the countrysideBut broadband and technology will only be widely adopted if combined with community building and visionBroadband Internet enables everyone to participate in creating a vibrant rural community


The Transition To The Future Won’t Be Simple

Plan for the future way that most people will earn a livingProvide people a quality "experience” so they stay

Find the uniqueness of your community and build on it

Every community leader, every citizen, needs to make sure a decision will be made because no decision about the future is also a decision


Building the community of

the 21st Century

Dr. Norman Jacknis+1 (914) [email protected]: njacknis.tumblr.comTwitter: @NormanJacknis


Thank You!

new connected countryside - smith school of business · non-verbal communications 93% of...

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