new developments in housing policy€¦ · 2 housing played a crucial role in the crisis...
TRANSCRIPT
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Andrew Haughwout
Research
FRBNY
New Developments in Housing Policy
The views and opinions presented here are those of the authors, and do notnecessarily reflect those of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York or the FederalReserve System.
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2
Housing played a crucial role in the crisis
Unprecedented increases in mortgage defaults and foreclosures 2007-present
One result has been a sharp decline in homeownership
As officially measured
Effective (accounting for negative equity)
High negative equity an ongoing risk for housing, banking sectors
And economy
Much recent policy action thus focused on housing
Buyer tax credits, Fed MBS purchase & loan modifications
Latter is major ($75B) component of Obama’s MHA program
3-4 million foreclosures to be avoided by 12/31/2012
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3
Overview
Background
Equity & ownership
Implications for foreclosure and savings
Policy response: Mortgage modifications
What works best?
Conclusions
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Some background
Three key determinants of loan performance
Willingness to pay – borrower credit record
Ability to pay – debt burden as share of income
Incentive to pay – borrower equity position
Mortgage default decision is exercise of an option
Axiom: Borrowers with positive equity have better options than default
Sell the house
Collect cash
Have to move anyway
Preserve credit rating
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5
Nonprime Market SharesIndex (1985=100) Percent of $ Originated
LP HPI (left scale)
Nonprime market share (right scale)
Over 39% in 2006
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2002Q1 2003Q1 2004Q1 2005Q1 2006Q1 2007Q1 2008Q1 2009Q1
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
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6
Nonprime CLTV Ratios by Year of Origination
75th Percentile
Source: FirstAmerican CoreLogic LoanPerformance
25th Percentile
25% had zero equity
Median
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
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Foreclosures and Home PricesIndex Number of Foreclosures
Source: FRBNY consumer credit panel and FirstAmerican CoreLogic
Number of New Foreclosures (right axis)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999Q2 2001Q2 2003Q2 2005Q2 2007Q2 2009Q2
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
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Foreclosures and Home PricesIndex Number of Foreclosures
Source: FRBNY consumer credit panel and FirstAmerican CoreLogic
LP Home Price Index (left axis)
Number of New Foreclosures (right axis)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
1999Q2 2001Q2 2003Q2 2005Q2 2007Q2 2009Q2
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
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Some policies supporting homeownership
Federal Taxes
Interest and p-tax deductible (~$140B per year)
Implicit rent exclusion (~$40B per year)
Like a business allowed to deduct costs without paying tax on revenue
First-time buyer credit (2009)
Housing finance
GSEs securitizations and guarantees
FHA/VA loan guarantees
Fed’s MBS purchase program
Rhetoric (bipartisan)
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10
Benefits of homeownership
Private
Participation in a particular asset class
Part of mortgage payment a form of saving
Possibly too much?
Public
“Homevoter” concept
House values affected by LT prospects of place
Homeowners have financial stake in LT
Homeowners participate more, LT-oriented
Classic example: Childless hh supports schools
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Aggregate Measured Homeownership Rate
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Housing and Economic Statistics Division.
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008
Percent
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12
Definitions of homeownership
Official: Census Bureau
Rapid increase after 1996
Alternate: Owners with equity stake in unit
Excludes negative equity households
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Defining negative equity homeowners
Borrower Equity:
Current house value – mortgage balance (all liens)
Mortgage data give us good estimate of 1st
lien balance
Probable undercount of junior liens
Change in value since origination estimated
FHFA (comprehensive but limited)
Case-Shiller (limited geography, more complete)
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Why exclude negative equity “owners”?
Equity determines financial interest
E>0: Increase in HV go to owner
E<0: Less clear; depends on how much
For borrower X% underwater, first X% of HV appreciation goes to lender
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Aggregate Measured and Effective Homeownership
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
68
70
05-Q1 06-Q1 07-Q1 08-Q1 09-Q1
First American Core Logic estimate
Measured
Effective
Percent
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Table 2. MSA Measured and Effective Homeownership Rates
Measured Homeownership
Rate
Effective
Homeownership Rate Homeownership Gap
MSA Peak Current Case-Shiller Case-Shiller
Atlanta 70.8 68.5 53.9 14.6
Boston 67.7 64.9 60.9 4.0
Charlotte 68.3 66.4 60.8 5.6
Chicago 71.3 69.5 54.7 14.8
Cleveland 78.6 67.2 58.8 8.3
Dallas 64.5 60.1 52.0 8.0
Denver 72.0 68.3 59.7 8.6
Detroit 78.4 72.6 42.2 30.3
Las Vegas 65.0 60.4 15.7 44.6
Los Angeles 55.2 50.7 33.2 17.5
Miami 71.0 66.9 42.0 25.0
Minneapolis 74.8 68.8 42.6 26.2
New York 55.9 51.1 46.9 4.2
Phoenix 74.9 70.9 37.5 33.4
Portland 72.7 61.0 53.7 7.2
San Diego 63.3 57.7 31.7 26.0
San Francisco 61.7 57.1 34.7 22.4
Seattle 65.7 62.7 54.4 8.3
Tampa 74.1 68.2 50.2 18.1
Washington DC 70.9 67.7 46.0 21.6
Notes: Current Population Survey data, LPS Applied Analytics and LP data; authors calculations
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Los Angeles
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
LPercent
Effective - CaseShiller
Measured - Census
Effective - FHFA
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18
Miami
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
MPercent
Effective - CaseShiller
Measured - Census
Effective - FHFA
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19
Phoenix
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
PPercent
Effective - CaseShiller
Measured - Census
Effective - FHFA
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Las Vegas
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
LPercent
Effective - CaseShiller
Measured - Census
Effective - FHFA
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Implications of the Homeownership Gap
How the gap closes depends on:
Flow into homeownership
- “First-time” buyers (former renters)
Flow out of homeownership
- Foreclosures, unlikely to lead to continued ownership
- Sale from negative equity, ditto
In order to remain a homeowner, NE borrower must remain current on mortgage plus save:
- New down payment (20%-ish)
- Transactions cost (6%-ish)
- Pay off NE
Debt amortization helps a little
But (lots of) additional savings likely required
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Resaving a downpayment
Monthly ($) Annual ($) Aggregate
($billion)
% D 2009Q1 savings
($464.2 B)
3 year horizon 1,436 17,232 163.9 35.3
5 year horizon 847 10,164 96.7 20.8
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Policy responses: Modifications
High costs of foreclosure to all parties, possibly including “innocent bystanders”
Private servicers’ traditional response to problems with a borrower is modification
Add missed payments to balance
Bring borrower status back to “Current”
Start over
2007/2008: servicers and investors begin wholesale subprime mortgage mods
2009: Obama Administration adds a public plan: HAMP
What are the features of these mods?
What features are most effective?
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Table 4: Nature of Modifications
(a) Total modifications:
Variable Reduction No
Change
Increase
Monthly payment 65 16 19
Balance 30 5 64
Excluding small balance
reductions
5 30 64
Interest rate 70 28 2
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Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
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Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
Average payment reduction: 20%
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27
Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
Unusual for mods to “right” underwater borrowers
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Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
Mean balance reduction=20%
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29
Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
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Table 4: Nature of Modifications – Estimation sample
(d) Dataset used in analysis (51,626)
Reduction No Change Increase
Monthly payment 100 - -
Balance 9 0 90
Excluding small balance
reductions
7 3 90
Interest rate 97 3 0
Mean rate reduction=300bps
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Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots0
.00
0.2
50
.50
0.7
51
.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
Overall
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32
Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots0
.00
0.2
50
.50
0.7
51
.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
Overall
0.43
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33
Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots0
.00
0.2
50
.50
0.7
51
.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
large_reduction = 0 large_reduction = 1
By reduction in monthly payments
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34
Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots0
.00
0.2
50
.50
0.7
51
.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
neg_equity = 0 neg_equity = 1
By negative equity
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35
Kaplan-Meier Survival Plots0
.00
0.2
50
.50
0.7
51
.00
0 2 4 6 8 10analysis time
low_fico = 0 low_fico = 1
By origination FICO
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36
Table 5. Proportional hazard estimates of re-default
Cox proportional hazard
Step-function
proportional
hazard
Variable (1) (2) (3)
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.135**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
Local unemployment rate lagged
6-months less average local rate
0.002
(0.006)
0.009
(0.007)
0.009
(0.007)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.237**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
105 – 1090.277**
(0.034)
0.235**
(0.034)
0.234**
(0.034)
110 – 1140.387**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
115+0.508**
(0.021)
0.444**
(0.025)
0.444**
(0.025)Total at risk months 217,847. Fixed rate mortgage indicator as well as four property type indicators included. Reference property is a single family residence with an adjustable mortgage with positive equity and an origination FICO score of 620 or higher.**significant at the 5 percent level *significant at the 10 percent level
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37
Table 5. Proportional hazard estimates of re-default
Cox proportional hazard
Step-function
proportional
hazard
Variable (1) (2) (3)
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.135**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
Local unemployment rate lagged
6-months less average local rate
0.002
(0.006)
0.009
(0.007)
0.009
(0.007)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.237**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
105 – 1090.277**
(0.034)
0.235**
(0.034)
0.234**
(0.034)
110 – 1140.387**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
115+0.508**
(0.021)
0.444**
(0.025)
0.444**
(0.025)Total at risk months 217,847. Fixed rate mortgage indicator as well as four property type indicators included. Reference property is a single family residence with an adjustable mortgage with positive equity and an origination FICO score of 620 or higher.**significant at the 5 percent level *significant at the 10 percent level
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38
Table 5. Proportional hazard estimates of re-default
Cox proportional hazard
Step-function
proportional
hazard
Variable (1) (2) (3)
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.135**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
Local unemployment rate lagged
6-months less average local rate
0.002
(0.006)
0.009
(0.007)
0.009
(0.007)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.237**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
105 – 1090.277**
(0.034)
0.235**
(0.034)
0.234**
(0.034)
110 – 1140.387**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
115+0.508**
(0.021)
0.444**
(0.025)
0.444**
(0.025)Total at risk months 217,847. Fixed rate mortgage indicator as well as four property type indicators included. Reference property is a single family residence with an adjustable mortgage with positive equity and an origination FICO score of 620 or higher.**significant at the 5 percent level *significant at the 10 percent level
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39
Table 5. Proportional hazard estimates of re-default
Cox proportional hazard
Step-function
proportional
hazard
Variable (1) (2) (3)
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.135**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
–0.128**
(0.006)
Local unemployment rate lagged
6-months less average local rate
0.002
(0.006)
0.009
(0.007)
0.009
(0.007)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.237**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
0.218**
(0.029)
105 – 1090.277**
(0.034)
0.235**
(0.034)
0.234**
(0.034)
110 – 1140.387**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
0.330**
(0.038)
115+0.508**
(0.021)
0.444**
(0.025)
0.444**
(0.025)Total at risk months 217,847. Fixed rate mortgage indicator as well as four property type indicators included. Reference property is a single family residence with an adjustable mortgage with positive equity and an origination FICO score of 620 or higher.**significant at the 5 percent level *significant at the 10 percent level
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Probability of re-default within 12 months
Variable
Change in
re-default rate
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.044**
(0.002)
Local unemployment rate lagged 6-
months less average local rate
0.003
(0.003)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.076**
(0.010)
105 – 1090.082**
(0.012)
110 – 1140.115**
(0.013)
115+0.155**
(0.009)
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Probability of re-default within 12 months
Variable
Change in
re-default rate
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.044**
(0.002)
Local unemployment rate lagged 6-
months less average local rate
0.003
(0.003)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.076**
(0.010)
105 – 1090.082**
(0.012)
110 – 1140.115**
(0.013)
115+0.155**
(0.009)
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Probability of re-default within 12 months
Variable
Change in
re-default rate
Reduction in monthly payment
(10%)
–0.044**
(0.002)
Local unemployment rate lagged 6-
months less average local rate
0.003
(0.003)
Current LTV:
100 – 1040.076**
(0.010)
105 – 1090.082**
(0.012)
110 – 1140.115**
(0.013)
115+0.155**
(0.009)
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Modification Programs and their Effects
Original Mod 1 Mod 2
House value $ 207,250 $ 169,945 $ 169,945
Mortgage balance $ 200,000 $ 200,000 $ 152,951
LTV 96.5 117.7 90.0
Interest rate 8.44% 5.60% 8.24%
Income $ 4,341 $ 4,341 $ 4,341
Taxes & insurance $ 207 $ 207 $ 207
Principal & interest $ 1,529 $ 1,148 $ 1,148
PITI $ 1,737 $ 1,355 $ 1,355
DTI 0.40 0.31 0.31
% decline in payment --- -25% -25%
DPr(Re-default, 12mo) --- -11.0% -26.5%
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Modification Programs and their Effects
Original Mod 1 Mod 2
House value $ 207,250 $ 169,945 $ 169,945
Mortgage balance $ 200,000 $ 200,000 $ 152,951
LTV 96.5 117.7 90.0
Interest rate 8.44% 5.60% 8.24%
Income $ 4,341 $ 4,341 $ 4,341
Taxes & insurance $ 207 $ 207 $ 207
Principal & interest $ 1,529 $ 1,148 $ 1,148
PITI $ 1,737 $ 1,355 $ 1,355
DTI 0.40 0.31 0.31
% decline in payment --- -25% -25%
DPr(Re-default, 12mo) --- -11.0% -26.5%
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Conclusions
Housing boom-bust cycle pushed many borrowers into negative equity
Absent increases in house prices, most will remain underwater for years
Possible effects include
Reduced mobility
Reduced maintenance of housing stock
Reduced participation in local public affairs
Loss of household wealth will be difficult to recover in medium term (3-5 years)
Doing so would imply large increases in already elevated savings rates
And reduced consumption
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Conclusions
Modification programs are becoming very important
Borrower equity remains important even after modification
An effective anti-foreclosure program would exploit this fact
How general are these results?
Limitations
Subprime only
Voluntary mods are selected
Hard to draw definitive conclusions about likely effect of HAMP
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END
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Reference Slides
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An example – effects of principal mod
(a) Mortgages and Modifications Original Modification 1 Modification 2
House value $ 181,818 $ 181,818 $ 181,818
Mortgage Balance $ 200,000 $ 200,000 $ 181,818
Interest rate 7.0% 4.8% 5.6%
Mortgage Principal, Interest, Taxes
and Insurance (PITI) $ 1,700 $ 1,382 $ 1,382
Monthly Income $ 4,474 $ 4,474 $ 4,474
DTI 38% 31% 31%
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An example – effects of principal mod
(b) Saving for a new down payment Original Modification 1 Modification 2
Borrower equity after 5 years* $ (3,822.83) $ (1,312.06) $ 13,387.86
Downpayment req'd to buy a house of
this price $ 36,363.64 $ 36,363.64 $ 36,363.64
Transactions costs @ 6% $ 10,909.09 $ 10,909.09 $ 10,909.09
Savings required to buy again in 5
years $ 51,095.55 $ 48,584.78 $ 33,884.86
Savings per month (5 years, assuming
1.6% interest rate) $ 818.55 $ 778.33 $ 542.84
"Full" housing cost to income ratio** 56.3% 48.3% 43.0%
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Equity at t
1 1[ ] [ ]
l lL L
t o tl lo oE HV M HV M
D D
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Table 5. Proportional hazard estimates of re-default
Cox proportional hazard
Step-function
proportional
hazard
Variable (1) (2) (3)
House price change in 12-months prior to
modification (10%)
0.027
(0.018)
0.027
(0.018)
House price index relative to 2000 average
(10%)
0.030**
(0.003)
0.030**
(0.003)
2-year variance in house price changes (1%)–0.005
(0.037)
–0.004
(0.037)
FICO at origination:
< 5600.126**
(0.022)
0.040*
(0.022)
0.040*
(0.022)
560 – 5890.112**
(0.022)
0.061**
(0.022)
0.061**
(0.022)
590 – 6190.052**
(0.021)
0.019
(0.021)
0.019
(0.021)
Missing0.216*
(0.117)
0.209*
(0.117)
0.209*
(0.117)
Months current in year prior to modification–0.050**
(0.003)
–0.050**
(0.003)
Full documentation at origination–0.201**
(0.016)
–0.152**
(0.017)
–0.152**
(0.017)
Age of mortgage (6 months)–0.077**
(0.004)
–0.078**
(0.004)
–0.078**
(0.004)
90+ delinquency rate in MSA (10%)0.082**
(0.011)
0.082**
(0.011)