New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

May 18, 2006

Regional Anatomy I Ken JIMBO

Regionalism in Asia-Pacific / East AsiaPolitical & Security Dimension

1) April 13 Overview and Introduction: What is Regionalism?

2) April 20 Regionalism & Regional Integration

3) April 27 Regionalism in Asia

4) May 11 East Asian Community and East Asian Summit

5) May 18 New Dynamics of Security in East Asia

Introduction: Understanding Asia-Pacific Security

Security Environment in Asia-Pacific European Theater and Asia Pacific Theater

Impact of the End of Cold War Strategic Circumstances US Engagement Rise of Multilateral Security Prevailing Double Track Approach

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia Strategic Circumstances US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

Warsaw PactWarsaw PactWarsaw PactWarsaw PactNATONATONATONATO

European Theater and Asia-Pacific TheaterEuropean Theater and Asia-Pacific Theater(During the Cold War)(During the Cold War)

Bilateral (Hub-Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) AlliancesSpokes) Alliances

Bilateral (Hub-Bilateral (Hub-Spokes) AlliancesSpokes) Alliances

European TheaterEuropean Theater

(Regional (Regional Approach)Approach)

European TheaterEuropean Theater

(Regional (Regional Approach)Approach)

Asian TheaterAsian Theater

(Bilateral Approach)(Bilateral Approach)

Asian TheaterAsian Theater

(Bilateral Approach)(Bilateral Approach)

Impact of the End of the Cold WarFour Dimension

In Europe… Dissolution of Warsaw Pact NATO Expansion European Security & Defense Policy (ESDP)

⇒ In Asia, Hub-Spokes Remain the Same! But …

Four Dimension Strategic Circumstances US Engagement Rise of Multilateral Security Prevailing Double Track Approach

Declining of Large Scale Threat Demise of East-West Confrontation Transformation of USSR

Rising Regional Agenda Korean Nuclear Crisis (1993-94) Taiwan Straits Tensions (1996)

End of the Cold War 1)

Strategic Circumstances

End of the Cold War 2)

US Military Engagement

Bush Sr. Administration (1989-1993) East Asian Strategic Initiative (EASI) 　　　 > Force Reduction Plan

Clinton Administration (1993-2000) East Asian Strategic Report I (EASR I,

1995) 　　 > US-Japan Alliance East Asian Strategic Report II (EASR II,

1998) 　　 > Comprehensive Engagement

End of the Cold War 3)

Rise of Multilateral Security

Track-I Framework ASEAN Regional Forum 　　　 (ARF <1994-present>)

Track-II Dialogues Council for Security Cooperation

in Asia Pacific (CSCAP) Northeast Asian Cooperation

Dialogue (NEACD)

US East Asian Regional SecurityEASI-I (1990)

US Department of Defense, A Strategic Framework for the Asian Pacific Rim: Looking toward the 21st Century. April 19, 1990.

“Our friends and allies in East Asia are reluctant to enter into multilateral consultation on security concern for a variety of reasons. Foremost is the wide cultural, political and economic diversity among most of the Asian states which makes bilateral security arrangements much more appropriate” 　　　　　　　　　　

―February 1990

US East Asian Regional SecurityEASR (1995)

US Department of Defense, The United States Security Strategy for East Asia-Pacific Region, February 1995

“Some in the United States have been reluctant to enter into regional security dialogues in Asia, but I see this as a way to supplement our alliances and forward military presence, not to supplant them” 　

―February 1995

Prevailing “Double Track Approach” (1995-2001?)

Alliance Mechanism

Deterrence/Response

CBM / Preventive Diplomacy

Cooperative SecurityUS-Japan Security AllianceUS-Korea Security Alliance

ARF

Korean PeninsulaTaiwan Straits

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia (2001-Present)

Strategic Circumstances

US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 1)

Strategic Circumstances

Rise of Asymmetrical Warfare Terrorist Networks Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD)

Lingering Traditional Risks Reloaded Korean Nuclear Crisis (2002-present) Taiwan Straits

Rise of China Rising Military Capability “Responsible Stakeholder”? (Robert Zoellick)

Traditional Risks Reloaded

North Korean Missile Range (status 1994)

Traditional Risks Reloaded

North Korean Missile Range (status 1998-)

Traditional Risks Reloaded

Proliferation RiskA.Q. Kahn’s Nuclear Black Market

Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR) 2001/05 Capability-Based Approach Static to Dynamic Defense Posture

Transformation of US Military and the Global Posture Review (GPR)

Reducing Size of US Forces Increase US Military Capability Enable Rapid Power Projection Regional-Global Forward Presence

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 2)

US Strategy and Engagement in East Asia

Japan-US Alliance: Toward ‘Global Alliance’ “Common Strategic Objective” on Regional /

Global Context Roles, Missions and Capabilities (RMC)

Sharing Relocation of US Bases in Japan

Korea-US Alliance: Constraint Transformation

Future of Alliance Initiatives > FOTA > SPI Reduction of 12,500 US Troops from DMZ

“Cooperative Autonomous Defense”

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 3)

Japan-US Alliance / Korea-US Alliance Renovated

Region-wide Security Mechanisms ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF) Shangri-la Dialogue

Sub-Regional Security Mechanisms Six-Party Talks Shanghai Cooperation Organization

(SCO) Various Types of Military Exercises

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)

Cooperative Security: Multi-Layered Cooperation

Counter- / Anti- Terrorism Cooperation

Proliferation Security Initiatives (PSI) Trafficking Controls / Information Sharing

Non-Traditional Security Cooperation SARS / Aviation Flu Anti-Piracy Cooperation Transnational Organized Crimes

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia 4)

Ad-hoc Functional Mechanisms

　 　 Members

Functions

Inclusive / Regional（ Geographical

Cooperation）

Exclusive / Functional（ Regional Security

Complex）

ForcefulCompetitive

(Deterrence/Response)

(Collective Security)

Japan-US Alliance　　　　

Korea-US Alliance

UnforcefulCooperative

（ CBM / PD ）

Shanghai Cooperation Organization

ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF)

Shangri-la Dialogue

Proliferation Security Initiative

Anti-Terrorism Cooperation

Non-Traditional Security

New Dynamics of Security in East Asia