new efficient solar photovoltaic deployment · 2018. 7. 23. · efficient solar photovoltaic...

Efficientsolarphotovoltaicdeployment

ByMouliVaidyanathan,PhD,PE,NABCEPPVCertified,CEM

PresidentSolarPodMouliEngineering

2018EnergyDesignConference&ExpoMNPower,Duluth,MN

February19-21,2018

Whydidthegardenerplantalightbulb?

Hethoughthewouldgetapowerplant!

Today’sagenda

• WhatisSolar• Solarinstallationcapacitiesbycountry• Largestsolarplants• DistributedGenerationvs.UtilityScaleGeneration• Solar+Storage• HowmuchSolar(GW)doweneedtobe100%Solar.

• StoragerequiredforSolar+Storage• Areaneededtobe100%solar.• Estimatedcosts• Rooftopsolar

• Transportationwithnoemissions• Summary

Whatissolar

• EnergyfromtheSun.

200916TWy/yr

205028TWy/yr

AnnualWorldEnergyConsumption

AnnualWorldEnergyConsumption

↑75%

200916TWy/yr

205028TWy/yr

Wind25-70TWy/yr

Hydro3-4TWy/yr

RenewablesperYear

SolarResourceisVeryAbundant…

Source:R.Perezetal,“RenewableEnergyOurSolarFuture”

↑75%AnnualWorldEnergy

Consumption`

200916TWy/yr

205028TWy/yr

↑75%Coal900

Uranium90-300

NaturalGas215

Oil240

FossilFuelReserves(TWy)

Solar23,000TWy/y

Whatissolar?

Whatissolar?(continued)

• Photovoltaic:Photontoelectronconversionthrusemiconductor.

• Questions:• IssolarsimilartoCoal?à CanyouplaceCoalplantonyourroof?• IssolarsimilartoNuclear?à Canyouplacenuclearplantonyourroof?• IssolarsimilartoNaturalGas?à Canyouplacenaturalgasplantonyourroof?• IssolarsimilartoHydro?à CanyouplaceHydroplantonyourroof?

Answer“NO”

Whatissolar?(continued)

• Conventionalgenerationtakesmanysquaremilesofland.• Shouldsolaralsotakemanysquaremilesofland?

Answer“NO”SolarPVprovidesthebestpossiblescenariofordistributedgeneration.

JapanandGermanyare#2and#3intotalinstalledSolar

OnewouldintuitivelythinkthelargesolarplantswillbeinChina,Japan,Germany,USAandItaly.

Solarbycountry

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Installedsolarbycountry

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

UnitedStatesTotal

ChinaTotal

IndiaTotal BrazilTotal

ChileTotal PakistanTotal

FranceTotal

SouthAfricaTotal

GermanyTotal

LargestSolarFarmsCapacity(MW)

Top50largestsolarplants– NoneinJapan&Germany

JapanandGermanyhavefocusedonDistributedGeneration.Hencenolargesolarplants.

Distributedvs.LargeScale

6km

6km

DistributedGeneration UtilityScaleGeneration

EnergyLoss

DistributedSolar• Theenergygeneratedonsiteisdirectlyconsumed• Zerotransmissionloss.

LargescaleSolar• Energygeneratedhastogothroughtransmissionlines.

Land

DistributedSolar• Noaddedlandcost• Useexistingroofinmostcases.• Useexistinglandnearfacility.

LargescaleSolar• Additionallandrequired.• Landtaxesareextra.• Zoning?• AnimalHabitationloss

Infrastructure

DistributedSolar• Solarenergygenerationisatnearorsamevoltageasconsumptionvoltage(120V,240V,or480V)• Noneedforadditionalinfrastructure.

LargescaleSolar• Energygeneratedhastobesteppeduptodistribution/transmissionandbackdowntoconsumptionvoltages.• Addedinfrastructurefordistribution/transmission.

Cansolargeneratebaselineload?

• Whatisbaselineload?• Day&Night?• Naturalcycles:• Winter,summer• Rain,snow,cloudandbluesky

• Wedoneedbaselinegeneration.

Jobs

• Localjobs• Smallbusinessparticipateinrooftopsolar

• Largescalejobs.• Mostly>200employees.

Summary• Solarisnotsimilartocoal,nuclear,naturalgasandhydro.• Solarprovidesuniqueopportunityindistributedgenerationbyusing

existingresources(landandinfrastructure).

Whydotransformershum?Theydon’tknowthewords!

Nextstepsforsolarphotovoltaic

• Solarcannotbegeneratedatnight.• Solarcannotbegeneratedduringsnow/rain.• Solargenerationislimitedwhensunhoursareshort(winter).

Solar+storage

• Solarisabundantinsummer.• Needwaystocapturetheabundance(storage).• Storagehastobe:• Environmentallyfriendly.

• Landuse• SufficientLife(Cyclestofailure)• Lowleakage.• Recyclable.• Cheap.• Safe.

Solar+storage

• Todaysolar+storageispossibleinremoteareaswherenewpowerlineshavetobeconstructed.

• Priceofsolar+storageiscomingdownandisbecomingfeasibleinmostinternationalmarketswherenewtransmissionlinesareneeded.

Let’sbringithometoMinnesota

• Whatwillsolar+storagelooklikeinMinnesota?

• Hopewecanworktogethertoseethistoreality!!

PresentGenerationCapacityinMNTable1.2016Summarystatistics(Minnesota)Item ValuePrimary energy sourceNet summer capacity (megawatts) 16,012

Electric utilities 11,617IPP & CHP 4,395Net generation (megawatthours) 59,478,753

Electric utilities 47,984,837IPP & CHP 11,493,915EmissionsSulfur dioxide (short tons) 26,693Nitrogen oxide (short tons) 27,953Carbon dioxide (thousand metric tons)

29,644

Sulfur dioxide (lbs/MWh) 0.9Nitrogen oxide (lbs/MWh) 0.9Carbon dioxide (lbs/MWh) 1,096Total retail sales (megawatthours) 66,546,492

Full service provider sales 66,546,492Energy-only provider salesDirect use (megawatthours) 1,240,242

Average retail price (cents/kWh) 9.99

Minnesota Electricity Profile 2016**

**FromEIA:https://www.eia.gov/electricity/state/minnesota/

Theutilitiesgenerateroughly11.6GW.

CapacityFactorofSolarinMN

• AsolarsysteminMinnesotaiswidelyacceptedtoproducebetween1150and1300kWhperkWperyear.

1100

1150

1200

1250

1300

1350

23-Dec-11 23-Dec-12 24-Dec-13 25-Dec-14 26-Dec-15 26-Dec-16 27-Dec-17 28-Dec-18

kWh/kW

/day

Date

TTY365daykWh/kW

MinneapolisConventionCenter600kWSolarSince2011

CapacityfactoristheamountofenergygeneratedbytheSuninagivenyear.

WhatisthecapacityfactorinMinnesota

• CapacityfactorisdefinedasthekWhperhourgeneration.• Oneyearhas8760hours.• ThesolargenerationinMinnesotawillhaveacapacityfactorof

1250÷ 8760=14.3%

Howmuchsolarwillbeneeded

• Ifwehaveacapacityof14.3%,tooffset12GWofgeneration,thesolarneededwouldbe

• 12GW÷ 14.3%=84GWofSolar

Howmuchfloorspaceisneeded

• 1MWrequires3acres.• Hence84GWwillrequire260,000acresor400sq.miles• Minneapolis/St.Paulis3000sq.mileshenceroughly1/7th theareaofMSP.

• MSPhasroughly1.4millionhomes**.• Ifallhomeshavesolaritcanproducetherequiredenergytooffset,chargeandloadthebaseloadcapacity.

**https://www2.census.gov/programs-surveys/ahs/2013/factsheets/ahs13-13_Minneapolis.pdf

Howmuchstorage

• Sincesolarisnotgoingtobepresentinthenighttime,cloudytimesandsnowtimes,storageisneededtobackupthesolar.

• Thebatteryneededisestimatedat2.5timessolargeneration,hence,• 84x2.5=210GWh

Totalestimatedcost

• 84GW@$1.5/Wà $126B• Storage@$0.2/Whà $42B

• Thereforeforatotalcostofnearly$200B,thepresentutilitygenerationcapacitycanbeoffsetusingsolar+Storage.

Whyiswindpowerpopular?Becauseithasalotoffans!

Whatnext

• Residential/Commercial/BuildingEnergywasestimatedat12GW.

• Transportationisanotherformof“Brown”energy.• Howcanwereducetransportation’s“Brown”energy?

Transportation

• Buildingsandhomesareabout30%.• Nearly40%ofemissionscomefromtransportation.• Heatingandcoolingisanother30%.• Tooffsettransportation,heatingandcoolingtheamountofrenewablegenerationhastobe3timesthatofBuildingandhomes.

Cancleanenergybeusedfortransport?

MouliEngineeringInc(c)June2018

Objectives

1. Understandhowautomobilescontributetoourcarbonfootprint.a. Modesoftransportationb. Averagemilestraveled.c. ICEngineCO2 emissions.d. CO2 fromtransportation.

2. UnderstandhowElectricvehiclecanreducecarbonfootprinta. EVemissionsfromconventionalcharging.b. EVvs.ICEngineemissionsc. Hybridvehicles.d. SolarPVforcharging


Conversionterms

• 1kWh=860kCal=860,000Calories

• 0.0007kWh=600Cal• Whenyouworkout600caloriesitsequivalenttousinga10WLEDbulbfor2.5minutes

• 1KWh=3413Btu

• 0.0007kWh=2.3Btu

Basics


SomeEnergyconversions

• 1gallongasoline=36kWh• 1lbofcoal=4.4kWh• 1lbofUranium=1.02x107 kWh• 1candybar=0.28kWh• 1AABattery=0.0003kWh

http://www.phy.syr.edu/courses/modules/ENERGY/ENERGY_POLICY/tables.htmlMouliEngineeringInc(c)June2018

CO2 Emissions

• Coal(1lbs)CO2 emission=2.1lbs/kWh

=0.96kg/kWh

• Gasoline(1Gal)CO2 emission=8.8kg/gal

• Diesel(1Gal)CO2 emission=10.1kg/gal

Emissions

1lbCO2 =0.3lbsofCMouliEngineeringInc(c)June2018

Treeconversion.

• TreeconversionofCO2.• 6CO2 +6H2O+sunlight--->C6H12O6 +6O2• C6H12O6 issugar(atmass,H=1,C=12,O=16)• 45%ofsugarisC

• 100lbsofatree,~45lbsisfromCarbonandtherestisWaterandresidualminerals.


TreetoFossilfuelrate

• Atreeweighsabout2tonsto10tons.• Anaveragelifeofatreeisabout75years.6tons÷ 75years = 80kgoftreeperyear.80kgoftree=36kgofCarbon

1treeabsorbs36kgofcarboneachyear.


TreetoFossilfuelrate

• Gasoline=8.8kg/galofCO2=2.5kg/galofCarbon

1GallonGasoline=2.5kgofCarbon

ThereforefromCarbon36kgfor1tree=15gallonsofgasoline


TreetoFossilfuelrateà Transportation• Americansdrive~20,000mpy@averageof25mpg

• Anduseabout800galperyear

Therefore800gal÷ 15gallons/tree=54trees/person/yr


FossilFuel

• Burningfossilfuelathighrates,weareputtingmorecarbonintotheatmospherethantheabilitytoconvert.


Conventional&CleanEnergy

• Conventional:• Coal(~2lbsofCO2 perkWh)• Nuclear• Hydro• LP:

• Gasoline(8.8kgofCO2 perkWh)• Diesel(10.1kgofCO2 perkWh)

• NaturalGas(~1.22lbsofCO2 perkWh)• Clean

• Hydro(Ifnolossfromflooding)• Solar(200Wpanelworksfor>2years)• Wind

Conventionalandcleanenergy.


Modesoftransportation• Walking• Boats• Animalassistedcart• Steamengine– train.• Ships– coalpowered.• Automobiles– cars,2and3wheelers.• Aircrafts– commercial,civil,military• Rockets

ü

ü

ü

XXXXü

Modesoftransportation


Milesperyearperperson

• America• Automobile– 20,000m/yr• Aircraft– 2,000m/yr• Train– 0/yr

• Europe/Japan• Automobile– 5000m/yr• Aircraft– 5m/yr• Train– 1000m/yr

• Restoftheworld• Automobile– 300m/yr• Aircraft– 5m/yr• Train– 5m/yr

7300kgofCO2

120kgofCO2

2500kgofCO2

Averagemilestraveled


ICEngineCO2 Emissions

• 20,000mpy• 25mpgvehicle=800gallons/year• CO2 emissions=800*8.8kg/gal=7.3tons/yearofCO2

CO2emissionofgasolinepergallon 8.8 kg/galCO2emissionofDieselpergallon 10.1 kg/galCoalCO2emission 2.117 lbs/kWhCoalCO2emission 0.962 kg/kWhPercentofCoalgeneratedpower 60% inMinnesotaLineenergyemission 0.577 kg/kWh

Assumptions:

ICEngineCO2emissions.


CO2emissionfromtransport– ICEngineAmerica• 7300kgCO2=2100kgofCarbon• 36kgofCarbonin1treeperyear.• 2100kg/36kg=54treesperperson/year

• 300MillionpeopleintheUS• 54trees/person/year• Willneed16Billiontrees/year.• EstimatesarethatUShasabout150Millionacresofforestand300tree/acre.=45BilliontreesintheUS

CO2 fromtransportation.


ElectricvehicleCO2Emissions- EV

• 20,000mpy• 3miles/kWh=6700kWh/year• CO2emissions=6700*0.96kg/kWh*60%coalinMN=3.9tons/year

ComparedtoGasolineà 7.3tons/yrforICEngines

CO2emissionofgasolenepergallon 8.8 kg/galCO2emissionofDieselpergallon 10.1 kg/galCoalCO2emission 2.117 lbs/kWhCoalCO2emission 0.962 kg/kWhPercentofCoalgeneratedpower 60% inMinnesotaLineenergyemission 0.577 kg/kWh

Assumptions:

MouliEngineeringInc(c)June2018EVareabouthalftheemissionsofICEngines

ICEngineandElectricvehicleCO2Emissions

CO2emissionofgasolenepergallon 8.8 kg/galCO2emissionofDieselpergallon 10.1 kg/galCoalCO2emission 2.117 lbs/kWhCoalCO2emission 0.962 kg/kWhPercentofCoalgeneratedpower 60% inMinnesotaLineenergyemission 0.577 kg/kWh

Assumptions: EVvs.ICEngineExample:30,000m/yrICEngine(50mpg)CO2emissions=5280kg/yrEV(3.4m/kWh)CO2emissions=5111kg/yr

ICEnginewith50mpg=3.4mile/kWhUnlesschargedbysolar


EnergygeneratedfromSolarPVinstallation&miles/yearforEV

kWofSolarInstallation

EnergyfromSolar/year(kWh)

3.2miles/kWh

miles/yr miles/day1 1224 3917 112 2448 7835 213 3673 11752 324 4897 15670 435 6121 19587 546 7345 23505 647 8569 27422 758 9794 31340 869 11018 35257 97

10 12242 39175 107

Example:Ifonedrives15,000miles/year,a4kWsolarsystemwilloffsetallfuelrequirements.


Costforsolartoday

TraditionalrooftopSolar Units

Systemsize 4000 WInstallationcost $3/W $/WSystemcost $12,000 $Rebates $3600 $Outofpocketcost $8,400 $Energyperyear 5000 kWhAnnual$savings $650 $/yrUtilityrate 0.13 $/kWhLifeofsystem 25 YearsMiles/kWh 3.2$/Mile $0.040 $

Solarcanreducecostandemissions.


Milesperyear 16000MilesperGallon 30$/Gallon $2.50$/Mile $0.083

CostforSolarasfuelforEV

• Solarcostcanbelowerfordriving.

• EVtypicallyhavelowermaintenancecost.

• Chargingisabigissueforanallelectricvehicle.


Summary

1. EVgivesabout3milesperkWh.2. Emissions

1. ICEngineautowith50mpg=EVwith3miles/kWh(withconventionalchg).2. SolarPVcanbeusedascleanenergycharging.


Summary– Takeawayfromtoday

• Mostefficientdeploymentofsolarisindistributedgeneration.

• UsingdistributedgenerationalargeportionofMinnesota’senergycanbeconvertedtosolar+storage.

à Needabout$200B

• Transportationcanalsobeconvertedtosolar.

• OperationalcostforsolarissignificantlylowerthanICengines.


Contact

[email protected]

612-424-5176SolarPodTM

MouliEngineeringInc.


TheEnvironmentisnota

spectatorsport


UsingGIS-basedmethodsandlidardatatoestimaterooftopsolartechnicalpotentialinUScitiesRobertMargolis1,PieterGagnon,JenniferMelius,CalebPhillipsandRyanElmoreStrategicEnergyAnalysisCenter,NationalRenewableEnergyLaboratory,901DStreet,SWSuite930,Washington,DC20024,United StatesofAmerica

• RooftopPV’sabilitytomeetestimatedelectricitydemandvarieswidely—• 16%ofdemand(inWashington,DC)to• 88%(inMissionViejo,CA)

• Assumptionsimportanttoresults• 20%vs.16%canchangePVgenerationby25%• Usingonlyrooftopsandnotincludinganyadjacentland(Backyard,etc.)

• ActualgenerationfromPVinurbanareasalsocouldexceedtheseestimatesifsystemswereinstalledonlesssuitableroofarea,PVweremountedoncanopiesoveropenspacessuchasparkinglots,orPVwereintegratedintobuildingfacades

new efficient solar photovoltaic deployment · 2018. 7. 23. · efficient solar photovoltaic...

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