new feedstocks and replacement fuels - future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0...

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New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future Energy for Mobility An Energy Company Perspective August 23, 2006 DEER Conference Detroit, MI BP Global Fuels Technology Dr. James Simnick, PhD

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Page 1: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future Energy for MobilityAn Energy Company Perspective

August 23, 2006 DEER Conference Detroit, MI

BP Global Fuels Technology Dr. James Simnick, PhD

Page 2: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Outline

• Challenges for Fuels

• Energy Resources and Security

• Energy Options

• Pathways

• Biomass to Fuels – Short Term

– Longer Term

• BP’s Biofuels Activity

• Fuels Perspective

Page 3: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

What are the challenges for fuels?

Three key drivers of sustainable mobility solutions

•Air quality – particularly in developing markets

•Energy diversification and supply security

•Climate change

Economics & customer preference set the pathway

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Heavy-duty diesel highway regulations force PM & NOx control PM

, g/

kW-h

r; ES

C te

st

NOx, g/kW-hr; ESC test

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0 1 2 3 4 5 6Euro VI 2010? DPF+NOx

Euro V 2008 SCR

Japan 2008? DPF+NOx

US2010 DPF+NOx

US2007 DPF+EGR

Euro III 2000 nothing

US2004 (2002) DOC

Euro IV 2005 SCR

Japan 2005 DPF

From Corning, Inc.

Page 5: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Energy resources & security ofsupply

• Transport sector dependent on oil

• Oil availability sufficient out to ~2030

• Gas reserves somewhat more geographically dispersed than oil

• Huge coal reserves aligned with demand centers

• Renewables have large theoretical potential and generally more dispersed

• Regional drivers vary widely (LAQ, Security, GHG)

Page 6: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

energy security - import dependence

Mb/d Oil bcm Natural gas

Importers

EU

US

Asian LNG (Japan, Korea Taiwan)

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 1993 1995 1997 1999

Russia ex FSU

Other Europe pipeline

Pacific/M E LNG

Exporters

2001 2003

Canada

Atlantic LNG

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15 US

Iraq

M E OPEC (excl Iraq)

Other Dev.

China

FSU

Importers

Exporters -150

-100

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

Page 7: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Climate change and GHGs

Projection of CO2 and Temperature to 2100

1950 2000 2050

14

7

CO

2 C

once

ntra

tions

, ppm

T0C

6400423000 -2200

1800 1900 2000 2100C

O2

Em

issi

ons

(Gt C

/yea

r)

700

600

500

Business as usual world CO2Global CO2

Global Temperaturesemissions growth scenario A world growth trajectory leading tostabilisation

Source: Based on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Page 8: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Options beyond Peak Oil

• Heavy Oil / Tar Sands – 300 billion barrels Canadian resource with current

economics

– 1 trillion barrels ultimate Canadian resource

– Venezuelan deposits comparable magnitude

• Shale Oil – US Resource Base 1.2 trillion barrels

– Renewed DOE and Shell publicity

• Fischer Tropsch Liquids – 1 Million BSD announced Gas to Liquids Projects in Qatar

– Wyoming / Rentech study of Coal to Liquids ($40 / bbl)

– China: Fischer Tropsch or DiMethyl Ether from Coal

Page 9: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Renewable Fuels Options

• Biomass – Direct conversion to liquids

– Gasification

• Food Crops – Sugar Based Ethanol

– Oil Based Biodiesel

• Renewable Hydrogen

Page 10: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

BP fuels pathway to the future

Zero carbon

Low carbon

Intensive carbon Fu

el te

chno

logy

/ GH

G e

mis

sion

redu

ctio

n

Vehicle Technology/ Time

Fuel Cell

Hybrid

Use of existing Fuel distribution infrastructure

new infrastructure

Internal Combustion Engine

Future biomass

carbon hydrogen

Conventional biocomponents

conversion

Clean conventional

increased dieselisation

Future evolution of technologies

fuels including

gasoline and diesel

Renewable or low

Page 11: New Feedstocks and Replacement Fuels - Future …...0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 7.0 Conventional Biofuels Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low carbon Hydrogen Lower Benefit, Lower

Cost for Substitution

WTW GHG Benefit vs. Cost %

GH

G B

enef

itvs

. Gas

olin

e/di

esel

bas

elin

es

High Benefit, Moderate Cost High Benefit, High Cost

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

€/100km

H2 from Natural Gas/fuel cell

H2 -combustion engine

FT Diesel Ex wood

GTL Diesel

0.5 2.5 7.01.0 3.5 3.02.01.5 4.0 4.5

Conventional Biofuels

Advanced Biofuels Renewable & low

carbon Hydrogen

Lower Benefit, Lower Cost

Reference-WTW Analysis of Future Automotive Fuels &

/European Commission Joint Research Centre

Biodiesel

Powertrains in the European Context-Version 2a,December 2005. Concawe/European Council for Automotive R&D

Ethanol sugar beet

6.56.0 7.5 5.55.0

Ethanol wheat

LC Ethanol Ex wood

RME

H2-Renewable fuel cell

8.0

CNG

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Biofuels Overview - the carbon cycle CO2

one carbon atom as CO2 removed from atmosphere during photosynthesis

Carbon in crop or

crop residue

-C-in cellulose/sugar/starch

Biomassgrowth

+

CO2

Same carbon returned to Atmosphere as CO2

-C--C- -C-in fuel molecules in fuel molecules

Processing to produce biofuel Biofuel Use in vehicle

WTW GHG emission result for biomass

= pathways. Contribution + from above closed cycle is zero

External energy and associated External energy and emissions External energy for GHG emissions for farming (eg from

fertiliser use) for fuel production process distribution & transportation

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Biofuels – Pathways

Ethanol for gasoline

Esters for diesel

sugar & starch crops oil crops

Other blend components or precursors

Further conversion

Superior Fuel Molecules

Lignocellulosics etc.

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Two technologies look to offer greatestpromise

Sugar Platform Biological Conversion

Low intensityBiomass

(waste, cellulosics )

Syngas Platform FT or other conversion

Fuel

Molecules

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Fuels that can be produced from domestic, renewable resources in high volume and reasonable

Fuels that can be used in existing vehicles and existing infrastructure

Fuels that offer good value to consumers

Fuels that meet the evolving demands of vehicles

What is needed?

33Fuels that can be produced from domestic, renewable resources in high volume and

cost.reasonable cost.

33Fuels that can be used in existing vehicles and existing infrastructure

33Fuels that offer good value to consumers

33Fuels that meet the evolving demands of vehicles

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BP’s Biofuels Activity Europe

• British Sugar plant in UK for biobutanol production •First major to introduce 5% FAME blend in Germany • Across Europe ETBE replaces MTBE •EBI Institute University TBD

Indiaof B2B, evaluating more $9.4M project of

•EBI Institute University TBD Jatropha “oil bearing •E85 introduction in selected

•Supplying Ethanol crops” for diesel fuel

US • Largest user of Ethanol in gasoline • 20 new markets added in

• Biodiesel to small number

markets by end of 2006

to retail sites in QLD

widespread customer offer

Asia •Round table sustainPalm Oil

ANZ

•Renewable diesel via tallow

a

2005

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BP’s New Biofuels Business

• Formed a new Biofuels business in June • Announced plans to invest $500 M in new

Energy Biosciences Institute to provide apipeline of biofuels technology for thebusiness

• Will partner with science company DuPont to develop advanced biofuels-the first introduction is biobutanol.

• BP & DuPont collaborating with British Sugar to convert an ethanol fermentation facility to produce biobutanol

• Initial production targeted in the UK during 2007

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Fuels Perspective

• Need consumer’s acceptance – Reliable, consistent, convenient – Cost-Effective – Quality & Fit for Purpose

• Societal Requirements – Energy efficient, wells-to-wheels analysis – Low carbon/no carbon, reduce GHG – Impact on environment

– Air – Water – Soil

– Safe – Infrastructure – Vehicle requirements

– Systems Approach – Fuel + Vehicle + Engine + After treatment

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Public Policy Framework

• Focus on goals

– Give the market room to develop innovative solutions

• Emphasize solutions that can be used in existing vehicles and delivered through existing infrastructure

– These will provide the quickest results at the lowest cost

• Make room for innovation

– Yesterday’s molecules may not be the best answer for today’s vehicles

– Research can produce improved solutions for tomorrow – but only if they are allowed room to compete in the marketplace

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Conclusion

• BP sees an exciting and challenging future – Continuous improvement in conventional vehicles, engines

& fuels

– New opportunities in Alternative Fuels

– Biomass based – Sugar & Gasification – New Molecules

– Route to hydrogen

– Work with USDOE and European Governments

– Customer requirements