new fhwa vmt forecasts implications for local planning
TRANSCRIPT
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Presented by
New FHWA VMT Forecasts&
Implications for Local Planning
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Presented by
Post-Apocalyptic ZombiesAte
Oregon’s Post-RecessionATR Regression
or…
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Outline
• US Vehicle Miles Travelled History• FHWA Revised Forecasts & National VMT Experience • Oregon VMT Experience METRO VMT Trends – Portland Urban Area
• ATR Data Use In Local Transportation Plans 2006/2010 McMinnville TSP Example OR 99W Corridor / METRO Urban Area Context
• Cross-Willamette Valley Count Examples Historic Trends FHWA Forecast Implications
• Updating Local Transportation System Plans
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Presented byUS VMT History
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US VMT History
Source: FHWA (2014) | Federal Reserve Bank – Economic Data
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US VMT Trends/Estimates
Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
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US VMT Trends/Estimates
Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
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US VMT Trends/Estimates
US DOT C&P Reports – by year reported
Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
US
VM
T in
Tril
lions
US VMT Growth Peaked and Flattened Before 2008 Recession
Rece
ssio
n
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US VMT Estimates
Suggested Options for Study from Skeptics
Source: USPIRG, 2014
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FHWA Findings | VMT per Capita TrendDue to more than rising gas prices (current prices as exception)
Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
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FHWA Findings
Revised VMT/Capita Trend Forecasts due to……..
Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information - Travel Monitoring
Life Cycle Effects Aging population Declining per-capita income
Period Movements Economic downturns
Growth Management Policies
Social Trends Women-in-the-workforce Millennials
Technology
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FHWA Findings | VMT per Capita Trend
Source: FHWA, Office of Highway Policy Information , US Census
Rece
ssio
n
Rece
ssio
n
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FHWA Findings | Household Income Trends
Source: US Census
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Presented byFHWA Revised Forecasts
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New (December, 2014) FHWA VMT Forecasts
Baseline Forecasts of VMT Growth
Alternative(s)
Compound Annual Growth Rates
Vehicle Class 2012-2032(20-year)
2012-2042(30-year)
Light-Duty Veh 0.98% 0.67%
Single-Unit Truck 1.46% 1.16%
Combination Truck 1.75% 1.60%
Total 1.04% 0.75%
Compound Annual Growth Rates
Vehicle Class 2012-2032(20-year)
2012-2042(30-year)
Pessimistic 0.94% 0.69%
Baseline 1.04% 0.75%
Optimistic 1.14% 0.82%
Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
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FHWA VMT Forecasts
Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
ActualOptimisticBaselinePessimistic
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Presented byNational VMT Trends
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State-by-State Comparison: VMT per Capita
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
11000
12000
13000
1400019
80
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
VMT
per C
apita
Georgia
Florida
Ohio
Texas
Colorado
California
Oregon
Washington
Source: FHWA – Office of Highway Policy Information, May 2014
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Annual VMT Per-Capita - 2011
Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013
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Percent Change in VMT Per-Capita: 2005-2011
Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013
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National VMT Variation – Key Factors
Source: CoPIRG, Phinaes Baxendall, 2013
Additional research suggests declining VMT Per-Capita does not correspond with how badly states suffered economically in the last recession: Millennials
87% of 19-year olds had divers license in 1983; 69% in 2011
More likely increased urban density rather than increased urbanization (state-by-state correlation)
No strong trend linking economic growth or stagnation and VMT per-capita trend Per-capita VMT decline began prior to recession Driving per person stagnated in the mid-2000’s while GDP climbed
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Presented byState VMT Policy & Trends
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Washington
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Washington VMT Modeling Refinement (2014)
Prior forecast model results were not consistent witho Near-term trend
in statewide traffic
o National trends in traffic
o Current VMT research showing flattening of VMT
Consistently over-forecasted VMT
Source: WSDOT
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Colorado
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Colorado VMT Policy
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Oregon
~9,400 (US Ave)
~8,400
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Oregon VMT & Median Income History
Source: ODOT, Transportation Development, US CensusRe
cess
ion
Rece
ssio
n
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Oregon VMT
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Billions of Annual VMT
Oregon State Highway VMT
History
Actual
2005 OTPForecast
2014 FHWAForecast
Source: (1) VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development, (2) 2005 OTP Update, (3) FHWA, 2014
1
2
3
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Oregon VMT History
Source: FHWA (2014) | Federal Reserve Bank – Economic Data
Oregon is Urbanizing …..and densifying
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Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise
Pre-Recession: 1980-2007
VMT on Oregon State Highways,
By County
Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
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Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise
The Slow-Down: 2000-2007
VMT on Oregon State Highways,
By County
Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
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Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise
Recession: 2008-2009
VMT on Oregon State Highways,
By County
Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
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Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise
Post Recession: 2009-2013
VMT on Oregon State Highways,
By County
Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
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Check, Back-Check, Assess & Advise
To Date: 1980-2013
VMT on Oregon State Highways,
By County
Source: VMT Data - ODOT, Transportation Development,
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METRO VMT Trends/Forecasts
Source: METRO
11.5
13.5
15.5
17.5
19.5
21.5
23.5
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
Daily
Veh
icle
Mile
s of T
rave
l per
Cap
ita
Calculation of DVMT/ Person: The daily travel and population figures from Portland, OR are gathered for the FHWA by the State's HPMS programs . The total travel is divided by the total population to equal the DVMT per person.
For 2013: Area Travel (Miles) Population DVMT/ Person
Portland 28,574,727 1,540,000 = 18.56
U.S. National Average
Portland, 3-County Urban Area
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ATR Data Usein
Local Transportation Plans
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ATR Data Use in Future Traffic Forecasts
Establish 20-Year Planning Horizon Traffic Estimates Estimate External Station, 20-Year Traffic Estimates
Urban Area / Travel Demand Model
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ATR Data Use in Transportation Planning
Traffic Forecast Needs Assessment
CIP Funding Plan / $$ Search
Street Bond
SDC
Other
Gas Tax
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ODOT Region 2 | 2006 McMinnville TSP Est
Source: McMinnville TSP Analysis (2006), ODOT Website, Transportation Development
Newberg
Sherwood
Wilsonville
Tualatin
Tigard
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ODOT Region 2 | 2006 McMinnville TSP Est
Source: McMinnville TSP Analysis (2006), ODOT Website, Transportation Development
Newberg
Sherwood
Wilsonville
Tualatin
Tigard
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PDX Cordon ADT History
Source: ODOT Website, Transportation Development
Newberg
McMinnville
Rainier
Forest Grove
Woodburn
Canby
Sandy
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PDX City Populations: Southwest
Source: Portland State University, Population Research Center
Average Annual Population IncreasePre-Recession (1990 – 2008) Post-Recession (2009 – 2014)
Exurban
Suburban
UGB
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Cross-Willamette Valley Count Examples
Check, Back-check & Assess
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Comparing North Willamette Valley ATR Trends
OR 99W - Newberg
Center / Marion St. Bridges
OR 18 - Valley Jct.
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History: 1977-2013
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1977-2007 AAGR
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1987-2007 AAGR
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1997-2007 AAGR
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1993-2013 AAGR
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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2000-2013 AAGR
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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FHWA Forecast: 1993-2013
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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Compare: 1987-2007
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1987-2007 Trend
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1993-2013
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1993-2013 Trend
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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1993-2013 Trend & FHWA Forecast
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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Compare Trends
Source: ODOT website, Transportation Development,
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Presented byUpdating Local TSPs
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McMinnville TSP Updating: IAMP & Travel Model Growth Assumptions
Update OR 99W/18
IAMP
Update McMinnville
Travel Demand Model -External Station Growth
Assumptions
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Updating Hwy 18/99W IAMP
-0.61%
Assumes Full Development
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Findings
Oregon urbanization continuing to affect regional and localized travel patterns Six D’s, mainly density & high quality transit in urban areas Economic and demographic shifts
Most local, recent traffic data trends roughly align with FHWA’s VMT forecast
Continue examination of annual counts and local land use context
Revise, update or replace outdated trends and model data, particularly in non-MPO areas
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