new industrial revolution and implications for the labor force and universities
TRANSCRIPT
September 2017 #digiradet
Halloween in Nashville, 1974 2016
If the rate of change on the outside (of an organization)
exceeds the rate of change on the inside, the end is near....
-Jack Welch
Digital is the main reason
just over half the Fortune 500 companies
have disappeared since the year 2000.
-Pierre Nanterme, CEO Accenture, 2016
Yet..Digital disruption
has only just begun.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
Decline in routine jobs, even after recovery
H. Siu (Univ of BC) & N. Jaimovich (Duke Univ), 2015
The commodification of banking
In 2000, the U.S. cash equities trading desk at Goldman Sachs’s New York headquarters
employed 600 traders, buying and selling
stock for large clients.
Today there are just 2 traders left.
http://www.nanalyze.com/2017/02/artificial-intelligence-investment-banking/
If replace 1000 workers with
one more robot
Data from 1990 to 2007 in the USA
1) Employment to population
ratio down by 0.18-0.34 PPt
2) Wages down by 0.25-0.50%
D. Acemoglu (MIT) & P. Restrepo (Boston Univ), Robots and Jobs: Evidence from US Labor Markets 2017, Natl Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper.
All jobs have been created within non-routine
Food serviceHousekeeper
ProgrammersData scientist
Jobs that did not exist in 2006
App developer
Social media manager
Uber driver
Driverless car engineer
Cloud computing specialist
Big data analyst/data scientist
Sustainability manager
YouTube content creators
Drone operators
Millennial generational expert
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2016/06/10-jobs-that-didn-t-exist-10-years-ago/
All our knowledge is about the past, but all our strategic decisions are about the future.
What we don’t know we don’t know
about the future
What we know
What we know we don’t know
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years
and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”
- Bill Gates, The Road Ahead, 1996
2015
Food deliveries
Check-in
PortersCleaningLawnmowingConciergeRoom Service
Olli - 3D printed autonomous vehicle with IBM Watson
https://www.3dprintingbusiness.directory/news/local-motors-prepares-serial-production-ollie-3d-printed-smart-vehicles/
Rethinkery enables the AI CEO through“work looking for people” on Upwork
“Flash organization” created with Foundry staffing Upwork freelancers
Valentine et al., 2017, http://hci.stanford.edu/publications/2017/flashorgs/flash-orgs-chi-2017.pdf
http://marketrealist.com/2016/01/fourth-industrial-revolution-need-know/
FIRM FOUNDED EMPLOYEES MKT CAP
BMW 1916 122,000 $56B
UBER 2009 7,000 $62B
MARRIOTT 1927 200,000 $32B
AIRBNB 2008 5,000 $21B
WALT DISNEY 1923 185,000 $172B
FACEBOOK 2004 15,000 $369B
WALMART 1962 2,300,000 $206B
ALIBABA 1999 36,000 $241B
Adapted from Parker & Van Alstyne, with Choudary, 2016, and updated January 2017
Something fundamental is changing
Platform-based business models
Enabling interactions among “strangers”
Trading one job for a number of “gigs”…
“Third Places” and co-working spaces
• Automation• Globalization• Rising
productivity of select few
-Ryan Avent
Increasing social responsibility
An increasing abundance of
labor
The role of universities?
Digitalizing the Investor network
Community platform
Hierarchical firmVS
E.g., Microsoft~ Created by employees within
organizational boundaries
E.g., Automattic~ Created by community collaborators
regardless of affiliation
Teigland, Di Gangi, & Yetis 2012
The Flipped Firm: New model of value creation?
Tremendous progress
Knowledge through MOOCs (Massively Open Online Courses)
What progress is this?
https://sv.wikipedia.org/wiki/Handelsh%C3%B6gskolan_i_Stockholms_historia
Changes in the top 10 skills
https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-manage-robots-and-people-working-together-1433301051
Learning soft skills
Facilitating innovation at a makerspace atGeorgia Institute of Technology
https://smartech.gatech.edu/bitstream/handle/1853/53813/a_review_of_university_maker_spaces.pdf
Exploitation
Improving existingvalue creation
activities
Exploration
Developing newvalue creation
activities
Adapted from March 1991
Robin [email protected]
www.slideshare.net/[email protected]
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