European  Forward  Looking  Ac3vi3es:    Insights  for  Building  the  Future  of  Innova4on  Union  and  ERA    

Dr  Tim  Jones  -­‐  3  March  2011  

The  Future  Agenda  is  the  world’s  largest  open  foresight  programme  that  ran  throughout  2010  and  engaged  expert  input  from  over  140  countries  to  gain  a  unique  global  view  

Future  Agenda   Future  Agenda  

52  insights  on  the  world  in  2020  across  six  key  areas  are    being  used  by  companies  around  the  world  –  today  we  have  are  looking  at  how  a  few  of  these  apply  to  EU  innovaFon  

Today  we  are  using  a  few  of  these  to  sFmulate  some  thoughts   Future  Agenda  Insights  

By  2020  we  will  add  another  750m  people  to  the  planet,    most  in  places  least  able  to  accommodate  them  

Imbalanced  PopulaFon  Growth   CertainFes  

We  will  see  economic,  physical  and  poliFcal  shortages  of  key  materials  that  will  result  in  major  changes  in  perspecFves  

Key  Resource  Constraints   CertainFes  

The  centre  of  gravity  of  global  wealth  is  shiRing    East  with  decreased  influence  for  the  US  and  Europe  

Asian  Wealth  ShiR   CertainFes  

We  will  be  connected  everywhere  -­‐  everything  that  can    benefit  from  a  network  connecFon  will  have  one  

Ubiquitous  Data  Access   CertainFes  

PuXng  other  insights  through  the  ‘EU  lens’  5  major  innovaFon  challenges  for  the  next  decade  are  evident  

5  InnovaFon  Challenges  

5  Challenges  for  2020  

With  diabetes  consuming  5%  of  GDP  a  combinaFon  of    fat  taxaFon,  paFent  data  mining  and  personal  budgets    

will  play  a  role  in  stabilising  the  obesity  epidemic  

Diabesity   Health  

How  can  Europe  take  a  lead  in  ‘sFck  and  carrot’  innovaFon  that  changes  behaviours  and  uses  new  technologies  to  

reduce  consumpFon  and  calorific  intake  globally?  

EaFng  Be]er   Challenge  #1  

A  wealthier,  healthier  older  generaFon  increasingly    engage  in  more  acFve  lives,  having  extended  careers    

and  becoming  more  poliFcally  involved  

AcFve  Elderly   Happiness  

How  can  we  double  our  producFvity  in  the  next  20  years      -­‐  but  without  increasing  resource  consumpFon?  

Increasing  ProducFvity   Challenge  #2  

As  informaFon  is  shared  globally  and  insight  is  commodiFzed,  the  best  returns  go  to  those  who  can    produce  non-­‐standard,  differenFated  knowledge  

DifferenFated  Knowledge   Wealth  

With  more  free  agents  and  outsourcing,  non-­‐core    funcFons  within  organisaFons  are  interchangeable    

and  easily  rebuilt  around  value-­‐creaFng  units    

Corporate  LEGO   Security  

In  a  fully  fla]ened  world  without  IP,  how  will  Europe  collaborate  to  create  know-­‐how  that  others  will  pay  for?  

CreaFng  Value  Without  IP   Challenge  #3  

Consumers  are  incenFvised  to  use  significantly    less  energy  as  escalaFng  growth  in  carbon  emissions    

force  uFliFes  to  change  their  business  models  

Less  Energy   Wealth  

How  can  we  help  India  and  China  to  level  out  demand  at    <100  GJ/capita  and  reduce  our  consumpFon  to  match?  

Using  Less   Challenge  #4  

Increasing  governmental  focus  on  energy  security    and  climate  change  drives  the  uptake  of  large-­‐scale    

solar  as  the  leading  renewable  supply  

Solar  Sunrise   Security  

How  can  we  accelerate  the  uptake  of  solar  and  take  the    lead  role  in  the  provision  of  the  key  global  technologies?  

Leading  Light   Challenge  #5  

And,  finally,  in  whatever  we  do,  to  have  the  greatest    impact  we  need  to  have  strong  collaboraFon    

Moderators  of  Change  

For  more  insights  and  free  e-­‐book  please  see  the  website    Dr  Tim  Jones  –  Programme  Director  

<m.jones@futureagenda.org        +44  780  1755  054