New Models: Higher Quality/Lower Cost/ Less Time

June 9th, 2010

Source: Seattle Times, Tuesday, January 26, 2010

A look into the future

The Four Forces

1. Demographic Booms and Busts

2. Relative Labor Market status of H.S. and College Graduates

3. Fixed Technology Industry in a Dynamic Economy

4. Fiscal Competition with Health Care

Can you survive until 2020?

Key Facts:

• Number of 18-24 year olds will remain roughly constant. Suppose enrollment does too.

• Expenditures per student in public higher education have risen 2 percent per year faster than inflation historically.

• Instructional and other educational expenditures in public higher

education: $151 billion.

• Expected rise in real costs over 10 years: $30 billion.

Just to maintain current net tuition levels and enrollment, you need

an additional $30 billion in state appropriations in 2020.

Is that likely?

• Over past decade, state appropriations for higher education 2%.

• State and local health care expenditures are expected to rise by $103 billion over the next decade!

$30 billion from states seems implausible.

So, what can you do?

• Continue to raise tuition?

$30 billion increase would represent a rough doubling of net tuition.

• Continue to raise class sizes and hire adjunct faculty?

The 2% annual increase already assumes that.

• Lower quality and restrict access?

Even more?

So where does this leave us?

• If significant new funding is implausible…

• If failing to meet our aspirations is not acceptable…

• If continuous improvement is necessary, but not sufficient…

• …Then aggressively pursuing new models is an imperative.

Let’s go look at the year 2020

10

Voices from the future

“Futurists”   •Bob Mendenhall, Western Governors University•Candace  Thille, Carnegie Mellon Open Learning Initiative •Cable Green, Washington State Board of Community and Technical Colleges

“Realists”•Andrew Kelly, American Enterprise Institute•Larry Isaak, Midwestern Higher Education Compact•Ann Randazzo, Center for Energy Workforce Development

11

Questions for table discussion

1. What new models have the most potential to contribute to dramatic improvements in postsecondary attainment?

2. What are the most promising strategies to overcoming entrenched resistance?

3. What state or federal policy actions would have the greatest impact on new model creation and expansion?

4. What actions can I take on Monday morning to continue this conversation?