New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:

Issues and Opportunities

Welcome

Upcoming EBC Meetings

Nov 6 - Env. Industry Forecast w/ Paul ZofnassNov 8 - Ira Leighton USEPA Update in RINov 14 - EPA VOC Control/Stack Testing

Workshop at EPA Lab in ChelmsfordNov 15 - Tour of PSNH Wood Burner Nov 28 - Risk Assessment/Risk Mgmt ProgramNov 30 - An Evening with CT DEP

Commissioner Gina McCarthy Dec 6 – Winter Garden Party in Boston

EBC Mission Statement

The mission of the Environmental Business Council of New England, Inc. is to advance and promote the environmental and energy services and technology businesses in New England.

• Provides programs on current legislative, regulatory, and technology developments that shape the future of the environmental/energy industry

• Provides direct access to regulators and industry leaders to discuss developing issues

• Offers networking and business development opportunities for its members

• Supports and promotes sustainable environmental policies and practices for business and government

• Fosters the development of future generations of the industry through academic partnerships and mentoring and training opportunities

• Provides access to market research

Scale of The Challenge• For 1 GtC reduction in 2050

– 1000 MW electrics with CO2 capture (800)

– 1000 MW nuclear stations (700)– 1 MW wind turbines (1 million)– Double fuel economy of cars (2 billion)

. . . None economic & accepted today . . .

• To achieve any target now discussed– Price (& regulatory) penalty on CO2 emissions

– Technology advance to lower the cost of low-CO2 energy supply and use of energy services

. . . Only policy involving BOTH will work . . .

New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:

Issues and Opportunities

Kenneth Hughey

New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:

Issues and Opportunities

Jay Scheffer, Conference Chair

New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:

Issues and Opportunities

Keynote Presentation

David Ropeik

Nuclear Power

Public Fears – Perception and Reality

Bounded RationalityBounded Rationality

When we don’t have all the time, all When we don’t have all the time, all

the information, or all the “smarts” the information, or all the “smarts”

we need to make a completely we need to make a completely

fact-based analytical decision.fact-based analytical decision.

When we don’t have all the time, all When we don’t have all the time, all

the information, or all the “smarts” the information, or all the “smarts”

we need to make a completely we need to make a completely

fact-based analytical decision.fact-based analytical decision.

RISK PERCEPTION RISK PERCEPTION FACTORSFACTORS

Psychological factors by which Psychological factors by which

we gauge what to be afraid of and we gauge what to be afraid of and

how afraid to be.how afraid to be.

The The characteristicscharacteristics of a risk, of a risk,

apart from the factsapart from the facts..

Psychological factors by which Psychological factors by which

we gauge what to be afraid of and we gauge what to be afraid of and

how afraid to be.how afraid to be.

The The characteristicscharacteristics of a risk, of a risk,

apart from the factsapart from the facts..

1. TRUST1. TRUST

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Anything connected with industryAnything connected with industry• Communications from politiciansCommunications from politicians

• A decision making process that’s closedA decision making process that’s closed

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Anything connected with consumer groupsAnything connected with consumer groups

• Communications from neutral experts (doctors, Communications from neutral experts (doctors, academics)academics)

• A decision making process that’s openA decision making process that’s open

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Anything connected with industryAnything connected with industry• Communications from politiciansCommunications from politicians

• A decision making process that’s closedA decision making process that’s closed

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Anything connected with consumer groupsAnything connected with consumer groups

• Communications from neutral experts (doctors, Communications from neutral experts (doctors, academics)academics)

• A decision making process that’s openA decision making process that’s open

1. TRUST1. TRUST

• In the communicatorIn the communicator• In the organization that’s supposed In the organization that’s supposed

to protect youto protect you• In the organization creating the In the organization creating the

riskrisk• In the processIn the process

• In the communicatorIn the communicator• In the organization that’s supposed In the organization that’s supposed

to protect youto protect you• In the organization creating the In the organization creating the

riskrisk• In the processIn the process

2. HARM 2. HARM V. V. BENEFITBENEFIT

• Vaccinations, medical X rays, Vaccinations, medical X rays, prescription drugsprescription drugs• Lawn chemicalsLawn chemicals• Using a mobile phone while you driveUsing a mobile phone while you drive

• Vaccinations, medical X rays, Vaccinations, medical X rays, prescription drugsprescription drugs• Lawn chemicalsLawn chemicals• Using a mobile phone while you driveUsing a mobile phone while you drive

3. CONTROL3. CONTROL (ability to influence events (ability to influence events

as they occur)as they occur)

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Riding as a passenger in the front seat of Riding as a passenger in the front seat of

a motor vehiclea motor vehicle• A process in which you can NOT A process in which you can NOT

participateparticipate

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Driving a motor vehicleDriving a motor vehicle• A process in which you CAN participateA process in which you CAN participate

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Riding as a passenger in the front seat of Riding as a passenger in the front seat of

a motor vehiclea motor vehicle• A process in which you can NOT A process in which you can NOT

participateparticipate

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Driving a motor vehicleDriving a motor vehicle• A process in which you CAN participateA process in which you CAN participate

4. CHOICE4. CHOICE(is the risk (is the risk voluntaryvoluntary or or imposedimposed))

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Food with a potentially harmful ingredient NOTFood with a potentially harmful ingredient NOT listed on the labellisted on the label• The The government choosesgovernment chooses your town for a nuclear your town for a nuclear waste repositorywaste repository

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on the label the label • INVITINGINVITING the government to locate the nuclear the government to locate the nuclear waste repository in your townwaste repository in your town

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Food with a potentially harmful ingredient NOTFood with a potentially harmful ingredient NOT listed on the labellisted on the label• The The government choosesgovernment chooses your town for a nuclear your town for a nuclear waste repositorywaste repository

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on the label the label • INVITINGINVITING the government to locate the nuclear the government to locate the nuclear waste repository in your townwaste repository in your town

5. NATURAL 5. NATURAL V.V. HUMAN-MADE HUMAN-MADE

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides)Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides)• Technologies (GM food, nuclear power)Technologies (GM food, nuclear power)• TerrorismTerrorism

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Organic foods and pesticidesOrganic foods and pesticides• Herbal remediesHerbal remedies• Severe weatherSevere weather

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides)Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides)• Technologies (GM food, nuclear power)Technologies (GM food, nuclear power)• TerrorismTerrorism

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Organic foods and pesticidesOrganic foods and pesticides• Herbal remediesHerbal remedies• Severe weatherSevere weather

6. DREAD6. DREAD

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Anything associated with radiation (cancer)Anything associated with radiation (cancer)• Pesticides (cancer)Pesticides (cancer)• Plane CrashPlane Crash

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)• FluFlu• Food poisoningFood poisoning

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• Anything associated with radiation (cancer)Anything associated with radiation (cancer)• Pesticides (cancer)Pesticides (cancer)• Plane CrashPlane Crash

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.)• FluFlu• Food poisoningFood poisoning

7. CATASTROPHIC or 7. CATASTROPHIC or CHRONICCHRONIC

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• TerrorismTerrorism• Plane crashesPlane crashes• Nuclear “disaster”Nuclear “disaster”

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart diseaseHeart disease• Motor vehicle crashesMotor vehicle crashes• Air pollution from fossil fuelsAir pollution from fossil fuels

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• TerrorismTerrorism• Plane crashesPlane crashes• Nuclear “disaster”Nuclear “disaster”

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart diseaseHeart disease• Motor vehicle crashesMotor vehicle crashes• Air pollution from fossil fuelsAir pollution from fossil fuels

8. UNCERTAINTY8. UNCERTAINTY(When we (When we don’t have all the answersdon’t have all the answers, or , or

we have them but we have them but don’t understand themdon’t understand them.).)(More Afraid)(More Afraid)

• New technologiesNew technologies• TerrorismTerrorism• Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals, Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals,

GM foods)GM foods)• Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical & Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical &

magnetic fields, fossil fuels.magnetic fields, fossil fuels.

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• New technologiesNew technologies• TerrorismTerrorism• Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals, Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals,

GM foods)GM foods)• Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy)

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical & Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical &

magnetic fields, fossil fuels.magnetic fields, fossil fuels.

9. ME 9. ME OROR THEM THEM

• Terrorism to Americans in “The HoTerrorism to Americans in “The HoMEMEland” land” after September 11, 2001 after September 11, 2001

• Radiation from power lines when such a line Radiation from power lines when such a line is installed near is installed near youryour home home

• HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups.HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups.

• Terrorism to Americans in “The HoTerrorism to Americans in “The HoMEMEland” land” after September 11, 2001 after September 11, 2001

• Radiation from power lines when such a line Radiation from power lines when such a line is installed near is installed near youryour home home

• HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups.HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups.

10. FAMILIAR 10. FAMILIAR V. V. NEWNEW

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year oneWest Nile Virus in year one• Terrorist attacks in AmericaTerrorist attacks in America• Avian influenza (H5N1)Avian influenza (H5N1)

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year two, three….West Nile Virus in year two, three….• Terrorist attacks in IsraelTerrorist attacks in Israel• ““Regular” InfluenzaRegular” Influenza

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year oneWest Nile Virus in year one• Terrorist attacks in AmericaTerrorist attacks in America• Avian influenza (H5N1)Avian influenza (H5N1)

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• West Nile Virus in year two, three….West Nile Virus in year two, three….• Terrorist attacks in IsraelTerrorist attacks in Israel• ““Regular” InfluenzaRegular” Influenza

11. CHILDREN11. CHILDREN

• Plastics in children’s toysPlastics in children’s toys• AbductionAbduction• Pollution problems in schoolsPollution problems in schools

• Plastics in children’s toysPlastics in children’s toys• AbductionAbduction• Pollution problems in schoolsPollution problems in schools

12. PERSONIFICATION12. PERSONIFICATION

• Fear of child abduction rises Fear of child abduction rises when there is when there is a specific case in the newsa specific case in the news

• Fear of war rises after we see Fear of war rises after we see pictures of pictures of the dead and injuredthe dead and injured

• Concern about medical errors increases Concern about medical errors increases when we learn of when we learn of a specific victim of a a specific victim of a doctor’s mistakedoctor’s mistake

• Fear of child abduction rises Fear of child abduction rises when there is when there is a specific case in the newsa specific case in the news

• Fear of war rises after we see Fear of war rises after we see pictures of pictures of the dead and injuredthe dead and injured

• Concern about medical errors increases Concern about medical errors increases when we learn of when we learn of a specific victim of a a specific victim of a doctor’s mistakedoctor’s mistake

13. AWARENESS13. AWARENESS

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• TerrorismTerrorism• Avian fluAvian flu• Nuclear powerNuclear power

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart diseaseHeart disease• InfluenzaInfluenza• Fossil fuel pollutionFossil fuel pollution

(More Afraid)(More Afraid)• TerrorismTerrorism• Avian fluAvian flu• Nuclear powerNuclear power

(Less Afraid)(Less Afraid)• Heart diseaseHeart disease• InfluenzaInfluenza• Fossil fuel pollutionFossil fuel pollution

New Nuclear Power and Climate Change:

Issues and Opportunities

Kenneth Hughey

Senior Manager, Business Development

Entergy Nuclear

New Nuclear and its Role in Environmentally Friendly

Generation

W. Kenneth HugheySenior Manager, Nuclear Business Development

Entergy Nuclear

38

Earth at night NASA

A Unique Perspective

Our planet todayPopulation ~ 6 Billion

Consumption & Emission Rates Will Increase With Economic Development And Growth

Fossil Fuels dominate electricity generation, run factories, power vehicles, heat homes, etc.

GHG Emissions (per capita)North America 54 kg Europe & Japan 23 kgChina 6 kg

25 Billion Tons Of CO2 Into The Atmosphere Per Year

To Stabilize GHGs 50% - 75% Reduction in Global Emissions

Our next century

By 2050 Global Energy Consumption Will Double

Economies Will Grow Developing Countries Will Evolve

Population

50 Years . . . . .

~ 9 Billion

~ 6 Billion

Energy Demand

The global challenge

Oil production is in decline in 33 of

the 48 largest oil producing countries

The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered

It took us 125 years to use the first trillion

barrels of oil…We’ll use the next trillion

in 30 years

www.willyoujoinus.com

The global challenge

Our Challenge - To Produce Clean Energy On A Global Scale.

More Energy Will Be Consumed Than In All Previous History

In the Next 50 Years . . . . .

GHG Emissions Could Double

Renewables“Clean Energy”

Realistic Perspective – Collective impact will be quite limited – for decades to come. OECD projects less than 3% of world electricity demand at peak.

Biomass

Renewable Development Must

Be Strongly Supported

Geothermal

Solar

Wind

Reality of renewables

Want energy from renewables? Add more states!

Entergy does not havea crystal ball

But we do know World needs more energy

Finite supply of conventional oil and gas

Stricter environmental regulations

America needs energy security/diversity

Nuclear energy’s potential is not fully exploited

Nuclear: A realistic option?

The answer is YES!

Consider: Nuclear is the largest source of emission-free

electric energy

Nuclear is among the lowest-cost energy

Nuclear fuel costs are stable and a relatively

small component of production cost

Nuclear’s safety record is second to none

Entergy’s 2-track approachAdvanced Light Water Reactor High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

ESBWR: Design Highlights

• 25% Less EquipmentCost Less to buildCost less to operateGreater Safety Margins

• Passive Safety TechnologyNo Active Safety SystemsOffsite Power Not RequiredOnsite Power (EDGs) Not RequiredOperator Action Not Required for 72 hrs

• 4500 MWt 1500-1600 MWe• Optimized Design Features

No Recirc Pumps (Natural Circulation)Digital Control TechnologyFiber Optic CablingEnhanced StabilityGreater Safety Margins

The 300-pound gorilla

Transportation• Now consumes more than 20% of world’s energy

– 28% of total energy in U.S.

• By 2010:– India will have 36 times more cars than in 1990– China will have 91 times more cars than in 1990

• In U.S., cars and light trucks are responsible for a third of all CO2 emissions– 1,934 million metric tons a year

What’s Nuclear’s role in transportation?Hydrogen?

Hydrogen todayWorld Consumption 45 MM Tons/yr

– ~96% Produced by Steam Methane Reforming

– Releases 320 MM tons of CO2/yr

Oil Refining

(37%)

Ammonia Production

(50%)

Methanol

Production (8%) Other (5%)

Source: Salomon Smith Barney, EIA, EPRI

Liquid Fuel Production is Rapidly Becoming Major Market for H2

10% Annual Growth

A bridging market For deployment of nuclear is hydrogen.

US Consumption 11 MM Tons/yr– ~96% Produced by SMR– Releases 74 MM tons of CO2/yr– Consumes 5% of US NG Supply