new technology lecture l11 connecting people
DESCRIPTION
The history of technology has many lessons on how technology trends evolve over time. Discoveries create opportunities for practical solutions. The foundation for electronic communication as we know today was laid in the 19th century. From 1820 to the turn of the century, innovators made experiments and discoveries. Morse’s telegraph made Western Union big and powerful. The telegraph proved to be a disruptive technology that changed how wars were fought and how businesses were run. However, the telephone would also prove to be disruptive and destroyed the telegraph business. At the dawn of the 20th century many believed that there was a market for wireless communication. One was Guglielmo Marconi, who set out to commercialize the technology. Marconi and others created a new market for communicationTRANSCRIPT
Lecture L11 CONNECTING PEOPLE
Think about this
How does technology evolve?
Adjacent PossibleLaw of Accelerating Returns
The S-curve
The Prevailing Technology Trap
Wars have been won on intelligence and the speed of communications!
Militaries and business community on the forefront on the development of rapid communication
Communication
Early 19th century the horse dominatedStage coaches and pony expressThe railroads changed thisThen came electricity
Communication
Flickr image: -‐Qualsiasi
Electricity
Electricity
Long before the 19th century, people had acknowledged electronic forces
!
Benjamin Franklin’s famous Kite experiment in 1752 proved
that lightning was made of electricity
Scientific Discoveries
From 1820 to 1880 saw series in radio and electromagnetismEra of poor communication and non-systematic researchDuplicated work, misunderstood results, and often misinterpreted own results
Early Discoveries
Christian Oersted !
Discovered electromagnetism (rafsegulsvið) 1820 !
Electric current (straumur) creates a magnetic field (segulsvið)
!
Early DiscoveriesMichael Faraday !
In 1821 reversed Oersted’s experiment and discovered induction (leiðni)!
He got current to flow through wire around a magnet!
Magnetic energy could be converted to electricity – Faraday’s Law
Early DiscoveriesJoseph Henry !
Scientist professor with College of New Jersey!
Transmitted the first practical electric signal (rafboð) in 1830 !
This was the foundation forelectric signalling – the telegraph
Early DiscoveriesJames Maxwell !
Published papers on electricity Maxwell’s Equations 1864 !
Light, electricity, and magnetisms are related and travel or radiate in waves!
Waves depend on frequency
Early DiscoveriesHeinrich Hertz !
Defined and documented a practical way to send and receive radio waves, 1888 !
Used Maxwell’s Equations
Timeline
ConclusionsSeveral discoveries were made 1820-1880Electricity, Radio, ElectromagnetismsLaw of Accelerating Return !
This laid foundation for new disruptive technologiesAdjacent Possible
The Second Industrial RevolutionThe period 1870-1914 Innovations in the chemical, electric, petroleum and steel industries!
Growth period
“The Age of Synergy” !
When most great innovations were developedBegun with Bessemer steel in the 1860s and culminated in mass production and the production line
The Second Industrial Revolution
The Long Wave
Kondratiev Waves !
1780 – 1830 Cotton, Iron, Water Power1830 – 1880 Railways, Steam Power, Steamships1880 – 1930 Electricity, Chemicals, Steel
Think About ThisWhat was the killer application of electricity?
Lighting became one of the first publicly available applications!
In 1880 Tomas Edison had developed a light-bulb that last enough time to be practical!
Several commercial solutionsLack of standardsPower transmissions and wiring of household!
"War of Currents"
Light
Electromagnetism and RadioFoundation for electroniccommunications
!
New markets for communicationTelegraphPhoneWireless Telegraph
Communication
“What has God wrought” Morse’s first message
from Baltimore to the U.S. capital
The Telegraph
The Telegraph
!
From the Greek wordstele = far and graphein = write(símriti)!
Later to be called the “Victorian Internet”
Simple device with battery and key for sending electric signals!
At the other end was a similar device emitting sound or printing the signal
The Telegraph
The TelegraphSamuel F. B. Morse invented the first practicaltelegraph in 1837!
Granted a patent 1838!
Moore devised a telegraphic code consistingof dots and dashes!
Shorter and longer electric impulse send down the wire - The Morse Code!
Standardised messages
The TelegraphThe Telegraph Business was born!
Morse sold licenses to companies that operated telegraph stations!
In 1851 there were over 50 companies in the US selling telegraph services – including Western Union !
Market consolidation
Study Exercise
The Telephone
“Mr. Watson, come here, I want you!” - Alexander G. Bell, the first telephone
message
The Telephone
Invented in 1876At the time, the telegraph was dominantTransferred sound waves with electric current over wire!
Alexander G. Bell Created the first practical telephone!
Based on experiments and improvements in technology at the time
The TelephoneBell was working on the harmonic telegraph !
A device that could send more then one telegraph message at the same time!
Worked with skilled machinist named Thomas A. Watson!
Joseph Henry encouraged him in 1875 to work on the telephone instread of the harmonic telegraph
The telephone was based on variable resistance (breytilegu viðnámi)
The Telephone
The Importance of Patents
Bell filed a notice for a patent Feb. 14, 1876“The most valuable patent ever issued” Elisha Gray also filed a patent that same day!
The Patent Mystery It is still a mystery what happened that dayDid Bell see Gray’s patent and update his?Over 600 legal battles would challenge the patent
Commercial Development
Bell had difficulty convincing contemporaries of the usefulness of the telephone - the telegraph prevailed!
Difficult to get investment!
Bell offered the patent to Western Union for $100.000 which they declined!
Bell continued and slowly telephonesstarted to replace telegraphs
The Bell Company
In 1877 Bell and his backers formed the first Bell Company!
Gardiner Hubbard and George Sanders!
Business model: Bell Company leased telephones and licensed franchises instead of selling them
The Battle with Western UnionWestern Union was very powerful company – near-monopoly in telegraphs with a huge network of wires!
Western Union started competing with Bell in 1877!
Founded American Speaking Telephone Company with Thomas Edison, Elisha Gray, Amos Dolbear!
Made many improvements
The Battle with Western UnionBell sued Western Union for patent infringements!
The case was settled in 1879!
Bell agreed not to go into the telegraph market, and Western Union agreed not to go into the telephone market!
Bell would buy Western Union’s telephone network with 50.000 subscribers in 50 cities and pay a license!
Stock in Bell’s company rose from $50 to $500 in 1879!
At least 1.730 telephone companies organised and operated during Bell’s patent protection
Emergence of a new Market
Within few years many telephone companies were formed!
Bell licensed telephone equipment !
In 1878 • First commercial switchboard started operation• First telephone directory came out with fifty names• The Ringing was invented – and patented
Patent Protection
Telephone Giant is born
AT&T Founded in 1885 to raise capital to fund the continued expansion and protect the market positionConnected the RBOCs for long distance calls
!
Bell Became the largest telephone company
In 1982 Bell was worth $256 billionIn 1984, split into AT&T and seven other independent companies
“The wireless telegraph is not difficult to understand. The ordinary telegraph is like a very
long cat. You pull the tail in New York, and it meows in Los Angeles. The wireless is the same,
only without the cat.” - Albert Einstein
Wireless Communication
History
At the dawn of the 20th century, two mediums for communication were dominant!
The telegraph: Became important in the American Civil War (1861-65), dominated by Western Union!
The telephone: Dominant technology with the growth of Bell!
Both these technologies had one problem: they were wire-based
HistoryKnowledge of radio waves is increasing!
Hertz proved Maxwell’s theories and demonstrated the existence of radio waves!
Next steps Commercial Solutions Many tried to build devices that sent and received “Hertzian waves”!
Wireless Telegraphy “Spark Transmitter” for sending signals – Morse Code The Prevailing Technology Trap
Innovators
Guglielmo Marconi saw an opportunityin wireless communication!
Studied physics at the Universityof Bologna!
Several experiments in 1894 inBologna, Italy!
Marconi’s goal was to use hisknowledge developed in telephony
The Product
Marconi was improving the telegraph!
“Spark Transmitter” where signals could represent the Morse code!
Potential market:Maritime market – British Royal NavyTransatlantic communication
Marconi DemonstrationsMarconi provided public trails of his equipment!
Became a news item himself – provided interest in the technology and investing in his company
Skepticism and CompetitionMany scientists were happy to point out flaws in Marconi’s inventions Many tried to discredit his work These were mostly scientists, others competitors!
Doubts that wireless had any application Limitations – radios worded on fixed frequency Security – anyone could listen in The telegraph was initially 20 times faster!
Cable companies showed no interest in wireless
The Wireless Telegraph BubbleWireless Telegraph was popular in the press Public demonstration!
Many companies competed for stock funding Resulted in Stock inflations
“The Wireless Telegraph bubble”!
Sceptic voices started to respond !
Series of articles in Success Magazine, “Fools and their money” appeared 1907
The MarketThe market was where cables don’t work Ships became the prime market Airplanes when they became more common Military use – where cables cannot be laid Mobility – easy to move wireless equipment!
Problems No communication protocol was in use Each company had their own protocol
Government RegulationNo regulations controlled the airwaves
The sinking of RMS Titanic prompted governments to set international standards of communicationThe Marconi operator on the Titanic sent “C.Q.D”
C.Q. meant attention, D was for DistressSOS is ... - - - ...
Wireless CommunicationAround 1940 ideas for wireless communication were established!
40-50 years would pass before common practical application of a mobile phone!
It was not until the development of microchips and technology for building devices, that wireless communication became practical for individuals!
Rules and cautiousness were to delay the progress!
Also investments in land based systems
Wireless Communication
Wireless communication started early 20th centuryAdvanced during the wars
!
Wireless radio was important in WWIIMany innovations such as spread spectrum and frequency hopping
Wireless Communication
After the war, use of wireless was restricted to certain professions– Military, Police, Fire Departments– Taxis
Not public solutions
Mobile Radio Networks
The ideas for mobile radio networks were developed in the 1940s
Area of radio cells – Cellular networkEarly Systems
Bell Labs, AT&T International systems
Wireless technology and the idea of building a network of cells was understood in 1940s. Why did the public mobile phone not appear until in the late 1970s, early 80s?
Adjacent Possible
TECHNICAL !
Big Limited Expensive
CULTURAL !
Political Commercial
The Digital Revolution
NextRISE OF THE MACHINE
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