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Dr. Cynthia RosenzweigNASA GISS/Columbia University

Pace University Law SchoolSeptember 12, 2014

Climate Impacts and Adaptation in the

New York Metropolitan Region

Climate Change and New York StateA Long History of Action

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• New York State and New York City both have long history of action responding to climate change – Responding to Climate Change in

New York State (ClimAID) – New York City Panel on Climate

Change

• Recent extreme weather events (including Hurricane Irene and Hurricane Sandy) illustrate climate vulnerabilities across the state and the need for adaptation planning

NOAA and NASA, 2011

Climate Change in the New York City Metro Area

Spencer Platt Getty Images

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YEAR REPORT TITLE ORGANIZATION/PUBLIISHER

2014 Updated Climate Projections for New York State New York State Energy Research & Development Authority

2013/14 New York City Panel on Climate Change Columbia University and CUNY

2011 New York State ClimAID Adaptation Assessment New York State Energy Research & Development Authority

2010 New York City Panel on Climate Change Columbia University and CUNY

2010 Rising Waters: Helping Hudson River Communities Adapt to Climate Change

The Nature Conservancy

2008 New York City’s Vulnerability to Coastal Flooding: Storm Surge Modeling of Past Cyclones

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society

2008 Climate Change Program Assessment and Action Plan New York City Department of Environmental Protection

2007 Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions

Union of Concerned Scientists

2007 August 8, 2007 Storm Report Metropolitan Transit Authority

2001 Climate Change and a Global City: Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change

U.S. National Assessment & Columbia Earth Institute

1999 Hot Nights in the City: Global Warming, Sea‐Level Rise and the New York Metropolitan Region

Environmental Defense Fund

1996 The Baked Apple? Metropolitan New York in the Greenhouse New York Academy of Sciences

New York State Climate Regions

4ClimAID, 2011

Westchester sits at the boundary of three climate Regions (2, 4, and 5). Most climate data (observed and future) shown here are for Region 4. In general projected mean changes are similar throughout these 3 regions.

What does the local climate record tell us?

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Source: NOAA; NASA; Columbia CCSR, 2014

New York City Metropolitan RegionClimate Hazards

July 2010 Heat Waves

August 2007 Rainfall

Hurricane SandySnowfall

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TemperatureMean annual temperature in New York City has increased 4.4°F from 1900 to 2011.

PrecipitationMean annual precipitation has increased 7.7 inches from 1900 to 2011 (a change of 1.4 percent per decade). Year‐to‐year precipitation variability was greater from 1956 to 2011 than from 1900 to 1955.

Sea LevelSea level in New York City (at the Battery) has risen 1.1 feet since 1900.

* All trends significant at the 99% levelNPCC2 CRI, 2013

Extreme Events75% increase in heaviest rain events in Northeastin last 50 yrs

Increase in strength of hurricanes and in number of the most intense hurricanes in North Atlantic since early 1980s

Observed Climate Trends

Observed U.S. Trends

USGCRP 2009

Rising Temperatures

Longer Growing Season

Record highs exceed record lows

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What is projected for the New York City metropolitan area?

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Uncertainty and Risk Management

10NPCC, 2013; CCSR, 2013

Projections are presented in a way that facilitates risk-based decision-making

• Accomplished by:– Using ranges of model‐based

outcomes and likelihoods based on scientific literature

– Presenting outcomes based on climate model results and different future greenhouse gas emissions

• Note that model‐based outcomes do not encompass the full range of possible futures

¹ Presented relative to the 1971 - 2000 base period. Based on 35 global climate models and 2 representative concentrations pathways. The 10th, 25th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of the distribution are presented.

Climate Projection MethodsTemperature and Precipitation

• Variables– Mean annual changes– Changes in extreme events

• Quantitative projections based on global climate model simulations

• Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)– 35 global climate models (GCMs) – 2 representative concentration pathways

(RCP4.5, RCP8.5)– Timeslices: 2020s, 2050s, 2080s, 2100– 1 ensemble member per GCM– Single gridbox downscaling (Horton et al.,

2011)

11NPCC; 2013 CCSR, 2013

RCP CO2 Concentrations

Mean Annual ChangesTemperature and Precipitation

12NYSERDA, 2014

Air temperatureBaseline (1971‐2000) 54.6°F

Low‐estimate(10th percentile)

Middle range(25th to 75th percentile)

High‐estimate(90th percentile)

2020s + 1.5°F + 2.0°F to 2.9°F + 3.2°F

2050s + 3.1°F + 4.1°F to 5.7°F + 6.6°F

2080s + 3.8°F + 5.3°F to 8.8°F + 10.3°F

2100 + 4.2°F + 5.8°F to 10.4°F + 12.1°F

PrecipitationBaseline (1971‐2000) 49.7 inches




2020s ‐ 1 percent + 1 to + 8 percent + 10 percent

2050s + 1 percent + 4 to + 11 percent + 13 percent

2080s + 2 percent + 5 to + 13 percent + 19 percent

2100 ‐ 6 percent ‐ 1 to + 19 percent + 25 percent Based on 35 GCMs and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Baseline data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and are for New York City (Central Park). Shown are the low‐estimate (10th percentile), middle range (25th percentile to 75th percentile), and high‐estimate (90th percentile) 30‐year mean values from model‐based outcomes.

Region 4 – New York City and Long Island*

Extreme EventsTemperature

13NYSERDA, 2014

Based on 35 GCMs and two Representative Concentration Pathways. Baseline data are from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) and are for New York City (Central Park). Shown are the low‐estimate (10th percentile), middle range (25th percentile to 75th percentile), and high‐estimate (90th percentile) 30‐year mean values from model‐based outcomes.

Number of days/year with minimum temperature at or below 32°F71 days/year




2020s 50 52 to 58 60

2050s 37 42 to 48 52

2080s 25 30 to 42 49

Number of days/year with maximum temperature at or above 90°F (1971‐2000) 18 days/year




2020s 24 26 to 31 33

2050s 32 39 to 52 57

2080s 38 44 to 76 87

Region 4 – New York City and Long Island*

Sea Level Rise Methods

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• Developed single range – Included future changes in polar ice sheets

• Updated model‐based components with CMIP5– 24 Global Climate Models– 2 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5)

• Revised meltwater and land‐subsidence terms

• Added additional components– Land water storage– Gravitational, isostatic, rotational (‘fingerprint’) term

NPCC; 2013 CCSR, 2013

Sea Level Rise Projections

15NYSERDA, 2014; CCSR, 2013

Sea level rise¹Baseline

(2000‐2004) 0 inches


Middle range(25th to 75thpercentile)


2020s 1 inch 3 to 7 inches 9 inches

2050s 5 inches 9 to 19 inches 27 inches

2080s 10 inches 14 to 36 inches 54 inches

2100 11 inches 18 to 46 inches 71 inches

¹ Based on 24 GCMs and 2 Representative Concentration Pathways.

Region 5 – East Hudson and Mohawk River Valleys (Troy Dam)

How is the New York City metropolitan region responding to

climate change?

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Flexible Adaptation Pathways

Climate change adaptation as a risk management issue

Flexible Adaptation Pathways as the response

Source: NPCC, 2010

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1. Identify current and future climate hazards

2. Conduct inventory of infrastructure and assets and begin to identify vulnerabilities

3. Characterize risk

4. Develop initial list of strategies

5. Identify opportunities for coordination

6. Prioritize strategies

7. Prepare and implement Resilience Plans

8. Monitor and reassess

NPCC, 2010

Steps of Assessment and Implementation

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New York City Adaptation Process

Source: NPCC, 2010

Stakeholder Task ForceCCATF

City‐wide Sustainability Office OLTPS

Expert PanelNPCC

CWW

P

T

E

Mayor

City Agencies

‐ Regional Authorities

‐ Private Stakeholders

Integration across

Sector‐specific Working Groups ‐ Energy (E) ‐ Transportation (T)

‐ Policy (P) ‐ Water & Waste (WW)

‐ Communications (C)

University scholars and private sector experts

‐ Social, biological, and physical scientists

‐ Legal and insurance experts

‐ Risk management professionals

Leadership

Coordination

Implementation

Climate Science

How can we advance resilience in the New York City metropolitan

region?

• Leadership– Set explicit goals by high‐level metropolitan region leaders in regard to

development of climate resilience

• Coordination – Create liaison office that organizes the interactions between the relevant

groups throughout the metropolitan region

• Climate Information– Use latest scientific data and methods available for the metropolitan region.

• Civil Society – Identify community needs and wants across the entire metropolitan region.

• Implementation – Create partnerships among municipal, state, national, and international

bodies that can provide financing for implementation of adaptation strategies.

Best Practices for Metropolitan Regions

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Key Players in Metropolitan Resilience

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Key Player Roles and Responsibilities

Governments

Roles: Lead City, Metropolitan Region Municipal, State, and National Governments

Responsibilities: Establishing councils, commissions, and task forces; coordinating key groups; conducting local risk assessments; setting policies and funding large‐scale investments and projects

Citizen Groups

Roles: Grass‐roots efforts in individual metropolitan regions; local chapters of international organizations; local non‐profit groups engaged in community efforts

Responsibilities: Information gathering for metropolitan planners and decision‐makers; information dissemination to public; assessing social vulnerabilities

Infrastructure ManagersRoles: Managing critical metropolitan region infrastructure

Responsibilities: Developing and implementing resilience planning to protect against climate events

Private Sector

Roles: Insurance companies; utility providers; other businesses

Responsibilities: Designing, planning, and executing implementation of resilience measures and adaptation strategies; ensuring compliance with new regulations

Knowledge Providers

Roles: Academics from universities, government agencies, and private sector research groups

Responsibilities: Co‐generating climate risk information with decision‐makers; tailoring information to the needs of individual metropolitan regions; communicating climate risk information and uncertainties to decision‐makers and the public

UCCRN, 2014

Approaches to Resilience Action

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Policy, social, engineering, and ecosystems interact to respond to changing climate and coastal hazards. Overlapping areas illustrate opportunities for adaptation and resilience strategies that combine components of each domain.

UCCRN, 2014

References and Links• Consortium for Climate Risk in the Urban Northeast (www.ccrun.org)• NYSERDA ClimAID (www.nyserda.ny.gov/climaid) • New York City Panel on Climate Change Report (www.nyas.org) • Urban Climate Change Research Network (www.uccrn.org)

NPCC

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