new zealand’s dairy industry hon. john luxton chairman dairynz
TRANSCRIPT
New Zealand’s dairy industryHon. John Luxton
Chairman
DairyNZ
• DairyNZ tvc
IntroducingNZ dairy farming
New Zealand is 1/10th the size of Argentina
Source: IBGE, SAGyPA Indicator Series, ODEPA, OPYPA, LIC, FAONotes: 1) NZ base year is 2000/01 season.
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
75
100
125
150
175
Ar-gentina
Brazil
Chile
Uruguay
New Zea-land
Ind
ex (
2000 =
100)
Mercosul & NZ milk production
2000200020002000200020002000200020002000200020002001200120012001200120012001200120012001200120012002200220022002200220022002200220022002200220022003200320032003200320032003200320032003200320032004200420042004200420042004200420042004200420042005200520052005200520052005200520052005200520052006200620062006200620062006200620062006200620062007200720072007200720072007200720072007200720072008200820082008200820082008200820082008200820082009200920092009200920092009200920092009200920092010201020102010201020102010201020102010201020102011201120112011201120112011201120112011201120110.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
New Zea-land
Chile X Region
Uruguay
Brazil (MG)
USA
Mil
k P
rice
(U
S$/
kg f
at &
pro
t.,
adju
sted
fo
r in
flat
ion
, av
erag
e o
f la
st 1
2 m
on
ths)
Brazil Dairy Industry Background
Source: LIC,USDA, ODEPA, OPYPA, ESALQ
International milk prices
• 1.46 million ha used
• >85% grazed pasture
• 16.5 billion litres
• 8th largest producer
• Only 2.3% of world production
Dairying in New Zealand
Dairy Industry comprises ~25% of NZ’s export receipts
Milk price = international price… no tariffs and support
NZ dairying statistics
Dairy herds 11,691
No of cows milked 4.4m
Volume of milk produced 16.5 billion litres
Average herd size (cows) 376
Average stocking rate (cows/ha)
2.8
Average milksolids per cow (kg)
318
Milksolids per herd (kg) 123,000
How we compareNew Zealand Argentina
Milk production 18.5 m tonnes 9.5 m tonnes
Milk price 2% above world market -11% below world market
Milk consumption (ME per capita & per year)
>350 kg 187 kg
Milk processing into tradeable products
>90% 58%
Export >90% of production ~22% of production
Import ~3% of local consumption
~1% of local consumption
IFCN 2010 Dairy Report
NZ dairy farms vs Brazilian (Goiás) farms
Performance Indices New Zealand
GO - 2009 (average)
GO - 2009 (>1,000 l/day)
Age at First Calving (months) 24 34 29
Cows in Lactation (% of total) 73% 59% 66%
Machine milking (% of herds) 100% 24.2% 94.7%
Production (litres/ha/year) 12.960 1.981 3,579
Production (litres/man-day) 2.730 124 411
Production (litres/cow/year) 4,550 1,993 3,459
Use of artificial insemination 75% 12% 68%
Cost of Labour (R$/man-day) R$125 R$14 R$26
0
10
20
30
40
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Cow
s ca
lved
, %
Calving is seasonal
50
100
75
25
Pa
stu
re (
kg
DM
/ha
per
d)
Demand
Supplement required
Conservation required
Spring
Feed supply
The farming structure is evolving towards bigger farms and fewer farmers
19
74
/75
19
76
/77
19
78
/79
19
80
/81
19
82
/83
19
84
/85
19
86
/87
19
88
/89
19
90
/91
19
92
/93
19
94
/95
19
96
/97
19
98
/99
20
00
/01
20
02
/03
20
04
/05
20
06
/07
20
08
/09
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
Herds Cows milked
Nu
mb
er
of
he
rds
Co
ws
milk
ed
Source: LIC Dairy Statistics, DairyNZ Economics Group
Production by herd size 2009-10
0-99
100-
199
200-
299
300-
399
400-
499
500-
599
600-
699
700-
799
800-
899
900-
999
1000
-109
9
1100
-119
9
1200
+
0
50,000,000
100,000,000
150,000,000
200,000,000
250,000,000
Herd size (cows)
Kilo
gram
s Milk
solid
s (m
illio
ns)
Source: DairyNZ Economics Group
6%
28%
7%
9%
11%
4%
18%
17%
Production trends
1990 2000 2010
North Island 93% 77% 61%
South Island 7% 23% 39%
Milksolids production
NZ Export Markets
North Asia South-East Asia
Africa and Middle-
East
South and Central America
North America
Europe Pacific -
500,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,500,000,000
2,000,000,000
2,500,000,000
3,000,000,000
3,500,000,000
4,000,000,000
2000-01 ($m)2010-11p ($m)
$ N
Z FO
B (n
omin
al)
Source: Statistics New Zealand, DairyNZ Economics Group
Major processing companies
• Fonterra Cooperative Group:– 90 percent of milk supply and exports– 40 percent of the domestic consumer market
• 2 other co-operatives: – Tatua– Westland
• 5 other processing companies:– Open Country Dairies– Synlait– New Zealand Dairies– Goodman Fielder
• Farmers own 95%+ of processing capacity
Regulatory framework
DIRA• Open entry and exit• Contracting rules• 20% rule• Raw milk regulations
Fonterra milk price model
• Calculates revenue if all milk was processed into basic commodities & sold overseas
• Deducts shipping, processing & freight costs• Balance paid to farmers as milk price• Value add – eg selling premium ingredients/
investment in consumer brands – treated as profit
• Farmers receive profit as dividends on their Fonterra shares, plus price paid for raw milk
Looking ahead
1. Dairy making large & growing contribution
2. Global supply/demand supports NZ growth
3. On-farm business success $83/ha/yr
4. Erosion of NZ’s low cost base poses threat
5. Imperatives for productivity improve remain
6. Public & consumers driving sustainability
7. Public perceptions about dairy are mixed
8. Skilled people increasingly important
9. Unified approach to innovation & adoption
Improving productivityQuestions?