Newcastle University, England, UK

Peter SelmanNewcastle University, UKpfselman@yahoo.co.uk

Behind the Numbers: The Demography of Intercountry Adoption

The Rise and Fall of ICA• The period from 1998-2009 saw a remarkable rise

and fall in the number of children moving for intercountry adoption each year.

• In 1998 there were c 31,700 adoptions; by 2004 this had risen to over 45,000; By 2009 it had fallen to under 30,000 – less than in 1998.

Available statistics for 2010 suggest that the global total will fall further, although numbers have increased in France and Italy

Intercountry Adoption 1998-2009

1998 2001 2004 2008 2009

USA – FY

SpainFrance

ItalyCanada

Top 5

15,774

1,4873,7772,2332,222

25,493

19,237

3,4283,0941,7971,926

29,430

22,884

5,5414,0793,4001,955

37,861

17,483

3,1563,2713,9771,908

31,556

12,753

3,0063,0173,9642,122

24,862

23 States

% to USA

31,710

50%

36,391

53%

45,298

51%

34,774

50%

29,863

43%

Standardised Rates• Although the United States receive most

children for ICA , other countries have a higher level per 100,000 population. In 2004 the highest rates were found in Norway (15.4), Spain (13.0) and Sweden (12.3)

• The lowest rates were in Australia ( 1.9 ) Germany ( 0.8 ) and the UK ( 0.6 )

• In Sweden in 1977 the rate was 22.6 and there were 2 adoptions for every 100 births

The rise in numbers 1998-2004

1998 2001 2004 % change

SpainIreland

NetherlandsItalyUSA

1,487147825

2,23315,774

3,428179

1,1221,797

19,237

5,541398

1,3073,402 22,884

+ 273+171+ 58+ 52+ 45

22 States 31,710 36,391 45,298 + 42 %SwedenNorwayFranceCanada

928643

3,7772,222

1,044713

3,0941,874

1,109700

4,0791,955

+ 19+ 10+ 8- 15

Change in Numbers 2004-20102004 2009 % change 2010

NorwayNetherlands

SpainUSA - FY

7061,3075,541

22,824

347682

3,00612,753

- 51 %- 48% - 46 %- 44%

343697 n/a

11,05923 states 45,298 29,865 - 35% n/a FranceSwedenCanada

Italy

4,0791,1091,9553,400

3,017912

2,1223,964

-27 %-18 % + 9 % + 17 %

3,504(655)n/a

4,130

The Demographic History of ICA• More than 400,000 children were adopted

world-wide to 23+ countries between 2000 and 2010 – largest number for any decade

• The next four slides will explore the number adopted in previous decades since 1950

• This will enable an estimate of the number of children adopted since the end of WW2

Intercountry Adoption 1990 -1999• Data were obtained for 15-20 countries from 1993 –

1999 and for 12 countries 1990-1992

• About 225,000 children were adopted to these countries – many from China and Russia after 1992 - and 10,000+ from Romania in 1990/91

• Estimated number not recorded would be at least 10,000. So decade total would be 235,000+

Intercountry Adoption 1980 - 1989

• Kane (1993) obtained data from 14 countries – 8 had good data for 9-10 years; 4 for 5-8 years - but Canada sent data for Quebec alone but took many more ; 2 (Spain and Germany) had data for only 3 years.

• Data sent amounted to 163,000 (78,000 – 47% - from the USA), Kane estimates a minimum of 170-180,000 for the decade.

Intercountry Adoption 1970-1979• Data for 5 countries (USA; Holland; Denmark,

Norway and Sweden) – give a total of 77,000.• Belgium and France received 6,000 from Korea

alone during this decade.• Children were also sent by India, Indonesia,

Thailand, Vietnam and several Latin American countries; and received in addition by Canada, Germany, Italy Luxembourg and Switzerland.

• A decade total of at least 90-100,000 is likely.

Intercountry Adoption 1948-1969

• Altstein & Simon (1991) record more than 31,000 to USA; there were 4,500 to Sweden; and children also went to the Netherlands, Belgium and Scandinavia)

• Korea sent 9,000+ children from 1953-1969• Germany sent 30,000 ( 5,000+ to the US)• Greece sent c 4,000 to US and 400+ to Netherlands • Children were also sent from Austria and Japan• The total number moving in these years will be at

least 50,000+

Summary of Estimate 1948-2010• 2000-2010 410,000 • 1990-1999 235,000 +• 1980- 1989 180,000 (Kane)• 1970-1979 95,000 +• 1948- 1969 50,000 +• All states 1948-2010 =

970,000+• USA 1948-2010 =

450,000

Countries of Origin• Many countries have been involved in

intercountry adoption and those sending most children have changed over time.

• Korea has the longest sequence of official statistics (1953-2009) - total over 165,000 by 2010.

• Between 1992 and 2010 China has sent more than 125,000 children for ICA; Russia more than 110,000

• Tables below are based on statistical returns to the 2010 Hague Special Commission or on estimates from data from receiving States.

Top 7 Sending Countries: 1980-2009

1980-89 1998 2004 2009

Korea

India

Colombia

Brazil

Sri Lanka

Chile

Philippines 

China

Russia

Vietnam

Korea

Colombia

Guatemala

India  

China

Russia

Guatemala

Korea

Ukraine

Colombia

Ethiopia

China

Ethiopia

Russia

Ukraine

Vietnam

Korea

Colombia

Top 6 Sending Countries 2009

USA FY Spain Italy France

China

Ethiopia

Russia

Korea

Guatemala

Ukraine

 

Russia

Ethiopia

China

Ukraine

Colombia

Kazakhstan  

Russia

Ukraine

Colombia

Ethiopia

Brazil

Poland

Haiti

Ethiopia

Vietnam

Russia

Colombia

Mali

States of Origin 2005-2009

2005 2007 2009 2005-9TOTAL TO23 STATES 43,402 37,514 29,045 - 14,357CHINA

GUATEMALARUSSIA

Three States

14,4933,8577,471

8,7544,8504,881

4,890 356

3,693

- 9,603- 3,501- 3,778- 16,882

ETHIOPIAHAITI

VIETNAMThree States

1,778921

1,190

3,031779

1,692

4,5641,2381,497

+ 2,786+ 317+ 307

- 3,410

Standardised Rates • China sends most children for intercountry adoption

other countries send more in relation to their level of births (adoptions per 1,000). China Ratio – 0.3 in 2009

• From 2003-2009, the highest levels were found in Bulgaria (15.5 in 2003) and Guatemala (10.8 in 2007); Haiti may reach 9-10.0 in 2010. Higher levels for Romania in 1991 and Korea in the 1980s.

• India’s adoption ratio (0.02 in 2009) is the lowest of the top ten sending countries. Ethiopia’s ratio rose from 0.3 in 2003 to 1.5 in 2009

Adoption Ratios in States of Origin2003 – 2009 – by rank in 2005

Country 2003 2005

2007 2009

GuatemalaLatviaRussiaUkraine

HaitiKorea

BulgariaChina

EthiopiaBelarus

India

6.43.66.35.04.24.7

15.50.60.37.2

0.02

8.8 5.44.94.43.63.81.9

0.840.560.260.03

10.86.74.52.54.04.01.40.6

0.950.4

0.04

0.8 6.12.53.54.52.83.50.31.50.3

0.02

Age of Children Adopted

USA 2008 USA 2005Under 1 1-4 5+ Under 1 1-4 5+

Korea 86% 12% 1% 92% 8% 0%Guatemala 48% 47% 5% 79% 18% 3%

China 24% 66% 10% 35% 63% 3%

Russia 4% 75% 21% 20% 51% 29%

Ukraine --- 30% 70% --- 53% 47%

Brazil --- 27% 73% 5% 22% 74%

Age of Children Adopted in Key Receiving states - Hague

2005 2007 2009

% over 5

% under

1

% over 5

% under1

% over 5

% under1

Italy 47% 6% 50% 10% 58% 7%France 24% 32% 33% 23% 34% 21%

USA 16% 42% 18% 39% 25% 25%Iceland 6% 17% 11% 11% 29% 6%Australia 8% 47% 8% 41% 9% 37%

Adoptions from ASIA• Asian adoptions represented a majority (55%+) of

all transnational adoptions until the mid-1980s • In the 21st century Asia accounts for 40%+ : 46%

in 2005 falling to 35% in 2009, when Asia accounted for 80% of adoptions to Australia; 60% of adoptions to Sweden; 45% for USA; 25% for Spain; 20% for Italy and France

• In recent years there have been major concerns over adoption from India, Vietnam and Nepal

CHINA 2005-2009 – CCAA data 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

USA 6,138 4,736 3,515 3,029

Spain 2,608 1,269 738 817

Canada 928 748 496 294 379

Netherland 667 367 330 297 297

Sweden 432 335 248 198 255

France 439 331 178 139 95

Australia 124 112 93 57 55

To 17 states 14,221 10,646 7,858 5,531 5,294

7,933

1,909

% of Children Adopted from China with special needs

2005 2007 2009

Netherlands 13% 42% 66%USA 14% 42% 61%

All States 9% 30% 49%Sweden 6% 25% 48%

France 6% 13% 34%Spain 0.1% 4% 9%

Australia 1% 0% 5%

4 Asian States of Origin2001-2008

Adoption from South Korea• In 2007 for the first time for many years there were

more domestic than intercountry adoptions. But the annual number of transnational adoptions remains high for a country which is now rich and has lowest fertility in Asia.

• Most adoptions are now of children of unmarried mothers - see I wish for you a beautiful life

• Korea still sends more children per 1,000 births than Ethiopia or China.

KOREA 1998-2009: Min H&W

1998 2003 2006 2008 2009USA

1,854 1,748 1,503 988 850Norway 131 81 70 45 40Sweden 111 110 90 76 84Australia

84 108 54 18 34Canada 8 93 96 78 67TOTAL 2,443 2,287 1,899 1,250 1,125

In-country1,426 1,514 1,332 1,306 1,314

Adoption in India • India has the lowest adoption ratio of any major

sending country and numbers have been falling in recent years. In-country adoptions are now more numerous, but remain few in relation to need.

• But concern over irregularities have been increasing. The agency Preet Mandir was exposed by CNN as “selling” babies to foreigners - see also writing of David Smolin in US and Julia Rollings in Australia, whose adopted children had been stolen.

• .

INDIA 1998 -20101998 2004 2006 2009 2010

USA 478 406 320 297 243

Italy 194 102 136 132 123

Spain 48 117 79 29

Canada 179 70 36 59

Denmark 120 100 30 24To 20 States 1,596 1,086 861 725

CARA data 1,406 1,021 852 666 593

In-country 1,746 1,707 2,409 1,852 5,309

In-country and Intercountry Adoption in India and Korea

INDIA KOREAIntercountry In-country Intercountry In-country

19901995200020042008

1,2721,2361,3641,021821

1,0751,4241,8702,2942,169

2,9622,1802,3602,2581,250

1,6471,0251,6861,6411,306

Pop 2005 1,103 million 47.8 millionBirths 2005 25,926 thousand 438 thousand

Ratio 0.034 0.088 4.8 3.3

VIETNAM 2003-2010ReceivingCountry

2003 2005 2008 2009 2010

France 234 790 284 308 469

Italy 59 140 313 231 251

USA 382 7 828 481 9

Ireland 39 92 182 136 10

Sweden 32 80 50 65

Canada 45 0 105 159

TOTAL 488 1,195 1,695 1,497 (739)

Nepal 2003-2010 ReceivingCountry

2003-9 2003 2006 2009 2010

Spain 582 38 173 0 Italy 377 64 90 8 59USA 345 42 66 6 30

France 239 36 61 3 19Other 150 14 20 3 (4)Total 1,737 194 410 20 (112)

The rise and fall of adoptions from Eastern Europe

• The fall of Ceausescu and media coverage of the Romanian orphanages led to estimated 10,000+ adoptions in 1990/91.

• From 1995 Russia and other E. Europe states sent many • In 2005 Romania called a total end to non-relative ICA.• Adoptions have also ended in Belarus and fallen in Bulgaria• As a result the proportion of ICA from Europe - excluding

Kazakhstan - fell from 31% in 2003 to 23 % in 2009 - • BUT number of children – many older or special needs - sent

from Latvia, Lithuania and other new EU states has risen.

Eastern Europe 2003-2009

2003 2004 2006 2009Russia 7,746 9,426 6,766 4,039Ukraine 2,052 2,021 1,031 1,523Bulgaria 963 393 96 222Belarus 656 627 34 27Romania 473 289 0 0Poland 346 406 362 401Hungary 69 70 100 120EUROPE 13,058 13,949 9,043 6,793

RUSSIA 2004-2010ReceivingCountry

2004 2005 2007 2009 2010

US (FY) 5,865 4,639 3,706 1,586 1,082Spain 1,618 1,262 955 868Italy 739 628 492 704 707

France 445 357 402 288 301Ireland 189 131 160 100 80Israel 95 73 108 75Total 9,426 7,479 4,879 4,039 (2,221)

Intercountry Adoption from AfricaFor many years intercountry adoption from Africa was rare. However, the growing demand for young infants - and in the US publicity surrounding adoption from Ethiopia by Angelina Jolie – has changed all that.

In 2003 Africa accounted for 5% of all intercountry adoptions – by 2009 this had risen to

22% In 2009 Ethiopia was the second largest source of children for ICA after China and the main supplier of children to Belgium, Canada and Denmark.

And numbers sent by Nigeria, Mali and Congo (Democratic Republic) are rising.

AFRICA 2004-2009 (US FY)2004 2006 2007 2008 2009

Ethiopia 1,527 2,172 3,031 3,896 4,564Madagascar 335 133 71 15 36

S. Africa 242 206 202 214 283

Nigeria 94 104 81 225 184Liberia 87 369 334 249 36

Mali 82 125 158 104 191Congo 12 62 68 62 149TOTAL 2,950 3,820 4,670 5,610 6,372

ETHIOPIA 2001-20102001 2004 2007 2009 2010

USA FY 158 289 1,255 2,277 2,513Spain 0 220 481 722

France 234 390 417 445 352

Italy 79 193 256 346 274Canada 15 34 135 170Belgium 38 62 124 143 127Denmark 23 41 39 125TOTAL 728 1,524 3,033 4,564

Adoption from Latin America• In the 1980s 8 of the top 12 sending

countries were from Latin America. In 2008 only 3 - Guatemala, Colombia and Haiti - were in the top 12; in 2009 only Colombia and Haiti. Brazil still sends 4-500 children a year, most are older or have special need: Peru and Mexico send 100 150; Chile and El Salvador send less than 100.

• Haiti has become a major source for France, Canada, the USA and the Netherlands – hence the concern over recent events.

Latin America 2003-2009

Child Rescue or Child Theft ?• In 2007 a French Charity Zoe’s Ark was accused of child

trafficking in the case of the 103 children it attempted to fly out of Chad - and sentenced in Chad to 8 years hard labour.

• In 2010 The Haitian Earthquake raised fears of “rescue” of children affected. 10 members of an Idaho-based Baptist charity were arrested for trying to take 33 Haitian children across the border with the Dominican Republic without proper paperwork – none were orphans

• Meanwhile fears were also raised over plans to “expedite” adoptions which were “in the pipe-line” – leading to a major report from ISS.

HAITI: ISS Report (Aug 2010)

• Report highlights many areas of concern over how adoptions were expedited after earthquake

• Accepts that adoptions in “pipeline” with appropriate adoption judgement may be expedited but only after a “waiting period”

• For other children, hindsight indicates that heightened risks outweigh any benefits,

• Urgent need for a common approach which does not circumvent vital procedures

HAITI 2006-2010ReceivingCountry

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

France 571 403 731 651 992USA 309 190 302 330 1,223

Canada 123 89 148 141 (203)N/lands 41 28 91 60 108Germany 23 31 61 30 (62)Belgium 1 0 3 1 14Tota l (+ ISS)

1,096 779 1,368 1,238 2,337(2,625)

United States 2005-2009ReceivingCountry

2004 2005 2006 2008 2009

Canada 81 102 96 189 253Netherlands 16 32 38 56 34

UK 13 18 14 19 n/aSwitz 9 4 4 5 15

Sweden 3 4 10 7 5Total 128 169 178 289 314

US StateDeoartment -- -- -- 6 30

What happened in 2009-10 ?

• The continued decline in global numbers was largely due to the moratorium on adoptions from Guatemala and Liberia to the USA.

• The rise in adoptions from Ethiopia accelerated• Adoptions from Haiti doubled after earthquake• No. of Adoptions to Sweden, Denmark and Norway

increased in 2009; and to France and Italy in 2010.• As a result adoptions to Europe outnumbered those

to USA for first time since the 1980s.

What will happen in 2011 ?

• ?? Adoptions will recommence from Guatemala and Liberia

• Adoptions from Haiti and Korea will be fewer• Adoptions from Ethiopia will decline• Pressure on other African states will increase• Adoptions from Nepal and Vietnam will rise• Global numbers will continue to decline• International Surrogacy will continue to rise