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Consumer Price Index September 2017 News Release

Inflationary Trend (Headline CPI)

September 2017 Inflation

2 October 2017 Highlights Inflation rate in September 2017 rose 0.86 percent (YoY)This was increased 3 months in a row from the higher in gasoline retail prices as OPEC group has limited their production causing the higher prices. Besides, on 16 September 2017, there was the adjustment in prices of cigarettes and liquor according to new tax structure as well as the increase in fresh vegetables from the flood in some agricultural areas.Those resulted in Inflation rate averaged 9 months went up 0.59 percent (AoA). For these reasons, Ministry of Commerce had adjusted the 2017 forecast at 0.4 -1.0 percent from 0.7-1.7 percent previously.

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy Strategy Office.

Countries Inflation rates(Ave.Jan-Aug.17)

Inflation Projection 2017 (as of Sep.60)

Inflation rate 0.4 – 1.0 (YoY)

GDPf 3.0 – 4.0 (YoY)

Dubai Oilf 45 – 55 USD/Barrel

Exchange Ratef

33.5 – 34.5 Baht/USD

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

Thail

and

Singa

pore

Taiw

an

Hong

Kon

g

Chin

a

Sout

h Ko

rea

Indi

a

Phill

ipin

es

Viet

nam

Mal

aysia

Indo

nesia

0.56 0.7 0.73 1.4 1.5

2.1 2.88 3.1

3.85 3.9 3.94

Price level of goods and services in September 2017 increased 0.58 percent (MoM).This was due to 0.70 percent increase in Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category (pork, eggs, fresh fruit and vegetables, prepared food) as well as 0.50 percent increase in Non-food and alcoholic beverages (electricity, cleaning supplies, gasoline, cigarettes, liquor).Price movement are as the following: Pork increased 0.24 percent during the Chinese Ghost festival Eggs increased 1.41 both hens eggs and duck eggs.Less supply due to

raining season Fresh fruits and vegetables increased 5.00 such as coriander Chinese

cabbage, celery, cauliflower, lettuce as it was rainy and those were perishable.For some fruits, prices were higher during Hungry Ghost festival such as oranges, rambutan, longon, longan, dragon fruit

Prepared food increased 0.06 percent such as ready made curry, breakfast, ordered food

Electricity increased 2.62 percent from the adjustment in Ft during September-December 2017 which was 8.87 satang higher per unit

Cleaning supplies increased 0.87 percent such as detergent, bathroom washing liquid, fabric starch and laundry liquid detergent

Gasoline increased 2.22 percent (Benzene 95, Diesel, Gasohol 91 95 E20 E85, NGV, LPG) following the reduction in production in world crude oil market

Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages increased 1.94 percent such as cigarettes and liquor from excise tax structure adjustment that was effective since 16 September 2017

Comparing with August 2016, prices went up 0.86 percent (YoY) from gasoline retail prices which followed the world crude oil market, electricity, seasoning and condiments, non-alcoholic beverages, prepared food, cigarettes and liquor mainly.

Inflation rate averaged Jan.-Sep.2017 comparing with the same period last year increased 0.59 percent (AoA)

Core Inflation increased 0.09 percent (MoM), increased 0.53 percent (YoY) and increased 0.54 percent (AoA)

0.86

101.22

-2.00

-1.00

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

98.0

98.5

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

2014

20

15

2016

jan

.16Fe

b.16

Mar

.16Ap

r.16

May

.16Ju

n.16

Jul.1

6Au

g.16

Sep.

16Oc

t.16

Nov.1

6De

c.16

jan.17

Feb.

17M

ar.17

Apr.1

7M

ay.17

Jun.1

7Ju

l.17

Aug.1

7Se

p.17

(%) YoY (2015=100)

-1.08

6.54

0.53

-0.86

Core Inflation Energy

Fresh food Headline CPI

กองสารสนเทศและดัชนีเศรษฐกิจการค้า

Consumer Price Index News Release-September 2017

Consumer Price Index September 2017

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of average change over time in the prices of consumer items—goods and services

that people buy for day-to-day living.CPI comprises of Food and Non-alcoholic beverages, Apparel and Footwear, Housing and Furnishing, Medical and Personal care, Transportation and Communication, Recreation and Education, Tobacco and alcoholic beverages divisions covering 422 items

Consumer Price Index of September 2017 can be described as the following:

1.Consumer Price Index of September 2017(base year 2015) was 101.22 (August 2017=100.64)

2.The change in CPI of September 2017 comparing with

2.1 Comparing with August 2017 (MoM) increased 0.58 percent.The percentage change in each category are shown

in Chart 1

2.2 Comparing with September 2016(YoY) increased 0.86 percent.The percentage change in each category are

shown in Chart 2

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices. Trade Policy Strategy Office.

This was mainly due to Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category increased 0.70 percent (MoM) as the increase in vegetables and fruits 5.00 percent such as coriander chinese cabbage, celery, cauliflower,l ettuce resulting from the heavy and continuous raining.For fruits, prices increased during Ghost festival such as orange, rambutan, longon, longan, dragon fruit as well as higher prices of pork, eggs, rice, prepared food such as ready made curry, breakfast, ordered food.For Transportation and Communication category increased 0.72 percent from gasoline retail prices up 2.22 percent following the world crude oil prices(Benzene 95, diesel, gasohol 91 95 E20 E85, NGV, LPG), boat fares which were higher with diesel prices.Besides, there were higher prices in Housing and Furnishing category 0.51 percent from electricity(2.62 percent) according to Ft adjustment during September-December 2017 higher 8.87 Satang per Unit as well as excise tax adjustment of cigarettes and liquor resulting in 1.94 percent higher in Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category

This was mainly due to Food and Non-alcoholic beverages category up 0.06 percent such as fresh vegetables, instant coconut milk, groung coconut, tamarinds, ready to drink coffee, cold coffee, food supplement. Housing and Furnishing category up 1.07 percent(house rent, electricity).Medical and Personal care category up 0.21 percent (drugs, out-patient medical care services, dental fee, blood test fee).Transportation and Communication category up 2.25 percent (gasoline such as Benzene 95, Gasohol 91 95 E20 E85 NGV LPG, car and motorcycle).Reading and Recreation category up 0.53 percent (travelling domestically and internationally).Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category up 2.06 percent(cigarettes, beer, wine, liquor).Apparel and Footwear category up 0.11 percent (men clothes, women and children shoes)

Period Change Percent

2.1 August 2017 (MoM) INCREASE +0.58

2.2 September 2016 (YoY)

2.3 Average 9 months 2017(AoA) (Jan.-Sep. 2017) comparing with (Jan.-Sep.2016)

INCREASE INCREASE

+0.86

+0.59

0.58

0.70

0.00

0.51

0.06

0.72

-0.01

1.94

Headline CPI

Food and Non-alcoholic…

Apparel and Footwear

Housing and Furnishing

Medical and Personal…

Transport and…

Recreation and reading

Tobacco and alcoholic…

0.86

0.06

0.11

1.07

0.21

2.25

0.53

2.06

Headline CPI

Food and Non-…

Apparel and…

Housing and…

Medical and…

Transport and…

Recreation and…

Tobacco and…



2.3 Averaged 9 months (Jan.-Sep.2017 comparing with Jan.-Sep.2016)(AoA) increased 0.59 percent.The percentage

change in each category are shown in Chart 3

3.Inflation forecasting(2017) Trade Policy Strategy Office(TPSO) projected that inflation will be between 0.4-1.0 from previously 0.7-1.7, under these assumptions:

4. ปัจจัยที่ส่งผลกระทบต่ออัตราเงินเฟ้อ

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices.Trade Policy Strategy Office.

CPI section. Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices.Trade Policy Strategy Office.Ministry of Commerce. 563 Nonthaburi 1 Road, Muang, Nonthaburi Call 02 507 5847 Fax 02 507-5825 Call Center 1203

www.price.moc.go.th

Projection 1. Economic growth (%)

3.50

(3.0 – 4.0)

Continuous increase because of higher household expenditure and recovery in Export • Higher household expenditure following higher farmers income • Measure supporting low income earners through national welfare card

reducing expenditure • Export expansion from recovery in the world market • Tourists figure increase continuously • Government expenditure still the engine of growth

2. Dubai Oil Prices (USD / Barrel)

50.0

(45.0 - 55.0)

Demand for oil is higher according to the economic recovery • OPEC agreed on the limitation of oil production • Seasonal needs in winter and economic recovery • Political conflict in Middle East and natural disasters

3. Foreign exchange (Baht / USD)

34.0

(33.5 – 34.5)

Baht/USD tends to appreciate at the end of the year • Continuous capital flow from abroad • Current account surplus as foreign investors relieving worriness about

Thai political situation • Uncertainty of FED interest adjustment • Korean Peninsula situation

Supporting factors Risk factors

Household sector demand started to recover relevant to production and farmers income as well as measure supporting low income earners through national welfare card reducing expenditure.

Uncertainty of major trading partners trade policies influenced on export

Export expansion from recovery in the world market and tourist figure increased continuously

World oil prices showed the upward trend affecting retail gasoline prices in the country

Government expenditure in the fiscal year 2017 Uncertainty of FED interest adjustment and Korean Peninsula situation

This was mainly due to Transportation and Communication category increased 2.55 percent(gasoline such as Benzene 95, Diesel, Gasohol 91 95 E20 E85 NGV).Reading and Recreation category increased 0.57 percent(travelling expenses, educational expenses).Tobacco and Alcoholic beverages category increased 2.06 percent (cigarettes, wine, liquor).Medical and Personal care category increased 0.30 percent (drug, personal care items) While Housing and Furnishing decreased -0.15 percent(electricity, cleaning supplies)as well as Food and Non-alcoholic beverages decreased -0.07 percent (rice, vegetables, fruits and eggs)

0.59

-0.07

0.02

-0.15

0.30

2.55

0.57

2.06

Headline CPI

Food and Non-alcoholic…

Apparel and Footwear

Housing and Furnishing

Medical and Personal…

Transport and…

Recreation and reading

Tobacco and…

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5. Table of CPI and Percentage change

* CPI deducting fresh food and energy Download news release in infographic at :

(2015 = 100)


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Weight September 2017 August 2017

Items Sep.17 Index %Change Index %Change

Sep.17 Sep.16 M/M Y/Y A/A Aug.17 M/M Y/Y A/A

Headline CPI 100.00 101.22 100.36 0.58 0.86 0.59 100.64 0.11 0.32 0.56

Food and Non-alcoholic beverages 36.41 102.13 102.07 0.70 0.06 -0.07 101.42 -0.24 -0.92 -0.08

Rice, flour and cereal products 2.90 97.12 99.57 0.25 -2.46 -2.02 96.88 -0.27 -2.79 -1.97

Meat, poultry and fish 6.59 101.85 102.37 0.07 -0.51 0.03 101.78 -0.02 -0.73 0.10

Eggs and diary products 1.56 100.64 103.64 0.61 -2.89 -1.88 100.03 -0.08 -3.12 -1.74

Vegetables and Fruits 4.70 106.03 106.49 5.00 -0.43 -3.50 100.98 -2.35 -7.34 -3.88

- Fresh vegetables 1.88 105.23 100.63 5.88 4.57 -7.58 99.39 -2.74 -4.70 -9.00

- Fresh fruits 2.39 104.69 109.65 4.98 -4.52 -2.35 99.72 -2.46 -10.80 -2.07

Seasoning and Condiments 1.71 101.38 101.27 -0.12 0.11 1.47 101.50 -0.34 0.63 1.66

Non-alcoholic beverages 1.72 101.12 100.53 -0.01 0.59 0.95 101.13 -0.09 0.60 0.99

Prepared food at home 8.71 102.60 101.34 0.11 1.24 1.09 102.49 0.38 1.13 1.07

Food away from home 8.52 102.34 101.30 0.01 1.03 1.20 102.33 0.05 1.08 1.23

Non-food and beverages 63.59 100.72 99.41 0.50 1.32 0.98 100.22 0.32 1.03 0.93

Apparel and Footwear 2.86 100.42 100.31 0.00 0.11 0.02 100.42 0.12 -0.09 0.01

Housing and Furnishing 22.91 99.69 98.63 0.51 1.07 -0.15 99.18 0.00 0.57 -0.30

Medical and Personal care 6.20 101.11 100.90 0.06 0.21 0.30 101.05 -0.12 0.22 0.31

Transport and Communication 23.91 100.69 98.47 0.72 2.25 2.55 99.97 0.86 2.10 2.59

- Public transport services 2.04 99.95 99.80 0.00 0.15 0.10 99.95 0.02 0.15 0.09

- Motor Fuel 7.55 101.42 93.78 2.22 8.15 10.24 99.22 2.64 8.30 10.52

- Communication 4.25 99.94 99.97 0.01 -0.03 -0.04 99.93 -0.01 -0.04 -0.04

Recreation and reading 6.16 101.54 101.00 -0.01 0.53 0.57 101.55 0.01 0.61 0.58

Tobacco and alcoholic beverages 1.55 115.86 113.52 1.94 2.06 2.06 113.65 0.01 0.11 2.06

Core Inflation 72.75 101.44 100.91 0.09 0.53 0.54 101.35 0.05 0.46 0.54

Fresh food and energy 27.25 100.60 98.85 1.90 1.77 0.76 98.72 0.26 -0.08 0.64

- Fresh food 15.75 101.93 103.04 1.58 -1.08 -1.57 100.34 -0.76 -3.29 -1.63

- Energy 11.50 98.37 92.33 2.35 6.54 4.72 96.11 1.73 5.51 4.49




A Brief Explanation of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Inflation

Division of Trade Information and Economic Indices, Trade Policy Strategy Office, Ministry of Commerce is

the organisation compiling and disseminating Consumer Price Index (CPI) monthly. The objectives is to measure

cost of living of people as well as movement of prices in the form of “Inflation”. CPI has been developed continuously and has rebasing every 4-5 years.

Recently, Committee of Indices compiling and developing which comprises of the senior advisors and

experts from both public and private sectors had concensus on rebasing CPI from 2011 to 2015 referring Economic

and Social of Households Survey of National Statistics Office to re-structure the expenditure in the basket of goods so that index will be up to date relevant to consumption pattern as well as comply with the international standard. Consumer Price Index base year 2015 covers 422 items(base year 2011 covered 450 items) including 7

categories of goods and services those are essential to the living of people : 1) Food and Non-alcoholic beverages

category 2)Apparel and Footwear category 3) Housing and Furnishing category 5) Transportation and

Communication category 6) Recreation and Reading category 7) Tobacco and alcoholic beverage.CPI is

computed by comparing prices of goods over time to the base year which is set as 100.However, households under

this calculation are represented by household in metropolitan area with 1-5 people and 12,000-62,000 Baht/month in

Bangkok and suburban area and all 4 regions of Thailand in 43 provinces. 1

Headline Inflation is the measure of average change over time in the prices of consumer items-good and

services that people buy for day-to-day living (base year: 2015)

Core Inflation is the headline CPI deducted fresh food prices(which are fluctuated and seasonal) and

energy prices(which are not in control of Monetary Policy). The items left are subjected to market mechanism and can be provided the fundamental inflation picture of Thai Economy

Core Inflation rate is the percent change in Consumer Price Index which calculate from headline CPI

deducted by fresh food and energy prices.

In conclusion, CPI is to measure inflation of the economy which is one of the economic indicators.To

analyze,we will take all the factors those affect the prices into consideration such as the factors those has influence on cost of production i.e.gasoline cooking

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1 43 provinces in the index computation are

Bangkok and suburban 1.Bangkok 2.Nonthaburi 3.Pathumthani 4.Samutprakan

Central region 5.Ayutthaya 6. Lopburi 7.Singhburi 8.Chonburi 9.Rayong 10.Chanburi 11.Prajeenburi

12.Ratchaburi 13.Supunburi 14.Petchburi 15.Prajuabkhirikun

Northern region 16.Nakhonsawan 17.Taak 18.Prae 19.Chiengmai 20.Chiengrai 21. Uttraladit 22.Pitsanulok

23.Petchaboon 24.Naan

North eastern region 25.Nakhonratchasima 26.Khonkaen 27.Surin 28.Ubonratchathani 29.Nongkai 30.Srisaket

31.Mookdahan 32.Udonthani 33.Roi-ed 34.Nakhonpanom

Southern region 35.Surathani 36.Nakhonsithannarat 37.Trang 38.Songkhla 39. Yala 40.Phuket 41.Krabi 42.Narathiwat

43.Ranong

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