NEWSSITUATIONTRACKINGOFLIBERIA

Location:RepublicofLiberiaIssue:‘ElectoralTensionsThreatensConductofRun-offElections’Date:October23–31,2017

COMMUNITYPROFILING

CRITICALSTAKEHOLDERS INCIDENTPROFILING

BasicDemographyandGeographyLiberia:LiberiaisinWestAfricawithapopulationsizeofabout4,001,855people1.The country is bordered bySierra Leone, Cote D’Ivoire, GuineaandtheAtlanticOcean.Thereare15political subdivisions known asCounties 2 ,including Montserradothe location of the capital City,Monrovia.Montserrado is politicallyinfluentialnotonlyasthehostofthecountry’scapital,butalsobecauseofits disproportionately highpopulation; it is estimated thatalmosthalfofallLiberianslivewithinGreater Monrovia. In the 2017electoral cycle, a total of 1,903,229registeredtovote,ofwhich52%aremales and 48% females. The totalnumber of valid votes cast in thepresidential was 1,553,348. TheCoalition for Democratic Change(CDC) candidate, George Weah had38.4% while the Unity Party’s (UP)JosephBoakaihad28.8%atthefirstballot.PoliticsandGovernanceLiberia has a mixed legal system ofcommon law (based on Anglo-

Direct Actors: National ElectionsCommission, Supreme Court ofLiberia,UnityParty,LibertyParty,All Liberian Party, Coalition forDemocratic Change, the LiberiaNational Police & other Politicalgroups.Affected Persons: Communitymembers, especially politicalparty supporters and generalelectorates.Interested Actors: ECOWAS, AU,UN, USA,Regional and NationalCivilSocietyactors.

Liberians,on10thOctober2017wenttothepollstoelectanewPresidentandmembersoftheHouseofRepresentativesinthefirst electionsmanaged entirely by Liberians since the end ofcivil war in 2003. Local and international Observer groupsajudgedtheelectionstobe generallypeaceful,althoughtheyidentified a number of challengess such as the late arrival ofpollingmaterialsandlatestartofthepolls,omissionsofnamesfromthefinalregister,changeofvotingprecinctswithoutpriornotice to voters, adequately training or knowledgeable aboutpolling procedures of pollinng officials, among others. Duringthe first round, there were 1,553,348 valid votes cast in thepresidential election. The Coalition for Democratic Change(CDC) candidate, George Weah had 38.4% while the UnityParty’s(UP)JosephBoakaihad28.8%atthefirstballot.Arun-offslatedfor7thNovember2017betweentheCDCandUPwasannounced by the National Elections Commission (NEC) ongrounds that no political party met the constitutionalrequirementofanabsolutemajorityor50%plus1vote tobedeclaredawinner.4Post–ElectionContentionsBarelysevendaystotheconductofthepresidentialrun-offinline with constitutional provisions, the ruling Unity Party hasdeclared a total lack of confidence in the Chairperson of theNationalElectionsCommission(NEC)andtheNEC’sCapacitytoconduct theNovember7,2017 run-off.The rulingUnityPartyin collaboration with the All Liberian Party and the LibertyParty,inajointpressconferenceon28thOctober2017,furtheraccused President Ellen Johnson-Sirleaf of interference andmanipulationof theelectoralprocesswhensheallegedlyheld

1HouseholdIncomeandExpenditureSurvey2014oftheLiberiaInstituteofStatistics&Geo-InformationServices(LISGIS)2The15countiesofLiberiaareBomi,Bong,Gbarpolu,GrandBassa,GrandCapeMount,GrandGedeh,GrandKru,Lofa,Margibi,Maryland,Montserrado,Nimba,RiverCess,RiverGee,Sinoe4Article 83b of the 1986 Constitution of the Republic of Liberia states that “All elections of public officers shall bedeterminedbyanabsolutemajorityofthevotescast.Ifnocandidateobtainsanabsolutemajorityinthefirstballot,asecond ballot shall be conducted on the second Tuesday following. The two candidates who received the greatestnumbersofvotesonthefirstballotshallbedesignatedtoparticipateintherun-offelection”.

SituationTracking isaperiodicanalytical reportdesignedbyWANEP through itsNationalEarlyWarningSystem(NEWS)tomonitorthechangingtrendsofspecificconflictthreatascivilsocietysupporttopeaceandsecurityinLiberia

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Americanlaw)andcustomarylaw.and a Republican form ofgovernment with three branchesincluding Legislature, Judiciary andExecutive.Thisformofgovernmentcallsfortheconduct of elections for Presidentand House of Representatives afterevery six years, while the electionsfortheHouseofSenateisconductedaftereverynineyears.Thepresidenthas a maximum of two terms inoffice while the members of theLegislature are elected as long asthey enjoy the confidence of theLiberianpeople3.

secret meetings with NEC Magistrates.The three partiesconsideredthisasanactof‘intimidationandinducement’andhave therefore raised concernswhich they indicatedmust beaddressedbeforetherun-off.The parties through the statement, outlined ‘increasing anddisturbing reports of alleged massive fraud’ ranging fromwidespreadandsystematicfraud,incompetence,inefficiencies,including the omission of voters’ names from the finalregistrationrollanddeliberateactionsand/orinactionsonthepart of the NEC that prevented thousands of Liberians fromvotingduringtheOctober10th,2017polls.In a rebuttal to the press conference, the Office of thePresidentissuedastatementonOctober30indicatingthattheallegationslevelledagainstPresidentSirleafwerebaseless.Thestatement further noted that the allegations by the threepolitical parties fell in the category of "hate speech" and"inciting language" which President Sirleaf insisted should becondemned and disavowed by all peace-loving Liberians. Thestatement clarified that meetings, interactions or exchangesbetweentheOfficeofthePresidentandtheNationalElectionsCommission were consistent with constitutional provisions toensurethattheelectoralprocesswassupportedbytheLiberianGovernment.

WritofProhibitionMeanwhile, the Liberty Party has requested a Writ ofProhibitionandare-runoftheOctober10th,2017presidentialand legislative elections, citing mass irregularities and fraudandhasbeen joinedbytherulingUnityParty, theAllLiberianPartyandtheAlternativeNationalCongress.The Supreme Court has scheduled Thursday, November 022017forahearingwiththeNECandtheLibertyPartytoshowcausewhytheNovember7th ,2017run-offelectionshouldbehalted.Thecourthas furtherputatemporaryhalt totheNECactivitiesuntilthehearingisconducted.AnECOWASmediationteam made up of the ECOWAS Chair, and the President ofGuinea together with the AU, have met with the keycontenderstotryandresolvethepoliticalimpasse.

3Article83(a)ofthe1986ConstitutionoftheRepublicofLiberiastatesthat“votingforthePresident,Vice-President,membersoftheSenateandmembersoftheHouseofRepresentativesshallbeconductedthroughouttheRepubliconthesecondTuesdayinOctoberofeachelectionyear.

SituationTracking isaperiodicanalytical reportdesignedbyWANEP through itsNationalEarlyWarningSystem(NEWS)tomonitorthechangingtrendsofspecificconflictthreatascivilsocietysupporttopeaceandsecurityinLiberia

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OPPORTUNITIES/RECOMMENDATIONS

o ThepromptresponseofECOWASandAUisapositivestepatthestrategicleveltowards

resolving the current political stalemate. Their intervention is expected to contribute

towardsaquickconsensusofallpartiesinvolvedtoreachapeacefulresolution.

o There is the need for extensive dialogue andquiet diplomacy on the part of eminent

Liberian citizens and other stakeholders to convince aggrieved candidates and their

supporters to continue to respect the Rule of Law and repose confidence in the

country’sSupremeCourtinresolvinganygrievances.Inthisregard,theexperiencesof

thetheLiberiaElectionsEarlyWarningandResponseGroup(LEEWARG)-whichismade

upofeminentpersonalities, includingdiplomats, religiousand traditional leaders, civil

society groups , Women’s groups, ECOWAS, AU, UN – could be leveraged on to

coordinateresponseoptionstomaintainpeaceandsecurityduringandafterthecourt

decision.

o NECshouldputinplacemechanismstorebuildpublicconfidenceinitsabilitytomanage

theelectoralprocess.Thisshould include,butnot limitedtoprovidingregularupdates

to the general populace on its interventions and activities to avoid speculations and

rumours. NECshouldaddressallconcernsandsuspicionsofstakeholdersbyproviding

factsandevidenceinatransparentmanne;.

o The National Police and other security actors should continue to ensure adequate

security is provided to hotspot and high crime areas in order to reduce the risk of

clashes between party supporters using a rights-based approach. Adequate security

should alsobeprovided toNECofficials andmembersof the judiciary responsible for

adjudicating on this matter. The National Police should utilize the local media to

disseminate security information and channels of communication/hotlines that will

ensurethesecurityofallstakeholdersespeciallyinhotspotareas;

o Aggrieved political parties should maintain maturity and tolerance in persuing their

respective concerns to avoid violence that may lead to the disruption of the run-off

election;

o The media should continue its peace messages on non-violence targeted at youth

groupsandpoliticalpartysupporters.Itshouldalsoavoidpropagatingincitefullanguage

andunsubstantiatedinformationandallegationsagainstindividualsorgroups.