Nexos desarrollo - cultivos ilícitos y tres propuestas para el próximo siguiente siglo

Liliana M. Dávalos

Banco de la República17 y 18 Julio 2017

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What we do in the lab The Dávalos Lab

A double mission

Biological diversityEvolution Extinctionincrease decrease

Come to ColEvol! 17 August 2017

Biological diversityEvolution Extinctionincrease decrease

Focus on deforestation A recent headline

Biological diversityEvolution Habitat lossincrease decrease

Coca = deforestation Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

Fight coca, fight deforestation… Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

Analyzing social factorsSánchez Cuervo & Aide 2013 Ecosystems Armenteras et al. 2013 Reg. Environ. Change Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech.

The chicken or the egg Dávalos 2016  Int. J. Drug Policy

Answers require a change in perspective The egg came first!

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

Changing my own perspective Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

A pattern emerges

• Sources are often dissertations

• Each focuses primarily on one area

• Most sources written by students in German universities

• At first, I had no access…

So I waited Wesche 1968 U. of Florida

Similarities

• Schuurman 1978 Tijdschr. Econ. Soc. Ge.

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

More similarities

• Brücher 1977 Geogr. Z.

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

A remarkable spatial pattern Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

A spatial relationship Dávalos et al. 2016 Bioscience

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

The Amazonian frontier Denevan 1966 Geogr. Rev.

Charter and declaration of Punta del Este

INCORA 1974 IICAPresidents of America 1967 Punta del Este Declaration

This is the past

Etter et al. 2006 J. Environ. Manage.

Brazil

Bolivia

Peru

Colombia

Ecuador

Coca cultivation

Government-sponsored

before 1979

1990/1992

Projects

Coca cultivation

High

Low

2014

Percent forestHigh

Low

Probability of coca

a b c

This is the present: Projects & roads ~ carbon emissions Global Forest Watch Climate 2017

The present No longer remote

This is the future (in part) Nepstad et al. 2008 Philos. Trans. R. Soc. Lond. B Biol. Sci.

This is the future (in part) Ray et al. 2015 Mongabay

What happens when the frontier closes? 1869

Frontier closes, forest vanishes Stanton 2014 Biol. Cons.

The forest has too much value!

• To the people who live there now• Not everyone wants the

roads• Some want roads but not

destruction• Aesthetic

• This should not be underestimated

• In biodiversity of today and future use

• As carbon storage

One reason why we need the forest MIDAS Project, Swansea University

First proposal: protect NOW

• We must protect the forests• NOW• The forest frontier will

close• But need for storage is

imminent• Price of carbon storage will rise

• How?• Ley 2• Protected areas• Collective titles

Ley 2 1959

• Covers virtually all forests of the country

• Subtractions include• Colonization projects • Land titling programs

(spontaneous colonization)

Armenteras et al. 2017 Ecol. Appl.

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Figure 2

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An example from Guaviare Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.

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3035404550

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NP

1500

2000

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28 30 32 34 36 38 40

Pasture

150200250300350400

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0.51.01.52.02.5

Coca

500

550

600

650

700 ●●

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3035404550

PA

(ha)

150

200

250

300

350

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28 30 32 34 36 38 40

2468101214

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0.51.01.52.02.5

90

100

110

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3035404550PLAND

EN

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95100105110115120

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28 30 32 34 36 38 40PLAND

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600

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0.51.01.52.02.5PLAND

Figure 2

BA

G

C

E FD

H I

253035404550

2001 2004 2007 201025

30

35

40

2001 2004 2007 2010

1

2

3

2001 2004 2007 2010

PLA

ND

K L M

Protected areas Dávalos et al. 2011 Env. Sci. & Tech. Armenteras et al. 2006 Ecol. Indic. Sánchez-Cuervo & Aide 2013 Ecosphere

Collective titlingWRI 2016 Climate benefits, tenure costs

Key points, Protect NOW

• Ley 2 ✘• Protected areas

(parks) ✔• Collective titling ✔

Dávalos et al. 2014 Biol. Cons.

Time to pay the bills But how?

Second proposal: a market for deforestation

• Goals are to reduce deforestation• But deforestation rates

have risen instead• National commitment ≠ local

commitment• Conditions fluid

• Shifts in policy• Demobilization

A man holding a Colombian flag walks in Meta, Colombia. ‘The Farc would limit logging to two hectares a year in the municipality,’ says the mayor of a town in the province.

Brodzinsky 2017 The Guardian

Álvarez 2001 Environmentalist

Cap and trade EPA 2016 Our nation’s air

Can Colombia do it? Fontecha 2016 Mongabay

• Environmental markets already exist (water)• Policies in place but not widely known

Key points, Market for deforestation

• Development and demobilization create access• Access generates

deforestation• Market can set targets for

local actors• Municipalities• Corporaciones

Regionales• Private sector

• And trade can help meet national targets

The inequality of inequality Piketty 2013 Capital in the

Twenty-first Century

A modest inequality

• In long run• rforest > rproperty

• But right now• rforest < rproperty

• Therefore forest loss

Third proposal: Raise the return on forest

• Market in deforestation can be part of this• Conserve and get dividend

from another actor• But need other sources of

return that don’t require clearing

• Therefore• All road extensions need local forest reserves

• Develop parts of local forests for tourism

Example: Mount Rushmore Far from everything and

completely artificial

I.e., parks don’t have to be just for the intrepid E.g., Los Nevados

Key points, Raise the return on forest

• More people visiting can mean more protection

• More people employed can mean more protection

• More people benefitting means more protection

Thanks!