nextgen modeling in naspac

Presented to: NAS-Wide Simulation Workshop

By: Kimberly Noonan, FAA NextGen and Ops Planning

Date: January 28, 2010

Federal AviationAdministrationNextGen Modeling

in NASPAC

Federal AviationAdministration 2NextGen Modeling in NASPAC

28 January 2010

Modernized NASPAC Environment

Fleet Evolution

TrajectoryModule

SectorCrossings

CoreQueuingModel

CapacityScheduler

FutureScheduleGenerato

r

OutputParser

ItineraryGeneration

Industry/RegulatoryResponse

GDPGenerator

Preprocessor

(Demand)

OutputParser

Preprocessor (Capacity)


28 January 2010

ETMS

TAF

Modernized NASPAC Environment

Wx = weather TAF = Terminal Area ForecastMAP = Monitor Alert ParameterETMS = Enhanced Traffic Management System

Pareto Curves

MAP Values

Wx

Flight Table

Airport Table

Sector Table

Fleet Evolution

UnconstrainedTraj.-Based

Forecast (2D)

ConstrainedTraj.-Based

Forecast (2D)

TrajectoryModule

4DTrajectories

SectorCrossings

CoreQueuingModel

Delay Wx

Time dependentAirport Capacities

Time dependentSector Capacities

UnsatisfiedDemand

CapacityScheduler

FutureScheduleGenerator

OutputParser

ItineraryGeneration

Industry/RegulatoryResponse

WindField

SectorGeometries

Fuel Burn Rate

Δ Fuel Burn

FlightDelays

FleetForecast

GDPGenerator

Flow RestrictionDefns & Caps


28 January 2010

Airport Capacity Scheduler

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

0.0 20.0 40.0 60.0 80.0 100.0 120.0 140.0

Departures per Hour

Arr

ival

s pe

r Hou

r

• Modeling airport capacity– Previously

• Used ceiling and visibility to determine VMC, MMC, and IMC conditions and apply associated capacity curve

– Now• Considers wind speed, wind

direction, and time of day• Use special condition curves

– Configuration specific– Wake Turbulence Mitigation for

Departures (WTMD)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

0 20 40 60 80 100 120

Departures (/hr)

Arr

lival

s (/h

r) VMCMMCIMC


28 January 2010

• Previously– No GDP module

• Now– GDP generator identifies GDPs and assigns expected departure clearance times

• Given flight times and weather dependent airport capacities• Flights assigned arrival slot based on priority

– Distance based tiers– International flights exempt

– Airport specific GDP triggers • Max flight delay• Max queue length

• Next– Airline response and cancellation module– Probabilistic GDP triggers– Probabilistic weather forecast

Ground Delay Program (GDP)Generator


28 January 2010

• Model Q-Routes– Previously

• No special treatment

– Now• Allow equipped flights,

between certain city pairs to fly special routes

• Impose aircraft separation standards using restrictions

Performance Based Navigation (PBN)

2013 Corridor 3

2014 Corridor 2

2015 Corridor 1

2016 Corridor 4

2017 Corridor 5

No.Calif.

So.Calif.

So.FL

NY

DC

LasVegas

Phoenix

Denver

No.TX

Houston

Chicago

ATL,CLT

2013 Corridor 3

2014 Corridor 2

2015 Corridor 1

2016 Corridor 4

2017 Corridor 5

2013 Corridor 32013 Corridor 3





No.Calif.

So.Calif.

So.FL

NY

DC

LasVegas

Phoenix

Denver

No.TX

Houston

Chicago

ATL,CLT


28 January 2010

Oceanic Separation• Previously

– Flights flew unconstrained in oceanic airspace

• Now– Oceanic separation

standards imposed using static restrictions

– Considers lead/following aircraft type/equipage to determine separation

• Next – Incorporate altitude

restrictions– Oceanic in-trail climb and

descent

Area/Track System CEP/PACOTS NOPAC WATRS NAT MNPS Minimum Track Spacing Equipage 50 NM 50 NM 50 NM 53 – 60 NM

Lateral Separation RNP10/RNP4, HF Voice

50 NM 50 NM 50 NM N/A

RNP 4, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC

30 NM 50 NM 50 NM N/A

NAT MNPS authorized

N/A N/A 60 NM 60 NM

Others 100 NM 100 NM 90 NM 90 NM Longitudinal Separation

RNP10, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC

50 NM 50 NM 10 minutes, mach assigned

10 minutes, mach assigned

RNP 4, HF Voice, ADS-C, CPDLC

30 NM 50 NM 10 minutes, mach assigned

10 minutes, mach assigned

Others 10 minutes 10 minutes test 15 minutes 15 minutes Vertical Separation

Up to FL 280 1000 feet FL 290 - 410

1000 feet between RVSM authorized aircraft 2000 feet if both passing aircraft not RVSM authorized

FL 420 and Above 2000 feet

ZOA


28 January 2010

• Standard Terminal Arrival Routes (STARs)– Previously

• All flights had continuous descent arrivals• Estimated time/fuel inefficiencies by

historical data analysis– Now

• Assign each flight to a STAR – based on route and equipage

• Define more detailed 4-D trajectory – with altitude restrictions

• Standard Instrument Departures (SIDs)– Similar technique implemented

SIDs and STARs


28 January 2010

• Previously– Baseline equipment data used

throughout forecast• Soon

– Evolve future fleet equipment to meet forecast

– Equipment categories include• Datacomm • ADS-B In and Out• PBN: RNAV and RNP

Equipage Evolution

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Airc

raft

with

Equ

ippe

d Ca

pabi

lity

(%)

Calendar Year

Major Airlines Forecast ScenariosPBN Equipped Capability

RNAV - 1, RNAV - 2

RNP - 0.3

RNP - 0.3 with RF

RNP AR

Notional PBN Forecast

Air Transport ADS-B Equipage

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

2031

2032

2033

2034

2035

Year End

Scen A: ADS-B Out&InScen B: ADS-B OutScen B: ADS-B In

Notional ADS-B Forecast


28 January 2010

Next Steps• Incorporate Traffic Flow Management (TFM)

– Airspace Flow Programs

• Improve Terminal Approach Control (TRACON)– Update and automate arrival fix and departure fix flows– Incorporate fix balancing

• Improve local and en-route weather effects– Model severe IMC conditions

• Incorporate dynamic events– Dynamic rerouting, dynamic sectorization

• Include Monte Carlo simulation capability– Re-factored source code

• Validation, validation, validation


28 January 2010

Questions?Questions?

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