nfais 2013 conference keynote trends he rev
DESCRIPTION
Keynote for NFAIS identifies tech, learning platforms, content, cultural trends in HE and a look at the developing MOOC trends.TRANSCRIPT
Trends in Higher Education:
An Overview 2013
Prepared by: Pat Sabosik, President
Elm City Consulting, LLC
April 2013
NFAIS Workshop: Trends in Higher Education: Content, Services and Business Models
© Elm City Consulting, LLC 2013
Elm City Consulting, LLC
Elm City Consulting is a management consulting firm with expertise in digital content and product strategy and product management. We advise business-to-business information companies on strategic direction, market segmentation, go-to-market solutions and acquisitions. With more that 20 years of operational experience in Fortune 1000 companies, we bring an analytic and operational approach to every assignment.
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Our work is at the intersection of information, technology and applications. Our experience in corporate planning helps us identify the right solutions for our clients.
Snapshot of High Level Trends
More online programs Increase in online courses and MOOCs drives institutions to
have an online strategy
More emphasis on “self-directed” learning Increase in the number of self-paced, competency-based
programs
Southern New Hampshire University’s College for America: Direct assessment of learning program
US Department of Education endorses competency-based education
Shift in faculty hiring processes Increase in part-time faculty
Demand for master teachers for online courses
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Source: Fox Business, Higher Education Trends to Watch for in 2013 http://www.foxbusiness.com/personal-finance/2013/01/28/higher-education-trends-to-watch-for-in-2013/ http://www.insidehighered.com/news/2013/03/19/feds-give-nudge-competency-based-education
Move towards a $10K college degree, TX and FL making plans
Online and competency combo
Trends in Higher Education 2013
Macro View
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Financial/
Economic Technological
Demographic Political
“Political” category from Jeffrey Selingo, CHE Views March 8, 2013
Technological Trends
Wired campus
Bring your own device (BYOD)
Student analytics Adaptive Learning
Predictive Solutions
Learning informatics
Online & hybrid courses
Multi-user open online course (MOOC)
Mobile Apps
eBooks, content models
Course management systems
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Technological
Student Behavior & Technology
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Financial Trends
Tuition costs
Textbook costs
Research funding
Workforce planning/training
$10K Degree
Endowment values
Decreasing state & federal funding
Student debt
College bankruptcy
Corporate partnerships
Services
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Financial/
Economic
Political Trends
Pell Grants
For-profit colleges
Increase in state funding for research vs decrease in federal dollars -- FL
Academic appointments
Competency vs knowledge-based degrees
Public regulation of post-secondary programs
DOEd and Lumina Foundation for Education goal: 60% of American workforce with a high-quality post-secondary credential by 2025*
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Political
* Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees, report by Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce 2012
A Word About Certificates -- As a MOOC
Outcome and Revenue Opportunity
Shift to credentialing down to a certificate level, followed by an
Associate degree and then Bachelor’s degree
Potential opportunity for private, non-profit institutions to play a
role in certificate and training programs
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* Certificates: Gateway to Gainful Employment and College Degrees, report by Georgetown University Center on Education & the Workforce 2012
“The rapid growth of certificates over the past 30 years is a promising signal that students and institutions are recognizing the value of certificates at an increasing rate.”
Demographic Trends
Student populations Decreasing
Older
Demand for “life-long learning”
Tenured faculty retirements Impact on Accreditation
Adjuncts standing, the majority of instructional faculty
“Outsourced” education
Courses and employment Skills and Competency
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Demographic
Student Demographics Forecasted Increase Drives Online Course Delivery
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Source: Campus Technology; LoudCloud Systems Presentation 2013
Driving institutions to have an online strategy
Trends at Classroom & Course Level
“Content View”
Online
Courses
Adaptive
Learning
Services
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Online Hybrid MOOCs
Platforms Analytics New Content Models
Recruitment Retention
Tutoring Services Competency/
Assessment Course Dev Tools
Course Dev Services Hosting Platform
Asset Management ePortfolios
Alumni Services
Platform: LMS Adaptive Learning Publisher MOOC Combination
Adaptive Learning Solutions Personalizing Learning for Individual Students
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Test Prep
+
Cengage
Mix of traditional publishers, new publisher entrants, and platforms shaping new learning solutions
Sources: Education Growth Advisors, http://edgrowthadvisors.com/gatesfoundation, Wikipedia, Web Searches
Tools to build online courses, fee-based
Business Models for Adaptive Learning
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Disrupts traditional assessment & textbook-test model
New entrants with new business models
Services business
Online Course Growth What’s Happening on Campuses Today
6.7 million students enrolled in one or more online courses
in the fall 2011 term, an increase of 8.5%, 570,000
students
10% growth rate for online enrollments which far
exceeded the 2% growth in overall HE student population
31% of HE students now take at least one online course
65% of HE institutions now say that online learning is a
critical part of their long-term strategy
MOOCs driving this
Stevens Institute of Technology, including Web Campus, in
new 10-year strategic plan, as example
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Source: Going the Distance: Online Education in the US 2011 http://www.babson.edu/Academics/centers/blank-center/global-research/Documents/going-the-distance.pdf
Online Course Platforms (Including MOOCs and Hybrid Courses)
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Big 3 from top brand institutions
Blackboard initiative
Consortium of 12 UK institutions
“Connected” learning environment
Distance learning Tools to build online courses, fee-based
Course development tools Course fees, instructor revenue
Online course network Tools and platform
http://www.mooc-list.com/
Growing list of online courses
Business Models for Online
Courses: A Few Views on Revenue
Big 3 MOOC course providers:
"The most significant short-term benefit
to the top-tier universities [from MOOCs]
is blunting public criticism that wealthy
universities do not provide enough
service to fulfill their public mission and,
therefore, maintain their tax-exempt
status in the United States" ("Shifting
Ground," September 2012, page 4) Moody's Investors
Services.
Wall Street Journal: “Online Courses Look
for a Business Model”by M. Korn & J.Levitz
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142412788732433
9204578173421673664106.html
Foundation and venture funding
May not be free for long
New entrants and service providers
Venture funding
Building service and revenue
programs
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Platform fees
Hosting fees
Course fees
Driving innovation in instructional material
Foundation Funding for Online Courses Foundations Support Educational Innovation More than $100M invested as of spring 2013
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Institution Financing Sources
California, State of $10M/yr
Entry level courses
State funding
MIT $35M Hewlett, Mellon, MIT
Harvard $30M w/MIT for edX
Yale $3M Hewlett
Carnegie Mellon $5.6M Hewlett
UC Irvine $1.6M Hewlett, Boeing, UCI
Open Learning Initiative ~$20M Various foundations
Sources: CHE, “How 4 Colleges Support Online Courses, Oct 12, 2009; Harvard Magazine, “Online Evolution Accelerates” March-April 2013
What Do Faculty Think About Teaching MOOCs?
Chronicle Study
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http://chronicle.com/article/The-Professors-Behind-the-MOOC/137905/?cid=at&utm_source=at&utm_medium=en#id=overview
Economic implications of MOOCs may be more far-reaching than changing content models
Services – Online Course Development
Institutions hiring publishers to build online courses & publishers partnering with software companies
Investment and scale
Pearson & Rutgers partnership building online courses on eCollege platform: virtual classrooms, curriculum, course materials*
John Wiley’s purchase of Deltak.edu, partners with colleges to build and run online courses
Cengage Course 360, a customizable online classroom
McGraw-Hill acquires Tegrity, lecture capture software that enables professors to embed lectures in courses
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Sources: *http://chronicle.com/article/Dont-Call-Them-Textbooks/136835/, Elm City Consulting Data
Services Beyond Courses: SaaS,
Program Design, Recruitment, Retention
Macmillan launches Digital Science division and partners with
companies to provide software tools and services to scientists
SureChem, BioData, Simplectic, Labtivia
Pearson’s acquisition of Embanet & Wiley’s acquisition of
Deltak.edu go beyond course development
Program and curriculum design, online course development,
recruitment, retention, hosting
Changes the relationship between publisher and institution
Shifts value proposition
Changes revenue and cost models for institutions, service
providers, and publishers
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Workforce Readiness: College Majors with the Highest & Lowest Employment Rates
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http://www.upworthy.com/do-you-know-which-college-majors-have-the-highest-and-lowest-employment-rates-2?c=ufb1
Highest in 2012-2013 Agricultural Sciences Pharmacology Educational Administration School Student Counseling Biological & Geophysical Engineering Astronomy & Astrophysics Teacher Education Agricultural Economics Medical Technologies Technicians Atmospheric Sciences & Meteorology Naval Architecture & Marine Engineering Environmental Engineering Nursing Public Policy Industrial Radiology Biological Technologies
Alignment of Industry and Academy for
Workforce Readiness – Ivy Tech
Ivy Tech (Indiana) Corporate College, education & training partner.
Online training, workforce development, partnership with Disney
Institute for brand loyalty and leadership excellence
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http://www.ivytech.edu/corporatecollege/
Summary
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Institutions developing an online strategy
Technology and economics driving new educational
models
Adaptive learning models maturing
MOOCs driving innovation in instructional
materials
Publishers partnering with institutions for
services beyond textbooks
Content and business models
reforming as services
Learning as we know it is
undergoing immense change
Thank you
Pat Sabosik, President
Elm City Consulting, LLC
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Appendix & Update
In the five weeks since I made this presentation at a
National Federation of Advanced Information
Systems workshop, a number of events have
sharpened some of the trends and implications for
the education market.
Additional slides are highlights
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Learning Outcomes in Online Courses
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Source: Going the Distance: Online Education in the US 2011 http://www.babson.edu/Academics/centers/blank-center/global-research/Documents/going-the-distance.pdf
Learning outcomes are expected to improve for online courses as the models improve, social and peer coaching are introduced, and a new generation of learners comfortable in online environments enters higher education
Reducing the Cost of College Textbooks and the Cost
of a College Education are Drivers of Change
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Textbooks US College Tuition
Source: Business Insider -- http://www.businessinsider.com/the-biggest-asset-bubbles-2013-4#textbooks-1
Among the Biggest Asset Bubbles in 2013 – Business Insider
Another View: Growth in Cost of
Education vs Home Prices & CPI
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http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/01/04/college-textbook-prices-increase_n_2409153.html
Online Courses Grow Out of Necessity
and Convenience
Penn State to Invest $20M to Grow World Campus
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Enrollment in online education continues to grow, according to a Sloan Consortium (Sloan-C) survey, which found more than 6.7 million students — almost a third of higher education students — were taking at least one online course in 2011. Sloan-C is a professional society for e-learning practitioners.
http://news.psu.edu/story/275043/2013/04/29/academics/penn-state-invest-20-million-grow-world-campus-45000-students
Business Models Firm Up as Fees and
Course Credit Enter the Mix
American Council on Education’s College Credit
Recommendation Service recommends five Coursera
courses for college credit
Ten state university systems, including SUNY, join
Coursera to develop online and hybrid courses, using
MOOC technology to improve completion rates and
access to higher education
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http://blog.coursera.org/post/42486198362/five-courses-receive-college-credit-recommendations
http://blog.coursera.org/post/51696469860/10-us-state-university-systems-and-public-institutions
Publishers and Course Providers Partner, Some
Textbook Content Available for Free
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http://www.infodocket.com/2013/05/08/new-partnership-sage-will-make-some-textbook-content-available-for-free-to-coursera-faculty-students/ http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/coursera-announces-pilot-program-with-publishers-supplement-online-courses-with-high-1788086.htm
Note: Elsevier has already provided free access to an engineering course textbook used in an edX class
As reported in Library Journal and Market Wire
Headline:
MOOC Platform Players Attract Venture
Funding
The adaptive platform players are generally earlier-stage
businesses, and many are actively pursuing partnership
opportunities with leading publishers, service providers, and
institutions. Simultaneously, established companies are tracking
the progress of these players, and this segment will likely see
considerable investment and M&A activity over the next 12-18
months.
Elm City Consulting is watching this space and MOOC platforms
to see how consolidation and relationships change over the next
two years
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Comments?
Contact:
Pat Sabosik, President
Elm City Consulting, LLC
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