nfl: rb selection for cash games

Course 4: NFL Strategy RB Selection for Cash Games www.rotoql.com 1

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Course 4: NFL Strategy

RB Selection for Cash Games

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RB Selection: Key Stats

Stat Notes

Touches Notes RB opportunity regardless matchup

YpC (Yards per Carry/Catch) Great indicator of performance and perceived ownership

Playcall Distribution Better offenses get more opportunities to score

DvP Matchup Great matchups indicate consistent and chalk plays

Salary Players don’t generally pay up for high-priced QBs

Value FPTs / Salary

Page 3: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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RB Selection: Vegas and Advanced Stats

Stat Notes

Game Flow How a game is expected to play out via Vegas

Spread Larger spread = higher chance of blowout

Over / Under Higher O/U = high possibility of fantasy points

Team Projected Points Relate to opponent helps predict game flow

Snap Count Indicates how much opportunity a player gets during a game

Red Zone Attempts Touches inside the scoring area

Page 4: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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RB Selection: Using Vegas

4Source: Washington Post

Page 5: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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TDs Required to Hit DK Benchmark

5Source: 4for4

Page 6: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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www.rotoql.com 6Source: 4for4

TDs Required to Hit FD Benchmark

Page 7: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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RBs in Cash Game Lineups: Key Elements

● RB CV

● Plus / Minus by Days Rest

● Rushing TD Success Rate by Yard Line

● QL Wire Content

Page 8: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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CV by Position

8Source: 4for4Note: data is from 2013-2014 NFL Season

Coefficient of Variation (CV)

Position

CV by Position

Coefficient of Variation (CV) -- the standard deviation of a data set divided by its mean. CVs can be used as a measure of consistency.

http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-deviation.html

Page 9: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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Plus/Minus by Days Rest

9Source: Fantsay LabsNote: data is from 2014 NFL Season

Number of Days Rest

Plus/Minus

Page 10: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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Rushing TD Success Rate by Yard Line (‘04-‘13)

10Source: 4for4

Page 11: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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NFL Cash Game Lineup Example

Source: DFS Mancave11

Page 12: NFL: RB Selection for Cash Games

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More Resources

Visit our Support Center to watch video tutorials on how to use RotoQL

• rotoql.zendesk.com

Monitor daily fantasy news, strategy and advice articles at the QL Wire

• rotoql.com/qlwire

If you are new to DFS or just need a refresher on the fundamentals, visit RotoU

• rotoql.com/university

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