7/31/2019 NHJ June 4 GOP Survey Results

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June4,2012

POLLSHOWSLAMONTAGNEWITHMODESTLEADOVERSMITHIN

REPUBLICANPRIMARYBETTENCOURTSCANDALHIGHONVOTERSMINDS

NewHampshireJournalispleasedtopresentthetoplineresultsofa522Nautodialsurveyofrandomlyselected,likely2012NewHampshireRepublicanprimaryvoters,and

independentvoters,thatarelikelytovoteinthe2012Republicanstateprimary.The

interviewswereconductedMay31-June2,2012.Thissurveyhasamarginoferrorof+/-4.28atthe95percentconfidenceinterval.Thesurveyresultsareweightedbasedupon

pastprimaryvoterdemographics.

RepublicanPrimaryVoters 89.5%

UndeclaredPrimaryVoters 10.5%

ANALYSIS

OvideLamontagnehasawideleadoverKevinSmith,37-15,thoughgivenLamontagnes

significantadvantageinnameidentificationandimagehis37%ontheballotillustrates

someweaknessasthecampaignseasonofficiallyopensthisweekascandidatesfiletheir

paperworkattheSecretaryofStatesoffice.Nearly50%ofallstateprimaryvotersareundecidedintheRepublicanprimaryraceforGovernormeaningitisstillawide-openrace.

Lamontagnehasagoodfavorableversusunfavorableimage,41-16,andleadsinmost

regionsanddemographicsshowingtremendousstrengthwithconservatives,particularlyamongthreesegmentsofvoters:pro-lifevoters,thoseopposedtosamesexmarriage,and

fiscalconservatives.Lamontagneisclearlybenefittingfromhisthreepreviouscampaignsforoffice,mostrecentlyasacandidateforUSSenatein2010.

Smithisstillavirtualunknownwithonly20%hardnameidentification.Thus,his15%on

theballotsaysmoreaboutsomepossibledispleasurewithLamontagnethanitdoes

positivelyforSmith.Withlownameidentificationandonlya1-1imageratio,favorable

versusunfavorable,Smithhastremendousworktodointhreemonthstimeifheisgoingto

knockoffLamontagne.

Additionally,whilejobsandtheeconomyisthemainconcernamongvotersinotherstates

acrossthecountry,Republicanprimaryvoterscareabouttaxesandspending(33%)nearly

asmuchastheycareaboutjobs(36%).

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Finally,withtherecentresignationofformerRepublicanHouseMajorityLeaderDJ

Bettencourt,afull74%ofRepublicanprimaryvotershaveseen,readorheardabouttheStateHousescandal.However,58%ofvotersdonotbelieveitwillhaveanimpactinthe

fallelections.

FULLTOPLINESURVEYRESULTS

T1.DoyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofKevinSmith?

Favorable 11%

Unfavorable 9%

NoOpinion 23%

NameID 43%

HardNameID 20%

NeverHeardOf 57%

T2.DoyouhaveafavorableorunfavorableopinionofOvideLamontagne?

Favorable 41%Unfavorable 16%

NoOpinion 23%

NameID 80%

HardNameID 57%NeverHeardOf 20%

T3.IftheRepublicanPrimaryelectionforGovernorwerebeingheldtodayforwhomwould

youvote,OvideLamontagneorKevinSmith?

OvideLamontagne 37%

KevinSmith 15%

Undecided 48%

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T4.Generallyspeaking,doyouconsideryourselfconservative,moderate,orliberalon

mostissues?

Conservative 56%

Moderate 33%Liberal 11%

T5.DoyoufavororopposeallowingsamesexmarriageinNewHampshire?

Favor 30%Oppose 57%

Unsure 13%

T6.WhichoneofthefollowingissuesisMOSTimportanttoyouindecidinghowtovotefor

Governor?

Education 11%

Taxesandspending 33%

Gasandenergyprices 5%

Healthcarereformandcost 7%Theeconomyandjobs 36%Moralvalues 8%

T7.Ontheissueofabortion,doyouconsideryourselfpro-lifeorpro-choice?

Pro-life 49%Pro-choice 43%

Dontknow 8%

T8.Haveyouseen,readorheardanythingaboutthescandalinvolvingtheNewHampshire

HouseRepublicanMajorityLeaderDJBettencourt?

Yes 74%

No 26%

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T9.DoyoubelievethatapersonalscandalinvolvingoneRepublicanleaderintheState

HousewillharmtheRepublicanPartyschancesofwinningelectionsthisfall?

Yes 25%

No 58%Dontknow 17%

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