nicholls r 20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin
TRANSCRIPT
The Benefits of Climate Mitigation for Coastal Areas
Robert J. Nicholls
Faculty of Engineering and the Environment Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of Southampton [email protected]
2210 - Coastal Impacts of Climate Change Our Common Future Paris: 7-10 July 2015
Plan
• Introduction
• Climate change and sea-level rise
• Reponses to climate change
• Concluding thoughts
The coastal system: Climate Drivers
Source: IPCC AR4 WG II
Global Sea-Level Rise: 1700 to 2100
Source: Figure 13.27 -- Chapter 13 IPCC AR5 WG1 Report. Compiled paleo-sea-level data from geological evidence to 1880, tide gauge data from 1880 to present, altimeter data since 1993 to present, and central estimates and likely ranges for projections from present to 2100 based on RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) emission scenarios.
Global Sea-Level Rise: 1700 to 2100
Source: Figure 13.27 -- Chapter 13 IPCC AR5 WG1 Report. Compiled paleo-sea-level data from geological evidence to 1880, tide gauge data from 1880 to present, altimeter data since 1993 to present, and central estimates and likely ranges for projections from present to 2100 based on RCP2.6 (blue) and RCP8.5 (red) emission scenarios.
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2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Time
Te
mp
ea
ture
ris
e a
bo
ve
pre
-in
du
sti
ral
(de
g C
)
RCP2.6 global mean surface temperature
RCP4.5 global mean surface temperature
RCP8.5 global mean surface temperature
Global Temperature Rise Model: HadGEM2-ES
Data from: Hinkel et al. 2014
Sea-level rise (Maldives) Model: HadGEM2-ES, including regional (patterned) sea-level rise
Data from: Hinkel et al. 2014
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0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Glo
bal m
ean
sea
-level
rise w
rt 1
985
-2005 (
m)
Time
RCP2.6 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP2.6 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP2.6 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
Temperature and sea level Model: HadGEM2-ES, including regional (patterned) sea-level rise
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Glo
bal m
ean
sea
-level
rise
wrt
1985
-2005 (
m)
Temperature rise with respect to pre-industrial (deg C)
RCP2.6 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP2.6 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP2.6 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP4.5 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (5th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (50th percentile ice sheet melting)
RCP8.5 (95th percentile ice sheet melting)
Sea levels will continue to
rise, even if temperatures
stabilise
Sea-level timescales
Source: http://www.greenfudge.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/ocean-currents.jpg
Sea-Level Rise vs. Emissions: 2000 to 2500
(Source: Figure 13.13 -- Chapter 13 IPCC AR5 WG1 Report)
Planned Adaptation IPCC Approach
Concluding Thoughts
• Human-induced sea-level rise and climate change has a major impact potential for coastal areas
• Climate mitigation has immediate benefits on temperature-related climate change factors
• However, it will stabilise but not stop climate-induced sea-level rise (the sea-level rise ‘commitment’) which continues for centuries
• Hence, the most appropriate climate policy response is a combination of climate mitigation to make sea-level rise manageable and adaptation to the “residual” committed sea-level rise
• Such adaptation will be need to be ongoing with implications for adaptation funding
The Benefits of Climate Mitigation for Coastal Areas
Robert J. Nicholls
Faculty of Engineering and the Environment Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research
University of Southampton [email protected]
2210 - Coastal Impacts of Climate Change Our Common Future Paris: 7-10 July 2015