nickel panorama in brazil - insg · nickel panorama in brazil a view of a country producer jones...
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INTERNATIONAL NICKEL STUDY GROUP17TH SESSION – LISBON – PORTUGAL
NICKEL PANORAMA IN BRAZILA VIEW OF A COUNTRY PRODUCER
Jones BeltherMineral Exploration Director
Votorantim Metais
10-11 May 2007
Largest zinc producer in Latin America
Lagest nickel producer in Latin America
Competitive production costs
3rd largest Brazilian producer of long steel
Integrated Production
Proprietary generation of 60% of its energy needs
Competitive advantage in ore supply
Votorantim Metais
2
Votorantim Metais has plants in 4 Brazilian states, 1 facility in Peru and 1 plant in Colombia.
Zinc – 405 kypy
2 Mines
3 Plants
Nickel – 27 ktpy
Steel Colombia – 315 ktpy
Head Office
2 Mines and Processing
1 Plant 1 Plant
7 Mines
Hydroelectric plants
Igarapava/MG – 210 MW (23.93%)Sobragi/MG – 60 MW (100%)Picada/MG – 50 MW (100%)Campos Novos/SC – 880 MW (20%)Amador Aguiar/MG – 450 MV (12.63%)
Steel Brazil – 470 ktpy
1 Plant
7 Branches
6 Sales offices
Votorantim Metais
Mineral Exploration Office
Ouro Níquel CobreZinco Alumínio Chumbo
US
$/
lb
US
$/
lbU
S$
/lb
US
$/
oz
• The base metals (Cu, Pb, Zn, Ni) prices are facing the highest levels historically considering current dollar.
• Gold is the great mineral exploration investment carrier and presently shows prices almost equivalent to the seventy decade, in current dollar.
• Metal prices follows cycles, but the long term world economy growth indicate a wider cycle in comparison to the ones observed in the past.
• The world economy growth looks much more rational and tend to last longer than previous cycles, maintaining high metal consumption and consequently high prices.
• The Mineral Exploration perspective is good for the future and investment will maintain high with lower annual growth than the two previous years.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
19
74
19
78
19
82
19
86
19
90
19
94
19
98
20
02
20
06
0
4
8
12
16
20
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Strong metal demand drives metal prices to highest historical levels
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Metal Economics Group 2006
Relative nickel price
Relative copper price
Relative gold price
US
$B
PF
PF – Price variation factor
The investment in mineral exploration surpassed the historical levels and in 2006 was higher than historical peak of 1997. 2007 is expected to has a evenhigher amount.
1.8 1.92.3 2.2
2.52.9
3.5
4.65.2
3.7
2.8 2.62.2 1.9
2.4
3.8
5.1
7.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
819
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
0
1
2
3
4
5
Mineral Exploration investment has increased substantialy recently and will keep high
• The variation on investment folowing metal prices cycles is more proeminent for junior along the years.
• The major companies show 50% of variation on investment following metal price cycles, while juniorsreach up to 86%.
• Metal price variations influence drastically the junior and intermediate companies.
• Great part of the juniors investments comes from major companies through JV´s or strategic alliances.
0
2
4
6
8
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20060.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
Majors Juniors Intermediate Gov't/Other
Nickel Gold Copper Zinc
5.2
3.7
2.8 2.62.2 1.9
2.4
3.8
5.1
7.5
US
$ B PF
Positive metal price variations estimulatethe juniors to invest in mineral exploration
Metal Economics Group 2006
PF – Price variation factor
4
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Latin America Canada Africa Australia USA Pacific and Asia Rest of the world
US$B
Mineral Exploration investment in the main regions of the world
Historically Latin America receives the major part of the world investment
• In 2006 the investment in Latin America totaled US$ 1.7B.
• Mexico, Peru, Brazil, Chile e Argentina lead the investment ranking.
• The present high metal price cycle may extend for further years stimulating Mineral Exploration investments.
• This high investment panorama makes evident the good mineral potential of Latin and South America. The majority of investment in Latin America is concentrated in South American countries.
• Brazil needs infrastructure improvements and increments Government investment in basic geological, geochemical and geophysical data to attract even more investment. The country mineral potential is very good, economy is stable and the country is safe.
LATIN AMERICA24%
CANADA19%
OTHERS18%
AFRICA16%
AUSTRALIA11%
USA8%
PACIFIC4%
Mexico23.8%
Peru20.3%
Brazil17.9
Chile13%
Colombia 2.4%
Argentina11%
Equador 2.5%
Guatemala 2%
Suriname 1.8%Bolívia 1.7%
Venezuela 1.4%
Panama 0.7%Guiana 1.4%
Fonte Metal Economics Group 2006
Latin America leads the investment in Mineral Exploration in the world
5
Source: MEG, 2006
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
Au
stra
lia
Can
ad
aU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Peru
Ch
ile
Bra
zil
Mexic
oA
rgen
tin
aS
ou
th A
fric
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nesi
a
Can
ad
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ust
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ed
Sta
tes
Peru
Bra
zil
Ch
ile
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uth
Afr
ica
Mexic
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a
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ust
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ed
Sta
tes
So
uth
Afr
ica
Bra
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Peru
Ch
ile
Mexic
oR
uss
iaA
rgen
tin
a
Can
ad
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ust
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aU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Peru
So
uth
Afr
ica
Mexic
oR
uss
iaB
razil
Ch
ile
Mo
ng
olia
Can
ad
aA
ust
rali
aU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Ru
ssia
Peru
Mexic
oS
ou
th A
fric
aC
hile
Bra
zil
Arg
en
tin
a
Can
ad
aA
ust
rali
aU
nit
ed
Sta
tes
Mexic
oR
uss
iaP
eru
So
uth
Afr
ica
Bra
zil
Mo
ng
olia
Ch
ina
US$ B
2001 2002 2003
2004
2005
2006
6o 5o 5o 8o 9o
8o
Brazil is among the 10 most atractive countries for investment in Mineral Exploration
PRODUCTION Ton / year
100 to 250
70 to 10030 to 7015 to 300 to 15
• The large nickel producers to date are Canada, Russia, Australia, Asia and Central America.
• Brazil has a couple of medium size operations for lateritic and sulfide nickel ore and still leads the production of eletroclitic nickel production in South America.
• The country has historically a low potential for nickel sulfide, but extremely high potential for laterites.
In the nickel world Brazil has a discrete position at present...
Norilsk
Mount Keith Leinster
Black Swan
PT IncoPt Aneka
Buli
SLN Doniaambo
Jinchuan
Pechenga
Sudbury
Voiseys Bay
Falcondo
Moa NickelPunta Gorda
Cerro Matoso Loma de Niquel
6
PRODUCTION Ton / year
30 to 70
15 to 30
0 to 15
• In terms of project Brazil leads together with Oceania and Asia.
• Brazil is a typical tropical country that has a large amount of mafic-ultramafic complexes to develop lateritic nickel ore.
• The majority of the projects are located in the central and south of the north region in areas of good infrastructure and surrounded by a very entrepreneur community.
...but this will change very soon with the project portfolio of Brazil
Koniambo
Goro
Ravensthorpe
Schevchenko
Nonoc
Gag IslandHalmahera
Ambatovy
Kabanga
Musongati
Honeymoon Well
IporáMontes Claros
Barro Alto
Fe-Ni VM
São João do Piauí
Onca-Puma
Vermelho
Serra do Tapa
Jacarezinho
Jacaré
Morro Do Niquel
Santa RitaSem Boné
Morro do Leme Morro do Engenho
Água Branca
Boa Vista
Palestina
Sta RosaSta FéSta Cruz
Vale do SolTerra Morena
Água Limpa
PRODUCTION Ton / year
30 to 70
15 to 30
0 to 15Early stage projects
Codemin 10 AngloAmericano do Brasil 5 PrometálicaNiquelandia 23 VMSerra da Fortaleza 10 VMTOTAL 48Jacaré 45 Anglo Barro Alto 40 Anglo Sem Boné+Morro do Leme 20 Anglo Onça-Puma 47 CVRD Vermelho 45 CVRD Jacarezinho 25 CVRD São João do Piauí 25 CVRD Serra do Tapa 25 Falconbridge Santa Rita 15 MirabelaSanta Fé + Iporá 20 Teck Cominco Montes Claros 25 VM Fe-Ni VM 10 VM Morro do Engenho - CPRMÁgua Branca - CVRD Palestina - MirabelaVale do Sol - CODELCOTerra Morena - CODELCOÁgua Limpa - CODELCOSanta Rosa - Teck Cominco Santa Fé (Pará) - CODELCO
390
Project / Mine Production Company
AD
VAN
CED
PR
OJE
CT
EAR
LY S
TAG
E PR
OJE
CTS
TOTAL
MIN
E
Brazil has a large nickel project portfolio in different stages of development
7
9,1769,176
7,6837,683
4,1144,114
878878 3003001,1261,126 989989
595595 281281 1001000
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
Iro
n O
re
Nic
kel
Alu
min
a
Bau
xit
e
Alu
min
um
Co
pp
er
Go
ld
Ph
osp
hate
Zin
c
Nio
biu
m
US
$M 5,2925,292
• Brazil is the largest producer of iron ore and will consolidate its prominent position also in other commodities.
• Nickel is the next metal that Brazil will figure as the largest producer in the world around 2012-15.
• In aluminum the investments are really high and will consolidate the country as one of the largest producers.
• In copper the investments are high and will reduce the external dependence.
• In gold Brazil still lack basic infrastructure in the Amazon Region where is placed a very good potential for this metal.
Metal Production (Kton)Iron 176,900Nickel 204Alumina 7,600Bauxite 15,500Aluminum 70Copper 228Gold 0.037Phosphate 4,800Zinc 70Nióbium 10
The investment in mining projects between 2007-2011 will reach US$25B
0
100
200
300
400
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
BRAZIL
AUSTRALIARUSSIA
CANADA
INDONESIANEW CALEDONIA
JAPAN CUBA
MADAGASCAR
S. AFRICACOLOMBIA
The nickel projects that Brazil has in its portfolio may establish the country on top of the metal producers rank. The great majority of the projects are lateritic either for smelting (Ferro-nickel) or HPAL with production capacities over 25,000 ton / year each.
Brazil will lead world nickel production around 2012-15
8
Main nickel producers in the world present and future390
334
285
227194 190
174 173
62 57
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Brazil
Australi
a
Russia
Indonesia
New C
aledonia
Canad
aCuba
Japan
Madag
asca
r
South Africa
261244 234
167
9678 75
54 48 42
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Australi
a
Russia
Canad
aJa
pan
IndonesiaCuba
New C
aledonia
ColombiaBraz
il
Finland
2007 2015
• Brazil will lead the world nickel production raking if all the projects are constructed and perform according to their projected production capacity.
• Brazil is the country of large lateritic nickel deposits and several companies are developing its smelting (Ferro-nickel) and HPAL (High Pressure Acid Leach) projects.
• All the projects are located in well developed infrastructure with sufficient energy supply.
The leadership in production may change very soon after construction of the new projects
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Codem
in
America
no do
Bras
il
Niquela
ndia
Serra d
a Fort
aleza
TOTAL
Jaca
ré
Barro Alto
SemBon
é+Morr
o do Le
me
Onça-P
uma
Vermelh
o
Jaca
rezinh
o
São Jo
ão do
Piau
í
Serra d
o Tap
a
Santa
Rita
Santa
Fé + Iporá
Montes
Clar
os
Fe-Ni V
M
TOTAL
10 523 10 48
4540
20
47
4525
2525 15
2525 10 390
MINES PROJECTS
SULF
IDE
SULF
IDE SU
LFID
E
VM VM
ANGLO CVRD XSTR
ATA
MIR
ABEL
A
TEC
K C
OM
INC
O
AN
GLO
PRO
MET
ALIC
A
TON
(x 1
000)
A consistent project portfolio in Brazilsupports this production increment
9
74.1%
20.4%5.2% 0.3%
Nickel and cobalt commercial breakdown in Brazil
60.1%22.1%
5.5%
2.0%
4.4%
0.7%1.8%2.8% 0.6%
46.7%31.6%
0.4%2.5%
1.7% 0.5%
8.6%
2.0%
5.9%
ExportStainless steel
Steel and Ferro-alloysLocal TradersSuper alloys Chemicals
Non-ferrous alloysElectroplating Nickel parts
77.4%
16.6%
0.8%5.2%
ExportChemicals
Super alloysCutting tools
2005 2006N
ICK
ELC
OB
ALT
20,761 ton 21,228 ton
1,201 ton 889 ton
Nickel and cobalt export breakdown in Brazil
2005 2006
NIC
KEL
CO
BA
LT
78.6%
5.0%
1.4%7.94%
7.0%
74.5%
15.5%
6.9%3.0%
AsiaNorth America
South AfricaSouth AmericaEurope
57.7%34.4%
6.5% 1.4%
66.2%
27.3%
2.1%4.4%
12,483 ton 9,922 ton
929 ton 659 ton
10
Brazil Peru Chile Mexico
AustraliaCanada
0
2
4
6
8
10
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Mining Percentage of GDP
%
• The future of mining in Brazil is
ascendant and the new projects will
maintain a high growth rate.
• Comparing to other traditional
mining countries Brazil had a more
expressive growth in the mining
sector. If more basic data is
generated by Government this
growth rate will be even higher.
• Brazil needs better infrastructure
and competitive energy cost to
sustain this growth rate in mining.
• In base and precious metals Brazil
still have a large way to grow, but
a lot dependent on infrastructure
improvement in the Amazon
Region.
The mining percentage of GDP grown substantially in the late eight years
• Brazil is a stable country with a very entrepreneur community and it is worth investing in it.
• Mineral Exploration investment in Latin America and Brazil is very high along the years and the results start to show up.
• Brazil has a discrete participation in the nickel world, but the project portfolio will lead the country to the top of producers rank.
• A large number of projects is under construction in Brazil comprising several mineral commodities and investment totals US$25B.
• In nickel Brazil has a total of 11 advanced projects with great part of them under construction at the moment. Another series of early stage projects is under development and may be accelerated with the actual metal price cycle.
• Mining participation in GDP grown substantially in the past 08 years and the growth will continue positive in the country.
Conclusions